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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: How Much Does The Goalie Matter?
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breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jun 14 @ 6:05 PM ET
I wouldnt say it would be that crazy.Just about a Point per game player and 30 goals as a 24 year old? Yes some of that is the benefit of playing with Kane but he still scored 30 goals. Saad scored 23 and got 6 million a year. Obviously he is better on D but goals get big pay days. I could see someone saying we want to sign him through his prime and give him 7 years (most they can) to have him til he is 31ish? One of Scott Powers articles said that one source said that he could draw almost 8 million. He has freakish talent and when players like bolland are able to sell themselves for 5.5 million a year i dont think it is to far out to say someone would want Panarin for 7.5. This was his first year on smaller ice and he tore it up. He is only going to get better and that 30 goals is only going to climb for the next 7 years.
- kevndevries


It may just come down to what kind of season Panarin has this next year.

Saad did sign for 6 million but he was also 3 years younger (Farther yet from probably hitting his prime) and you can't discount his name being on the cup twice already. Winning the cup always increases your payday a bit too (see Kane/Toews). I think the Panarin camp may be pointing to someone like Tarasenko and his 7.5 million per year. Tarasenko is a bit more dangerous of a player offensively, but I don't think it is a terrible comparison. Bolland for 5.5 per year was just misguided in my opinion. Don't know how that guy got more than 4 million per year. Maybe if he had a good track record in the health dept, but he was clearly having so many issues already.

Anyway, I really agree, Panarin could get up to 7.5 million, but unless he really shines this year, I don't think he gets more than that.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 14 @ 6:27 PM ET
I think TVR could be in jeopardy.
- ItHossaGood


A rule that at least one defenseman and two forwards who have played 40 games in a season or 70 games over two seasons must be left unprotected and must be under contract for the 2017-18 season.

That means the hawks are going to play Viktor Svedberg 43 times this season and he fits the criteria as he and TVR and the big three are signed...and he is actaully going to be exempt.

Or it is a player that they trade for who played a lot last year and gets in the games to get him to 70....and I just don't see that happening, unless they pawn Bickell off and are planning on a younger dee at the bottom end.

or it is TvR.

Remember, teams can send prospects to Las Vegas to not draft TvR...but you can only protect a certain number of players.
The league will hold an expansion draft next June in which Las Vegas will select one player from each team, according to multiple reports. The expansion club must draft a minimum of three goaltenders, nine defensemen and 14 forwards. The league wants Las Vegas to be more competitive than previous expansion clubs, so the rules regarding player protection will be more stringent.

The Hawks can protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or an eight combination players and one goaltender. The second option is available for teams that are blue-line heavy and would rather expose extra forwards.

The big 3 defenders, Toews Kane Anisimov Shaw, TT or Kruger & Hossa is a required save -Panarin (exempt). So all of them go protected ...

If you take the other route, and save TVR you expose ONE of the forwards...plus the defender they acquire to fill the criteria if that is indeed the case...and the other forwards no listed above...

Remember, they only GET ONE Blackhawk...






blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jun 14 @ 7:04 PM ET
Hammer didnt give the discount. He signed an offer sheet with SJ. Hawks matched
- ikeane

He's talking about Hammer's current deal with the $4.1M cap hit. It has three years remaining. While the previous OS signed and matched turned out to be team friendly the second half of it, this 5-year deal IMO saved the 'Hawks a good $1.5M+ AAV.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jun 14 @ 7:10 PM ET
I know the buy-out period begins tomorrow, but is there a time limit that players must be bought out, or can that run all the way until the beginning of the season? Just wondering about if Bickell needs to be listed now, or if we can keep trying to trade him until the season is about to begin.
- spudrock512

If cup won 48+ hrs prior to, buyout period is 15-30 June only. CapGeek used to have a thorough explanation.

LTIR I believe makes most sense right before the season starts.
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jun 14 @ 7:15 PM ET
Actually that model is better today than pre-cap era. Back then you just pay the money for any goalie, so what, today you have to squeeze every nickel. That's if you think you can keep rotating in 2-3 mil goalies, win a cup, and move them once they are due 6 mil and replace them with another 2-3 mil goalie to win another cup.

I guess it can work with the right goalies, 3-4 of them in a 10 year period. That's hopin for a 7 on a lot of rolls of the dice.

- Mr Ricochet

Hello Mr. R. I believe you and I had a discussion about this not too long ago. The model holds more weight nowadays in my opinion because of the marginal cap increases. Rotating goalies would be difficult because it usually takes a couple years for a goalie to acclimated unless they are capable of playing at major levels. Lot of goalies are getting some good money but have won nothing - Price, Rinne, Lundqvist... Maybe those teams take a new outlook and look for the cheaper goalie and focus more on defense. Hard to say, but with the cap, a great D core and forechecking forwards seem like the best option.
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jun 14 @ 7:20 PM ET
Concerning trading Crawford-Which I never thought would be easy to accomplish.
Bowman will have a challenge because there will be a few goalies available making less money...

From what I hear one of the two in Anaheim will be moved.

- Al

Al, does Anaheim have anyone after Gibson and Andersson who can step up? Seems like they will have a bit of trouble with getting a adequate backup - assuming Gibson is their guy. Their D core seems pretty solid going forward. Lindholm, one of Vatanen or Fowler (whoever Bob Murray is higher on), Theodore, Despres, and Manson.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 14 @ 7:40 PM ET
Al, does Anaheim have anyone after Gibson and Andersson who can step up? Seems like they will have a bit of trouble with getting a adequate backup - assuming Gibson is their guy. Their D core seems pretty solid going forward. Lindholm, one of Vatanen or Fowler (whoever Bob Murray is higher on), Theodore, Despres, and Manson.
- 93Joe


Not sure about a backup but they usually find a Euro....
D core is solid and young but can't pay all of them ... Vatanen could get the short straw.

From what I hear a goalie and a dman will likely be moved.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 14 @ 8:29 PM ET
Al, does Anaheim have anyone after Gibson and Andersson who can step up? Seems like they will have a bit of trouble with getting a adequate backup - assuming Gibson is their guy. Their D core seems pretty solid going forward. Lindholm, one of Vatanen or Fowler (whoever Bob Murray is higher on), Theodore, Despres, and Manson.
- 93Joe


What I heard tonight is currently they don't have one in their system.
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 14 @ 8:29 PM ET
Concerning trading Crawford-Which I never thought would be easy to accomplish.
Bowman will have a challenge because there will be a few goalies available making less money...

From what I hear one of the two in Anaheim will be moved.

- Al


I agree-- even though Crawford is a 2x Cup winner-- its will be a buyers market this summer for goalies-- I am already minimizing my expectations of return IF Crawford is the one to be the sacrificial trade-- this cap stinks--

Interesting segment on MLB Network today about the importance of the 'Super Teams' in sport-- the standard bearer of excellence by which other teams are measured and aspire to-- Unfortunately in the cap hell - parity driven - poorly managed NHL-- No super teams will be allowed--

Personally I loved watching the various 'super teams or dynasty' teams like Montreal Canadiens -- Boston Bruins in early 70's -- the Islanders , Oilers Red Wings etc-- and looking for them to get toppled-- - these teams made the NHL great for me as a fan--

Anyone think that the Hawks current run ranks up there as a standard of a 'super team' in spite of the cap limitations? One can only imagine what they would have done on this run without cap limitation-- being able to keep players like Bufyglien, Saad, Ladd, Leddy, Campbell, Sharp etc-- Still as some have said this is the Golden Era of Blackhawks hockey--
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 14 @ 8:38 PM ET
I agree-- even though Crawford is a 2x Cup winner-- its will be a buyers market this summer for goalies-- I am already minimizing my expectations of return IF Crawford is the one to be the sacrificial trade-- this cap stinks--

Interesting segment on MLB Network today about the importance of the 'Super Teams' in sport-- the standard bearer of excellence by which other teams are measured and aspire to-- Unfortunately in the cap hell - parity driven - poorly managed NHL-- No super teams will be allowed--

Personally I loved watching the various 'super teams or dynasty' teams like Montreal Canadiens -- Boston Bruins in early 70's -- the Islanders , Oilers Red Wings etc-- and looking for them to get toppled-- - these teams made the NHL great for me as a fan--

Anyone think that the Hawks current run ranks up there as a standard of a 'super team' in spite of the cap limitations? One can only imagine what they would have done on this run without cap limitation-- being able to keep players like Bufyglien, Saad, Ladd, Leddy, Campbell, Sharp etc-- Still as some have said this is the Golden Era of Blackhawks hockey--

- jb3333


The cap is hurting teams with long term deals in place but actually the point system gives the illusion of more parity than there really is....Look at what teams have won the Cup the last 10 years....Lots of the same names.

Bettman looks at parity in his mind as everyone has a chance and boasts teams can't repeat...Unfortunately that doesn't sell the sport-Going by what has happened in the last 40 years the opposite has been true.

Stars and super teams promote popularity and the NHL does a poor job of marketing stars and takes pride teams can't repeat.
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Jun 14 @ 8:48 PM ET
The cap is hurting teams with long term deals in place but actually the point system gives the illusion of more parity than there really is....Look at what teams have won the Cup the last 10 years....Lots of the same names.

Bettman looks at parity in his mind as everyone has a chance and boasts teams can't repeat...Unfortunately that doesn't sell the sport-Going by what has happened in the last 40 years the opposite has been true.

Stars and super teams promote popularity and the NHL does a poor job of marketing stars and takes pride teams can't repeat.

- Al


Its shocking that Bettman can be so misguided to take pride in teams not being able to repeat-- Add that to wasting the most marketable thing they have in the NHL-- its heritage as well as the young stars-- and sadly they are OVER using the outdoor game to the point that it has lost its luster-- whats next Bettman? I think Vegas is going to be a fatal mistake for him and the NHL--
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jun 14 @ 9:05 PM ET
My worry is ,losing that in Shaw will hurt the Hawks as well.

No doubt, just a matter of how badly.
I think they will try very hard to keep him.

- Al


Hard to say, I was able to watch a lot of Michigan games this year (just happened to be in my package). Really like Tyler Motte, he may need a year in Rockford, maybe not. I see him as a more discipline "Shaw" that can score, unselfish and seems drawn to where the puck is going to be.
matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Jun 14 @ 9:07 PM ET
I have a feeling that this whole static/lower cap era we are moving into will ultimately have its intended effect of depressing top end salaries and making GMs think twice about their spending.

Until the next labor dispute is allowed to happen.

- Return of the Roar


I think the long run impact will be most felt by the middle tier players. Stars will always get paid and there will always be room on rosters for minimum salary players; it is the players in the middle that get squeezed down.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 9:21 PM ET
A rule that at least one defenseman and two forwards who have played 40 games in a season or 70 games over two seasons must be left unprotected and must be under contract for the 2017-18 season.

That means the hawks are going to play Viktor Svedberg 43 times this season and he fits the criteria as he and TVR and the big three are signed...and he is actaully going to be exempt.

Or it is a player that they trade for who played a lot last year and gets in the games to get him to 70....and I just don't see that happening, unless they pawn Bickell off and are planning on a younger dee at the bottom end.

or it is TvR.

Remember, teams can send prospects to Las Vegas to not draft TvR...but you can only protect a certain number of players.
The league will hold an expansion draft next June in which Las Vegas will select one player from each team, according to multiple reports. The expansion club must draft a minimum of three goaltenders, nine defensemen and 14 forwards. The league wants Las Vegas to be more competitive than previous expansion clubs, so the rules regarding player protection will be more stringent.

The Hawks can protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or an eight combination players and one goaltender. The second option is available for teams that are blue-line heavy and would rather expose extra forwards.

The big 3 defenders, Toews Kane Anisimov Shaw, TT or Kruger & Hossa is a required save -Panarin (exempt). So all of them go protected ...

If you take the other route, and save TVR you expose ONE of the forwards...plus the defender they acquire to fill the criteria if that is indeed the case...and the other forwards no listed above...

Remember, they only GET ONE Blackhawk...

- wiz1901


This!! Along with head scratchers like playing Mash we're gonna see players getting ice time, all over the league, that makes you wonder why and the expansion draft is gonna be the answer.

Good point Wiz. I think we'll read about this regularly as the season progresses.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 9:22 PM ET
If he wants anything north of $5.5 he is gone after this next season.
- Return of the Roar


Speaking today would you swap out Panarin for one of the established core? Meaning move one of them to make room for Panarin?
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 9:24 PM ET
Hard to say, I was able to watch a lot of Michigan games this year (just happened to be in my package). Really like Tyler Motte, he may need a year in Rockford, maybe not. I see him as a more discipline "Shaw" that can score, unselfish and seems drawn to where the puck is going to be.
- walleyeb1


I'd add he's a better skater than Shaw as well. That said he's got a long way to go to bring to the NHL all the things Shaw brings......

Great prospect and I'm glad he's in the system.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 14 @ 9:27 PM ET
The cap is hurting teams with long term deals in place but actually the point system gives the illusion of more parity than there really is....Look at what teams have won the Cup the last 10 years....Lots of the same names.

Bettman looks at parity in his mind as everyone has a chance and boasts teams can't repeat...Unfortunately that doesn't sell the sport-Going by what has happened in the last 40 years the opposite has been true.

Stars and super teams promote popularity and the NHL does a poor job of marketing stars and takes pride teams can't repeat.

- Al


It may not be as good for the league as Bettman thinks, but the cap has brought a measure of parity to the league.

In the 11 seasons since the cap was negotiated in:

7 different Cup winners
15 different teams in the final - 1/2 of the league has made the final in the last 11 seasons.
matt_ahrens
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Carlos, CA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Jun 14 @ 9:28 PM ET
I don't, although I do know buying out a player is the last resort. A GM then has to look at a mistake on the books for what could be years. My guess is they were hoping Bickell could play well enough to have some trade value.
- Al


I wonder about keeping him and see if anyone bites on him at the trade deadline as part of a package for a higher paid rental. Might need to package a prospect too but Stan has shown willingness to do that in the past.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 9:41 PM ET
It may not be as good for the league as Bettman thinks, but the cap has brought a measure of parity to the league.

In the 11 seasons since the cap was negotiated in:

7 different Cup winners
15 different teams in the final - 1/2 of the league has made the final in the last 11 seasons.

- StLBravesFan


Good point....... But the last 4 winners are repeat winners during the cap era.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 14 @ 9:47 PM ET
Good point....... But the last 4 winners are repeat winners during the cap era.
- Mr Ricochet


Yes - but that didn't fit my thesis.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 9:50 PM ET
Yes - but that didn't fit my thesis.
- StLBravesFan


You know what, until you posted I didn't realize how many different teams made the Finals until I looked it up. Really it does show some parity although you could make a case that due to the new playoff format the best teams aren't always in the Finals.

List of teams in the Finals (cap was instituted in 2006). https://en.wikipedia.org/..._of_Stanley_Cup_champions
Chief4Feathers
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Post-Tank-alyptic World
Joined: 12.23.2010

Jun 14 @ 10:16 PM ET
What is sad is that I think Bickell is a really good guy and human being. We on this board blame him a lot for his cap ills. To what extent his injuries are his fault? We'll never know. Did he "float"? Yes. I always appreciated his charitable efforts and will associate him with the golden era of Hawks hockey, if he was but a shooting star in 2013.

Agreed. The Detroit series in 2013 - Bickell plasters Kronwal into the boards - then shortly after Hawks score. That was THE turning point in the series - with the Hawks digging themselves out of the hole and winning in seven.

Playoff Bickell was awesome.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Jun 14 @ 10:20 PM ET
When is the NHLPA meeting to decide on whether to use the salary cap escalator?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 14 @ 10:33 PM ET
You know what, until you posted I didn't realize how many different teams made the Finals until I looked it up. Really it does show some parity although you could make a case that due to the new playoff format the best teams aren't always in the Finals.

List of teams in the Finals (cap was instituted in 2006). https://en.wikipedia.org/..._of_Stanley_Cup_champions

- Mr Ricochet


Compare to the NBA - last 11 seasons (including this year):

9 teams have made the finals
6 teams have won the championship (assuming Golden State closes it out this year).
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jun 14 @ 10:38 PM ET


Agreed. The Detroit series in 2013 - Bickell plasters Kronwal into the boards - then shortly after Hawks score. That was THE turning point in the series - with the Hawks digging themselves out of the hole and winning in seven.

Playoff Bickell was awesome.

- Chief4Feathers

If I may add, not saying you're incorrect, but Seabrook going to the box to calm Toews can be added to the turning point list for that series.
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