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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: VandeVelde, Wheat Kings, Zezel and More
Author Message
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 27 @ 10:43 AM ET
There's that drop-down, change '5V5' to '5V5 score and venue adjusted', you'll get more accurate representations.
- Tomahawk



We can use any variation of score adjusted numbers, manpower, matchups, etc. Was AllInForFlyers looking at only certain game situations in the post I replied to?

So who was wrong with their comment, me or you?




The numbers I posted were accurate.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 27 @ 10:47 AM ET
We can use any variation of score adjusted numbers, manpower, matchups, etc. Was AllInForFlyers looking at only certain game situations in the post I replied to?

So who was wrong with their comment, me or you?




The numbers I posted were accurate.

- MJL


Accurate, but not the right numbers. You want the ones not skewed by score effects and score-taking bias.

We shouldn't even be looking at the PO numbers to begin with... tiny sample size, not to mention same teams playing each other over and over exaggerating things. Look at the Pens regular season numbers instead, if you want a true indication of how their bottom-six fared this season. Then compare w/ the Flyers' bottom-six.

(if you're gonna lead w/ numbers, might as well know how to do it right... just helping you out bro)
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 27 @ 10:50 AM ET
There's that drop-down, change '5V5' to '5V5 score and venue adjusted', you'll get more accurate representations.
- Tomahawk


Probably no easy way to see what they were before the conference final, is there?
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

May 27 @ 10:50 AM ET
For the record, I have never been wrong.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

May 27 @ 10:51 AM ET
That is still the most disturbingly funny sequence I have ever seen in a movie

- AllInForFlyers


I love that movie.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 27 @ 10:53 AM ET
Accurate, but not the right numbers. You want the ones not skewed by score effects and score-taking bias.

We shouldn't even be looking at the PO numbers to begin with... tiny sample size, not to mention same teams playing each other over and over exaggerating things. Look at the Pens regular season numbers instead, if you want a true indication of how their bottom-six fared this season. Then compare w/ the Flyers' bottom-six.

(if you're gonna lead w/ numbers, might as well know how to do it right... just helping you out bro)

- Tomahawk


Meh with him, you know he doesn't want to truly discuss it

I would be curious, even though it's small sample size, to see what the Pens did to Tampa that series
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 27 @ 10:53 AM ET
Accurate, but not the right numbers. You want the ones not skewed by score effects and score-taking bias.

We shouldn't even be looking at the PO numbers to begin with... tiny sample size, not to mention same teams playing each other over and over exaggerating things. Look at the Pens regular season numbers instead, if you want a true indication of how their bottom-six fared this season. Then compare w/ the Flyers' bottom-six.

(if you're gonna lead w/ numbers, might as well know how to do it right... just helping you out bro)

- Tomahawk


Nice, a good excuse to post this chart again.

http://stats.hockeyanalys...p=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

http://stats.hockeyanalys...p=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

May 27 @ 10:56 AM ET
For the record, I have never been wrong.
- Streit2ThePoint


Off the record, I sucked my thumb until I was 9.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 27 @ 10:56 AM ET
Nice, a good excuse to post this chart again.

http://stats.hockeyanalys...p=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

http://stats.hockeyanalys...p=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

- Feanor


JFC...knew it was bad, but woof
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 27 @ 10:56 AM ET
Accurate, but not the right numbers. You want the ones not skewed by score effects and score-taking bias.

We shouldn't even be looking at the PO numbers to begin with... tiny sample size, not to mention same teams playing each other over and over exaggerating things. Look at the Pens regular season numbers instead, if you want a true indication of how their bottom-six fared this season. Then compare w/ the Flyers' bottom-six.

(if you're gonna lead w/ numbers, might as well know how to do it right... just helping you out bro)

- Tomahawk



Not the right numbers, is an opinion, not a fact. In the context of the conversation and the point I was making, they're the right numbers. The discussion was based on watching playoff games, with the comments made by allinforflyers, so sample size is not an issue, in this context.
You're not helping me out, you're simply wrong. If you re-read my comments, I clearly stated that against good teams and especially in the playoffs, you're not going to have every line carry the play, and win the shot battle. Feel free to review my comments.
My very simple point is that this utopia of having every line, carry play, and not get out chanced or outshot, in certain situations and matchups, doesn't exist, especially when playing against good teams, and in the playoffs.
The numbers I gave support that opinion.
You're having a different conversation. It was not an analytics conversation, it was a conversation based on a certain point made.

It was not about comparing the Flyers bottom 6 to the Pens bottom 6. That is a different conversation.

Anytime you want to have an analytics conversation, I'll be happy to join you in that.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 27 @ 11:06 AM ET
Not the right numbers, is an opinion, not a fact. In the context of the conversation and the point I was making, they're the right numbers. The discussion was based on watching playoff games, with the comments made by allinforflyers, so sample size is not an issue, in this context.
You're not helping me out, you're simply wrong. If you re-read my comments, I clearly stated that against good teams and especially in the playoffs, you're not going to have every line carry the play, and win the shot battle. Feel free to review my comments.
My very simple point is that this utopia of having every line, carry play, and not get out chanced or outshot, in certain situations and matchups, doesn't exist, especially when playing against good teams, and in the playoffs.
The numbers I gave support that opinion.
You're having a different conversation. It was not an analytics conversation, it was a conversation based on a certain point made.

Anytime you want to have an analytics conversation, I'll be happy to join you in that.

- MJL


Would I be remiss in saying that it actually goes without saying that everyone knows that you won't win every battle, or is it a case that because I have repeatedly said that the Flyers should look to upgrade where they can but also acknowledging that they might not be able to address it all enough? When in the same thread, we have discussed how Laughton and Cousins aren't finished products yet, therefore knowing without expressly stating that they aren't winning every battle?

Because again, some things really don't need to be said, but if you're going to hang your hat on every word I say, at least wait until I am not around before you make it seem like I am saying something that I know isn't true
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 27 @ 11:06 AM ET
JFC...knew it was bad, but woof
- AllInForFlyers


Gagner did surprisingly well in possession numbers and had an even more surprising percentage of DZ starts. Some of that was from playing with Couturier, but it's still something to think about when there's talk of resigning White for a $1 million or more.

15-16 (Phi): 48.3% OZ starts
14-15 (Ari): 64.3%
07-14 (Edm): 52.5%
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 27 @ 11:11 AM ET
Gagner did surprisingly well in possession numbers and had an even more surprising percentage of DZ starts. Some of that was from playing with Couturier, but it's still something to think about when there's talk of resigning White for a $1 million or more.

15-16 (Phi): 48.3% OZ starts
14-15 (Ari): 64.3%
07-14 (Edm): 52.5%

- Feanor


I would probably move on from Gagner, but I could be open to a return if I thought the salary was spot-on for the role he would play

He did show improvement over the course of the season and I won't lie and say that I didn't think he competed against Washington, because he did
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

May 27 @ 11:12 AM ET
Go Sharks!!

Sorry Pens fans
(not really)
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

May 27 @ 11:13 AM ET
Go Sharks!!

Sorry Pens fans
(not really)

- BiggE


I don't loathe the Pens like I do the Rags, and Devils. But I don't really want to see them win a 4th Cup. It would annoy me.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 27 @ 11:15 AM ET
Go Sharks!!

Sorry Pens fans
(not really)

- BiggE

Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

May 27 @ 11:19 AM ET
I would probably move on from Gagner, but I could be open to a return if I thought the salary was spot-on for the role he would play

He did show improvement over the course of the season and I won't lie and say that I didn't think he competed against Washington, because he did

- AllInForFlyers


He'll probably get more elsewhere, but it was a choice of signing Gagner or White for one year at $1 million I know who I'd prefer.

I never thought he'd put up 40 points in Philly, so I had that right. But I also never thought Hakstol would use him with Couturier or in defensive matchup situations, so I had that totally wrong.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

May 27 @ 11:23 AM ET

- YuenglingJagr


Nice to have you aboard
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 27 @ 11:25 AM ET
He'll probably get more elsewhere, but it was a choice of signing Gagner or White for one year at $1 million I know who I'd prefer.

I never thought he'd put up 40 points in Philly, so I had that right. But I also never thought Hakstol would use him with Couturier or in defensive matchup situations, so I had that totally wrong.

- Feanor


he has enough hockey sense to play well. I don't know what to think about him, man. He teases me as a player. I agree that he has more tools to work with
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

May 27 @ 11:26 AM ET
I would probably move on from Gagner, but I could be open to a return if I thought the salary was spot-on for the role he would play

He did show improvement over the course of the season and I won't lie and say that I didn't think he competed against Washington, because he did

- AllInForFlyers


Watching these legit Cup contending teams compared to the Flyers is a pretty stark comparison just using the eye test. These teams don't have any dead wood out there. Flyers have a lot of work to do.
benjichronic
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 09.22.2014

May 27 @ 11:29 AM ET
Gonna go all in on a McIntosh MA230 Integrated Amp circa 1966-1967. At worst Ill be able to sell it for triple the purchase prices and at best I will never leave my room and just hug my records while glorious sounds wash over me.
- opeth_pa


So speaking of instruments/ nice music gear- local music store has a 60's guild starfire bass, BEAUTIFUL condition, $2250. I played it the other day, nicest instrument I've ever played. Pristine sound, you can fly on that neck, and Phil lesh my fave bass player played on for a while. I might have to pony up and buy that beautiful female dog
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

May 27 @ 11:30 AM ET
Max Talbot signed with the Russian team that lost everyone in that horrific plane crash a few years ago.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

May 27 @ 11:40 AM ET
Max Talbot signed with the Russian team that lost everyone in that horrific plane crash a few years ago.
- PLindbergh31


Gotta play for as long as you can, for a lot of guys
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

May 27 @ 11:40 AM ET
So speaking of instruments/ nice music gear- local music store has a 60's guild starfire bass, BEAUTIFUL condition, $2250. I played it the other day, nicest instrument I've ever played. Pristine sound, you can fly on that neck, and Phil lesh my fave bass player played on for a while. I might have to pony up and buy that beautiful female dog
- benjichronic


Sounds awesome..Just the ability to get an instrument that your favorite bass player used would make it worth.

Take some pics if you do it!
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 27 @ 11:45 AM ET
Nice to have you aboard
- Streit2ThePoint


I hope you dont mind me hopping on the bandwagon...I know it can offend some of the more long term fans
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