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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: How Much Does The Goalie Matter?
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DMChi2010
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jun 10 @ 1:36 PM ET
Aside from the fact, TVR is a legit NHL defensemen. The Pens are doing just fine without a goalie of Crawford's caliber and their D core is mediocre outside of what Letang brings.

It is a hard cap. At the end of the day, you can't keep all of your big salaried players if the cap is not going to move upwards as projected. Was our D core in '10 that much better than it is now? Campbell was and is average in his own end at best. The third pairing was not anything to write home about.

To me it comes down to whose skill set is likely the easiest to potentially replace, with a minimum turnaround, from inside the organization. The answer it Crawford. I am not knocking him. He is arguably a top 5 NHL goalie. There is a significantly less chance of finding a replacement for 88, 19, 7, 2, or 4 anytime soon.

We really need a top 6 wing and at least another 4/5 defensemen. If we go into next year and our team is dominated 5 on 5 again we won't make a deep playoff run. No matter who is in net. It puts a lot more pressure on the D core and we will see the big 3 wear down again before playoff time. The Hawks dominating possession game of past cup runs took pressure off the D. There is a lot less wear and tear when you are spending more time in the ozone and less time running around and getting pounded in your own zone.

- bhawks2241


2010 D: Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Campbell, Sopel, Boynton/Hendry (yikes)
2013 & 2014 D: Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Oduya, Leddy, good Rozsival
2015 D: Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Oduya, TVR, the ashes of Kimmo Timonen, the broken ankle of Rozsival, Rundterrible, Cummer

Yeah... I think I like the 2013 team D best.
purepone
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Long Island, NY
Joined: 07.24.2014

Jun 10 @ 1:38 PM ET
I get it. I just think the Hawks standing pat and hoping rest is the answer to another cup is wishful thinking. This roster, minus Laad, plus more rest won't get it done. We don't have the assets to get another Laad at trade deadline either. I'd rather move a big salary and take the risk versus stand pat and lose in the first two rounds. If Shaw is signed there is no cap room to add talent to this team. This isn't a Cup team as currently constructed. That is reality.

Although maybe Hossa finds a second fountain of youth and becomes the 30 plus goal scorer of old.

- bhawks2241


To further note, I would like to hope that most to all of us on here agree with that statement. This team is playoff prepared, but not a Cup winning team....For now.

With that said, Ive honestly been adamant on moving Crawford strictly for the reason of cap and cap alone. I have always been a fan of Crawford since our Khabibulin days when he was deep in Rockford. But, at his AAV, he is IMO (and Bickell is a given,) the most expendable piece we have. All this Kane being traded convo is nonsense. You dont sign Toews and Kane at those price tags and then say we gotta move one. That would only make StanBo look like a moron, regardless of his ROI if he moved Kaner. Not to mention, Kane is on another level, and is as of right now a top 3 player in the league.

Move CC for picks/ top 4/5 D. Dump Bickell if possible, if not buy him out, and use the cash to resign F and hopefully find a guy to play on Tazers left.
vshun
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Potomac Falls, VA
Joined: 06.04.2015

Jun 10 @ 2:17 PM ET
And you don't have to give TT a raise to $3.5M the next year because he scores more than Casey Czikias. The only ones to re-up are Panarin and Shaw.


- DMChi2010

And TVR, and Darling and probably some others we miss. If all those are let go and replaced with inferior Euro/AHL subs- the team will get progressively worse year after year and drop from even playoff contention.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 10 @ 2:19 PM ET
found this on the other website: HF

Jay Zawaski , a Hawks beat writer stated on the Hub Arkush show that this is rubbish.

He also stated Saad and Leddy, two of Shaws close friends, told him to take less and stay with the Hawks. Saad also regrets not having any input in negotiations.

This might be a good sign of a Bickell buy out and a cheap Shaw and possibly a cheap Campbell sign for one more run at a Cup. And another reason players want to play in Chicago.

It's on the 670 web site

- kmw4631


Nice, thanks for posting........... I'd add easy for Leddy and Saad to give this advice as they drive to the bank in their Brinks truck.

Love Shaw not only cuz he's a Hawk and a helluva player but what he stands for. The kid is what's right with sport and there aren't enough of them.

If it's a difference between 9 and 10 million you can leave a mil per on the table and never know it's missing but if it's between 2.5 and 4 mil per take the cash and play in AZ cuz the helter skelter style he plays at his size he might only see one big payday.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 10 @ 2:35 PM ET
How many times could you say that about the Hawks?

What if, what if

- Maggie


Great points. The difference between winning and losing among the elite NHL teams is razor thin.

Luckily the Bowman(s) look at the big picture. The fact that they were eliminated by a very good Blues team in the last few minutes of the 7th game will not cause them to make knee jerk reactions like most of the ones the knuckleheads (fans) on this blog (or any blog) suggest.

They are up against the hard cap. They have been for the last few years and they will be every year for the next few years. So are a lot of teams, any team with some experience and some really good players is up against the cap. The Bowman's will deal with it and maneuver as best they can within those constraints. My guess is the team will be very similar to last years team, very good and at the cap level, with just a little room for a TDL trade if needed.

Some of the bloggers are more fatigued than some of the players and for the same reason, they have not had much of a break in between seasons. Sit back and enjoy the Summer.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 10 @ 2:40 PM ET
First of all I'm not sure CC is elite after watching Murray and Jones.
- Maggie


Maggie neither of these goalies have won a thing. Soon one will have won ONE cup. That is certainly no small feat but it's a small body of work. Tell me you're elite after you've won multiple times or have been a top 4-5-6 goalie for 5 or so years.

Again, as I've posted many times the last month, of the last 6 cups 5 had an elite goalie, Crawford 2/Quick 2/Thomas 1, the exception being Nieme who played behind a powerhouse. But I'm of the opinion that year, 2010, the difference between the Sharks and Hawks was Nieme outplayed Nobakov in the Semis.

Is Murray or Jones on their way to becoming elite or are they a Nieme? We'll know in 5 years, not next week.

IMO JJ's question goes deeper than the goalie or rephrase the question can you win a cup without an elite goalie? Is Lundqvist elite? Is Price elite? Is Holtby elite? Is Nieme elite? Was Rinne elite? ......

Asset allocation is my question cuz I think the 10th best goalie in the league can win if his team is good enough. As JJ mentioned the equipment is a big reason, the size of the goalies, the refusal to call obstruction, hooks, hacks, whacks, mugging, sticks and fists to the face/neck/back all means less shots from dangerous areas. Add the system to the equation too with shot blocking. I'm of the opinion that skaters are as protected today as goalies were in the 70's due to their equipment.

That said, gimme the elite goalie and a little bit less up front if I'm gambling. The percentages say so and I'm a quasi percentage player.
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jun 10 @ 2:58 PM ET
Crazy idea here:

What if the Hawks accept the fact that with the current roster and cap situation their only choice is to bite the bullet and go with what they have(say they at least find a way to bring back Shaw). No major changes.

Then.....after staying afloat for the first 4 months of the season, Toews or Kane get "injured" sometime in February. LTIR. Use all that extra cap space to fill in the roster holes and gain playoff caliber depth on D and at forward. Then lo and behold Toews/Kane comes back right in time for game 1 round 1 just like Kaner in 2015.

Might seem insane to actually plan for something like this to be your solution to the cap issues. But it just might work....
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 10 @ 3:04 PM ET
Great and thoughtful blog JJ. Was hoping there would be a goalie one fairly soon. One thing that always stands out to me is the Scotty Bowman train of thought... An elite defense with an above average goalie can win championships. Hard to say nowadays as Crawford has held the Hawks in it this year.

Watching the pens with Murray, they somewhat allude to what the Hawks seem to have wanted to do this year - An ok defense with 4 solid lines who can wheel and help out the defense and have a strong forecheck to where the defense is a collective effort. In a way, have the forward lines assist the weaker defensive pairs. The Penguins don't have an elite defense, but they are rolling 4 lines with a great forecheck. I think the Hawks can do without CC next year if they make an upgrade to 2/3 LW and a 4/5 D spot.

- 93Joe


Joe, the Detroilet Red Army entry has won ONE cup in the cap era. The equation has changed and wouldn't you think Scotty Bowman had input into Crow getting the 6 mil per contract?
Stu17
Los Angeles Kings
Location: If its Brown flush it down!, CA
Joined: 10.15.2013

Jun 10 @ 3:05 PM ET
Crazy idea here:

What if the Hawks accept the fact that with the current roster and cap situation their only choice is to bite the bullet and go with what they have(say they at least find a way to bring back Shaw). No major changes.

Then.....after staying afloat for the first 4 months of the season, Toews or Kane get "injured" sometime in February. LTIR. Use all that extra cap space to fill in the roster holes and gain playoff caliber depth on D and at forward. Then lo and behold Toews/Kane comes back right in time for game 1 round 1 just like Kaner in 2015.

Might seem insane to actually plan for something like this to be your solution to the cap issues. But it just might work....

- SimpleJack

If something very similar and sinister hadn't happened once already, I'd think your NVTS - nuts!!
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jun 10 @ 3:12 PM ET
If something very similar and sinister hadn't happened once already, I'd think your NVTS - nuts!!

- Stu17


Sinister maybe. But also perhaps borderline genius if they can pull it off(again).
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 10 @ 3:15 PM ET
Murray has been playing well for the Pens and their entire team seems to have come together at the right time. But the Pens stumbled into using Murray because of other goaltending injuries, it's not like their plan was to bench Fleury and go with the $600,000 rookie. The situation worked out in their favour, but that's the exception to the rule.

Winnipeg has low cost goaltending and that was a major weakness for them this year. The Islanders low cost goaltending didn't help them in the playoffs. Let's not forget what happened to Montreal after Price got injured.

- DarthKane


And he leapfrogged Zatkoff..............Read today that Murray was AHL goalie of the year. He's not like Hamburglar in Ottawa where he came out of nowhere and went on a freakish run. The kid is solid at minimum and is now showing as much in the NHL.
sofaking3
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 06.10.2016

Jun 10 @ 3:27 PM ET
While trading Crawford might allow for cap space, is there a viable option to replace him with? Darling could work, but then who is the backup? I am aware of Lars Johansson, but would he be ready?

What is the potential return? And would we have to take back cap hits?

Ideally a package of Crawford, Bickell and TT in exchange for usable assets (LW, D, a goalie) could work. What teams would make a trade for that package?
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jun 10 @ 3:29 PM ET
Joe, the Detroilet Red Army entry has won ONE cup in the cap era. The equation has changed and wouldn't you think Scotty Bowman had input into Crow getting the 6 mil per contract?
- Mr Ricochet

Hey Mr. R. Thanks for the input. I am not denying that times have changed and admittedly, I was thinking a little too far back, my apologies. They have changed as we have seen for the past 7-10 years. I personally think Crawford with his resume and cap hit is a pretty good bargain. A guy who steps up when the big light shines. I am not denying that and I believe he is an elite goalie. The point I was alluding to is that the cap is the problem. I think, as evidenced by this year's playoffs, most specifically the final, that a team can win with an average to above average goalie with a good and contributing all-around team defense.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jun 10 @ 3:34 PM ET
While trading Crawford might allow for cap space, is there a viable option to replace him with? Darling could work, but then who is the backup? I am aware of Lars Johansson, but would he be ready?

What is the potential return? And would we have to take back cap hits?

Ideally a package of Crawford, Bickell and TT in exchange for usable assets (LW, D, a goalie) could work. What teams would make a trade for that package?

- sofaking3



If Crawford is dealt I would want Darling to get shot at the #1 role, but I would hope Stan signs/trades for another goalie that could be the 1B. Maybe Reimer if he would sign a short term, reasonable deal.
sofaking3
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 06.10.2016

Jun 10 @ 3:38 PM ET
If Crawford is dealt I would want Darling to get shot at the #1 role, but I would hope Stan signs/trades for another goalie that could be the 1B. Maybe Reimer if he would sign a short term, reasonable deal.
- DarthKane


Reimer would be nice. Was not treated right here in Toronto. Plus he could be cheap enough to allow for Shaw to stay if they can only buyout Bickell.
RedFeather
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: alsip, IL
Joined: 02.03.2016

Jun 10 @ 3:46 PM ET
But the Pens stumbled into using Murray because of other goaltending injuries, it's not like their plan was to bench Fleury and go with the $600,000 rookie.
- DarthKane


Excellent point, sir. The 5.75 million goalie would be playing.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 10 @ 3:48 PM ET
Hey Mr. R. Thanks for the input. I am not denying that times have changed and admittedly, I was thinking a little too far back, my apologies. They have changed as we have seen for the past 7-10 years. I personally think Crawford with his resume and cap hit is a pretty good bargain. A guy who steps up when the big light shines. I am not denying that and I believe he is an elite goalie. The point I was alluding to is that the cap is the problem. I think, as evidenced by this year's playoffs, most specifically the final, that a team can win with an average to above average goalie with a good and contributing all-around team defense.
- 93Joe


Jesus Joe, why are you apologizing? Your posts are thoughtful and solid whether one agrees or not. Keep em coming.

Asset allocation, what's in the farm to replace big losses due to the cap, what is the system (5 man hair on fire skill/speed player defense , PITT, outscore the other guy , DAL, play methodical/precise ,SJ, do you build from the back out and draft that way, build from the forwards back and draft that way, draft the best available players and play to your team's strength however they turn out?

I do believe you can win with a 10th best goalie as I posted with the right system/team. But as mentioned if I'm gambling I'll take the better goalie and a bit less up front.............In other words IMO there is no right answer except to say you will never win with below average goaltending no matter how good the team in front of him is. I think you need at least above average goaltending to win a cup.


6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jun 10 @ 3:49 PM ET
A kid in his early 20's getting pressure from both his dad and his agent is very plausible. Especially if the kid is very impressionable and the dad has that "father knows best" mentality.
- EKB13


Eli, FWIW that's pretty much what I understand to be true. I can believe it because of the speed at which it transpired. From a GM perspective, it's bad enough having to eat poop from a player and agent. When some hockey dad starts in I can see a guy like Stan pulling the rip cord quickly.
Chief4Feathers
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Post-Tank-alyptic World
Joined: 12.23.2010

Jun 10 @ 3:51 PM ET
From the top of Mt. Should Be...

Bickel realizes he has nothing left - at least at the NHL-level - and prior to camp goes out on LTIR due to his knee(s), vertigo symptoms, or (insert ailment here).

He still receives his pay and the Hawks get some cap relief without a buy-out or horribly lopsided trade to jettison his contract.

C'mon Bicks - take this one for the team.
Stu17
Los Angeles Kings
Location: If its Brown flush it down!, CA
Joined: 10.15.2013

Jun 10 @ 3:53 PM ET
Sinister maybe. But also perhaps borderline genius if they can pull it off(again).
- SimpleJack

Well...yes
ikeane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jun 10 @ 3:55 PM ET
While trading Crawford might allow for cap space, is there a viable option to replace him with? Darling could work, but then who is the backup? I am aware of Lars Johansson, but would he be ready?

What is the potential return? And would we have to take back cap hits?

Ideally a package of Crawford, Bickell and TT in exchange for usable assets (LW, D, a goalie) could work. What teams would make a trade for that package?

- sofaking3

maybe Carolina for Lack, murphy/fleury, and skinner (retained salary)
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 10 @ 4:21 PM ET
Eli, FWIW that's pretty much what I understand to be true. I can believe it because of the speed at which it transpired. From a GM perspective, it's bad enough having to eat poop from a player and agent. When some hockey dad starts in I can see a guy like Stan pulling the rip cord quickly.
- 6628


Saad: wasn't there some issue with relatives in Syria that was one reason they decided to go for the money now?
333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Jun 10 @ 4:32 PM ET
From the top of Mt. Should Be...

Bickel realizes he has nothing left - at least at the NHL-level - and prior to camp goes out on LTIR due to his knee(s), vertigo symptoms, or (insert ailment here).

He still receives his pay and the Hawks get some cap relief without a buy-out or horribly lopsided trade to jettison his contract.

C'mon Bicks - take this one for the team.

- Chief4Feathers


Believe me, if the Hawks could put Bickell on LTIR, they would. The doc has to sign off on that, I would think.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 10 @ 4:35 PM ET
Believe me, if the Hawks could put Bickell on LTIR, they would. The doc has to sign off on that, I would think.
- 333inthe3rd


More than one, I would think - personal, team, league - I doubt it's as easy as people think to get someone onto LTIR - especially when there are major cap issues involved.

It's not just the he can't skate like he used to - he's gotta not a able to play at all.
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Jun 10 @ 4:42 PM ET
Crazy idea here:

What if the Hawks accept the fact that with the current roster and cap situation their only choice is to bite the bullet and go with what they have(say they at least find a way to bring back Shaw). No major changes.

Then.....after staying afloat for the first 4 months of the season, Toews or Kane get "injured" sometime in February. LTIR. Use all that extra cap space to fill in the roster holes and gain playoff caliber depth on D and at forward. Then lo and behold Toews/Kane comes back right in time for game 1 round 1 just like Kaner in 2015.

Might seem insane to actually plan for something like this to be your solution to the cap issues. But it just might work....

- SimpleJack





This should not be allowed. They should have fixed it already and had some sort of cap for playoff rosters so that you can't load up because of LTIR.
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