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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: How Much Does The Goalie Matter?
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bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Jun 13 @ 3:25 PM ET
So if the Pens winning the cup isn't bad enough. I thought I would add some salt to the wound to those who took part in JJ's bracket challenge. I am very proud to say that you all got beat by my 9 year old daughter Bella

She is a huge hockey fan and saw me filling out my bracket ( I finished 30th ) so she wanted to do one herself. I am not sure where I failed as a parent but she is a HUGE Penguins fan so she is excited beyond words that not only did they win the cup but that she won the bracket.

- waitforawhistle


let me guess..she had the sharks out of the west
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 13 @ 3:41 PM ET
Wiz, nail on the head with the bolded part. The man was gruesome and completely unapologetic. He could dish it out all night long and somehow nobody would see it. Elbow, stick, didn't matter. But he couldn't take a clean hit. Like you, I didn't care for him.
- 6628


On Sirius radio I heard Steve Ludzik tell this little story: ... in 1964 when Ron Ellis was a rookie with the Toronto Maple Leafs prior to the game he saw that one of his idols Gordie Howe had broken a couple sticks in practice and offered him two of his, which Gordie took. During the game, Ron Ellis came in to forecheck Gordie. He suddenly was without two of his teeth. Gordie need that yard and half of space to work, and he made sure he had it no matter how vicious he needed to be to get it. Rookies especially were simply not gonna get clsoe to him. PERIOD.
MjulQvist
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.22.2012

Jun 13 @ 3:45 PM ET
Yes I know the recapture penalty thing but is there any chance Hossa could be that mysterious man out?
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jun 13 @ 3:45 PM ET
On Sirius radio I heard Steve Ludzik tell this little story: ... in 1964 when Ron Ellis was a rookie with the Toronto Maple Leafs prior to the game he saw that one of his idols Gordie Howe had broken a couple sticks in practice and offered him two of his, which Gordie took. During the game, Ron Ellis came in to forecheck Gordie. He suddenly was without two of his teeth. Gordie need that yard and half of space to work, and he made sure he had it no matter how vicious he needed to be to get it. Rookies especially were simply not gonna get clsoe to him. PERIOD.
- wiz1901



Wow. Not surprising though. He was a sadist.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 13 @ 3:47 PM ET
Trevor Daley made a good move in asking for a trade.
- DMChi2010


and even better one by hurting his ankle and not getting in the way of the guys that actually locked it down fro the Pens...
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jun 13 @ 3:51 PM ET
and even better one by hurting his ankle and not getting in the way of the guys that actually locked it down fro the Pens...
- wiz1901



I will say this... Even though the Pens had little in terms of big name guys on D, it shows that desire and the will to get after it gets the job done. I am not a Pens fan, but the Cup win for them shows how special hockey can be. The Pens wanted it more then anyone.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 13 @ 3:51 PM ET
Looked back at the NHL.com article where Rutherford was hired at the end of 2014 and Bylsma was fired. From the article:

Rutherford said the Penguins might not have a coach in place by the 2014 NHL Draft, which starts June 27, but will by the start of free agency.

"The coach is going to have to adjust to the style of players that we have," Rutherford said.

(The bolded is my emphasis.)

- DMChi2010


But when they hired former Blackhawk advance scout Mike Sullivan they went out and added speed and stop adjusting...
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 13 @ 3:59 PM ET
I will say this... Even though the Pens had little in terms of big name guys on D, it shows that desire and the will to get after it gets the job done. I am not a Pens fan, but the Cup win for them shows how special hockey can be. The Pens wanted it more then anyone.
- z1990z


No doubt in my mind.

They were a dominant team the ending the season even with Malkin out playing a strong defenseive game, and the stars were unselfish.
Just look at Crosby and was the backside pressure, and took the plays away from the slower Sharks as he was a thrid defender and still Sidney Crosby...no whining, whimpering and jabbering, even after the rly (first game?) love tap in the jaw from the big dirty Joe.

Speed does kill if it scores, checks and block shots.

A lot was learned Phil Kessel is a great third line wing just as Hossa will have to become as the Hawks continue to win as speed will be the what the load the wings with. The hawks had a template and now a second team has struck silver using it.
Can't think the Blackhawks go backward away from up tempo push, backside pressure and shot blocking, but it will be with the smurfs ready from the Icehogs...
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 13 @ 4:31 PM ET
Malikin.....no way.

I think there will be no significant moves. The cap will be between $71.5 and $72.5. Cannot take on any big salary at all.

Bickell will be bought out, Shaw should re-sign if cap is at the upper end - if lower end, Shaw is gone and Hatrman gets his shot. Motte, Lundberg and Panik will likely round out the forwards.

Same team as last year losing Ladd (with Motte/Panik being coached up as the 2LW, moving Panarin up to 1LW), Weise and Fleischmann gone, replaced by Lundberg and either Motte or Panik.

Rest, some adjustments to the game plan, and some coaching up. Worry about Panarin next year. Safe to say the FO and his agent have been and will continue to talk.

All they can afford to do.
tgentry1084
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 12.28.2012

Jun 13 @ 4:31 PM ET
Yes I know the recapture penalty thing but is there any chance Hossa could be that mysterious man out?
- MjulQvist


In case anyone doesn't know the specifics of the recapture rules, I'll do my best to lay them out as I understand them. Basically, the net benefit/loss that a team receives by paying a player more/less than his cap hit is totaled over the life of the contract. For Marian Hossa, it would play out as follows:

2010 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+$2.625m)
2011 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+$5.25m)
2012 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+7.875m)
2013 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+10.5m)
2014 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+13.125m)
2015 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+15.75m)
2016 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+18.375m)
2017 Salary $4m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+17.1m)
2018 Salary $1m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+12.825m)
2019 Salary $1m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+8.55m)
2020 Salary $1m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+4.275m)
2021 Salary $1m / Cap Hit $5.275m (0)

According to the Cap Recapture rules, if a player signed to a contract like Hossa's retires before the end, the team is saddled with a cap hit of the net benefit divided by the years remaining.

If Marian Hossa retires before the next season begins, the Blackhawks will have a cap hit of $3.675m/year until 2021 ($18.375m / 5 years). If Marian Hossa retires anytime between next summer and the end of his contract, the cap hit will be $4.275m/year until 2021. This is a problem for the Blackhawks even if he remains with the team until he retires. If he stays with the team, though, at least they control the cap recapture penalties and the net benefit continues to be reduced.

If he is traded, however, the net benefit stops. For example, if the Blackhawks trade Marian Hossa this summer, the net benefit will remain at +$18.375m for the life of his contract. If he retires any time between now and the end of his contract, the Blackhawks will have a cap hit of $18.375m divided by the number of years remaining. Even if he retires after the 2020 season, the Blackhawks will then have a full cap hit of $18.375m for the 2020-2021 season for Marian Hossa.

For this reason, it is extremely unlikely that the Blackhawks will ever trade Marian Hossa because it seems likely that he may retire during the life of his contract, rather than play into his 40s for $1m/year.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 13 @ 4:31 PM ET
No doubt in my mind.

They were a dominant team the ending the season even with Malkin out playing a strong defenseive game, and the stars were unselfish.
Just look at Crosby and was the backside pressure, and took the plays away from the slower Sharks as he was a thrid defender and still Sidney Crosby...no whining, whimpering and jabbering, even after the rly (first game?) love tap in the jaw from the big dirty Joe.

Speed does kill if it scores, checks and block shots.

A lot was learned Phil Kessel is a great third line wing just as Hossa will have to become as the Hawks continue to win as speed will be the what the load the wings with. The hawks had a template and now a second team has struck silver using it.
Can't think the Blackhawks go backward away from up tempo push, backside pressure and shot blocking, but it will be with the smurfs ready from the Icehogs...

- wiz1901


The other thing the Pens did was have 3 scoring lines and a 4th line - not a 3rd line as such, I think.
HelloFriend
Joined: 01.06.2016

Jun 13 @ 4:31 PM ET
but it will be with the smurfs ready from the Icehogs...
- wiz1901


I kinda like the term "Vanilla Midgets" from when Guererro, Benoit, Malenko, and Saturn jumped over to the WWE, myself.
tgentry1084
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 12.28.2012

Jun 13 @ 4:33 PM ET
Malikin.....no way.

I think there will be no significant moves. The cap will be between $71.5 and $72.5. Cannot take on any big salary at all.

Bickell will be bought out, Shaw should re-sign if cap is at the upper end - if lower end, Shaw is gone and Hatrman gets his shot. Motte, Lundberg and Panik will likely round out the forwards.

Same team as last year losing Ladd (with Motte/Panik being coached up as the 2LW, moving Panarin up to 1LW), Weise and Fleischmann gone, replaced by Lundberg and either Motte or Panik.

Rest, some adjustments to the game plan, and some coaching up. Worry about Panarin next year. Safe to say the FO and his agent have been and will continue to talk.

All they can afford to do.

- Return of the Roar


Even under this scenario, it would behoove the Blackhawks to try to re-sign Panarin as early as possible. It is unlikely that his value will go down, and it may make sense to "strike while the iron is hot," so to speak. It doesn't mean that they will (he may not be willing), but I think it would make more sense to try.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 13 @ 4:34 PM ET
In case anyone doesn't know the specifics of the recapture rules, I'll do my best to lay them out as I understand them. Basically, the net benefit/loss that a team receives by paying a player more/less than his cap hit is totaled over the life of the contract. For Marian Hossa, it would play out as follows:

2010 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+$2.625m)
2011 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+$5.25m)
2012 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+7.875m)
2013 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+10.5m)
2014 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+13.125m)
2015 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+15.75m)
2016 Salary $7.9m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+18.375m)
2017 Salary $4m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+17.1m)
2018 Salary $1m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+12.825m)
2019 Salary $1m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+8.55m)
2020 Salary $1m / Cap Hit $5.275m (+4.275m)
2021 Salary $1m / Cap Hit $5.275m (0)

According to the Cap Recapture rules, if a player signed to a contract like Hossa's retires before the end, the team is saddled with a cap hit of the net benefit divided by the years remaining.

If Marian Hossa retires before the next season begins, the Blackhawks will have a cap hit of $3.675m/year until 2021 ($18.375m / 5 years). If Marian Hossa retires anytime between next summer and the end of his contract, the cap hit will be $4.275m/year until 2021. This is a problem for the Blackhawks even if he remains with the team until he retires. If he stays with the team, though, at least they control the cap recapture penalties and the net benefit continues to be reduced.

If he is traded, however, the net benefit stops. For example, if the Blackhawks trade Marian Hossa this summer, the net benefit will remain at +$18.375m for the life of his contract. If he retires any time between now and the end of his contract, the Blackhawks will have a cap hit of $18.375m divided by the number of years remaining. Even if he retires after the 2020 season, the Blackhawks will then have a full cap hit of $18.375m for the 2020-2021 season for Marian Hossa.

For this reason, it is extremely unlikely that the Blackhawks will ever trade Marian Hossa because it seems likely that he may retire during the life of his contract, rather than play into his 40s for $1m/year.

- tgentry1084


How could Rocky / McD / either of the Bowmans / anyone connected with the Blackhawks front office with a brain - how could they agree to have this be part of the CBA back in 2013?

Absent an LTIR situation (certainly a possibility), does anyone really think that Hossa is going to play for $1MM per year for the last 4 years of his contract, in Chicago or elsewhere?
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 13 @ 4:39 PM ET
and even better one by hurting his ankle and not getting in the way of the guys that actually locked it down fro the Pens...
- wiz1901


Wiz,you, and Q, were wrong about Daley yesterday, today and will be tomorrow but that's cool. Ask and I'll give you the 27 page list of the times I was wrong, but Daley ain't on that list.

Spin it, yank it, mold it, twist it, massage it, tweak it, finagle it, propogandize it but Daley was a huge part of the Pens midseason turnaround, played in 3 of their playoff series and skated the 2nd most minutes of Pens Dmen while doing so on their way to a cup win.

To say otherwise is simply foolish by any measure.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 13 @ 4:43 PM ET
Even under this scenario, it would behoove the Blackhawks to try to re-sign Panarin as early as possible. It is unlikely that his value will go down, and it may make sense to "strike while the iron is hot," so to speak. It doesn't mean that they will (he may not be willing), but I think it would make more sense to try.
- tgentry1084


Impossible without $5MM+ in new cap space, or not signing Shaw, reserving that money and whatever cap increase comes from the following year for 72. And even then, no guarantees on that year's cap number being enough.

Not going to be able to dump that much salary elsewhere without eating a turd contract coming back.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 13 @ 4:45 PM ET
Wiz,you, and Q, were wrong about Daley yesterday, today and will be tomorrow but that's cool. Ask and I'll give you the 27 page list of the times I was wrong, but Daley ain't on that list.

Spin it, yank it, mold it, twist it, massage it, tweak it, finagle it, propogandize it but Daley was a huge part of the Pens midseason turnaround, played in 3 of their playoff series and skated the 2nd most minutes of Pens Dmen while doing so on their way to a cup win.

To say otherwise is simply foolish by any measure.

- Mr Ricochet


Agreed the sour grapes routine on a past player gets old.....

He was a round peg in a square hole here, found a team that could utilize all his skills and he won.....Congrats to him, and sounds like he was a HUGE part of that room based on his story, his mom, and Crosby's take on it last night.

I guess Trevor Daley is now public enemy #1 around here, so I'm sure Kevin Hayes will be happy to hear that.......
tgentry1084
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 12.28.2012

Jun 13 @ 4:46 PM ET
Impossible without $5MM+ in new cap space, or not signing Shaw, reserving that money and whatever cap increase comes from the following year for 72. And even then, no guarantees on that year's cap number being enough.

Not going to be able to dump that much salary elsewhere without eating a turd contract coming back.

- Return of the Roar


Are you saying they're not going to try to sign him before next season ends?
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 13 @ 4:49 PM ET
Impossible without $5MM+ in new cap space, or not signing Shaw, reserving that money and whatever cap increase comes from the following year for 72. And even then, no guarantees on that year's cap number being enough.

Not going to be able to dump that much salary elsewhere without eating a turd contract coming back.

- Return of the Roar


thank you.....and I think Shaw gets done, but I'm not so sure on Panarin. No ties to this team or organization and Hawks will have to pay very close to what the market was/is when they do/if resign him.

Factor in this.....Panarin could have another bonus amount hit of 2.5+ AND a new cap hit close to 5.5-6 million AAV....so that's an additional 8-8.5 AAV next year for him in the worst case scenario.

And that's just 1 kid.......

I'll keep saying it....next 60 days will shape this franchise for the next few years, if not the next decade based on who is chosen for the core, and what tough decisions they make.

Something else to keep in mind....Hossa's contract next year only pays him 1 million while his AAV is 5.275 so does a team trying to get to the cap floor have interest and would Hossa do a gentlemen's agreement with Hawks to not retire in the following 4 years? That 1 million dollar salary is for each of his last 4 years........
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 13 @ 4:49 PM ET
How could Rocky / McD / either of the Bowmans / anyone connected with the Blackhawks front office with a brain - how could they agree to have this be part of the CBA back in 2013?

Absent an LTIR situation (certainly a possibility), does anyone really think that Hossa is going to play for $1MM per year for the last 4 years of his contract, in Chicago or elsewhere?

- StLBravesFan


I've said this multiple times on this board. I am not worrying about Hossa recapture penalty. I just feel this will find a way to work itself out. Either another compliance buyout in the future (I've heard mention of one as part of an expansion draft, but have no idea whether that will happen), or more likely, an "injury" that will put him on LTIR. He has both back and concussion injuries in his past. Both of those will be impossible to challenge if that ends up the chosen path to get out of this recapture.

Why am I so sure? This was a known future bomb when the Hawks used their two compliance buyouts for Olesz and ___. Without a known solution to Hoss recapture for the future, the Hawks wouldnt have wasted those (I know they had an end date) and instead used one on Hoss.

Trust in the hawks braintrust. They have to have this figured out already.

But on the flipside, controlling this situation is vital. There is no chance he gets traded this summer. Zero.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jun 13 @ 4:50 PM ET
Are you saying they're not going to try to sign him before next season ends?
- tgentry1084


No. I am saying I don't see how they can commit without cap space to do it with. And any agent or player should know better. This problem is not unique to the Hawks, and will ultimately affect many many more teams.

However, I am certain there are talks ongoing.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 13 @ 4:51 PM ET
Are you saying they're not going to try to sign him before next season ends?
- tgentry1084


Have to check on the tagging rules and how much space they actually have...

It would be wise to, but if he's going to want close to market value, and I bet he does, see my above example of the worst case scenario for him....Kid is only going to get better here, especially playing with 88 so him reaching those bonuses isn't so far fetched.

That's the debate you would have to imagine internally.....how much is Panarin worth to this team at X price compared to Y player at Z price? Because the only way to sign him is to make him par tof the core and ship off an existing core(as of today) member.
TyCamScore
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.09.2010

Jun 13 @ 4:52 PM ET
Possibly. I'm sure there will be a few other names competing for a spot as well.
- EKB13


New guy, Lundberg will be in line for a 4th line/PK role as well. Seems like he'll be a Q guy.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jun 13 @ 4:55 PM ET
New guy, Lundberg will be in line for a 4th line/PK role as well. Seems like he'll be a Q guy.
- TyCamScore



Word is that guy likes to throw the body big time too...
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Jun 13 @ 4:56 PM ET
Agreed the sour grapes routine on a past player gets old.....

He was a round peg in a square hole here, found a team that could utilize all his skills and he won.....Congrats to him, and sounds like he was a HUGE part of that room based on his story, his mom, and Crosby's take on it last night.

I guess Trevor Daley is now public enemy #1 around here, so I'm sure Kevin Hayes will be happy to hear that.......

- SteveRain


Very well said.
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