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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Playoff Epics, QMJHL Finals and More
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Tomfan365
Joined: 03.11.2013

May 4 @ 4:02 PM ET
I agree and I'm torn about him. Imho, they're not ready to be able to take full advantage of having a guy like that. Even with him I don't think they'll truly be "Cup ready" for at least 3-4 years. However, it would probably be fun to watch him score like a bazillion goals, but is the cap hit worth it?

I'm torn, but if pressed I'd probably pass, thinking more could be done with the financial resources he'd require.

- Scoob


Those goals could have meant a lot this season though. Normally when people say "we could have used Hartnell's 28 goals this year" or whatever he scored and my normal response is "yeah, but how many of those goals were game winners/tying goals?" because those 28 goals in 3-1, 4-1 games don't really mean anything, however, we lost a lot of 1 goal games this year, and blew a lot of leads in the last minute to force OT, which I assume lead to most of out shootout losses. So those goals from Hartnell or Stamkos this year could have meant a lot this year in terms of playoff position or a few goals against the Caps and we're playing Pittsburgh right now.

I dunno, I'm really torn too. I really believe for the playoffs you just need to get in and anything can happen, heck if we score on the PP and win game one against the Caps, could have been a different series. I think the people who want to sign him are in the camp of "a guy like this doesn't become available every year," which I get and makes me want him as well, but I also don't want to become the Pens who couldn't get depth for so long because of all the money they had tied up in their main guys.

Bottom line, if we don't get him, fine, but if we do, as long as its not for 11-12 mil a year, I can't say I'll be upset. A lot of pros and cons and I can't hep thinking timing is going to screw this team with the right players not being ready at the right time.

Oh well, go Flyers.
sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

May 4 @ 4:03 PM ET
I think you'll see more Schenn/Lucic type guys hit the UFA market, but the top tier guys like Stamkos/Crosby/Ovechkin/etc. will be few and far between. In my opinion.
- jmatchett383


I agree too, this is a rare situation, like the Kovalchuk signing a few years ago. very rare guys of this caliber are allowed to just walk by their team. interesting situation for sure.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 4 @ 4:16 PM ET
I think you'll see more Schenn/Lucic type guys hit the UFA market, but the top tier guys like Stamkos/Crosby/Ovechkin/etc. will be few and far between. In my opinion.
- jmatchett383


I cant disagree with that, but I do think that it is a new wave of sorts...as we are finally getting to the end of those deals for younger players within the nule CBA rules. I do agree that it doesnt make this Stamkos situation any less unique, I just suspect we will encounter this situation more often
brubacca
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Brandywine, PA
Joined: 02.25.2007

May 4 @ 4:19 PM ET
I will always remember the 5OT game. I had my ACL recontructed that day. I woke up for the 3rd period and Overtimes. Celebrated with the nurses on duty and gave myself 2 shots of morphine because i had stayed off of it to watch the rest of game.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

May 4 @ 4:21 PM ET
Those goals could have meant a lot this season though. Normally when people say "we could have used Hartnell's 28 goals this year" or whatever he scored and my normal response is "yeah, but how many of those goals were game winners/tying goals?" because those 28 goals in 3-1, 4-1 games don't really mean anything, however, we lost a lot of 1 goal games this year, and blew a lot of leads in the last minute to force OT, which I assume lead to most of out shootout losses. So those goals from Hartnell or Stamkos this year could have meant a lot this year in terms of playoff position or a few goals against the Caps and we're playing Pittsburgh right now.

I dunno, I'm really torn too. I really believe for the playoffs you just need to get in and anything can happen, heck if we score on the PP and win game one against the Caps, could have been a different series. I think the people who want to sign him are in the camp of "a guy like this doesn't become available every year," which I get and makes me want him as well, but I also don't want to become the Pens who couldn't get depth for so long because of all the money they had tied up in their main guys.

Bottom line, if we don't get him, fine, but if we do, as long as its not for 11-12 mil a year, I can't say I'll be upset. A lot of pros and cons and I can't hep thinking timing is going to screw this team with the right players not being ready at the right time.

Oh well, go Flyers.

- Tomfan365


I do agree the bottom line is that the Flyers will adapt either way. Yeah it does help them become more of a contender on a yearly basis, but that doesnt mean it will be the same in 2 years. Even if the Flyers had beaten the caps they still have to win 3 more series to win a cup. It leaves a lot to chance and luck is required. Signing Stamkos doesnt help at all if hes out for months with blood clots.

I do ultimately think, and this is no secret to anyone or specific to any team, that the goal should be finding the next Stamkos (or at least acquiring goal scoring talent before their prime) is the ultimate goal for the team. I would rather let other teams focus on signing Stamkos while we do the homework on underrated players[/img]
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 4 @ 4:30 PM ET
This is why I'm not concerned about shedding salary this upcoming season. If they have enough cap space to pay their core assets, sign their RFA's and enough to add useful pieces, I'm ok with that. I don't need to see the Flyers take a Moon Shot at getting the Cup this year. Help is on the way, and fiscal sanity has already taken root and its benefits will be reaped in the coming years.
- Doc_Sarcasm


Hopefully, my view is that all avenues of players acquisition should be used. I think Free Agency should be used as a method of filling in the final pieces, and not as a main strategy in building a team. I'd remain flexible in that, as an example if a top defenseman becomes available at the right age. To me, it's all about timing.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

May 4 @ 4:31 PM ET
damn rabbit holes


- YuenglingJagr


i was at many of these. of course i was also at game 6 in 2010...which sort of kills almost all of it.

ugh.
dragonoffrost
Season Ticket Holder
Location: The East Coast Dump, NJ
Joined: 10.12.2015

May 4 @ 4:31 PM ET
My only issue with Stamkos is Injury prone. Broken leg and now blood clots. Let's hope if he becomes a Flyer there won't be a need to bubble wrap him.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

May 4 @ 4:31 PM ET


Excellent choice.




Questionable. Joe Hicketts was robbed.

- Mononoke



(frank) dave lowry. now and forever.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 4 @ 4:35 PM ET
it would however give you two centers, one who is a sniper/goal scorer/pp guy and another who does it all, scorer (albeit to a lesser extent)/playmaker/PK guy/1st unit PP guy/captain/heart and soul player. also would allow coots to slide back in 3rd center spot.

I know there a bunch of adages in hockey, build from the net out, having strong centers, etc. Having G, Stamkos, Coots down the middle of your team, already with Mason/Neuvy in your net, and Ghost/Provy/Sanheim/Morin/Hagg/Myers in the pipeline with MDZ and Gudas already up, and a Travis Konecny waiting in the wings. I think that makes us an instant contender and in a couple years, we have the veteran guys we need in their late 20's early 30's (G, Jake, Simmer, Stamkos, Raffl, Mason, MDZ), the second tier guys in their mid 20's (Coots, Schenn, Laughton, Cousins, Gudas, Ghost), and the new guys already with a season or two under their belt (Sanheim, Provy, Morin, Hagg, Konecny, Leier?, Fazleev?, Lindblom?).

seems like a perfect storm to me

- sjk540



What is it going to cost to re-sign Brayden Schenn? Somewhere in the neighborhood of 5M? How about when Gostisbehere puts up 15-20 goals, and 40 assists next season, and is one of the top offensive D men in the league, and is do for a new contract? 6M? They might need to re-sign one of the goaltenders. They're also going to have some expiring contracts, possible trades, buyouts, etc. Lots to think about in that perfect storm.
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

May 4 @ 4:36 PM ET
My only issue with Stamkos is Injury prone. Broken leg and now blood clots. Let's hope if he becomes a Flyer there won't be a need to bubble wrap him.
- dragonoffrost



I never understood statements like this.

Watch the play where he breaks his leg, its brutal but does that make him injury prone or just a human being?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X58PKB1awoY
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 4 @ 4:38 PM ET
I cant disagree with that, but I do think that it is a new wave of sorts...as we are finally getting to the end of those deals for younger players within the nule CBA rules. I do agree that it doesnt make this Stamkos situation any less unique, I just suspect we will encounter this situation more often
- YuenglingJagr


I think the trend is teams are going to extend good young players to longer term, coming out of their EL deals, rather than risk losing a very good player at 25 or 26 because he came into the league at 18 or 19.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

May 4 @ 4:47 PM ET
Stamkos breaks down for me as this: great player...not as great as the record setting contract he'd demand. This isn't 60 goal Stamkos. The fact that his points and possession stats have declined over a few seasons can't be glossed over by saying he's 26 and in his prime. Is he though? His team has been better than ever, and yet his stats have declined.

Can you honestly say he's a top 5 forward in the NHL? A top 10? 20? He's probably around that mark. Whether he used to be top 5 is irrelevant...his game has dropped off a bit now. As in now: when you're paying him the biggest contract in the NHL for the next 7 years. Is he even the best forward on the Lightning? Probably, but it's not even an unequivocal yes. A good number of the people who want to sign Stamkos probably question Jake's contract...when in the last two years they have the same number of points. Even in Jake's hellish season this year he would've finished (pro rated) with a whopping five less points than Stamkos. Now go add $3-4 million and you have Stamkos.

He has ZERO reason to come here, which is probably the funniest part. And that $11-12 million, YOLO it away if you want, but it will impede paying our current players and our prospects, who we all covet so much, down the line. It always does.
sjk540
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Joined: 01.28.2016

May 4 @ 4:50 PM ET
What is it going to cost to re-sign Brayden Schenn? Somewhere in the neighborhood of 5M? How about when Gostisbehere puts up 15-20 goals, and 40 assists next season, and is one of the top offensive D men in the league, and is do for a new contract? 6M? They might need to re-sign one of the goaltenders. Lots to think about in that perfect storm.
- MJL


very true, and we can set up an excel spreadsheet to go over it in a granular way, but ill try my best here.

In two years Streit, Schultz and all the other bad contracts are gone. AMac is one year away from then of having his contract gone. dont forget about the cap going up, even if it is a million a year. Having young players on small contracts allow us to fit in the big ones. Not sure schenn gets 5m, id say something like 4.5 like coots. Ghost i think we could give 5 million for his remaining RFA years and a few of his UFA too. Stammer gets 9? I wouldnt sign him for more than that, but i would for 9.

i assume provorov will be with the club next year, but thats it. so his ELC will be done in the summer of 2019. I think Sanheim and Konecny will be up the following year, and possibly Morin, but lets pretend Morin needs a third full year. Sanheim and Konecny would have their ELC end in 2020. Morin and Myers maybe come up the year after, so ELC's end in 2021. Now all these guys will have their RFA years coming up, and im sure they will all make a nice contract. but as this is all going on, contracts will be falling off the cap, other contracts are close to being ended, and in 2021 were already two summers from G and Jake coming off the cap. then probably another 2 years after that Stamkos comes off the books if he gets 8 years from us, hypothetically. IN the meantime Coots and Schenn and Laughton and Cousins, depending on what their UFA contracts will look like, will all be coming into new contracts. Not sure what Simmer gets at this point, but probably around the same as Schenn.

The cap i think will work itself on its own, its nice that its possible because of the great care Hexy has given it.

im not saying we should do it at all, im actually in the boat of passing and continuing down the path we are taking, its getting me very excited for the future. i just think it wouldnt be the end of the world and it would be manageable if it were to happen. at the right price of course
Marc D
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: best smile, 14 without fake tees
Joined: 03.28.2008

May 4 @ 4:50 PM ET
Stamkos breaks down for me as this: great player...not as great as the record setting contract he'd demand. This isn't 60 goal Stamkos and hasn't been for 2+ years. The fact that his points and possession stats have declined can't be glossed over by saying he's 26 and in his prime. Is he though? His team has been better than ever, and yet his stats have declined.

Can you honestly say he's a top 5 forward in the NHL? A top 10? 20? He's probably around that mark. Whether he used to be top 5 is irrelevant...his game has dropped off a bit now. As in now: when you're paying him the biggest contract in the NHL for the next 7 year. Is he even the best forward on the Lightning? Probably, but it's not even an unequivocal yes. A good number of the people who want to sign Stamkos probably question Jake's contract...when in the last two years they have the same number of points. Even in Jake's hellish season this year he would've finished (pro rated) with a whopping five less points than Stamkos. Now go add $3-4 million and you have Stamkos.

He has ZERO reason to come here, which is probably the funniest part.

- Mononoke


It just seems like the way the Flyers did business for years. Go after the top free agent available.

Doesn't work well in the cap world, and doesn't make sense for the team where they are right now.

If they do offer him a contract it would seem to be a reversal of everything Hexy has been doing up until now.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

May 4 @ 4:51 PM ET
I agree and I'm torn about him. Imho, they're not ready to be able to take full advantage of having a guy like that. Even with him I don't think they'll truly be "Cup ready" for at least 3-4 years. However, it would probably be fun to watch him score like a bazillion goals, but is the cap hit worth it?

I'm torn, but if pressed I'd probably pass, thinking more could be done with the financial resources he'd require.

- Scoob

They can't be 3-4 yrs out.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 4 @ 4:56 PM ET
very true, and we can set up an excel spreadsheet to go over it in a granular way, but ill try my best here.

In two years Streit, Schultz and all the other bad contracts are gone. AMac is one year away from then of having his contract gone. dont forget about the cap going up, even if it is a million a year. Having young players on small contracts allow us to fit in the big ones. Not sure schenn gets 5m, id say something like 4.5 like coots. Ghost i think we could give 5 million for his remaining RFA years and a few of his UFA too. Stammer gets 9? I wouldnt sign him for more than that, but i would for 9.

i assume provorov will be with the club next year, but thats it. so his ELC will be done in the summer of 2019. I think Sanheim and Konecny will be up the following year, and possibly Morin, but lets pretend Morin needs a third full year. Sanheim and Konecny would have their ELC end in 2020. Morin and Myers maybe come up the year after, so ELC's end in 2021. Now all these guys will have their RFA years coming up, and im sure they will all make a nice contract. but as this is all going on, contracts will be falling off the cap, other contracts are close to being ended, and in 2021 were already two summers from G and Jake coming off the cap. then probably another 2 years after that Stamkos comes off the books if he gets 8 years from us, hypothetically. IN the meantime Coots and Schenn and Laughton and Cousins, depending on what their UFA contracts will look like, will all be coming into new contracts. Not sure what Simmer gets at this point, but probably around the same as Schenn.

The cap i think will work itself on its own, its nice that its possible because of the great care Hexy has given it.

im not saying we should do it at all, im actually in the boat of passing and continuing down the path we are taking, its getting me very excited for the future. i just think it wouldnt be the end of the world and it would be manageable if it were to happen. at the right price of course

- sjk540


There's ways to make it work with roster turnover, trades, contracts expiring, buyouts, etc. If Schenn signs for 4.5M a year, he'd be doing the Flyers a big favor. I think Brandon Saad is a good comparable for Schenn, and he got 6M. Scorers can command more, but we'll see. 4.5M for Schenn would be a really good deal, providing of course that he continues what he did this past season. Stamkos can only get 7 years from another team. I want to keep some flexibility, and continue the cycle of drafting and developing.
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

May 4 @ 5:06 PM ET
It just seems like the way the Flyers did business for years. Go after the top free agent available.

Doesn't work well in the cap world, and doesn't make sense for the team where they are right now.

If they do offer him a contract it would seem to be a reversal of everything Hexy has been doing up until now.

- Marc D



I keep going back to his age on that last statement.

If this is a 32 year old David Backes then I am with you, signing a UFA like Backes doesnt make sense and goes against what they have been saying.

A 26 year old Stamkos is a different story though.

In the end if they dont sign him I am 100% fine with keeping things moving this way but if they do sign him I am 100% fine with that also.

ChoclitLeClair
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.30.2015

May 4 @ 5:11 PM ET
I'll never ever get tired of watching that Keith Primeau OT goal. One of the most satisfying moments in my 36 years of Flyer fandom.

Wouldn't want Louie Eriksson for more than $4.5/3 years, and he's obviously getting a much better deal than that from someone. Flyers need more size and someone who fits the timeline. When Provorov and Sanheim are in full swing, dude will be 33.

Any interest in Radulov (I know he's a RW) on a Medvedev type deal? Could be a stopgap and add 20-25 goals. On the other hand, Hakstol might kick his butt to the curb if the attitude is bad. Not advocating for it, just poking it with a stick.




MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 4 @ 5:16 PM ET
Stamkos breaks down for me as this: great player...not as great as the record setting contract he'd demand. This isn't 60 goal Stamkos. The fact that his points and possession stats have declined over a few seasons can't be glossed over by saying he's 26 and in his prime. Is he though? His team has been better than ever, and yet his stats have declined.

Can you honestly say he's a top 5 forward in the NHL? A top 10? 20? He's probably around that mark. Whether he used to be top 5 is irrelevant...his game has dropped off a bit now. As in now: when you're paying him the biggest contract in the NHL for the next 7 years. Is he even the best forward on the Lightning? Probably, but it's not even an unequivocal yes. A good number of the people who want to sign Stamkos probably question Jake's contract...when in the last two years they have the same number of points. Even in Jake's hellish season this year he would've finished (pro rated) with a whopping five less points than Stamkos. Now go add $3-4 million and you have Stamkos.

He has ZERO reason to come here, which is probably the funniest part. And that $11-12 million, YOLO it away if you want, but it will impede paying our current players and our prospects, who we all covet so much, down the line. It always does.

- Mononoke




I have to add that all this "decline" coincides with a league wide decline in scoring. That has to be taken in to account.
Pelle31Forever
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.20.2014

May 4 @ 5:16 PM ET
If Stamkos leaves Tampa Bay, he's an idiot. In the Stanley Cup last year, up 2-1 on the Isles this (albeit without him ). He can win now if he stays put.

I understand the lore of wanting to play for the team you grew up loving. Toronto does have a nice group of prospects coming up,but his best play is to stay and try getting it done in Tampa. Just my 2 cents.

Marc D
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: best smile, 14 without fake tees
Joined: 03.28.2008

May 4 @ 5:18 PM ET
If Stamkos leaves Tampa Bay, he's an idiot. In the Stanley Cup last year, up 2-1 on the Isles this (albeit without him ). He can win now if he stays put.

I understand the lore of wanting to play for the team you grew up loving. Toronto does have a nice group of prospects coming up,but his best play is to stay and try getting it done in Tampa. Just my 2 cents.

- Pelle31Forever

I think he ends up staying there too.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

May 4 @ 5:41 PM ET
I'll never ever get tired of watching that Keith Primeau OT goal. One of the most satisfying moments in my 36 years of Flyer fandom.

Wouldn't want Louie Eriksson for more than $4.5/3 years, and he's obviously getting a much better deal than that from someone. Flyers need more size and someone who fits the timeline. When Provorov and Sanheim are in full swing, dude will be 33.

Any interest in Radulov (I know he's a RW) on a Medvedev type deal? Could be a stopgap and add 20-25 goals. On the other hand, Hakstol might kick his butt to the curb if the attitude is bad. Not advocating for it, just poking it with a stick.

- ChoclitLeClair



An Erikkson signing would be all about the term. And I agree I would not want to go more than 3 years for him. I actually like the idea of it and don't mind his age as it buys time for our wing prospects. He's a versatile player and brings lots of elements we're lacking on the left side. I'm open to it but like you mentioned he had a great year leading into UFA and may possibly get 5 years from someone. No thanks
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

May 4 @ 5:50 PM ET
Hopefully there's some good news on the collegiate front this week.
- mayorofangrytown


Which player?
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

May 4 @ 5:57 PM ET
Which player?
- ob18


Not to speak for MOAT, but I'm looking forward to a decision from Drake Caggiulia.
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