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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Three Names “In Play”
Author Message
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 12 @ 8:26 AM ET
No whispers involved yet for me...But it comes down to if Shaw resigns-Then the most feasible trade options are TT/Kruger and AA. That's the way I see it....
After that more drastic measures and a lot more risk.

If the Hawks keep TT and Kruger, then I think they have to strongly consider dealing AA.

But of the 4 I mentioned at least 2 will be elsewhere is my view.

- Al


The truth is, the Hawks could find a way to trade anyone on their roster. NMC, NTC, doesn't matter. For every guy who has been traded just after signing a new deal, there have been 50 traded in spite of a NMC or NTC.

But here's what it comes down to:

- The guy's profile and ability
- His cap hit
- The market for the player (AT HIS CAP HIT)
- How easily (or not) the Hawks can replace what he does and what that costs (or not)

I do think things like marketing, leadership, etc come into play with 19 and 88. Certain guys are just insane values: Keith, Hammer.

In the end, as I filter all of it through that, compare it against what I've heard, I will respectfully demur with Al, and say I don't think AA or Kruger are going anywhere. I think TT or CC very well could, and the chances of Shaw moving increase day by day.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

May 12 @ 8:29 AM ET
stan is leveraged...you dont get value back when you are in his position; a CC trade requires taking minimal salary back...you would hope that minimal salary is a guy on his ELC with some big time potential
- bogiedoc


If there's a market for the player you're trying to move - two or more teams bidding - cap or no cap - you should get value back.
wolphnuts12
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 05.22.2012

May 12 @ 8:41 AM ET
OK, this sort of undermines your whole argument.

Crawford was huge in both 2013 and especially 2015 when a lot of people thought he deserved the Smythe. I haven't always been a huge Crawford fan, til the last two years when he stepped up to truly elite status. One illustration, I heard last year (from an NHL scout) that some in the Devils front office thought Crawford was better than Schneider, their guy, who is a very good goalie.

Today you have said Steve Mason is a top 5 goalie in the NHL, and now the above.

I find your sources jokes amusing. But stupid, because it seems you have your head buried in some other things too much to know what goes on in this blog and on the Hawks. My skin has gotten a little thicker doing this than to worry about the opinions of some guys working in an office in Norristown, who confuse the Flyers Goalie du Jour with Ken Dryden.

BTW, I have seen Steve Mason do his human sieve imitation about 20-30 times in person.

I'll be here all night.


- John Jaeckel


I don't think Mason is great. And I think I said top 5 regular season goalie (not sure). Put it this way - and this is my main point that I got away from - you said the Crawford to the Flyers wasn't sourced, but just made sense. How does this make sense from the Flyers perspective? Who would you expect them to give up for Crawford? Do you think you would receive something of real value or do you think they should have other priorities? The Flyers have multiple high-end defensive prospects that should be arriving little by little over the next few years. Ghost came up and did well. They say Provorov is the best of the lot. Morin is supposed to be a monster back there. Haag is supposedly good. As I stated before, they probably need to upgrade their attack since it looks like they have 2 4th lines. It would make sense for them to want to get rid of a high priced d-man. Streit has 1 year left, so keeping him is probably fine while the rookies come up. You want Andy MacDonald and his contract? Probably not. So what sensible offer do you think the Flyers would make for Crawford? Exactly - nothing makes sense from their end.

And Norristown is awful! lol.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

May 12 @ 8:58 AM ET
The truth is, the Hawks could find a way to trade anyone on their roster. NMC, NTC, doesn't matter. For every guy who has been traded just after signing a new deal, there have been 50 traded in spite of a NMC or NTC.

But here's what it comes down to:

- The guy's profile and ability
- His cap hit
- The market for the player (AT HIS CAP HIT)
- How easily (or not) the Hawks can replace what he does and what that costs (or not)

I do think things like marketing, leadership, etc come into play with 19 and 88. Certain guys are just insane values: Keith, Hammer.

In the end, as I filter all of it through that, compare it against what I've heard, I will respectfully demur with Al, and say I don't think AA or Kruger are going anywhere. I think TT or CC very well could, and the chances of Shaw moving increase day by day.

- John Jaeckel


What's for sure, someone's going away. Shouldn't get raked over the coals this year though.

i'll tell you though, if it is CC, somebody better be taking that Bickell cap with him. You could argue CC and Bickell for a up and coming Dman is a good deal. 10 mil of cap space and a 4th dman.

Hate that this is the conversation every end of the season. 5 or 6 more years of it and there won't be anyone left
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

May 12 @ 8:59 AM ET
If there's a market for the player you're trying to move - two or more teams bidding - cap or no cap - you should get value back.
- StLBravesFan


agree..but stan has been bidding vs himself and losing
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

May 12 @ 9:03 AM ET
What's for sure, someone's going away. Shouldn't get raked over the coals this year though.

i'll tell you though, if it is CC, somebody better be taking that Bickell cap with him. You could argue CC and Bickell for a up and coming Dman is a good deal. 10 mil of cap space and a 4th dman.

Hate that this is the conversation every end of the season. 5 or 6 more years of it and there won't be anyone left

- vabeachbear


toew/kane/hammy = 33
seabs/keith/cc = 36

well we should have lottery picks again by then
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

May 12 @ 9:05 AM ET
agree..but stan has been bidding vs himself and losing
- bogiedoc


Seems to be so.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 12 @ 9:13 AM ET
I don't think Mason is great. And I think I said top 5 regular season goalie (not sure). Put it this way - and this is my main point that I got away from - you said the Crawford to the Flyers wasn't sourced, but just made sense. How does this make sense from the Flyers perspective? Who would you expect them to give up for Crawford? Do you think you would receive something of real value or do you think they should have other priorities? The Flyers have multiple high-end defensive prospects that should be arriving little by little over the next few years. Ghost came up and did well. They say Provorov is the best of the lot. Morin is supposed to be a monster back there. Haag is supposedly good. As I stated before, they probably need to upgrade their attack since it looks like they have 2 4th lines. It would make sense for them to want to get rid of a high priced d-man. Streit has 1 year left, so keeping him is probably fine while the rookies come up. You want Andy MacDonald and his contract? Probably not. So what sensible offer do you think the Flyers would make for Crawford? Exactly - nothing makes sense from their end.

And Norristown is awful! lol.

- wolphnuts12


What I think would make sense is Mason plus, say, a 2nd round pick for Crawford.

Why I think it makes sense for the Flyers: they are a good team, with a GREAT young coach, a great young defenseman, a team on the rise.

If/WHEN the Flyers make the playoffs next year, their goaltending situation is SO much better to make a deep run with Crawford and Neuvirth versus what they have now, it's not even debatable man!

Sure, if the Flyers really think Neuvirth is THE GUY who can take them to the Promised Land, then it's not a great move.

But if they have any doubt, then the move makes some sense, maybe a lot of sense, because Corey Crawford IS that guy. The "great team in front of him" argument—which I used to champion right here—ended in 2014-15, when the Hawks defense started to show some cracks, Corsi For other teams went up, quality chances went up, Crawford SHINED. He really carried the team through much of that season, and despite a first round hiccup versus Nashville, he was lights out against Minnesota, Anaheim and especially Tampa. This year, were it not for the injury late in the season, he and Holtby were the only two locks as Vezina finalists. The Hawks defense was even worse this year. Across almost all statistical measures, yet Crawford had his best year.

You add $1.8 million in cap hit, true, but you swap out a guy who is just way to unreliable and really is at best a 1B—at best—for a legit top 5 goalie.

For the Hawks, it's a cap move.

So that's the rationale. Thanks for discussing it rationally. Cheers. I went to school in Pottstown, I know Norristown well, was just kidding.
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

May 12 @ 9:17 AM ET
...and possibly as much as $4-5 million the following season, when Panarin is due.

If Darling starts next season and does well he will make $3-$4 mil the following season, and they have to pay a back-up.

Right now the cap hit on both goalies is $6.6 mill....There isn't $4 mill in savings to be had.

They could accomplish similar or more cap savings by dealing 2/3 of the 4
I mentioned and Bowman will probably sleep better.

- Al


IIRC, they can extend Darling on July 1st. If that is the case, they should offer him 1.5-2 for 3 or 4 years, then look to trade CC (if they feel Darling can be a #1). I would like to know cheap backup options that are out there. PIT has 3 goalies, and it appears that they're moving forward with Murray. Zatkoff looked good in game 1 vs the Rangers, and while he gave up 4 goals on 20 shots in game 2, it was more defense than him (2 cross-ice passes and a breakaway). If they could sign him for cheap, trading CC for a 4D could result in significant cap savings. It could also hurt PIT, because they would either have to keep MAF at his cap hit, or take a goalie back in trade which would offset the cap savings. I'm more familiar with PIT's situation than most of the other teams, so what other backup goalie options may be out there for less than 1.5 per year?
wolphnuts12
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 05.22.2012

May 12 @ 9:23 AM ET
What I think would make sense is Mason plus, say, a 2nd round pick for Crawford.

Why I think it makes sense for the Flyers: they are a good team, with a GREAT young coach, a great young defenseman, a team on the rise.

If/WHEN the Flyers make the playoffs next year, their goaltending situation is SO much better to make a deep run with Crawford and Neuvirth versus what they have now, it's not even debatable man!

Sure, if the Flyers really think Neuvirth is THE GUY who can take them to the Promised Land, then it's not a great move.

But if they have any doubt, then the move makes some sense, maybe a lot of sense, because Corey Crawford IS that guy. The "great team in front of him" argument—which I used to champion right here—ended in 2014-15, when the Hawks defense started to show some cracks, Corsi For other teams went up, quality chances went up, Crawford SHINED. He really carried the team through much of that season, and despite a first round hiccup versus Nashville, he was lights out against Minnesota, Anaheim and especially Tampa. This year, were it not for the injury late in the season, he and Holtby were the only two locks as Vezina finalists. The Hawks defense was even worse this year. Across almost all statistical measures, yet Crawford had his best year.

You add $1.8 million in cap hit, true, but you swap out a guy who is just way to unreliable and really is at best a 1B—at best—for a legit top 5 goalie.

For the Hawks, it's a cap move.

So that's the rationale. Thanks for discussing it rationally. Cheers. I went to school in Pottstown, I know Norristown well, was just kidding.

- John Jaeckel


No - Norristown is awful. That was the truest thing I've read on this board. Kidding. Oh - so the Blackhawks basically want nothing in return? That changes things. So it's be $ million cap hit for 4 years? I've never liked giving out long contracts to goalies, but the Flyers should have a lot of rookie deals to offset that. Okay. I changed my mind. I'd do that deal. I thought the Blackhawks would want players too.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

May 12 @ 9:33 AM ET
He could play either role. His weakness in the dot makes him almost better as a 2C though. He's good defensively, not as good defensively as Kruger across the board. And he's more productive offensively. So he's #2, Kruger's #3.
- John Jaeckel


In the world where Shaw is gone next year, is Rassmussen the presumptive 4C? I personally can't see them using TT as a center going forward.
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

May 12 @ 9:36 AM ET
No I can not, because it is serious (Bronson Pinchot, Beverly Hills Cop)


I heard last summer the Hawks knew he would be a force.

They scouted him, they saw the shot, the crazy puck skill, the skating, the work ethic. Really, they would have been kinda stupid not to see it. Right? Right.

But everyone wants to trade two guys who signed new deals in the last 12 months today.
So whatever works . . .

- John Jaeckel


Totally agree on this. All of us armchair, fantasy GMs forget the actual human element.

The Hawks had hours and hours of negotiations over many months w Seabrook (for example) and his agent. Exchange proposals. Discuss how important he is to the team, the team's future, etc. Sign him to a $50+ MILLION contract. Give him a full NMC. Then trade him 4 months later? Cmon Already!
grinder10
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
Joined: 04.04.2009

May 12 @ 9:41 AM ET
I know, I'm just making an excuse to get Johns back.

Dallas pays an awful lot for 2 goalies that are sub-par at best.

- DarthKane


Got a feeling the Stars will be looking for an upgrade in net. They were as bad (or worse) as many expected.

Don't like the defense much either. The former Hawks seemed best to my eyes. They don't pass well enough or defend well enough
wolphnuts12
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 05.22.2012

May 12 @ 9:44 AM ET
His blog is saying that the Hawks are shopping said pieces, no where does it state that there are teams lining up begging for said pieces.

- Hossa1881


He said that Philly was a team to watch when it comes to Crawford...
wolphnuts12
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 05.22.2012

May 12 @ 9:53 AM ET
If Steve Mason is in the top 5 and Crawford is not elite who the hell does he consider to be elite?!

Despite the allegedly Vezina-quality season J. Quick had (still a head scratcher of a finalist IMO) I would take Crawford over him every time. As for the other finalists, Holtby had a monster regular season and then looked totally human in the playoffs. Bishop has done great but has a fantastic blueline in front of him, which Crawford certainly did not this year.

- maria_wyeth


So you agree that you don't need a GREAT goalie...just a good, maybe above-average one and a fantastic blueline? That's what I would want.

And who would I want over Crawford? Well assuming you're looking at it in a vacuum based solely on skills and not contract status or age...he wasn't a Vezina finalist, so I guess I'd start with those 3. I think Rask is better. Lundquist is probably better (though it seems like his decline in imminent), Carey Price, Schneider, Luongo (he's better now than he was those last years in VAN). I think ANA has a good goalie too. Maybe Bob when healthy? Maybe not. So that would put Crawford at around 10th in the league...which is about right. And I'm sure I'm missing a few guys. One you get out of the top 3 or 5 goalies, I think it has more to do with the surrounding pieces.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

May 12 @ 9:54 AM ET
Got a feeling the Stars will be looking for an upgrade in net. They were as bad (or worse) as many expected.

Don't like the defense much either. The former Hawks seemed best to my eyes. They don't pass well enough or defend well enough

- grinder10


the 10 mil fin twins are finnished...you cant be pulling your goalie once a week and have a boom/bust cycle every other game in the playoffs...neither has shown they can put good BTB good games together let alone a series...

talk about stuck with lehtonen @ 6 mil with 2 years left = bow wow; and the stars have no clue about defensive zone coverage....constantly looking to counter
jt19
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: LAINGSBURG, MI
Joined: 11.20.2008

May 12 @ 10:08 AM ET
#CapFriendly CONFIRMED: Gustav Forsling CHI 3yr ELC -
$872,500 cap hit
2016 - $767,500
2017 - $925,000
2018 - $925,000 +Games Played bonuses
stan-ley-cups
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Hawkeytown, IL
Joined: 02.27.2015

May 12 @ 10:09 AM ET
Andersen would be the guy, i don't think they part with Gibson.

If the market is Crawford, Andersen or Howard, Crawford heads the market.

- John Jaeckel


Looks like Dallas could use a guy like Crawford. That was pathetic last night.
stan-ley-cups
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Hawkeytown, IL
Joined: 02.27.2015

May 12 @ 10:17 AM ET
Do San Jose or Nashville match up against the Blues well??? Maybe I'm reading too much into the Blues beating up on a Seguin-less weak Dallas team whose D and goaltending are terrible. But I thought Dallas was the last chance to stop the Blues...
- DMChi2010


Don't think so. That's why Q I believe said something along the lines like that felt like it was the WCF.
spanky
Joined: 07.12.2010

May 12 @ 10:19 AM ET
Totally agree on this. All of us armchair, fantasy GMs forget the actual human element.

The Hawks had hours and hours of negotiations over many months w Seabrook (for example) and his agent. Exchange proposals. Discuss how important he is to the team, the team's future, etc. Sign him to a $50+ MILLION contract. Give him a full NMC. Then trade him 4 months later? Cmon Already!

- Cmonalready



Hey, have you forgotten the 4 M dollar signing of Bickell for four F...Years? The guy was a part time player all his life. Who knows what Stan & CO will do when they are in cap hell. If the Hawks sign the Slovakian guy from the KHL, STAN MIGHT PULL THE PLUG ON Seabrook ...let's face it he has lost a step and in three years he might be on the third line because Father Time has caught up to him.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

May 12 @ 10:20 AM ET
short side goal line goal by stastny and then a bomb from berglund with 3 secs left = 3-0...can't give those up;

a toe save by elliot with the whole damn net open..that would make it 3-1 maybe the stars mount a come back...or maybe it ends up 6-2...

kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

May 12 @ 10:22 AM ET
Hey, have you forgotten the 4 M dollar signing of Bickell for four F...Years? The guy was a part time player all his life. Who knows what Stan & CO will do when they are in cap hell. If the Hawks sign the Slovakian guy from the KHL, STAN MIGHT PULL THE PLUG ON Seabrook ...let's face it he has lost a step and in three years he might be on the third line because Father Time has caught up to him.
- spanky


Slovakian guy in, Seabrook out...dynasty over. Blow it up. One off year and we get this. And it wasn't like Seabrook had a chance having to baby sit kids and scrubs. Get him in the right spot, get some decent depth and he'll be fine. And he'll be MORE than fine in April and May when the games REALLY start to matter.
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

May 12 @ 10:22 AM ET
Looks like Dallas could use a guy like Crawford. That was pathetic last night.
- stan-ley-cups


Not having Seguin hurt them a LOT.

In last nights game a few of those early goals just can't happen. They caught a break on the disallowed goal, which was scored on a bad angle shot, and then proceed to give up another soft one a very short time later. The third goal just before the end of the 1st period sealed it. Stars were not coming back at that point.
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

May 12 @ 10:24 AM ET
short side goal line goal by stastny and then a bomb from berglund with 3 secs left = 3-0...can't give those up;

a toe save by elliot with the whole damn net open..that would make it 3-1 maybe the stars mount a come back...or maybe it ends up 6-2...

- bogiedoc


A Bomb? It was a fricken wrist shot from 60 feet out.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

May 12 @ 10:25 AM ET
Looks like Dallas could use a guy like Crawford. That was pathetic last night.
- stan-ley-cups


I think you guys would have to take niemi back from dallas in a crawford deal.

The prodigal son returns home?
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