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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The Kempny You Keep
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pdx2ord
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Portland, OR
Joined: 09.02.2015

May 24 @ 1:42 PM ET
Another Powers profile - this time on TT and his plans for the summer:

https://theathletic.com/2...avainen-helsinki-finland/
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

May 24 @ 1:42 PM ET
Why not play him 60 min a game if it's simple math that equals production?

Teuvo has been more productive if you break down the math/TOI/gms played in his career and is younger.

- PatShart


What is the argument, that Panik isn't Panarin? Panik being called a "hit" is based on the fact that he was able to be utilized in numerous spots in our lineup, produced some points, wasn't a major liability defensively, was inexpensive and didn't require giving up a major piece to acquire. The Hawks need players like him going forward.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 24 @ 1:43 PM ET
Hey Rainman,

really liked the move by Stan and co. It's going to be interesting to see here going forward how things sort themselves out. Would love to keep Ladder, but know that's hardly a possibility.

Can they finally buyout Bickell...? They could use that 3mil. Still would be a cap penalty the following season. They also need to find a way to hang onto Shaw. And does CC get moved here to free things up? Should be an interesting June/July here.

Still would have loved to see TT moved for Drouin.

- DK002


Hey DK....

Hope all is well.

I agree on all fronts. Would love to keep Ladd but dont' think its feasible. Hope they keep Shaw but think that's cap related and wont' know that option until final number is tallied.

Huge summer for SB and company in the hockey ops department. I think buying out bickell will happen as I don't see anyone who said NO now, saying yes, when IF they wanted him could sign him cheap when he's bought out. I know the Hawks have shopped him for months.....

Curious to see how Bowman moves the deck chairs.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 24 @ 1:46 PM ET
Panik has 25g in 181 career games, and because he gets more ice time, he'll get that in 82gms next year?

I hope the guy does well, but I'd like to see him hit 12 in a full NHL season first before expecting 25 out of him

- PatShart


Thank you and I 100% agree with this and this line of thinking.

yes, the core should come back rested and hopefully put up numbers similar to career averages or slight improvements. I think that's fair to expect

However, to expect UNPROVEN assets to come in and replace proven assets with huge increases on all accounts I just dont' get. From Hartman to Motte to Panik to TVR and so on......a few will surprise, some will be OK, and a few will disappoint.

Seems so many just assume the next wave will have no hiccups in replacing guys and that's a dangerous thing to expect. I just keep pointing back to 2011 when guys like Morin, Skille, etc all were hyped and assumed to be "the next x" and while a few did, many did not.

PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

May 24 @ 1:50 PM ET
What is the argument, that Panik isn't Panarin? Panik being called a "hit" is based on the fact that he was able to be utilized in numerous spots in our lineup, produced some points, wasn't a major liability defensively, was inexpensive and didn't require giving up a major piece to acquire. The Hawks need players like him going forward.
- Chunk


No...the argument is Panik "has so much potential to be a 25+ goal scorer"....but TT is a bust, get rid of him, disappointment, etc

When TT is younger, in his first full NHL season had a better year than Panik ever had, helped this team actually win a Stanley Cup

It's great they gave nothing up for him. Really is. Hope he can be productive. But he actually has to do something before crowning him a top 6 player because he hasn't in his 180+ games in the league yet.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 24 @ 1:50 PM ET
What is the argument, that Panik isn't Panarin? Panik being called a "hit" is based on the fact that he was able to be utilized in numerous spots in our lineup, produced some points, wasn't a major liability defensively, was inexpensive and didn't require giving up a major piece to acquire. The Hawks need players like him going forward.
- Chunk


They do but to expect him or a TT to pot 25 goals just because of more ice time is unrealistic IMO. There are always exceptions to the rule but a monster jump by an unproven asset in regards to productivity and reliance in depth scoring seems very dangerous and careless to me.

IMO, the right way to do it is to have a 2-3 spots a year to be possible places to slide in an offensive or defensive unknown and gradually get them acclimated. I don't think Saad came out of the box gangbusters and needed time....and truthfully how many of these prospects that may earn a roster spot are projected to be a top 6 player? I dont' recall many, if any. I recall Schamaltz being comopared to a nice 3rd line player, etc.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

May 24 @ 1:51 PM ET
Why not play him 60 min a game if it's simple math that equals production?

Teuvo has been more productive if you break down the math/TOI/gms played in his career and is younger.

- PatShart


Des has 23 goals 5X5 Goals in 362 games in roughly the same amount of TOI. and is considered a serviceable NHL player.
TT has had 15 5x5 (2PP)goals in 115 games in 2-3 more TOI then panik in his career and was considered a top 10 NHL prospect at 20 and is still considered a big upside prospect at almost 22.
Panik has had 22 (3PP)5X5 goals in 181 games at 25 years old. YIf we get a player that is still a RFA for 2 more years that is a line better then Desjarden for nothing that has Size and speed and scores goals at almost the exact same rate as TT. I would think you would call him a find. The fact that you compared him to our top prospect and then called him not a find kind of ruined your argument.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

May 24 @ 1:52 PM ET
I think Gus has offensive upside but his defensive game needs work. At least he's more raw.

Rundblad is just a fringe NHL player and you know what you are getting there....and it's isn't anything good......

- SteveRain



I will agree, Gus is offensive alright
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

May 24 @ 1:56 PM ET
Des has 23 goals 5X5 Goals in 362 games in roughly the same amount of TOI. and is considered a serviceable NHL player.
TT has had 15 5x5 (2PP)goals in 115 games in 2-3 more TOI then panik in his career and was considered a top 10 NHL prospect at 20 and is still considered a big upside prospect at almost 22.
Panik has had 22 (3PP)5X5 goals in 181 games at 25 years old. YIf we get a player that is still a RFA for 2 more years that is a line better then Desjarden for nothing that has Size and speed and scores goals at almost the exact same rate as TT. I would think you would call him a find. The fact that you compared him to our top prospect and then called him not a find kind of ruined your argument.

- kmw4631


Panik was a 2nd round pick/#52 overal, not some unsigned FA that's on his third team.

Didn't ruin anything. Toews had 23g in regulation last year and you expect 24 out of Panik, based on all your funky math. I hope so for the Hawks sake and good luck with your expectations. I'll wait for you next year and fully expect you're "I told you so" next year when he actually hits 24g - not "mathematically should have had them"
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

May 24 @ 2:01 PM ET
I was thinking the same. They have shopped Pokka in the past.
- John Jaeckel

Free to the 1st taker for a 4th round pick.
We'll throw in an accordion to sweeten the deal.
TommyHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.23.2013

May 24 @ 2:14 PM ET
Not sure why many have been ragging on Gustafsson.

He was a rookie this past season who had 14 points and was a +11 in exactly half of a season this year. If he would have skated in all 82 games and would have finished with ~25 points, that would have been a pretty solid rookie campaign for a player that skated third-pairing minutes.

Not every rookie is going to have an all-star type campaign. He had a fine season overall. Sure he had his fair share of rookie mistakes, but that's not something that he can't build off of. Look at the growth that TvR had from last season to this season. If we can see something similar of Goose that will go a long way towards stabilizing the back end.

If Kempny lives up to the profile and his work in the KHL translates to the NHL, this defense should be much better heading forward and shouldn't be a concern.

The attention should absolutely turn to finding that first-line winger to play with Toews and provide offense. Can't expect Kane to have another 100+ point campaign to magically carry the offense again.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

May 24 @ 2:15 PM ET
Panik was a 2nd round pick/#52 overal, not some unsigned FA that's on his third team.

Didn't ruin anything. Toews had 23g in regulation last year and you expect 24 out of Panik, based on all your funky math. I hope so for the Hawks sake and good luck with your expectations. I'll wait for you next year and fully expect you're "I told you so" next year when he actually hits 24g - not "mathematically should have had them"

- PatShart


We had to give a guy that we dumped once and only took back because it was a 1 way deal and was never ever going to play in the NHL. For a player that you say is not a find. Who's small sample size of ice time projects that he can score goals on a high level. If he did what My quick math projected he would be a all-star (which is not what I'm saying) I'm saying that a 3rd line power speed winger that can put 5X5 goals at a solid rate (which is what he looks like he can do) and is cost controlled, I would consider a Find. We can disagree.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 24 @ 2:32 PM ET
Please explain the "hit" on Panik? His 8pts in 30gms?
- PatShart



Fair question, no one should confuse him with a top 6 player.

I, for one, was impressed by his energy and physical willingness enough to say—if he gives 100% effort night in, night out—he can be an effective third line player. Which if you look at theta they gave up for them, it's a win.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

May 24 @ 2:32 PM ET
Panik was a 2nd round pick/#52 overal, not some unsigned FA that's on his third team.

Didn't ruin anything. Toews had 23g in regulation last year and you expect 24 out of Panik, based on all your funky math. I hope so for the Hawks sake and good luck with your expectations. I'll wait for you next year and fully expect you're "I told you so" next year when he actually hits 24g - not "mathematically should have had them"

- PatShart


Here's an interesting article form Blackhawks Breakdown that looks at "primary points", which is goals and first assists. A couple of real interesting notes:

- Teravainen is 4th on the team in primary points and primary assists
- Panik is 3rd on the team in primary points per 60

https://blackhawksbreakdo...nts-during-even-strength/
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 24 @ 2:39 PM ET
Here's an interesting article form Blackhawks Breakdown that looks at "primary points", which is goals and first assists. A couple of real interesting notes:

- Teravainen is 4th on the team in primary points and primary assists
- Panik is 3rd on the team in primary points per 60

https://blackhawksbreakdo...nts-during-even-strength/

- DarthKane


SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

May 24 @ 2:41 PM ET
Wat about trying Panik on the Kane line(he makes everyone look good, even Versteeg), and Panarin with Toews and Hossa/TT?
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

May 24 @ 2:42 PM ET
No...the argument is Panik "has so much potential to be a 25+ goal scorer"....but TT is a bust, get rid of him, disappointment, etc

When TT is younger, in his first full NHL season had a better year than Panik ever had, helped this team actually win a Stanley Cup

It's great they gave nothing up for him. Really is. Hope he can be productive. But he actually has to do something before crowning him a top 6 player because he hasn't in his 180+ games in the league yet.

- PatShart


Gotcha. I misunderstood the comp to TT, and just thought it was a rail on Panik. I'm not saying he is for sure 1LW, but at a minimum a useful, cost effective (I guess we will see about that soon) and willing winger.

I was trying to figure out the "best" line mates for TT against the Blues that would be comparable to his success last year and the best I could come up with was Ladd-AA-TT. That way he would have to do as much heavy lifting, and just be a playmaker. It'll be interesting to see what the initial line combos look like (assuming there is minimal roster tinkering).
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 24 @ 2:44 PM ET
Here's an interesting article form Blackhawks Breakdown that looks at "primary points", which is goals and first assists. A couple of real interesting notes:

- Teravainen is 4th on the team in primary points and primary assists
- Panik is 3rd on the team in primary points per 60

https://blackhawksbreakdo...nts-during-even-strength/

- DarthKane



Aaaaaand here's where looking at scoring (points) only is, yet again, D-U-M

This is a valuable metric. What I'm more responding to is the comment that TT is being roasted for "not scoring enough." OK, that's stupid.

Going back to the Powers article, it is GREAT that the Hawks are emphasizing his defensive game first. Kids like Teuvo and Kane and some others come into the league and they know they can score, everyone knows they can score. But to become really effective NHL players, they have to get much better without the puck than they ever have.

Teuvo has BETTER defensive instincts than Kane ever had coming up. A great thing to build on. Plus the undeniable hockey sense, good hands, etc.

What concerns me a little is that the Powers piece talks about Teuvo spending time with his buddies out in the city, and playing golf and tennis.

I GUARANTEE you if this article was about Panarin or Tarasenko, they'd be talking about, yes, things like riding motorcycles, but also, definitely, spending hours in the gym. And not flexing in the mirror or hitting on chicks either.

It does not seem to be a priority for him and that is something to be at least a little concerned about because strength and physical confidence is what is holding him back right now across the board, with and without the puck.



John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 24 @ 2:44 PM ET
Wat about trying Panik on the Kane line(he makes everyone look good, even Versteeg), and Panarin with Toews and Hossa/TT?
- SimpleJack



What about getting a real top 6 LW?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

May 24 @ 2:45 PM ET
Here's an interesting article form Blackhawks Breakdown that looks at "primary points", which is goals and first assists. A couple of real interesting notes:

- Teravainen is 4th on the team in primary points and primary assists
- Panik is 3rd on the team in primary points per 60

https://blackhawksbreakdo...nts-during-even-strength/

- DarthKane


Noticeable also: how few primary points Toews and Hossa combined had (5X5) - 36 total - and (doing the math) 17 goals between them at 5X5.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

May 24 @ 2:51 PM ET
Aaaaaand here's where looking at scoring (points) only is, yet again, D-U-M

This is a valuable metric. What I'm more responding to is the comment that TT is being roasted for "not scoring enough." OK, that's stupid.

Going back to the Powers article, it is GREAT that the Hawks are emphasizing his defensive game first. Kids like Teuvo and Kane and some others come into the league and they know they can score, everyone knows they can score. But to become really effective NHL players, they have to get much better without the puck than they ever have.

Teuvo has BETTER defensive instincts than Kane ever had coming up. A great thing to build on. Plus the undeniable hockey sense, good hands, etc.

What concerns me a little is that the Powers piece talks about Teuvo spending time with his buddies out in the city, and playing golf and tennis.

I GUARANTEE you if this article was about Panarin or Tarasenko, they'd be talking about, yes, things like riding motorcycles, but also, definitely, spending hours in the gym. And not flexing in the mirror or hitting on chicks either.

It does not seem to be a priority for him and that is something to be at least a little concerned about because strength and physical confidence is what is holding him back right now across the board, with and without the puck.

- John Jaeckel



I agree, I just thought it was an interesting article to share, nothing more.

One of the main knocks against Teuvo in the past has been his lack of scoring, not necessarily his defensive play. This article shows that if secondary assists are removed then Teuvo's scoring is better than most us think.

I like that Teravainen has been developing/enhancing the defensive part of his game. Even if his point production doesn't improve he offers value to the team in a defensive role.

John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 24 @ 2:55 PM ET
I agree, I just thought it was an interesting article to share, nothing more.

One of the main knocks against Teuvo in the past has been his lack of scoring, not necessarily his defensive play. This article shows that if secondary assists are removed then Teuvo's scoring is better than most us think.

I like that Teravainen has been developing/enhancing the defensive part of his game. Even if his point production doesn't improve he offers value to the team in a defensive role.

- DarthKane


Points will come for him, I have no worries about that. It's what he does without the puck, and sometimes holding on to it in the rough going that needs to improve. I think they also need to decide what his best position is for now at least, and leave him there. I question whether he is confident and willing enough physically to maker others around him better at C (right now). He seems better at RW where the 200 ft. responsibilities are a little less.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 24 @ 2:57 PM ET
Aaaaaand here's where looking at scoring (points) only is, yet again, D-U-M

This is a valuable metric. What I'm more responding to is the comment that TT is being roasted for "not scoring enough." OK, that's stupid.

Going back to the Powers article, it is GREAT that the Hawks are emphasizing his defensive game first. Kids like Teuvo and Kane and some others come into the league and they know they can score, everyone knows they can score. But to become really effective NHL players, they have to get much better without the puck than they ever have.

Teuvo has BETTER defensive instincts than Kane ever had coming up. A great thing to build on. Plus the undeniable hockey sense, good hands, etc.

What concerns me a little is that the Powers piece talks about Teuvo spending time with his buddies out in the city, and playing golf and tennis.

I GUARANTEE you if this article was about Panarin or Tarasenko, they'd be talking about, yes, things like riding motorcycles, but also, definitely, spending hours in the gym. And not flexing in the mirror or hitting on chicks either.

It does not seem to be a priority for him and that is something to be at least a little concerned about because strength and physical confidence is what is holding him back right now across the board, with and without the puck.

- John Jaeckel



and I guess we can split hairs a little.....but....

in regards to scoring, Teuvo has NEVER produced consistently in the NHL so while we can say he's had success in the AHL or Europe it hasn't translated to the nHL level. Why is that? Nobody knows for sure....we can assume it's possible his skills aren't that good and to counter that we can blame coaching for his line mates or himself for not putting in the work off the ice to adapt to the NA game.

I 100% agree on the real concern is he just assumes, IMO based on the tone, that his game will just naturally evolve because it always has. That's a red flag to me if I'm in hockey ops and possibly why others took a pass on draft day after speaking with him predraft. IMO, he sounds like and comes off like the kid who was head and shoulders ABOVE everyone else and then was caught and now doesn't know or doesn't care how to adapt and get his god given advantage back.

Not fair to TT but the difference between him and 88, is that 88 will spend all summer honing his skill set to improve every year while TT does not and the production on the ice shows.

So to me, as a fan, that's why I am SOUR on this kid. Maybe one day the light goes off in his head, but how much longer can he be counted on to be a vital piece of this team moving forward, where in smaller sample sizes, he proves he can't produce with top skilled guys....Q gave him numerous lives with 81/19 and he bombed. TT also went 20+ something games without potting a goal.

While it's great that he is aware defensively, in the end it's coming down to how many you score vs how many you give up and it seems to me this team has too many guys defensively may be slightly above average, but in the roles of depth scoring they are killing this team.

Look back and see how great the 3rd lines were in 2010, 2013,2015 for cup wins. Until that problem is solved, they will lose a ton of games because their scoring will drop to an average less then 3 a game UNLESS the PP goes gangbusters and the PK becomes an iron clad shut down. Both are unrealistic to expect.

So to me, outside of the Shaw conversation in retention vs money wanted, the other hard conversation to be had is where does 86 REALISTICALLY slot long term because at this point....if thy feel its' bottom 6 then it may be time to shop him and sell high while you still can because I can't see any justification paying this kid a couple million on his next deal untl he proves he can be consistent depth scorer....because you already are paying a guy to be a defensive wizard with limited offensive production.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

May 24 @ 2:58 PM ET
Points will come for him, I have no worries about that. It's what he does without the puck, and sometimes holding on to it in the rough going that needs to improve. I think they also need to decide what his best position is for now at least, and leave him there. I question whether he is confident and willing enough physically to maker others around him better at C (right now). He seems better at RW where the 200 ft. responsibilities are a little less.
- John Jaeckel



Agreed again and Stan commented on the same during one post-season interview. Teuvo has played his best hockey for Chicago at RW, but I don't think he's been too bad at centre either. My preference would be to stick at RW, especially if that means he can have more consistent line mates throughout the season.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 24 @ 3:00 PM ET
Noticeable also: how few primary points Toews and Hossa combined had (5X5) - 36 total - and (doing the math) 17 goals between them at 5X5.
- StLBravesFan


Agreed and I attribute that to Hossa's drop off in ability to convert chances...would love know if a stat exists that shows primary chances vs conversion, as a rate for an individual. If it doesn't it should.....because it seemed a lot this year Hossa still got his chances but couldn't convert and that killed his goal scoring totals, Toews assist levels.

When Shaw came on top right before getting Ladd, they went on a run, which I think explains Shaw's totals being higher then I anticipated. Especially 5 on 5....

But to me, I think IMO it would be fair to assume 19/81s number to stay stagnant or drop IF Hossa stays on the line and doesn't bounce back from a few years ago AND they have a revolving door at 1lw.
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