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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: How Much Does The Goalie Matter?
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ikeane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jun 14 @ 4:44 PM ET
Hawks are fortunate one player gave them a significant home team discount-Hammer. In the vast majority of cases they don't exist and for good reason.
- Al

Hammer didnt give the discount. He signed an offer sheet with SJ. Hawks matched
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 4:45 PM ET
And if that was the case, his skill set, then the real question is why would bowman
acquire him knowing that player twice before didn't work in the hawks system?


If I may, but that one is a layup...

Bowman had no choice-The entire deal along with Oduya signing in Dallas was scripted and it was Jim Nill with pen in hand not Bowman.

If I would have came on here the day after the Cup win and say Oduya won't be back because he could make an extra $400k somewhere else I would have been crucified...

But that's exactly what happened and Bickell becoming an anchor had a lot to do with the entire Sharp/Oduya and Daley debacle.

- Al


Don't forget Johns was in this deal too.

Ok at face value Nill wrote every detail of the trade. Hawks get a 3.3 mil per puck moving Dman with 10 yrs NHL experience skating 1st rotation for many of those years. They also have a need for a #4 cuz they just lost Oduya.

So Stan waits until he gets the terms from Nill on the trade and sees it's Daley and Garbutt he gets.

No choice back is against the wall and we're glad they didn't insist on Schmaltz too, ok Stan says where do I sign.

Pops and Q says I hate Daley. StanBow says ok I'll start looking around to move him and we'll go with TVR at #4, Gus/Sved at #5 and Rozy at 6. In the mean time Q starts Daley out at 20 minutes a game in October as a #4/5 with whoever as his partner.

Minutes are down to 18 a game in November, down to 16:00 at the end of November, down to 12:00 in December and on December 14th he's FINALLY traded? Finally found a home, been looking to trade him since July 11th since StanBow found out he was a part of the trade, for a #4 they never wanted, who skated 20 minutes a game to start the season before Q decided Rundblad and Gus were better a bottom pairing for a Game 7 in the playoffs???

Stan didn't know Daley was gonna be part of the deal until he was told by Nill?

StanBow's dad, and Q, says puck movers suck on July 11th 2015?

StanBow says ok I'll get rid of him to his pops and Q on July 12th?

Can't move him, nobody wants him starting July 11th so Q starts out skating him 20 minutes a game in October as StanBowPops&McD continue looking for a place to dump the #4 Dman with 10 years in the league?

Finally on December 14th 2016 they find a partner as Q reduced his minutes gradually from 20 a game to 12 the day he was moved?

Hard time getting my head around this scenario, Al..........
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 14 @ 4:46 PM ET
Hammer didnt give the discount. He signed an offer sheet with SJ. Hawks matched
- ikeane


His current deal was a extension of the offer sheet match.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 14 @ 4:47 PM ET
Those would all be guesses. I will venture to say the cap comes in around . . .
ehhhh . . . $72.8 million.

I think the "move" the two bigger moves most likely to happen would be moving Shaw's rights and/or moving Crawford. And buying out Bickell.

Somehow, in that, they'd get a natural left wing with some speed and skill and two-way game and a bit of cap space. Maybe they add one more serviceable depth d-man, could even default to Rozy (language buddy for the Kempny) at a league minimum deal. Maybe a depth veteran goalie with some tread led if Crawford goes.. Dunno.

Aaaaand . . . that would be the summer of work they would hope for.

- John Jaeckel

kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Jun 14 @ 4:49 PM ET
he signed a 5 year Extension after his 4 year deal they matched from the offer sheet 10/11,11/12,12/13,13/14 was his 4 year deal and 14/15, 15/16, and he has 3 more years on it at this point in his 5 year deal.
gifman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Gifland
Joined: 09.17.2015

Jun 14 @ 4:55 PM ET
Those would all be guesses. I will venture to say the cap comes in around . . .
ehhhh . . . $72.8 million.

I think the "move" the two bigger moves most likely to happen would be moving Shaw's rights and/or moving Crawford. And buying out Bickell.

Somehow, in that, they'd get a natural left wing with some speed and skill and two-way game and a bit of cap space. Maybe they add one more serviceable depth d-man, could even default to Rozy (language buddy for the Kempny) at a league minimum deal. Maybe a depth veteran goalie with some tread led if Crawford goes.. Dunno.

Aaaaand . . . that would be the summer of work they would hope for.

- John Jaeckel



No surprise move or return?


oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Jun 14 @ 5:03 PM ET
I'm not sure what your point is. I'm the one who explained the 2 years vs 4 years in the first place, and I said that Schmaltz and Forsling are the two prospects that you DON'T include with Bickell to move him.

As for Panarin, if you aren't willing to pay a 24 year old elite offensive player with PPG production, there are bigger problems here.

- BreakoutHockey


So sorry my mistake again . Your post were together did not check names then my 5th grade reading skills kicked in and I missed the word DON'T . Again sorry . On Panarin it not that your not willing more like can't pay him .And as you paid nothing for him why not take the picks .I hope something changes and they can sign him ,but I would not make a bad deal to move a contract to free up money for him . Take the picks , and there would be a lot maybe 5 1st picks ,fill a lot of holes cheap ..
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 5:07 PM ET
Agreed on pretty much every front. I just get frustrated when people say that Bowman should have bought him out at the first opportunity/never bothered trying to make a trade when that clearly would have been the preferred outcome if there had been a market. Definitely don't want to lose Teuvo over this.
- BreakoutHockey


Am I wrong here? If StanBowPops&McD bought out Bickell last summer they would have been able to keep Oduya, Johns and wouldn't have Scuderi's 1 mil on the 2016/17 cap?
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Jun 14 @ 5:08 PM ET
So sorry my mistake again . Your post were together did not check names then my 5th grade reading skills kicked in and I missed the word DON'T . Again sorry . On Panarin it not that your not willing more like can't pay him .And as you paid nothing for him why not take the picks .I hope something changes and they can sign him ,but I would not make a bad deal to move a contract to free up money for him . Take the picks , and there would be a lot maybe 5 1st picks ,fill a lot of holes cheap ..
- oldduffman


Actually, I wouldn't count on that many picks in compensation for an offer sheet - unless some GM is crazy enough to offer Panarin something north of $7.3 million per season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_sheet
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 5:16 PM ET
I think it comes down to what you said and the value of the player to the team. Would love to keep Crawford. Keeping him makes the team a bit more stable. The Detroit model is a bit dated, but it holds weight here just because of the Hawks cap situation. And out of the core, Crawford seems like the odd man out. The balanced D core you are suggesting is needed, as evidenced by this past season. There was no stability on the back end. The forward rotation, outside of the PAK line was also in shambles for a while. If #50 can be used as a chip to improve one or both of those, then roll with it.
- 93Joe


Actually that model is better today than pre-cap era. Back then you just pay the money for any goalie, so what, today you have to squeeze every nickel. That's if you think you can keep rotating in 2-3 mil goalies, win a cup, and move them once they are due 6 mil and replace them with another 2-3 mil goalie to win another cup.

I guess it can work with the right goalies, 3-4 of them in a 10 year period. That's hopin for a 7 on a lot of rolls of the dice.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 14 @ 5:19 PM ET
Actually, I wouldn't count on that many picks in compensation for an offer sheet - unless some GM is crazy enough to offer Panarin something north of $7.3 million per season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_sheet

- EKB13


A 1st, 2nd and a 3rd for Panarin as opposed to what StanBowPops&McD did with Dallas? It's like getting Babe Ruth and Lou Brock in return.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 14 @ 5:19 PM ET
Actually, I wouldn't count on that many picks in compensation for an offer sheet - unless some GM is crazy enough to offer Panarin something north of $7.3 million per season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_sheet

- EKB13


It depends on the years, too: they divide the total contract value by either 5 or the number of years on the contract, whichever is lower.

So - $6MM for 6 years = $36MM / 5 = $7.2MM for compensation purposes. (I know - still below the big draft pick limit).

You're also looking at last summer's numbers: the ranges may increase this summer, depending on the ultimate cap number.
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Jun 14 @ 5:20 PM ET
Actually, I wouldn't count on that many picks in compensation for an offer sheet - unless some GM is crazy enough to offer Panarin something north of $7.3 million per season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_sheet

- EKB13

Man I am old ,thank for the info .It was 4 1st picks for over 5 mil ,10 freaking years ago . They really have step that back ,not such a pretty picture now .. I very much doubt anyone is going 9 mil for the kid .
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 14 @ 5:20 PM ET
Hammer didnt give the discount. He signed an offer sheet with SJ. Hawks matched
- ikeane


next contract...
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Jun 14 @ 5:23 PM ET
You're also looking at last summer's numbers: the ranges may increase this summer, depending on the ultimate cap number.
- StLBravesFan


You're right. At any rate, hoping for five 1st round picks in compensation for Panarin is a pipe dream. That was the point I was trying to make.
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Jun 14 @ 5:26 PM ET
A 1st, 2nd and a 3rd for Panarin as opposed to what StanBowPops&McD did with Dallas? It's like getting Babe Ruth and Lou Brock in return.
- Mr Ricochet


Fair enough.

Jesus, that deal with the Stars last summer was the worst.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 14 @ 5:27 PM ET
Top source just checked in, as in "my" top source.

Lots of names in play, Bickell could get bought out (most likely), but it all depends where the cap settles.

- John Jaeckel


I just checked with my top source- me -and Bickell 16 days away form a buyout, period.
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Jun 14 @ 5:29 PM ET
You're right. At any rate, hoping for five 1st round picks in compensation for Panarin is a pipe dream. That was the point I was trying to make.
- EKB13

But still even with the real numbers I could see someone going close to 7 or over for him .Picks are Picks and the HAWKS got 2 years out of him for cheap. Hope they sign him ,and do a better job of dumping money if they have to .
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 14 @ 5:32 PM ET
Don't forget Johns was in this deal too.

Ok at face value Nill wrote every detail of the trade. Hawks get a 3.3 mil per puck moving Dman with 10 yrs NHL experience skating 1st rotation for many of those years. They also have a need for a #4 cuz they just lost Oduya.

So Stan waits until he gets the terms from Nill on the trade and sees it's Daley and Garbutt he gets.

No choice back is against the wall and we're glad they didn't insist on Schmaltz too, ok Stan says where do I sign.

Pops and Q says I hate Daley. StanBow says ok I'll start looking around to move him and we'll go with TVR at #4, Gus/Sved at #5 and Rozy at 6. In the mean time Q starts Daley out at 20 minutes a game in October as a #4/5 with whoever as his partner.

Minutes are down to 18 a game in November, down to 16:00 at the end of November, down to 12:00 in December and on December 14th he's FINALLY traded? Finally found a home, been looking to trade him since July 11th since StanBow found out he was a part of the trade, for a #4 they never wanted, who skated 20 minutes a game to start the season before Q decided Rundblad and Gus were better a bottom pairing for a Game 7 in the playoffs???

Stan didn't know Daley was gonna be part of the deal until he was told by Nill?

StanBow's dad, and Q, says puck movers suck on July 11th 2015?

StanBow says ok I'll get rid of him to his pops and Q on July 12th?

Can't move him, nobody wants him starting July 11th so Q starts out skating him 20 minutes a game in October as StanBowPops&McD continue looking for a place to dump the #4 Dman with 10 years in the league?

Finally on December 14th 2016 they find a partner as Q reduced his minutes gradually from 20 a game to 12 the day he was moved?

Hard time getting my head around this scenario, Al..........

- Mr Ricochet


Don't forget Johns was in this deal too.

Yes and at the time I mentioned he was the top prospect in Rockford.....
phantasmo
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 01.13.2016

Jun 14 @ 5:33 PM ET
I just checked with my top source- me -and Bickell 16 days away form a buyout, period.
- wiz1901



What is sad is that I think Bickell is a really good guy and human being. We on this board blame him a lot for his cap ills. To what extent his injuries are his fault? We'll never know. Did he "float"? Yes. I always appreciated his charitable efforts and will associate him with the golden era of Hawks hockey, if he was but a shooting star in 2013.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 14 @ 5:43 PM ET
Concerning trading Crawford-Which I never thought would be easy to accomplish.
Bowman will have a challenge because there will be a few goalies available making less money...

From what I hear one of the two in Anaheim will be moved.
kevndevries
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.31.2014

Jun 14 @ 5:45 PM ET
Actually, I wouldn't count on that many picks in compensation for an offer sheet - unless some GM is crazy enough to offer Panarin something north of $7.3 million per season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_sheet

- EKB13

I wouldnt say it would be that crazy.Just about a Point per game player and 30 goals as a 24 year old? Yes some of that is the benefit of playing with Kane but he still scored 30 goals. Saad scored 23 and got 6 million a year. Obviously he is better on D but goals get big pay days. I could see someone saying we want to sign him through his prime and give him 7 years (most they can) to have him til he is 31ish? One of Scott Powers articles said that one source said that he could draw almost 8 million. He has freakish talent and when players like bolland are able to sell themselves for 5.5 million a year i dont think it is to far out to say someone would want Panarin for 7.5. This was his first year on smaller ice and he tore it up. He is only going to get better and that 30 goals is only going to climb for the next 7 years.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 14 @ 5:51 PM ET
I wouldnt say it would be that crazy.Just about a Point per game player and 30 goals as a 24 year old? Yes some of that is the benefit of playing with Kane but he still scored 30 goals. Saad scored 23 and got 6 million a year. Obviously he is better on D but goals get big pay days. I could see someone saying we want to sign him through his prime and give him 7 years (most they can) to have him til he is 31ish? One of Scott Powers articles said that one source said that he could draw almost 8 million. He has freakish talent and when players like bolland are able to sell themselves for 5.5 million a year i dont think it is to far out to say someone would want Panarin for 7.5. This was his first year on smaller ice and he tore it up. He is only going to get better and that 30 goals is only going to climb for the next 7 years.
- kevndevries


If he wants anything north of $5.5 he is gone after this next season.
kevndevries
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.31.2014

Jun 14 @ 5:53 PM ET
If he wants anything north of $5.5 he is gone after this next season.
- Return of the Roar

I hope that isnt the case. I would love to see him sign in the 5 range long term to stay here. But open market I really think he gets north of 7 easily.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 14 @ 6:04 PM ET
I hope that isnt the case. I would love to see him sign in the 5 range long term to stay here. But open market I really think he gets north of 7 easily.
- kevndevries


I have a feeling that this whole static/lower cap era we are moving into will ultimately have its intended effect of depressing top end salaries and making GMs think twice about their spending.

Until the next labor dispute is allowed to happen.
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