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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Musings: Defining a 'Deep' Draft
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YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 6 @ 11:06 AM ET
With teams only being able to keep one goaltender there's going to be an awful lot of great goaltending value available. I can't envision a scenario where Stolarz gets picked up in an expansion draft with all the options that will be available.
- Gnrlbot


PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 6 @ 11:08 AM ET
About as likely as Morin being Pronger.
- Tomahawk


The NHL, more than any other league, is obsessed with player comps. No two players are ever that similar
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 6 @ 11:10 AM ET
what value does he really have on the team?
when he went out and andy mac came back in. was there any noticeable difference in your opinion?

- rinaldo


Yes, very noticeable.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 6 @ 11:12 AM ET
They would still be Flyers property until July 1.
- MJL


Exactly.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 6 @ 11:12 AM ET
The NHL, more than any other league, is obsessed with player comps. No two players are ever that similar
- PhillySportsGuy

Remember every other player 4 years ago was a Mike Richards type?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 6 @ 11:14 AM ET
With teams only being able to keep one goaltender there's going to be an awful lot of great goaltending value available. I can't envision a scenario where Stolarz gets picked up in an expansion draft with all the options that will be available.
- Gnrlbot


It depends. Guys like Fleury and Bishop may be available, but if a team wants to go young, they may take a flier on Stolarz. It's a long shot, but as long as Mason/Neuvirth (whoever they pick) understands and has a deal in place, why take the risk?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 6 @ 11:14 AM ET
With teams only being able to keep one goaltender there's going to be an awful lot of great goaltending value available. I can't envision a scenario where Stolarz gets picked up in an expansion draft with all the options that will be available.
- Gnrlbot



Would Solar even need to be protected?
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jun 6 @ 11:16 AM ET
Just read one of the panthers guys and they are suggesting Quinton Howden is probably not getting a QO.

With the cap most likely staying stagnate I wonder if more guys might miss out on QOs.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Jun 6 @ 11:16 AM ET
Would Solar even need to be protected?
- MJL


I don't think so
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 6 @ 11:17 AM ET
Just read one of the panthers guys and they are suggesting Quinton Howden is probably not getting a QO.

With the cap most likely staying stagnate I wonder if more guys might miss out on QOs.

- J35Bacher


Florida does a great job of retaining future SCF OT winning goal scorers
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jun 6 @ 11:18 AM ET
It depends. Guys like Fleury and Bishop may be available, but if a team wants to go young, they may take a flier on Stolarz. It's a long shot, but as long as Mason/Neuvirth (whoever they pick) understands and has a deal in place, why take the risk?
- jmatchett383



The play of Murray and Vasilevski have really helped their teams. Now the Pens and Bolts could possibly move players and get some assets and not have to pay up on goalies.

I see Calgary grabbing one proven goalie at the draft.
flyhoc
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 02.14.2009

Jun 6 @ 11:18 AM ET
And, FWIW, here are my top ten Flyer's draft steals.

Just missed the Cut
Dave Schultz 5th round 1969
Pete Peeters 8th round 1977
Patrick Sharp 3rd round 2001

10. Gord Murphy 9th round 1985
If a 9th round pick plays AT ALL in the NHL it was a good pick. When he develops into a solid top 4 dman, it's grand larceny!

9. Paul Holmgren 6th round 1975
When you can land a 2 way, top 6, heart and soul forward with a 6th round pick, the scout that found him deserves a raise.

8. Shayne Gostisbehere 3rd round 2012
In a few more years, he may very well be higher on the list, but we can already safely say that a lot of teams regret not taking Ghost when they had the chance.

7. Pelle Eklund 8th round 1983
When your 8th round pick is putting up 50 assists and running your powerplay, you've had a great draft.

6. Chris Therien 3rd round 1990
He had his detractors, but he was top pair guy here for over half a decade, not too shabby. He also owned Jaromir Jagr like very few Dmen have ever done.

5. Dennis Seidenberg 6th round 2001
15 years later and he's still in the NHL, pretty impressive for a 6th round pick.

4. Jimmy Watson 3rd round 1972
He was an all star and the best Flyers Dman in the mid to late 70s, he's also, at least for now, the best homegrown DMan in team history. Not to bad for a 3rd rounder.

3. Ron Hextall 6th round 1982
Our current GM was a steal in the 6th round in 82. When your 6th round pick brings home a Vezina, a Smythe and revolutionizes the way his position is played, you have hit a draft day grand slam.

2. Rick Tocchet 6th round 1983
One of the best power forwards in team history, he was an absolute steal in the 6th round. Not too many 6th rounders play over 1100 NHL games.

1. Bobby Clarke 2nd round 1969
Ordinarily, you don't really consider a 2nd rounder to be a steal. However when that 2nd rounder ends up the best player in franchise history, leads you to 2 Cups, wins 3 Hart trophies and is inducted into the NHL hall of fame on the 1st ballot, then yeah, IT'S A STEAL!! The fact that Boston passed on him 3 times and Montreal and NY twice, just makes it even better!

- BiggE[/qu

Great List !

Also great were Bill Barber, even though a 1st round pick, he certainly lived up to that selection

Pelle Lindbergh, 35th pick, 2nd round 1979

never became a Flyer but was impressive...Anton Stastny 12th round 1978
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 6 @ 11:19 AM ET
Would Solar even need to be protected?
- MJL


Yes, he will have 3 years of pro experience at the end of next year.
rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

Jun 6 @ 11:19 AM ET
Yes, very noticeable.
- jmatchett383

in what way was it very noticeable.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jun 6 @ 11:19 AM ET
All scouts can do project how a kid's game will translate to the next level. A lot of busts in professional sports occur because they are not mentally mature enough. No real analytics to gage a player's heart, work ethic, and overall attitude.
- Pelle31Forever


That's just one small factor of drafting players.

Every year i see people talk about the draft as a crap shoot, pick a name out of a hat and hope its good. There is a lot more to drafting and scouting than that. There are just so many scouts and time to analyze every single player, some teams focus more overseas whereas others focus on NA. Every scout sees things differently as well, so obviously there are scouts better than others.

Now add in the situational factor, which team a player is selected by. How well does the team system work with them in it. What kind of opportunity does the player receive (maybe they get thrown in the lineup right away, an injury occurs later and they get a chance to show something, depth at the position and they get swallowed by the numbers, what other players are on the team to help them progress). These factors are huge for all sports.

Saying that players don't make it because they are lazy or not mentality strong enough and putting that onus completely on the player is unfair. The team has just as much responsibility as the player.

Patrick Shark for example. Flyers had no room for him due to depth at center (although he ended up playing more wing in his career), traded with Meloche (i believe) for Ellison (RW). Basically saying we can't use you, but we will give you a shot somewhere else. Shortly after he was in the Blackhawks lineup and producing. That opportunity gave him a chance to stay in the NHL, if he wasn't traded and specifically to Chicago his career would be different. To what degree I don't know. Instead of being a "who" playing a handful of games, he had a decent NHL career.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 6 @ 11:20 AM ET
It depends. Guys like Fleury and Bishop may be available, but if a team wants to go young, they may take a flier on Stolarz. It's a long shot, but as long as Mason/Neuvirth (whoever they pick) understands and has a deal in place, why take the risk?
- jmatchett383


There are still younger, more proven options out there...the only scenario where he would be taken is if someone is just looking to be a giant peckerhead or the team in Vegas is run by his mom.

Not only does he have to be more attractive than the rest of the available goaltenders, he also needs to be the most attractive option on the Flyers, since only one player can be picked (per expansion team)
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 6 @ 11:20 AM ET
Remember every other player 4 years ago was a Mike Richards type?
- hereticpride


None of them ended up being like Mike Richards. Not even close either. Many of them were vastly different.

I feel like so many scouts don't even watch the games. It's one thing to just swing and miss on a player because he simply never develops, but to have guys be completely wrong about a player's strengths and weaknesses is absurd.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 6 @ 11:20 AM ET
in what way was it very noticeable.
- rinaldo


Eye test, and smell test
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 6 @ 11:20 AM ET
And, FWIW, here are my top ten Flyer's draft steals.

Just missed the Cut
Dave Schultz 5th round 1969
Pete Peeters 8th round 1977
Patrick Sharp 3rd round 2001

10. Gord Murphy 9th round 1985
If a 9th round pick plays AT ALL in the NHL it was a good pick. When he develops into a solid top 4 dman, it's grand larceny!

9. Paul Holmgren 6th round 1975
When you can land a 2 way, top 6, heart and soul forward with a 6th round pick, the scout that found him deserves a raise.

8. Shayne Gostisbehere 3rd round 2012
In a few more years, he may very well be higher on the list, but we can already safely say that a lot of teams regret not taking Ghost when they had the chance.

7. Pelle Eklund 8th round 1983
When your 8th round pick is putting up 50 assists and running your powerplay, you've had a great draft.

6. Chris Therien 3rd round 1990
He had his detractors, but he was top pair guy here for over half a decade, not too shabby. He also owned Jaromir Jagr like very few Dmen have ever done.

5. Dennis Seidenberg 6th round 2001
15 years later and he's still in the NHL, pretty impressive for a 6th round pick.

4. Jimmy Watson 3rd round 1972
He was an all star and the best Flyers Dman in the mid to late 70s, he's also, at least for now, the best homegrown DMan in team history. Not to bad for a 3rd rounder.

3. Ron Hextall 6th round 1982
Our current GM was a steal in the 6th round in 82. When your 6th round pick brings home a Vezina, a Smythe and revolutionizes the way his position is played, you have hit a draft day grand slam.

2. Rick Tocchet 6th round 1983
One of the best power forwards in team history, he was an absolute steal in the 6th round. Not too many 6th rounders play over 1100 NHL games.

1. Bobby Clarke 2nd round 1969
Ordinarily, you don't really consider a 2nd rounder to be a steal. However when that 2nd rounder ends up the best player in franchise history, leads you to 2 Cups, wins 3 Hart trophies and is inducted into the NHL hall of fame on the 1st ballot, then yeah, IT'S A STEAL!! The fact that Boston passed on him 3 times and Montreal and NY twice, just makes it even better!

- BiggE


I'd already put Ghost ahead of Therien. Even if he never plays another game, he was a season-changer last year.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jun 6 @ 11:23 AM ET
[quote=BiggE]And, FWIW, here are my top ten Flyer's draft steals.

Just missed the Cut
Dave Schultz 5th round 1969
Pete Peeters 8th round 1977
Patrick Sharp 3rd round 2001

10. Gord Murphy 9th round 1985
If a 9th round pick plays AT ALL in the NHL it was a good pick. When he develops into a solid top 4 dman, it's grand larceny!

9. Paul Holmgren 6th round 1975
When you can land a 2 way, top 6, heart and soul forward with a 6th round pick, the scout that found him deserves a raise.

8. Shayne Gostisbehere 3rd round 2012
In a few more years, he may very well be higher on the list, but we can already safely say that a lot of teams regret not taking Ghost when they had the chance.

7. Pelle Eklund 8th round 1983
When your 8th round pick is putting up 50 assists and running your powerplay, you've had a great draft.

6. Chris Therien 3rd round 1990
He had his detractors, but he was top pair guy here for over half a decade, not too shabby. He also owned Jaromir Jagr like very few Dmen have ever done.

5. Dennis Seidenberg 6th round 2001
15 years later and he's still in the NHL, pretty impressive for a 6th round pick.

4. Jimmy Watson 3rd round 1972
He was an all star and the best Flyers Dman in the mid to late 70s, he's also, at least for now, the best homegrown DMan in team history. Not to bad for a 3rd rounder.

3. Ron Hextall 6th round 1982
Our current GM was a steal in the 6th round in 82. When your 6th round pick brings home a Vezina, a Smythe and revolutionizes the way his position is played, you have hit a draft day grand slam.

2. Rick Tocchet 6th round 1983
One of the best power forwards in team history, he was an absolute steal in the 6th round. Not too many 6th rounders play over 1100 NHL games.

1. Bobby Clarke 2nd round 1969
Ordinarily, you don't really consider a 2nd rounder to be a steal. However when that 2nd rounder ends up the best player in franchise history, leads you to 2 Cups, wins 3 Hart trophies and is inducted into the NHL hall of fame on the 1st ballot, then yeah, IT'S A STEAL!! The fact that Boston passed on him 3 times and Montreal and NY twice, just makes it even better!

- flyhoc[/qu

Great List !

Also great were Bill Barber, even though a 1st round pick, he certainly lived up to that selection

Pelle Lindbergh, 35th pick, 2nd round 1979

never became a Flyer but was impressive...Anton Stastny 12th round 1978


Yeah if you are putting Seidenberg in that list, Patrick Sharp needs to be ahead of him.
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jun 6 @ 11:24 AM ET
still think Flyers are drafting Bean....switch to Phils for a second and who are they drafting?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 6 @ 11:25 AM ET
in what way was it very noticeable.
- rinaldo


He moved the puck much better, was playing great on the PK, was a much better neutral zone defender, just all-around better. Keeping in mind that he was playing hurt before he finally had to shut it down just makes it more impressive.

He's not a game changer or an irreplaceable player, but he was the second best defenseman on the team last season.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jun 6 @ 11:25 AM ET
I'd already put Ghost ahead of Therien. Even if he never plays another game, he was a season-changer last year.
- jmatchett383


Sean Couturier should be on the list
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jun 6 @ 11:26 AM ET
still think Flyers are drafting Bean....switch to Phils for a second and who are they drafting?
- vejim


Why does baseball do its draft in the middle of the season?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 6 @ 11:26 AM ET
I don't think so
- Streit2ThePoint


I think he would be. I don't believe Morin would need to be. Not sure about Hagg.

We'll see what happens this offseason. If Hexy goes out and signs a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman for multiple years, the Flyers may risk losing a decent player. If it were me, I'd protect

dmen
Ghost
MDZ (assuming he re-signs long term)
Gudas

Forwards
G
Voracek
Schenn(assuming he's still here)
Simmonds
Couturier
Raffl
Laughton

Goalie
Stolarz
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