I think it's kind of telling. I'm sure that teams do have deeper analysis than what we have access to as fans, but with all the guys who have managed to parlay stats sites or blogs into NHL gigs, there's got to be something to what they are doing.

Maybe it's as simple as teams seeing these guys do good work with the limited access they have and figure that they can really shine with all the tools. The analogy I'd use is a race team scouts a guy driving dirt tracks in a home built car and hires him to drive the stock car with the STP logo on the hood.
- Jsaquella

I'm sure certain teams have more advanced analysis, but I'm skeptical that they have some vast array of analytics that dwarf the things we have access to. If that were the case, then why do these guys keep getting hired? If someone created something better then why hire an inferior data scientist?

I think you might be undervaluing the business of it. They need to hit a floor first of all, but most importantly, they have to drum up excitement. Getting pieces that could help make a competitive (but not really) team in the early years might be a chief concern for a team in a non-hockey market like Vegas. There's not exactly a rabid fan base there willing to have some excitingly bad first few years. It's why an expansion team there is so risky. Long term business model is what you just described, but these things can spiral out of control....then you have the Thrashers.
- Mononoke

I'm sure they'll do what they can to be good as soon as possible, but they're going to need guys to hang around.

Top pair of Amac-Girardi

I think a lot is going to depend on management. If it's some old school guy running the show, I can see them having interest in MacDonald because he's signed for multiple years and he has experience. They may view him as the perfect placeholder.

I imagine the expansion teams will show more interest in long term options/young talent. It's why I think Read wouldn't be attractive.
- PhillySportsGuy

They have to be at the salary floor, regardless of anything else. Loading up on the Cousins or Laughtons of the world won't do that. Guy like Read eats cap and provides a guy who can be a solid two way guy who plays all situations.

Even a guy like AMac is an acceptable depth guy on D and when they start play that deal will only have 3 years left. Again he's not great, but he is a guy that can eat minutes on a non contender & please the old heads.

I'm sure certain teams have more advanced analysis, but I'm skeptical that they have some vast array of analytics that dwarf the things we have access to. If that were the case, then why do these guys keep getting hired? If someone created something better then why hire an inferior data scientist?
- PhillySportsGuy

I doubt it's a treasure trove of unknown goodies, but these guys are tabulating stuff with hours of solo review after games themselves and codifying the info. Getting them in and freeing them up to really dig shows that there is value in those websites and the work that guys like Tulsky and Sam did on their own before landing league jobs

True. But in a non-win now situation, you could use the opportunity to develop Laughton or Cousins for those roles, rather than make a longer term commitment to a guy like Helm....or maybe see if a guy like Vern Fiddler takes a one year deal for less cash
- Jsaquella

I think there is a balance to pick-up pieces each year to build to a Cup winning team. I do believe your 3rd line center is going to need to be able to play more as a 2nd line center in today's NHL. In particular, the Flyers record with Coots out was pretty bad this year. Helm fits that role for me, especially if you can get him closer to $3 million/yr. As far as Laughton, I kind of like him at LW to use his speed on the forecheck and he has shown the ability to snap a wrist shot coming down the wing over the goalie's shoulder.

A possibility at the end of next season, worst case is to buy out Read. I believe he would count only around $1.2 million for two seasons.

They have to be at the salary floor, regardless of anything else. Loading up on the Cousins or Laughtons of the world won't do that. Guy like Read eats cap and provides a guy who can be a solid two way guy who plays all situations.

Even a guy like AMac is an acceptable depth guy on D and when they start play that deal will only have 3 years left. Again he's not great, but he is a guy that can eat minutes on a non contender & please the old heads.
- Jsaquella

I don't think reaching the floor will be a problem. There are always creative ways to do that. They'll need to overpay in FA to get anyone anyway. Do you know what happens if a team doesn't reach the cap floor? In the NBA, they just redistribute the remaining money to players already on the roster. So if they fall $5M short of the floor, $5M will be dispersed to the players on the roster. Not sure if the NHL uses a similar system.

I think there is a balance to pick-up pieces each year to build to a Cup winning team. I do believe your 3rd line center is going to need to be able to play more as a 2nd line center in today's NHL. In particular, the Flyers record with Coots out was pretty bad this year. Helm fits that role for me, especially if you can get him closer to $3 million/yr. As far as Laughton, I kind of like him at LW to use his speed on the forecheck and he has shown the ability to snap a wrist shot coming down the wing over the goalie's shoulder.

A possibility at the end of next season, worst case is to buy out Read. I believe he would count only around $1.2 million for two seasons.
- ravishingone

True, options abound. I'm not against Helm or Nielsen unless there's a significant cap hit. I think it's not a priority, but it can be a step that elevates them from fringe PO team to expected playoff team

He'll end each report with "more to come"
- PhillySportsGuy

that might be my favorite part about the whole thing.

I don't think reaching the floor will be a problem. There are always creative ways to do that. They'll need to overpay in FA to get anyone anyway. Do you know what happens if a team doesn't reach the cap floor? In the NBA, they just redistribute the remaining money to players already on the roster. So if they fall $5M short of the floor, $5M will be dispersed to the players on the roster. Not sure if the NHL uses a similar system.
- PhillySportsGuy

In the NHL, the floor is hard, just like the cap.

They can overpay in FA, but at the same time, they can also add guys like Read or MacDonald and hope to get a spark and then possibly flip them when they get close to UFA & they can get some return for them.

They'll be sure to grab guys like Laughts or Cousins, but other teams may be forced to protect guys they'd rather not and expose better young players. Hell, who knows, maybe I'm just being a wishful thinker

I think a lot of it has to do with these sites being a bit of a bridge from old school to new school. These guys have been fans all their life and started a website dedicated to hockey. That's an easier sell than hiring a bunch of geniuses who don't know as much about the sport.
- PhillySportsGuy

Ian Anderson, who oversees the Flyers analytics, was a part of the Caps for almost a decade doing something not even related to analytics....it was business oriented. Then he went to Northwestern University online, got his degree, and now he is a part of the Flyers. It's a weird route for a lot of these positions.

I'm sure a lot of it is ego driven. Having a bunch of people with PhDs in Statistics or whatnot running around your organization gives the old boys an uncomfortable feeling. Looking it up just now, one of the founders of War-on-Ice was a PhD candidate from Carnegie Mellon. But they can do all the data work they want -- the GM is the one who needs to understand it. Being fed secondhand information that you barely grasp is an uncomfortable feeling. And with this new wave of front office shakeups hiring people involved in analytics, it's a more uncomfortable feeling. There's a whole lot more to GMing than just data collection and interpretation, but someone who can at least hold their own intellectually with the stat boys while mastering the business end while loving the game is about the best you can get. Hinkie?

Really, a GM doesn't have to be a stats guru. He just has to know how to use the resources his stats gurus provide. An open ear and an open mind.

In the NHL, the floor is hard, just like the cap.

They can overpay in FA, but at the same time, they can also add guys like Read or MacDonald and hope to get a spark and then possibly flip them when they get close to UFA & they can get some return for them.

They'll be sure to grab guys like Laughts or Cousins, but other teams may be forced to protect guys they'd rather not and expose better young players. Hell, who knows, maybe I'm just being a wishful thinker
- Jsaquella

I think Amac is certainly plausible because of his term. I just don't think they'll want Read because he'll only have a year left.

The only concern I have is the defensemen. I don't think losing Read, Cousins or Laughton is going to really hurt the team. It will be a minor inconvenience. Losing MDZ, Morin or Gudas would hurt.

this golden state/cleveland game has actually been pretty damn entertaining.

I think Amac is certainly plausible because of his term. I just don't think they'll want Read because he'll only have a year left.

The only concern I have is the defensemen. I don't think losing Read, Cousins or Laughton is going to really hurt the team. It will be a minor inconvenience. Losing MDZ, Morin or Gudas would hurt.
- PhillySportsGuy

Agreed, 100%. Those three are, if not core pieces, then vital secondary pieces. It's going to be interesting to see the cap hits for Gudas and MDZ moving forward.

In the case of Read vs AMac, Read may be more attractive because he might be re-signable or as a pending UFA, may be attractive as a trade chip-especially if he is playing well and producing.

Ian Anderson, who oversees the Flyers analytics, was a part of the Caps for almost a decade doing something not even related to analytics....it was business oriented. Then he went to Northwestern University online, got his degree, and now he is a part of the Flyers. It's a weird route for a lot of these positions.

I'm sure a lot of it is ego driven. Having a bunch of people with PhDs in Statistics or whatnot running around your organization gives the old boys an uncomfortable feeling. Looking it up just now, one of the founders of War-on-Ice was a PhD candidate from Carnegie Mellon. But they can do all the data work they want -- the GM is the one who needs to understand it. Being fed secondhand information that you barely grasp is an uncomfortable feeling. And with this new wave of front office shakeups hiring people involved in analytics, it's a more uncomfortable feeling. There's a whole lot more to GMing than just data collection and interpretation, but someone who can at least hold their own intellectually with the stat boys while mastering the business end while loving the game is about the best you can get. Hinkie?

Really, a GM doesn't have to be a stats guru. He just has to know how to use the resources his stats gurus provide. An open ear and an open mind.
- Mononoke

Forever my bae.

this golden state/cleveland game has actually been pretty damn entertaining.
- stayinthefnnet

Not for 2Real

omg, it would be amazing to see him go 0/2

Agreed, 100%. Those three are, if not core pieces, then vital secondary pieces. It's going to be interesting to see the cap hits for Gudas and MDZ moving forward
- Jsaquella

Assuming they keep Ghost, Morin, Gudas and MDZ, would you risk letting MDZ get to ufa in order to protect the others or would you look to lock him up now and if you lose one, you lose one? Or look to move Morin or Gudas this offseason?

Not for 2Real

omg, it would be amazing to see him go 0/2
- Mononoke

0% chance GS would lose at home in a game 7 unless an injury occurred

True, options abound. I'm not against Helm or Nielsen unless there's a significant cap hit. I think it's not a priority, but it can be a step that elevates them from fringe PO team to expected playoff team
- Jsaquella

The recent Cup winners have been in the playoffs pretty much each year. I think it is very important for this team to make the playoffs again this year. I know Hexy isn't going to give a 30 year old UFA a 5 year deal, but I see how Lombardi started to build the Kings through free agency as some of his young core that was drafted started to mature. We may be a year early in that process with the Flyers.

Not for 2Real

omg, it would be amazing to see him go 0/2
- Mononoke

he's usually the one who will bullpoop basketball with me here and there. i'm not a huge NBA guy per se, but its still enjoyable. its hard for me to get very on board with the league as a whole simply because you basically knew it was going to be these 2 teams here again from the start. but the game of basketball itself is incredible. this series has just stunk primarily because the games have been blowouts either way.

but hanging that first 0/1 was pretty god damn gleeful.

0% chance GS would lose at home in a game 7 unless an injury occurred
- PhillySportsGuy

yeah. i cant see that happening either.

cleveland is playing about as well offensively as they can. GS is down green. and GS is still only 2 possessions from being tied in this game as it stands.

Assuming they keep Ghost, Morin, Gudas and MDZ, would you risk letting MDZ get to ufa in order to protect the others or would you look to lock him up now and if you lose one, you lose one? Or look to move Morin or Gudas this offseason?
- PhillySportsGuy

It would depend a good deal on how MDZ & Gudas play this season & what the cap commitment to Gudas was moving forward. If MDZ plays like he has since joining the Flyers, I'd hate to risk him to UFA-however, I'd be open to maybe making a deadline deal that netted me a return and freed up a potential protection slot.

If Gudas' play was a mirage, then I'd rather use the slot to protect MDZ and open Gudas to the expansion process. It's a time sensitive question, but it's not an immediately pressing one

yeah. i cant see that happening either.

cleveland is playing about as well offensively as they can. GS is down green. and GS is still only 2 possessions from being tied in this game as it stands.
- stayinthefnnet

Green is probably the Warriors most important player in this series

this golden state/cleveland game has actually been pretty damn entertaining.
- stayinthefnnet

if only draymond didn't receive a bs suspension

The recent Cup winners have been in the playoffs pretty much each year. I think it is very important for this team to make the playoffs again this year. I know Hexy isn't going to give a 30 year old UFA a 5 year deal, but I see how Lombardi started to build the Kings through free agency as some of his young core that was drafted started to mature. We may be a year early in that process with the Flyers.
- ravishingone

True. Expansion is a monkey wrench that Lombardi didn't have to sweat. There's potential benefits and potential risks. Maybe a team takes a guy who is overpriced a bit and helps your cap. Or maybe you have to leave a kid with potential exposed, and end up losing him.

It would depend a good deal on how MDZ & Gudas play this season & what the cap commitment to Gudas was moving forward. If MDZ plays like he has since joining the Flyers, I'd hate to risk him to UFA-however, I'd be open to maybe making a deadline deal that netted me a return and freed up a potential protection slot.

If Gudas' play was a mirage, then I'd rather use the slot to protect MDZ and open Gudas to the expansion process. It's a time sensitive question, but it's not an immediately pressing one
- Jsaquella

So you'd only go 1 year with Gudas this offseason?