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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The Kempny You Keep
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Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

May 25 @ 1:25 PM ET



They want to get this done (72) before next summer and the longer it drags on, generally speaking, the worse it goes for the incumbent club. And it will take like minimum, MINIMUM, 4.5 to over $5 million per to get it done. The dollars have to come from somewhere. Which also suggests something about point 3.

- John Jaeckel


Hard to believe 72s agent and the FO have not already bern talking for some time. Here is a scenario:

I am going to wager that much of the cost to cover 72 will come from who they lose during the expansion draft from what appears to be the very short list of unprotected players. Knowing that I would also wager that the replacement for that player (I am going to guess AA) will be yet another import from the KHL who will get an ELC, who just might be a buddy of 72.

Spitballing for sure, but I just have a gut feeling about things winding out that way.
stan-ley-cups
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Hawkeytown, IL
Joined: 02.27.2015

May 25 @ 1:28 PM ET
Good point and I bet as Sj and Pitts are 1 win away each, Bowman is doing fist pumps knowing his market for 33 is going up.

Great point on the draft exempt RFA status. Completely forgot about that.

- SteveRain


I agree though that the 4 teams goalies left are fairly solid but nothing to write home about. I mean Bishop got hurt so they HAD to go to their backup. STL has a revolving door now with Jake and Elwood, I mean Elliot, Pitt has the 22 year old with the vet Fleury not being too sharp and SJ has their #1, but he may be more of a #1A as he is still raw. Crawford would look absolutely amazing on one of those teams right now and could take any of them over the top. And of course, Dallas goalies were in disarray. They changed goalies more than a Red Sox / Yankee 15 inning game.

Perhaps Stan can fleece Nil and get back some assets for Crow.

I'm concerned that other teams may be looking to do exactly what we think the Hawks will try to do and that is possibly trade their #1 goalie or #1A or G in the wings for the fear of losing either the goalie or their solid backup in an expansion draft? That may flood the goalie market.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 25 @ 1:33 PM ET
Wiz,

Interestingly, when you take the exempt NMC players (of which they cant add any more players to), the exempt pending RFAs, and the exempt ELCs that are currently on the roster at least through the end of next season, only Kruger, AA, and if re-signed, Shaw, are currently exposed to the draft. It appears that the FO is looking to round out the holes in the roster this year with players that would have ELCs making them exempt from the draft as well.

- Return of the Roar


Yeah, I didn't say, but thought it.
New teams know that the way you get better is by filling around already schooled in a system prospects from the established organization and getting a chance to draft low enough to snag really nice long term potential guys.

Just want to post once so...

I am doubtful that the six foot swdish goalie is beng looked at along term fit as a NHL regular.
Darling is far from Crawford.
Crawford was asked to spend years to develop his game before given the chance to play in front of a solid line up that was defensivey solid.

When you draft a goaltender you want him to become your goalie.
Some like Gibson seem ready quicker.
I just don't view Darling as rady to play even half the games.

The comments about the Penguins, well, you have to add perspective.

Fleury out, a kid is asked to be and NHLer.
it is not the first time a younger unheard of plays well, cool the first year up.
Loads of examples
Some continue to become consistent netminders and win starting jobs, and others plateau to fair to middling after good video coaches start scheming to beat them.

Murray was a Pittsburgh bonus, surprise and boon.

Not really a planned strategy.

The goltending position seems to meld with the team concept in many games, with the skaters winning the games, as opposed to goaltender making poor decisions, just missing pucks where they are partially screened.
Abadseed
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Arlington hts, IL
Joined: 01.20.2014

May 25 @ 1:38 PM ET
Sounds quite a bit like Shaw, maybe Bowman and Co. think Lundberg could be his replacement if he wants too much $...

- Murph76



Could be bowmans way to lower Shaws leverage as well
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 25 @ 1:42 PM ET
In order:

1) See 2 and 4. If Bill Lundbergh is close to as advertised, then Shaw becomes a wee bit more expendable. And every decision they make this summer comes back to point 4. Do NOT kid yourselves.
2) See 4 and 6. On paper, and by reputation only at this point, these three Euro FA pickups are really encouraging are far as filling roles on this team.
3) See 4
4) They want to get this done before next summer and the longer it drags on, generally speaking, the worse it goes for the incumbent club. And it will take like minimum, MINIMUM, 4.5 to over $5 million per to get it done. The dollars have to come from somewhere. Which also suggests something about point 3.
5) Limited Cup window, if it's Teemu Fricking Selanne or Jagr or George Blanda but he can still pot 25 goals and play some d over 200 feet, who cares?
6) See 2. If Bowman hits on 65% of these players, especially Kempny, it's huge and kudos to him and the organization for pulling it off.

- John Jaeckel


Thanks and I 100% agree all revolves and points to 72. They can't lose out on a 2nd premier young player because of no cap space.

And lets also be honest, 72, unlike 20 isn't playing nice in the media when he flat out tells reporters he doesn't like the cap situation on more then 1 occasion. Tells me, he and his agent, have spoken at length about this and while he loves playing with 88, I'm sure he and his agent LOVE the totals he's putting up even more so to help drive his price up in the market.

72 is and will be their main focus until he signs OR it becomes apparent Bowman can't get it done and then he'll have to be dealt, like Saad, next June for a lesser package.......

I think lots of people are being naïve about the reality of 72 and the Hawks cap situation. I bet he wants north of 5 AAV and for a lesser term, if hawks want longer term that AAV will go further north.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

May 25 @ 2:02 PM ET
Thanks and I 100% agree all revolves and points to 72. They can't lose out on a 2nd premier young player because of no cap space.

And lets also be honest, 72, unlike 20 isn't playing nice in the media when he flat out tells reporters he doesn't like the cap situation on more then 1 occasion. Tells me, he and his agent, have spoken at length about this and while he loves playing with 88, I'm sure he and his agent LOVE the totals he's putting up even more so to help drive his price up in the market.

72 is and will be their main focus until he signs OR it becomes apparent Bowman can't get it done and then he'll have to be dealt, like Saad, next June for a lesser package.......

I think lots of people are being naïve about the reality of 72 and the Hawks cap situation. I bet he wants north of 5 AAV and for a lesser term, if hawks want longer term that AAV will go further north.

- SteveRain


Offer sheet compensation refresher (last summer's numbers, so the brackets will probably increase by summer 2017):

Under $5.5 - 1st and 3rd round pick - but I'd guess the Hawks would match $5.5 - and that Panarin wouldn't sign one until it got to to the next bracket.

$5.5-$7.3 - 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick - and the bidder must have those picks (their own) available.



gifman
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Gifland
Joined: 09.17.2015

May 25 @ 2:04 PM ET
Hey JJ,

What is the organ-i-zations feelings about Patrick Kane currently? It's almost been a year since the rape allegations and we saw first hand that the Front Office was

I ask because:
- Currently he has no legal issues pending. (At least none that we know of)
- He had an MVP type season.
- Like in any market, you sell high and buy low, ie, this might be the best time to get a lot of value back for a guy who has issues and damages the brand. I think we can fleece a team of a lot of high rated players (see Buffalo).
- This move would free up cap restraints and instead of paying 1 guy 10.5 mil, we can spread it out to 2-3 players depending on the return.

This post is meant to stir lively debate and what if scenario's for the general forum audience. This is not a troll post.


Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

May 25 @ 2:09 PM ET
Offer sheet compensation refresher (last summer's numbers, so the brackets will probably increase by summer 2017):

Under $5.5 - 1st and 3rd round pick - but I'd guess the Hawks would match $5.5 - and that Panarin wouldn't sign one until it got to to the next bracket.

$5.5-$7.3 - 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick - and the bidder must have those picks (their own) available.

- StLBravesFan


So using $5.5MM as the theoretical number, if the Hawks lose AA in the expansion draft, they only need to find $950K to lock up 72.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 25 @ 2:10 PM ET
Hey JJ,

What is the organ-i-zations feelings about Patrick Kane currently? It's almost been a year since the rape allegations and we saw first hand that the Front Office was

I ask because:
- Currently he has no legal issues pending. (At least none that we know of)
- He had an MVP type season.
- Like in any market, you sell high and buy low, ie, this might be the best time to get a lot of value back for a guy who has issues and damages the brand. I think we can fleece a team of a lot of high rated players (see Buffalo).
- This move would free up cap restraints and instead of paying 1 guy 10.5 mil, we can spread it out to 2-3 players depending on the return.

This post is meant to stir lively debate and what if scenario's for the general forum audience. This is not a troll post.



- gifman


I'd say baring any legal issues that come about, there is a better chance of one us becoming the Hawks GM then the Hawks trading Kane........especially after his last season.

Of course, he screws up again and burns the bridge with McDonough and Wirtz then he easily could become to a higher degree the Seguin situation that happened in Boston.
grinder10
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
Joined: 04.04.2009

May 25 @ 2:18 PM ET
I know it's been long rumored but still haven't seen concrete as Vegas is a GO and that the expansion draft will take place in the NHL fiscal calendar of 2016-17 which then would negate the premise that they have 3 goalies because the kid the just signed is a FA.

Now, having to travel Vegas FAR too often for work that stadium is done and sittign there and you would think the fact of the Raiders going to Vegas for NFL takes some pressure off of the NHL for holding out a team relocating there, say Arizona, for whatever concerns.

So I guess in short I don't discount what you are saying but until we see an actual date for an expansion draft in 2016-17 I just have to assume there could be other possibilities for the Hawks signing this goalie out of Sweeden and based upon how heavily they scout that area, and Qs love for Darling, I woudlnt' put it past them in shopping CC......especially with a monster raise due 72 next year.

- SteveRain


Yep. Tough to dismiss that possibility Steve
dstainer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.25.2011

May 25 @ 2:20 PM ET
Lastly thinking out loud here......

IF and that's a huge IF they were entertaining trading 50......

1. I think he has to go east as the hawks woudlnt' want him to be a road block to a conference championship.

2. Any GM looking to take him either has to have a young team right on the verge of taking that next step OR a team that has made playoff appearances but bombed out.

3. To me....I can think of 2 possible locations that CC may go to: NY Islanders OR Ottawa.

NY Isladers: Halak continues to get hurt and Greiss bombed out. For as strong as Washington is/was, or Tampa, or Pitts, you put a goalie like CC behind that team and they immediately take the next step. Plus it helps IN market take some spot light from the NYR

Ottawa as it's a Canadian team and while Montreal is probably his wet dream, baring a Price trade or retirement this would make the most sense.

No idea on how both teams sit cap wise, but just on pure premise this make sense to me AND probably 2 spots CC wouldn't have an issue waiving his NMC to go.

IF it's Darling....I think the market for him is open to anyone and with the copy cat league, if it's SJ vs Pitts, that helps Bowman's asking price even further.

Gotta think 1 will be moved.....

- SteveRain


The Kings sent Jones to the East (Bruins)... Only to see him come right back to the same division within 1-2 weeks. You don't think the Blues/Stars wouldn't try and pry Crawford from the team in the east.
grinder10
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
Joined: 04.04.2009

May 25 @ 2:26 PM ET
Don't disagree at all......but moving Darling doesn't save much cap space in the difference between him and the Swede. Unless this swede is a helluva upgrade over Darling it's baffling......And Q loves him size in net and has raved at times about Darling.

As for the off ice variable you mentioned I have 2 counter parts.....1. The whole spraining off the ankle last year that the Hawks publically shamed Crawford into dealing with and his reputation of being a booze hound......2. Campbell ALSO had his lady from here with her family but took the deal to South beach.

Nobody knows how much of a sticking point that would be, but just something to ponder. Just a fascinating move by Bowman.

- SteveRain


With the current and projected cap, projected contract statuses and expansion draft, Bowman could be several steps ahead of the rest of us. Feel like we may be frequently grasping a straws as we're outside the bubble
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

May 25 @ 2:52 PM ET
Hey JJ,

What is the organ-i-zations feelings about Patrick Kane currently? It's almost been a year since the rape allegations and we saw first hand that the Front Office was

I ask because:
- Currently he has no legal issues pending. (At least none that we know of)
- He had an MVP type season.
- Like in any market, you sell high and buy low, ie, this might be the best time to get a lot of value back for a guy who has issues and damages the brand. I think we can fleece a team of a lot of high rated players (see Buffalo).
- This move would free up cap restraints and instead of paying 1 guy 10.5 mil, we can spread it out to 2-3 players depending on the return.

This post is meant to stir lively debate and what if scenario's for the general forum audience. This is not a troll post.



- gifman



Unless its McDavid+Nurse or Eichel+Ristolainen coming back, then the Hawks come out of that trade as a worse team both in the short and long term. Kane is a GENERATIONAL HALL OF FAME TALENT. The guy has improved year after year and last year's fiasco seems to have aged him A LOT. Patrick Kane should retire as a Blackhawk with the most points in Franchise History.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 25 @ 2:54 PM ET
With the current and projected cap, projected contract statuses and expansion draft, Bowman could be several steps ahead of the rest of us. Feel like we may be frequently grasping a straws as we're outside the bubble
- grinder10


I agree. hes' a step ahead with the European FA signings and this may be more important then draft picks as these guys are ready to play now and fulfill the holes left by role players while the core is in achampionship window
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 25 @ 2:56 PM ET
The Kings sent Jones to the East (Bruins)... Only to see him come right back to the same division within 1-2 weeks. You don't think the Blues/Stars wouldn't try and pry Crawford from the team in the east.
- dstainer


Could but Dallas has money tied up to Niemi and Lehtonen for years so that isn't possible....and Allen is the future in STL as they need to lock up their core.

A team like Winnipeg is probably an option......or maybe Edmonton....but I don't know if CC would waive to go to either place.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

May 25 @ 2:59 PM ET
Could but Dallas has money tied up to Niemi and Lehtonen for years so that isn't possible....and Allen is the future in STL as they need to lock up their core.

A team like Winnipeg is probably an option......or maybe Edmonton....but I don't know if CC would waive to go to either place.

- SteveRain


Winnipeg might be a Cup Contender by 19/20. They have a STOCKPILE of high end talent in their system and this Laine guy should make their team this fall. Winnipeg will be the team to beat in the division before too long...IF these prospects are as good as all the hype.....which is always a big if.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

May 25 @ 3:16 PM ET
Trading Kane means:

some team (like Buffalo) overpays with current developing prospects, and the hawks gain a few years until those low selected players are gonna want over bloated evander kane type deals to continue on the job training.

I am not saying that the Blackhawks couldn't get Cap relief and a nice return, but...

you in essense are lowering your chances of winning now, and telling your sold out stadium fans (85% of which have Kane jerseys) to pay the ticket price for a new look, with one less true impact player to lead, but more youngsters who are going to be looking for TT & Panarin big boy deals.
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

May 25 @ 3:22 PM ET
When they lockout again, I'm sure that will be brought up, and depending upon how the Canadian dollar is holding up it will be fascinating to see how the Canadian owners in Ottawa, Calgary, and Edmonton feel about the cap going up.

One thing I am excited about is to see how Bowman navigates these next 12 months. He has to make a LOT of calls that will have long term effects on this team's ability to maximize it's potential to win in the core's realistic "prime window".

By that I mean....
-he has to make a call on Shaw.
-he has to continue to stay ahead of the curve in the European market and use his draft picks as tradeable assets for in season improvements.
-he has 3 goalies on his roster, does he dangle 50 or 33?
-how does he keep 72's AAV in a team friendly area but not having to trade another young player entering his prime?
-finding young talent who can finish to play alongside 19
-making the right calls on 57/86 if their progression , more so 86, stays stagnant
-continuing to find depth players to step in a fit "roles" that previous generation of cup winners had (Bolland, Frolik, Shaw (possibly) Buff Brouwer)
-convincing picks to sign here and not go the Hayes route for a chance to compete for a roster spot

Not an easy job. I keep saying it but I really feel this SUMMER like 2010 is probably their biggest obstacle in the Bowman/McDonough era to keep this team on the door step for a cup.

- SteveRain


I think that one of the underlying reason he has drafted a bunch of local kids lately (Hartmann, Louis, Hinostroza, Schmaltz, ...) is because assuming they grew up loving the Hawks, they will be less likely to go the Hayes route and want to sign with the hometown team.
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

May 25 @ 3:46 PM ET
Trading Kane means:

some team (like Buffalo) overpays with current developing prospects, and the hawks gain a few years until those low selected players are gonna want over bloated evander kane type deals to continue on the job training.

I am not saying that the Blackhawks couldn't get Cap relief and a nice return, but...

you in essense are lowering your chances of winning now, and telling your sold out stadium fans (85% of which have Kane jerseys) to pay the ticket price for a new look, with one less true impact player to lead, but more youngsters who are going to be looking for TT & Panarin big boy deals.

- wiz1901


Yes.

Patrick Kane is probably the most dynamic offensive player in the NHL right now. He has proven that he can take just about anyone (Handzus, RIchards, etc,) and form an effective/dangerous line, and once you place him with higher skilled players (Toews, Panarin,...) he is even better.

Trading him gets you a package of potential and some cap relief, but sends completely the wrong message to not just the players on the team but more importantly like you say Wiz, the fans.

If you think being a hometown boy makes Buffalo the most logical place to be traded, what package of players gets that deal done, and more realistically, why would the Sabres do it? Does some combination of Eichel, Reinhardt, Kane, Bogosian, Fasching, O'Reilly get it done for P. Kane. I'm leaning heavily on NO.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

May 25 @ 3:47 PM ET
Yes.

Patrick Kane is probably the most dynamic offensive player in the NHL right now. He has proven that he can take just about anyone (Handzus, RIchards, etc,) and form an effective/dangerous line, and once you place him with higher skilled players (Toews, Panarin,...) he is even better.

Trading him gets you a package of potential and some cap relief, but sends completely the wrong message to not just the players on the team but more importantly like you say Wiz, the fans.

If you think being a hometown boy makes Buffalo the most logical place to be traded, what package of players gets that deal done, and more realistically, why would the Sabres do it? Does some combination of Eichel, Reinhardt, Kane, Bogosian, Fasching, O'Reilly get it done for P. Kane. I'm leaning heavily on NO.

- TheTrob


and when you factor in what would be needed back.....how much cap space are you really saving? I bet it's not a TON.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 25 @ 3:49 PM ET
Don't disagree at all......but moving Darling doesn't save much cap space in the difference between him and the Swede. Unless this swede is a helluva upgrade over Darling it's baffling......And Q loves him size in net and has raved at times about Darling.

As for the off ice variable you mentioned I have 2 counter parts.....1. The whole spraining off the ankle last year that the Hawks publically shamed Crawford into dealing with and his reputation of being a booze hound......2. Campbell ALSO had his lady from here with her family but took the deal to South beach.

Nobody knows how much of a sticking point that would be, but just something to ponder. Just a fascinating move by Bowman.

- SteveRain


Exactly, and while we all love Darling, the same guys arguing that Darling has all this trade value don't think he could step up and assume #1 if Crawford is dealt. Doesn't make sense.



John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 25 @ 3:51 PM ET
Hard to believe 72s agent and the FO have not already bern talking for some time. Here is a scenario:

I am going to wager that much of the cost to cover 72 will come from who they lose during the expansion draft from what appears to be the very short list of unprotected players. Knowing that I would also wager that the replacement for that player (I am going to guess AA) will be yet another import from the KHL who will get an ELC, who just might be a buddy of 72.

Spitballing for sure, but I just have a gut feeling about things winding out that way.

- Return of the Roar


I think that's a losing bet. The Marcus Kruger "I'll wait until you guys are ready" scenario is rare. And it just never applies to a guy due for a $25 million payday. Not with agents involved. And Panarin's own words a few weeks ago point to things not exactly on the best offing right now.
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

May 25 @ 3:52 PM ET
and when you factor in what would be needed back.....how much cap space are you really saving? I bet it's not a TON.
- SteveRain


Correct. The only difference is you fill multiple spots as opposed to one.

The other thing to consider is P. Kane has still not reached the top of his game yet. Maybe he came close this year, but he has shown to be a player who has improved each and every season. In addition, imagine the numbers he puts up if ANY other line on the Hawks showed consistent production this season. At a certain point teams knew the best chance was to shut him down and force others to beat you and they concentrated their matchups against him, and he still put up spectacular numbers.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 25 @ 3:54 PM ET
Thanks and I 100% agree all revolves and points to 72. They can't lose out on a 2nd premier young player because of no cap space.

And lets also be honest, 72, unlike 20 isn't playing nice in the media when he flat out tells reporters he doesn't like the cap situation on more then 1 occasion. Tells me, he and his agent, have spoken at length about this and while he loves playing with 88, I'm sure he and his agent LOVE the totals he's putting up even more so to help drive his price up in the market.

72 is and will be their main focus until he signs OR it becomes apparent Bowman can't get it done and then he'll have to be dealt, like Saad, next June for a lesser package.......

I think lots of people are being naïve about the reality of 72 and the Hawks cap situation. I bet he wants north of 5 AAV and for a lesser term, if hawks want longer term that AAV will go further north.

- SteveRain


We're talking a $20 million plus deal, AAV likely $5 million per. The Hawks know it. They intend to pay it. It's the how part that people are really avoiding facing up to.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 25 @ 3:56 PM ET
Trading Kane means:

some team (like Buffalo) overpays with current developing prospects, and the hawks gain a few years until those low selected players are gonna want over bloated evander kane type deals to continue on the job training.

I am not saying that the Blackhawks couldn't get Cap relief and a nice return, but...

you in essense are lowering your chances of winning now, and telling your sold out stadium fans (85% of which have Kane jerseys) to pay the ticket price for a new look, with one less true impact player to lead, but more youngsters who are going to be looking for TT & Panarin big boy deals.

- wiz1901


Kane is not getting traded. Unless there's another serious incident, then all bets are off. If he keeps his name out of the papers form June-October, he's not going anywhere.
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