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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: How Much Does The Goalie Matter?
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SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jun 10 @ 10:08 PM ET
The part in bold is where your "plan" completely unravels. That would mean that Toews or Kane would have to be injured. If they're not, then how do you get one of them on LTIR? The team just can't stick them on LTIR for poops and giggles.

Further, if one of the two actually ended up on LTIR as you suggest, then you have to hope that the team is in position to make the playoffs. Beyond that, you have to hope that the loss of one of the two doesn't sink the team.

In addition, the team has to have the assets to make a trade with this supposed cap room you're suggesting. By my count, the trade-able asset pool right now is not as full as it was in February 2015. Picking up "playoff caliber" assets is not cheap by any means.

Granted, what happened to Kane in 2015 and the cap room provided from that injury was a perfect storm of events. However, this plan has too many variables to even be suggested as a viable idea. In sum, you're trying to count on lightning to strike twice at a specific place and time. Stan Bowman is not Doc Brown and Marty McFly rolled into one.

- EKB13


Easy. Have Toews "trip" and fall down by himself near the boards late in the 3rd period of a game thats already decided, a slight "bang" of the head, a bit of academy award acting, a slow hobbled skate off the ice, and then POOF! "Concussion like symptoms, out indefinitely". It can be done.
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 10 @ 10:18 PM ET
He was front loaded? .....I had forgotten about Savard. I liked his game way back when he was a Bruin.
- Mr Ricochet


Has Savard even played the last 3-4 season? Isn't this another cap dump trade like Pronger-- both on LTIR?

Of the 'core' 19-88-2-7-4-81 & 50-- IMO Crawford is the only one that is replaceable and therefore reluctantly expendable-- because they will need to resign Panarin-- and maybe try to keep Shaw-- (but also concerned about his health moving forward)

PLUS Crawford has a concussion history and what some called vertigo symptoms last season-- I think Crawford is an elite goalie but I believe that the Hawks have gotten the most they will out of that asset--- now because of the cap and parity the NHL seeks-- the Hawks will be forced to trade another drafted asset that they developed-- Seabrook and Crawford in the same draft-- so he has been in the organization for a long time--
pjm901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 12.28.2014

Jun 10 @ 11:43 PM ET
Priority number one needs to be getting rid of Bickell. Unless Shaw comes back cheap I would let him walk and hope that Hartman or someone else can step into his spot. I wouldn't trade Crawford unless that enables getting a first line LW or top 4 D.
falseprophet93
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.26.2015

Jun 11 @ 1:59 AM ET
Priority number one needs to be getting rid of Bickell. Unless Shaw comes back cheap I would let him walk and hope that Hartman or someone else can step into his spot. I wouldn't trade Crawford unless that enables getting a first line LW or top 4 D.
- pjm901

I agree with you, Crow isn't untouchable but the offer to trade him has to be pretty good. You can argue that having a dominant defense or strong offense driven by effective puck possession can take your team to a Championship.

Just look at the current Final, Penguins have maybe the league's most talented offense, hiding their defensive deficiencies. And the Sharks have a truly dominant top 4 on defense, which covers up the team's young goalie and sets their offense up more effectively.

All in all the Finals haven't displayed elite goaltending, it's just two solid net minders and two teams with strong offensive or defensive cores. The Hawks could and should do the same.
Hawks_49
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 04.28.2015

Jun 11 @ 7:13 AM ET
I agree with you, Crow isn't untouchable but the offer to trade him has to be pretty good. You can argue that having a dominant defense or strong offense driven by effective puck possession can take your team to a Championship.

Just look at the current Final, Penguins have maybe the league's most talented offense, hiding their defensive deficiencies. And the Sharks have a truly dominant top 4 on defense, which covers up the team's young goalie and sets their offense up more effectively.

All in all the Finals haven't displayed elite goaltending, it's just two solid net minders and two teams with strong offensive or defensive cores. The Hawks could and should do the same.

- falseprophet93


The Penguins have severely outshot the Sharks in this series. The high danger scoring chances are severely in favor of Pittsburgh as well. The only reason the Sharks are still alive is because of the elite goaltending they are getting from Jones. In the Sharks two wins, Jones has 84 saves on 88 shots. In game 1 he kept the Sharks in the game as a barrage of shots came at him.

Jones has saved 167 out of 179 shots for a .933 save percentage. He has not allowed more than 3 goals in a game in the finals. Without him, the Sharks would have been done in 4 games.



ikeane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jun 11 @ 7:53 AM ET
I saw the hawks have 13% (7 players) of the total number of NMCs in the league. With the expansion draft coming in the next year or so I am wondering if one of Chicago's NMCs is a candidate to move.
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jun 11 @ 9:17 AM ET
@NJDevils

#NJDevils acquire Marc Savard, 2nd-round draft pick from Florida for forwards Graham Black, Paul Thompson.

- DarthKane

Looks like the Panthers have a decent amount of cap space. Wonder if they are looking to lock up one of their younger forwards and Campbell? Soupy signs there and that's another FA off the market. Just curious because some of the "internet reports" say the Hawks are interested. Let's see what happens.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Jun 11 @ 9:21 AM ET
Priority number one needs to be getting rid of Bickell. Unless Shaw comes back cheap I would let him walk and hope that Hartman or someone else can step into his spot. I wouldn't trade Crawford unless that enables getting a first line LW or top 4 D.
- pjm901



Considering that Bowman's "hands are tied" yet again concerning Bickell there is no chance a "good deal" will happen. The Hawks had to ship off a top D prospect just to "get rid" of Sharpie, a guy who could actually play. The Hawks additionally took salary back in that trade, for two players that were jettisoned, trading one of them for another guy who couldn't play where salary was retained (yet again) by the Hawks.

the master of those moves provides no confidence Bickell is going to be moved for ANYTHING remotely palatable ... I expect Bowman will send off TT, the 1 or 2 good prospects left in the org and and a picks just to get rid of Bickell. Then the Hawks will probably retain salary on top of that.
mlindsay
Montreal Canadiens
Location: ON
Joined: 06.16.2010

Jun 11 @ 9:49 AM ET
Have you all seen the "Vegas Treatment" that ESPN gave the Hawks logo (and others)...
http://www2.tsn.ca/bardow...tely+incredible&id=581996

Awesome. lol
Chief4Feathers
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Post-Tank-alyptic World
Joined: 12.23.2010

Jun 11 @ 10:24 AM ET
Considering that Bowman's "hands are tied" yet again concerning Bickell there is no chance a "good deal" will happen. The Hawks had to ship off a top D prospect just to "get rid" of Sharpie, a guy who could actually play. The Hawks additionally took salary back in that trade, for two players that were jettisoned, trading one of them for another guy who couldn't play where salary was retained (yet again) by the Hawks.

the master of those moves provides no confidence Bickell is going to be moved for ANYTHING remotely palatable ... I expect Bowman will send off TT, the 1 or 2 good prospects left in the org and and a picks just to get rid of Bickell. Then the Hawks will probably retain salary on top of that.

- kwolf68


Barring a miracle - I believe your trade scenario is correct in terms of how much it will take to dump Bickel's contract. I'd hope the Hawks either find a way to work around it while retaining him in the minors for this last year - or at least buy him out and suffer a lower cap hit for an extended amount of time.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jun 11 @ 10:37 AM ET
Considering that Bowman's "hands are tied" yet again concerning Bickell there is no chance a "good deal" will happen. The Hawks had to ship off a top D prospect just to "get rid" of Sharpie, a guy who could actually play. The Hawks additionally took salary back in that trade, for two players that were jettisoned, trading one of them for another guy who couldn't play where salary was retained (yet again) by the Hawks.

the master of those moves provides no confidence Bickell is going to be moved for ANYTHING remotely palatable ... I expect Bowman will send off TT, the 1 or 2 good prospects left in the org and and a picks just to get rid of Bickell. Then the Hawks will probably retain salary on top of that.

- kwolf68


I don't believe they had to do that trade to move Sharp, I never will.

I think there were teams (MTL, BOS) who could have used him badly and gave up a low round pick for him.

I still believe that they knew they were losing Oduya, and they did a trade that gave them what they thought could replace Oduya, and get a bottom 6 winger with some grit. They wanted to repeat, were all in on it, and it blew up in their face.

Time to regroup
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jun 11 @ 10:37 AM ET
Barring a miracle - I believe your trade scenario is correct in terms of how much it will take to dump Bickel's contract. I'd hope the Hawks either find a way to work around it while retaining him in the minors for this last year - or at least buy him out and suffer a lower cap hit for an extended amount of time.
- Chief4Feathers

The way I perceive it is it all points towards a buyout. I hope the Hawks believe that there is no reason to give up any further prospects/picks just to unload him. If he is traded, odds are salary comes back so it seems like a wash. Probably better off living with the buyout recapture of 1.5 this year and 1 next year.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 11 @ 10:55 AM ET
I'll be damned if I didn't just run into the most timely article as far as this topic and blog is concerned. A must read for anyone who follows or plays the sport no matter the position written by Ben Scrivens........Be great if any goalies can weigh in.

The Players Tribune/Ben Scrivens Please Don't Call Me Athletic

Notice how he mentions "it's not how but if" you stop the puck. For me this is what I've come to as far as Crawford, and posted as much as for why many don't consider him elite, because of his sometimes awkwardly scrambly style. The guy just stops pucks, no points for style, he's just a puck stopper. Much like Hasek (and no I'm not putting Crow in his league).

Many will give a crossed eye when you tell them the goalie needs to be the best skater on the team as some of us were lucky enough to be told at 8-9-10 years old. Scrivens comes back to that over and over. Some remember me posting that goaltending is a 3 legged stool, SKATING=balance/BALANCE=square/SQUARE=in control. Can't have one without the other and can't stop pucks "consistently" without the 3 legs of the stool. The three are married and the foundation is skating.

For those who haven't skated I've mentioned before that goaltending is a bit like shooting pool in that sure you can be a shot maker but if you don't set yourself up for the next shot your chances of making it are less so. Each successive shot is harder to make without setting yourself (in balance and square) for up the next one until you miss.

I'd like to mention the Bobrovsky sequence clip. Three fine saves but notice if the 4th were to come. It looks as though he may have gotten tangled with a forward after the 3rd save but I guarantee that Bob will take from that beauty display that he wasn't in POSITION for the 4th shot had it come, and file it in his mind.

And I have to add for shooters notice how Scrivens (an NHL goalie) mentions how important it is for the goalie to be set (in balance and square). If a goalie is set 90% + chance he's making that save, if he's not set the chances go way down. Getting set will take x amount of time, depending on the goalie and situation, so the less time given before the shot is taken the less chance to be set. The takeaway is it's not the 257 MPH slapper that takes 1-1/2 seconds to get off that has the best chance to beat a goalie it's the 74 MPH snapper/wrister that gets off in the blink of an eye BEFORE a goalie gets set.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 11 @ 11:06 AM ET
The Penguins have severely outshot the Sharks in this series. The high danger scoring chances are severely in favor of Pittsburgh as well. The only reason the Sharks are still alive is because of the elite goaltending they are getting from Jones. In the Sharks two wins, Jones has 84 saves on 88 shots. In game 1 he kept the Sharks in the game as a barrage of shots came at him.

Jones has saved 167 out of 179 shots for a .933 save percentage. He has not allowed more than 3 goals in a game in the finals. Without him, the Sharks would have been done in 4 games.

- Hawks_49


To paraphrase Tweek's excellent post, maybe Jones isn't elite (we'll know in 5 years not next week) but he had an elite performance in Game 5. I followed, concerning whether or not the 10th best goalie in the league can win a cup, that indeed the Jones performance was elite and you need to be a better than average goalie to have an elite performance, at least with any kind of consistency that would make you above average.

Love this series. The Pens are annihilating the Sharks in EVERY phase save for goaltending and Jones is a rebound machine that can't handle the puck.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 11 @ 11:25 AM ET
I have been all over the map on trading Crow or not . But watching last nights performance by Martin Jones just reminded me of how many times I watch Crow play games like that . Where I sat mouth open stunned by one after another super save in another pivotal playoff game . Crow is elite and comes at a more then reasonable price for a two time cup Champion . I now firmly believe he should be held onto . And also believe not much will happen this offseason except some much needed RR ,and moving Bickel one way or another .
- oldduffman


Some mention the Hawks didn't make any huge moves the year before they won a cup, and I'd add no real huge moves period besides moving guys due to the cap since the run.

Well with a core of Keith, Seabs, Crow, Kane, Toews, Hossa, Hammer you don't need to make any blockbusters to win cups, only fill in specific needs.

Now the cap is in full strangle mode, we all know the reasons, and it is possible management has rethought the "plan". Think it's unworkable cuz of a stagnant cap.
Maybe you can't have 7 core players with a basically stagnant cap they are thinking. Maybe Panarin and/or Shaw needs to part of the core and to do that you need to move one, or TWO, of the "old" core.

Add expansion and who can/can't be protected, NMC's, what is achievable as far as having a new plan, if there is one, and Crow would have to be looked at as a possible move.

So many moving parts just no way to prognosticate as I don't think the Hawks know what's possible as far as keeping the core intact and staying elite as constructed.



93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jun 11 @ 11:43 AM ET
Just read that Scott Powers thinks Panarin can end up getting a six year, $40 mil deal. Figured he would get at least $6 mil/season.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 11 @ 12:21 PM ET
Something to read about the Hawks from an outside perspective. Also scroll down to who may or may not be exposed/lost to the expansion draft. Columbus looks to lose a solid player and Detroilet must move Howard or they will lose Mrzak and the same might be said for Duck RFA Ansersen. What about TVR?.......Gonna be a lot of movement no matter what. http://www.dobberhockey.c...am-ward-and-more-june-11/
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 11 @ 12:53 PM ET
Just read that Scott Powers thinks Panarin can end up getting a six year, $40 mil deal. Figured he would get at least $6 mil/season.
- 93Joe


I wonder in hindsight if the Hawks would rather have Saad at 6M or Panarin at slightly higher?

Love what Panarin brings-- BUT I would take Saad--
DMChi2010
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jun 11 @ 12:57 PM ET
If the cap goes down, it'd be great to offer one more compliance buyout for each team.

Bye-bye Bickell, Dustin Brown, David Clarkson, etc....
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 11 @ 12:59 PM ET
If the cap goes down, it'd be great to offer one more compliance buyout for each team.

Bye-bye Bickell, Dustin Brown, David Clarkson, etc....

- DMChi2010


Agree-- and I'm still banging the drum on a draft / development cap exemption ONLY for players that a team drafts--develops-- to help offset the second contract jump on those who reach star status and will get paid as such---- i.e. in the Hawks case Bufyglien / Saad types that the Hawks couldn't re-sign because of the cap-- The next team that will get nail don this will be Oilers-- too many high picks not enough cap money
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jun 11 @ 1:44 PM ET
One thing that cannot be ignored is the significant drop off in 5 on 5 play and team D. This team has holes to fill, especially at the LW spot. If we think Kempny is going to be ok in a top 4 role, then we have to focus back on the forwards. With the expansion team/s coming, I dont think we can wait on moving a say, CC. Can Darling be a starter? Looks that way. If moving CC brings back say a top 6 LW, then that helps the over all team play. When this team is dialed in with its puck possession style, it helps the D and the goaltender.

The way this team wins is predicated on its puck possession ability. Fix that, and the other issues will get cleaned up as well. The loss of Sharp and then Saad really messed up this teams ability to play its possession style game. Two guy with skill, hands and speed. They left and we never really recovered. If Im Bowman, then Im looking for that speed/skill guy who can step in two a top 6 role on the left side. Would there be a drop off from CC to Darling? Sure. Growing pains? Sure.

But unless we can get back to being a force 5 on 5? Dunno...
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jun 11 @ 1:51 PM ET
Just read that Scott Powers thinks Panarin can end up getting a six year, $40 mil deal. Figured he would get at least $6 mil/season.
- 93Joe



If he comes back next year with a 20-30 goal season, you bet he will get that kind of money. All things considered, trying to keep him does not look good. Thats why I try to move CC now for another skilled winger we can develop/hang on to.
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Jun 11 @ 2:13 PM ET
I don't believe they had to do that trade to move Sharp, I never will.

I think there were teams (MTL, BOS) who could have used him badly and gave up a low round pick for him.

I still believe that they knew they were losing Oduya, and they did a trade that gave them what they thought could replace Oduya, and get a bottom 6 winger with some grit. They wanted to repeat, were all in on it, and it blew up in their face.

Time to regroup

- vabeachbear



They could've afforded Oduya if they just move sharp for picks. I think they wanted Oduya and Daley but couldn't move Bickell to clear space for Oduya. Daley in the bottom pairing providing offense from the back end would've been gravy. They didn't want to rely on 4 d men again like the year prior. Master plan failed when Bickell couldn't be moved. That's my theory anywAy.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 11 @ 2:27 PM ET
According to THN the projected floor is 57 million and as of today 13 teams are below that number. More than I thought and targets to move salary to. http://www.thehockeynews....w-70-million-next-season/

With the budget’s lower limit usually set around $16 million less than the ceiling, a safe bet for the floor would be around $57 million. As it stands, 13 teams are below $57 million in projected cap hit for the 2016-17 season, with the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes both below $40 million. The Coyotes, at a projected cap hit of $34.4 million, would have significant ground to make up to get to the salary floor
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 11 @ 3:37 PM ET
Is the question "How much does Crawford matter over Darling?

Then the answer is a lot, and bye Scottie you are on your way to Las Vegas...
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