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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: How Much Does The Goalie Matter?
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SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 13 @ 10:52 AM ET
i'm not a huge analytics guy... but, this was on twitter just a few minutes ago:

Matt Larkin @THNMattLarkin

Past five Cup champions' rankings in score-adjusted Corsi: 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd. Tough for even greatest skeptics not to see correlation.

- jt19


The Hawks have their own hybrid type of analytics. Its how they draft and monitor guys. Bowman has said so in the past.

I don't write off Corsi, but I fall into more of the middle. Cosi holds some water, but so does the eye test.......there has to be a balance between both.

I think the most important variable San Jose was NOT ready for, was Pittsburgh teams' speed and abllity to close off shooting lanes. Took Burns completely out of the series from the point. hawks really need to make a larger commitment to blocking shots....they are horrible at point coverage.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 13 @ 10:55 AM ET
Thanks Mr. R. I thought, as you did, that Philadelphia would be a pretty good landing spot. They look like they need a goalie who can take that extra step. I also agree that the salary move would make sense... For the Hawks. I was also thinking a CC and TT package for a goalie and one of their good D prospects would make sense, but the more I think, it doesn't because Teravainen is playing in the NHL at a reasonable price.
- 93Joe


Joe, the Flyers blogger is a must read even if you aren't a Flyers fan. This guy oozes hockey knowledge, been around forever and writes like a pro. He had a blog on Flyer goalie prospects that is helpful: http://www.hockeybuzz.com...st_id=77420&blogger_id=45

Stolarz is a kid that I kinda root for in that he wasn't drafted by Major Junior or the USHL. He came up the hard way working his way up from the Empire jr league and then to the NAHL before a quick stop in the NCAA and a couple season for the powerhouse OHL London Knights then drafted in round #2 by Philly in 2012.

Big kid that would remind you of Darling.


SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 13 @ 10:58 AM ET
Have to, just havta tweak systems to put individual players in a position to succeed. ALL players, not just Saad with 19+81, or 72 with 88.

We've all seen TT be much more effective at RW. And with 88+81 at RW how is TT not at least given a string of maybe 10 games at 3RW to see how it goes. And if you have to re-define roles on the 3rd line thereby changing the strategy so be it.

With this rigid cap a team looking to be competitive on a yearly basis has no choice but to be flexible with not only the lines but the system as well. A coach can cover for a lack of speed by dialing in a system to fit the players. If a slower player knows ahead of time where he is supposed to be he can be on his way earlier making him effectively faster than he appears to be. Mike Sullivan is a perfect example of a coach who is up to date. Before the playoffs who thought the Pens defense was better than the Sharks? Not me, that's for sure. And I wasn't a big Daley fan based on what I saw earlier in the year. I'm not even sure how much he helped Pit. But he didn't appear to hurt them. In my opinion the coach was most responsible for their cup win. Sullivan dialed them in perfectly. And I have to laugh every time I think about him coming from the Hawks.

- 6628


I agree on all fronts. Including 86. If he COULD take the big step offensively you could slide 81 down to 3 RW and help balance out lines seeing that 81's finishing ability has dropped dramatically.

Qs biggest flaw is his unwillingness to be flexible. It's not that he doesn't play young players, he does, but he hates stupid players. NO matter the age. However, he also does a lot of contradicting. Some guys can mistake after mistake and have no end to the slack, where as another guy looks the wrong way and he's toast.

Guys like Leddy, Campbell, Daley all love to rush the puck up, but that isnt' the MO of the Hawks offense. It's the stretch pass, t's the quick breakouts. So I have to assume 6s request to be dealt was more based on his game being chained down and not allowing him to flourish at what he does best.
Panarin27
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 05.25.2015

Jun 13 @ 10:58 AM ET
Looks like Hawks are in on Malkin
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Jun 13 @ 11:00 AM ET
Looks like Hawks are in on Malkin
- Panarin27


Seabs and AA for Malkin.
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Jun 13 @ 11:02 AM ET
Mornin' Savvy...I'm with you...Q needs to make the most with what he has. Why you would play Mash over Weise is still mindboggling. How bout running off Brouwer? How bout those special teams? Was Daley the answer? It's debatable, but when you look at what you had out there in that series against the Blues after the top three you'd have to say he certainly was a better option.

But the flip side of that as you well know is the caretaker GM that still thinks BB has trade value. The same guy that held his cards too long in the Sharp deal. The same guy who targeted Kimmo Timonen. The same guy that knew at the parade last year he needed a #4 dman and ran out and resigned his pet Runny before anything else.

I really hope these two can come together this summer and make it work, but I have my doubts. It's a two way street, and its sad because I think we both can agree that had there been more alignment amongst the staff and the FO we could be looking at another Cup or two here in the past stretch. As it appears right now its toxic.

- DK002

Morning to you DK, hope you are well. Your last point might be a little strong (don't know that's it's quite to toxic level yet) but sure is close to accurate. At least from what we see as the end-result of trades, signings, etc and our HC's acceptance or not of said players. Seeing Mike Sullivan raising the CUP with a team whose D everyone thought wasn't up-to-task. So what did he do? Used the talents/skills of players he had, gave some opportunities and asked the same of the entire lineup.
DMChi2010
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jun 13 @ 11:03 AM ET
Let me phrase it a different way, what would you give up for TT?
- vabeachbear


If the cap comes in at $72.8M, there is no way they can sign Shaw, even with a Bickell buyout. The ELC's they have are literally NOT cheap enough, since most are of the $925K variety and not $600K.

I think they should package Bickell with TT. If they only buyout Bickell and are charged $1M this year, not having that extra $1M from a trade will make signing Shaw impossible (see above paragraph). The buyout next year costs $1.5M and then TT will want a raise to $3M. Not gonna happen with a stagnant cap and a need for Panarin's raise.

Package Teets with Bicks. Sign Shaw. His arms in the corners are not alligator-like.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:04 AM ET
Speaking of the Pens, the Hawks are one of the early favorites to land Malkin in a trade according to Ek. So we got that going for us, which is nice...
- Sundevil



Ummmmm Malkin? Big cap issue there unless something big is going back to the Pens. Malkin is making 9.5 a year. Heckuva player, but that contract? Yeeesh.
tyweb69
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:05 AM ET
4 teams have won the last 8 cups. How's that parity working out for you Gary?
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 13 @ 11:06 AM ET
I agree JOhn and lets be honest....if you go back to the end of 2014 and read Scotty's quotes as to why the Hawks lost to LA it was center size. So why would they back track knowing that the formula with smaller centers, doesn't work? They wont. Teuvo's future in the NHL if he ever sniffs the hype, will be RW and right now he is blocked.

Now ....would or should they give him up with Bickell just to save an additional 1.896 million in cap space? I don't think so. I'm NOT the bggest fan of TT but at this time with the cap going up very miniscule you have to gamble he improves.

As far as CC goes, I'm a huge believer in trading from depth and before CC won the cup he had 2 flame outs. 1 he played very well vs Van, and the other he played like complete hell vs Arz. So for everyone saying Darling can't or wont do the same, I beg to differ. Question is, will there be a market for CC SHOULD the hawks look to trade him......

Lastly, I saw Eklund mention something about Malkin wanting out and hawks being in the running........how they make that work, is beyond me.........

- SteveRain


This x1000!! I don't think TT can ever be an NHL 2C but he just MIGHT become a workable 3C or 3RW. And as you go on to say he's cost controlled for NOW. TT's spotty efforts IMO means when he does become an RFA he needs to be moved. When a Bickell has spotty efforts at least he falls on a guy once in awhile when TT has spotty efforts he plays like a mouse in a snake pen and gives you zero.

Never know but if Malkin were a target of the Hawks I might sell my season tickets cuz if this group is that dumb to target a guy who gives 1/2 effort 1/2 the time and plays 60 games a year the management group is beyond help. .......And a reason I've clicked an EK blog/thought just once in 5 years.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 13 @ 11:08 AM ET
4 teams have won the last 8 cups. How's that parity working out for you Gary?
- tyweb69


Biggest misconception of the cap by so many is parity.

The other joke is how these small market teams take on LTIR players with huge cap hits or guys retiring (Pronger) or guys going to Russia (Datysuk). So while people can scream and stomp about Hossa deals circumventing the cap, how does dumping guys who will never play on small market teams help them out?

You know what would be hilarious.....Pronger should go in to HOF as a Coyote just to slap the system. As a player who cares what sweater you go in as, as long as you go in.
CanOCorn
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: The OP, IL
Joined: 04.03.2013

Jun 13 @ 11:09 AM ET
Did everyone also see that Malkin wants to be "The Guy?"

Well, if he comes here, even if only one of the core goes the other way, Malkin won't be "The Guy." So, if it's true, that he wants out of Sid's shadow, Chicago ain't the place.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 13 @ 11:09 AM ET
i'm not a huge analytics guy... but, this was on twitter just a few minutes ago:

Matt Larkin @THNMattLarkin

Past five Cup champions' rankings in score-adjusted Corsi: 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd. Tough for even greatest skeptics not to see correlation.

- jt19


And they've all be very, very talented. Can't have one without the other. Better players, in a system that works, have the puck on their stick more often than not.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jun 13 @ 11:10 AM ET
Stan walks into Q's office and timidly slides the score-adjusted Corsi spreadsheet onto his desk showing the Hawks were like 28th with Mashinter in the lineup - and has to run for his life dodging a barrage of practice pucks...
- Sundevil



THHHIIIIIISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jun 13 @ 11:10 AM ET
Congrats to the Pens organisation.

Crosby and this team were lights out the last 3 months ad the Sharks showed their age in the final.

Fleury gave the organisation the finger last night when he did the shortest skate with the Cup I have ever seen
What a cry baby.

Sullivan was the MVP and if coaches could receive the Conne Smythe he would have.

- Colbyboy



I picked up on that as well. Not sure what the meaning. Maybe he felt he didn't do much. Maybe been there done that. By most accounts he's a good soldier. And maybe he's a cry baby like you said. I would love to get the answer.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 13 @ 11:11 AM ET
This x1000!! I don't think TT can ever be an NHL 2C but he just MIGHT become a workable 3C or 3RW. And as you go on to say he's cost controlled for NOW. TT's spotty efforts IMO means when he does become an RFA he needs to be moved. When a Bickell has spotty efforts at least he falls on a guy once in awhile when TT has spotty efforts he plays like a mouse in a snake pen and gives you zero.

Never know but if Malkin were a target of the Hawks I might sell my season tickets cuz if this group is that dumb to target a guy who gives 1/2 effort 1/2 the time and plays 60 games a year the management group is beyond help. .......And a reason I've clicked an EK blog/thought just once in 5 years.

- Mr Ricochet


On Malkin....it only makes sense to lock in Panarin as you have a "Russian line" per se. Like you, I just laughed hard reading it as it doesn't make sense but again, IF, and that's a huge IF, he's available, seeing that I haven't read it anywhere else, I guess you have to call.

On TT, thanks....like you if 81 can't produce then you have to give him, 86, a shot up at RW with 19 for say 10 games and see if he can find his game. If not, then you know it's a lost cause.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 13 @ 11:14 AM ET
Stan walks into Q's office and timidly slides the score-adjusted Corsi spreadsheet onto his desk showing the Hawks were like 28th with Mashinter in the lineup - and has to run for his life dodging a barrage of practice pucks...
- Sundevil


You mean into McD's office!!! Q has his own set of paradigms he lives by and seemingly doesn't care about most others. And why not he's won 3 cups in 7 years, but that was then and now is now.


DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jun 13 @ 11:21 AM ET
Seabs and AA for Malkin.
- kmw4631



That would be a mistake. People complain that the team has too much tied up with Toews and Kane, adding another single high priced forward while decreasing organization depth would be wrong.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 13 @ 11:22 AM ET
4 teams have won the last 8 cups. How's that parity working out for you Gary?
- tyweb69


Actually, not bad:

In the finals:

6 different teams in the last 3 seasons.
7 in the last 4 (since the last lock-out)
8 in the last 5
11 in the last 8 seasons
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jun 13 @ 11:22 AM ET
I agree on all fronts. Including 86. If he COULD take the big step offensively you could slide 81 down to 3 RW and help balance out lines seeing that 81's finishing ability has dropped dramatically.

Qs biggest flaw is his unwillingness to be flexible. It's not that he doesn't play young players, he does, but he hates stupid players. NO matter the age. However, he also does a lot of contradicting. Some guys can mistake after mistake and have no end to the slack, where as another guy looks the wrong way and he's toast.

Guys like Leddy, Campbell, Daley all love to rush the puck up, but that isnt' the MO of the Hawks offense. It's the stretch pass, t's the quick breakouts. So I have to assume 6s request to be dealt was more based on his game being chained down and not allowing him to flourish at what he does best.

- SteveRain



Hey Rain, you might have been the guy who I first saw suggest this and at the time I thought it was brilliant. Still do. Would Hossa be one of the best 3rd line guys ever or what. And he could actually do that effectively until the end of his contract if he chose to. Not being on the 1st line would take a lot of weight off his shoulders and I'm thinking he could really get used to it and like it.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jun 13 @ 11:26 AM ET
Well, I don't run an NHL team that has its own unique set of needs.

But I think, as a for instance, straight up, IF the GM feels he has some legit upside, he could get you a role player, like a bottom six forward and a late first/high second round round pick. But that would be a GM who is pretty high on him.

- John Jaeckel


Ok, fair. If that's the case, I think I would keep him. Admittedly, I'm basing this on the fact that Wiz isn't very high on this draft. I wouldn't trade him for a bottom 6 winger I don't think.

I'd trade him for a top 4 dman, but with the cap the way it is, probably wouldn't trade him for less than that.

Should be interesting.
hpk90
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: North Potomac, MD
Joined: 12.13.2011

Jun 13 @ 11:30 AM ET
Will JUST say THIS:

The rumor I have heard, and others have heard independently, is that a very surprising name could be leaving and a very surprising name coming.

Have I heard anything about Malkin being one of those names to this point? No.

- John Jaeckel


I cannot even begin to imagine the amount of math it would take to bring Malkin to the Hawks...even imaginary numbers probably cannot make that work.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jun 13 @ 11:30 AM ET
Biggest misconception of the cap by so many is parity.

The other joke is how these small market teams take on LTIR players with huge cap hits or guys retiring (Pronger) or guys going to Russia (Datysuk). So while people can scream and stomp about Hossa deals circumventing the cap, how does dumping guys who will never play on small market teams help them out?

You know what would be hilarious.....Pronger should go in to HOF as a Coyote just to slap the system. As a player who cares what sweater you go in as, as long as you go in.

- SteveRain


The parity Bettman wants, and has gotten, is 26 of the 30 teams have a mathematical chance of making the playoffs with two weeks left in the season in an idiotic 3 points per game set up. This way fans of teams that have no real chance of making the playoffs will continue to buy tickets in February or March.

Your other points are excellent as well as they show the cap as it is TODAY is a farce.

Point of the exercise is to fool as many fans into buying tickets as long as you can.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 13 @ 11:32 AM ET
Very intriguing!

What were the thoughts on the Cup final? The big takeaways for why the Pen won the Cup: 1) speed kills 2) exiting the D zone with speed and 3) great counterpunching on breakouts. Lots of speed/skill from the depth players to complement the top lines

- phantasmo


I think speed is really important. Just seems like the tempo in the conference and Cup Finals the last couple of years is so high, few teams can keep up.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jun 13 @ 11:33 AM ET
Hey Rain, you might have been the guy who I first saw suggest this and at the time I thought it was brilliant. Still do. Would Hossa be one of the best 3rd line guys ever or what. And he could actually do that effectively until the end of his contract if he chose to. Not being on the 1st line would take a lot of weight off his shoulders and I'm thinking he could really get used to it and like it.
- 6628



I have no huge issue with it, but now Toews has nothing on both wings, not just one.
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