They didn't "tank" in the sense that they just sucked. They tried to ice the best team they could but did so sticking to the plan of selling assets that would be with us in 3+ years and freeing up cap space.

They are tanking but that is a by-product of the full rebuild. As Tanner put it, with more luck and fewer injuries they would never have finished last.
- Steven_Dean

Well thats what the Sabres did two years ago then. They tried to ice a good team, its just the players they had were just not good enough.

When the trade deadline came along, they traded whatever asset they could for a return.........
..

Jillian

Here is the problem with "I'd rather see my team work hard and play spoiler". As a Sabre fan for years we made glorious runs to 12th place or 9th place and just miss the playoffs. Everyone said well they tried hard that's nice and then we draft lower and go another year without the playoffs or a cup. After a while the whole "they try hard" thing gets old. I don't want my team competing for a playoff spot only to get knocked out, I want them going for the cup. Do you think Calgary Flame fans who for years kept Iggy and Kipper are thrilled with finishing 8th-10th when they could've dumped both earlier and started a faster rebuild? Or Canuck fans currently are thrilled that their just wasting the Sedins twilight with zero direction by management?

As currently constructed the fastest way to rebuild your team is to tank like Buffalo and Toronto have done. Gut your system, bring in a ton of picks, draft Top 3 for 2-3 years, and then bring in some solid talent. Edmonton is a special case of really poor mgmt and player personnel decisions. Even McDavid wasn't an intentional tank, if you asked most Oiler fans to start that season they probably preferred and expected a team near the playoffs then the thought of being near dead last.

Your not wrong that the morally and for fans watching you would like to see teams like Carolina and New Jersey have a better chance for the #1 pick for not gutting their lineup. But until the league modifies the draft more or moves to a Gold plan you will see more teams gut their lineup and do a TOR/BUF. Perhaps it won't be as drastic especially compared to my Sabres but if I was a GM and I was going to rebuild I would blow the thing up the same way.

Well thats what the Sabres did two years ago then. They tried to ice a good team, its just the players they had were just not good enough.

When the trade deadline came along, they traded whatever asset they could for a return.........
..

- ImThatGuy

It's called putting lipstick on a pig

What bothers me is that for years the Leafs were the butt of jokes never doing a proper rebuild because "the fan base would not allow it". Then they finally do it....blow up the team and accumulate draft picks.....and suddenly the Leafs tanked...shame on them! What happened to all those people screaming for the culture change? For moving out players with a sense of entitlement? Leafs finally do it and not they are tanking. What?

The funny thing is, in this year when the Leafs "tanked", they actually put up more points than the previous year, and were a far more competitive team under Babcock than they have been the past few seasons. Tanked schmanked! Too many people in here starting to sound like Garth from Buffalo!
- bullethead7

Dude don't worry, I don't at all say shame on Toronto. As far as I'm concerned congrats for figuring out that the fastest and most efficent way to rebuild the whole thing is to blow it up and "tank. And yea you guys tanked but don't worry no one traded goalies the way we did in Buffalo last year!

Anyone who hates what Toronto or Buffalo did I laugh at. Both have franchise centers, a ton of cap, ton of prospects, and picks. If your franchise doesn't have a real shot to win and didn't follow suit then enjoy being an also ran for years.

The Leafs absolutely did not truly Tank the season.

1) Leafs' 69pts is the most points by a 30th place team since '07-'08.(NYI, TB 71pts). In fact, year over year, the Leafs IMPROVED by one point from their 68pts that got them 27th. 69 points is way better than last seasons 30th place BUF(54pts) and 29th place ARI(56pts) and way better than the year before's 30th place BUF(52pts). In each of the previous two seasons Toronto's 69 points puts them at 27th.

2) The Leafs did not trade away all of their best players. Kessel has talent but he doesn't contribute very much to winning - as evidenced by Toronto finishing with a better record without Kessel than they did with Kessel last season.

3) The Leafs did not bring in a bunch of rookies before they were ready at the start of the season. Instead they signed guys like Parenteau, Winnik, Hunwick, etc. to help them be competitive.

4) The Leafs were very competitive finishing 11th in Corsi. If not for Bernier's horrible start of the season the Leafs would never have finished last.(Same can be said for Talbot in EDM and 29th place).

5) Leafs had gotten their record back to .500 after an abysmal start and then JVR went out with injury. JVR happens to be the only 1st line forward the Leafs had. Losing Bozak for almost 1/2 a season was a huge loss as well.(Same can be said for EDM and their numerous injuries and 29th place.

This season - nobody tanked because this new system greatly reduces the reward for tanking. It works well and the NHL needs to give it 5 years to prove that. In that time you will see some of those 10th-14th last place teams get into the top 3. The last place team will fall out of the top three almost 50% of the time. In fact the last place team should win 1 in 5 times. In the next four years it would be very unlikely to see last place win it more than once.
- Njuice

Bud you guys tanked, BUT it was far less serious tank compared to BUF, ARZ, & EDM at the end last year. Truthfully the only reason "tanking" is a flavor now is due to McDavid. Before that it was just considered a rebuild to trade the vets, get the picks, and start fresh. Last year was the standard barer for tanking with BUF trading every goalie they had, ARZ's GM actively saying they iced a bad lineup, and well EDM is EDM their always tanking lol.

The Leafs basically did what my Sabres did in 13-14 when we got rid of Ott, Miller Pommers, Vanek etc.. same as the Leafs dumping their Vets and running with kids.. Cut the dead weight, bring up the kids, and start fresh. I have zero issue with that, its still a tank but much closer to a rebuild then the McDavid tank year.

I don't think the Leafs tanked at all.

If Jon Bernier posted a save percentage anywhere close to normal, they don't finish last.

If Nazem Kadri shot anywhere close to his normal S%, or if his linemates shot anywhere close to what should have been expected, they wouldn't have finished last.

If JVR didn't miss the second half of the season, they don't finish last.

I believe I also saw somewhere that the Leafs had the biggest differential in the NHL between expected goals and actual goals.

Lot's of evidence to show that they were in fact one of the unluckiest/luckiest (depending on how you view it) teams in the NHL this year.

I don't think it's fair to say they tanked. What Buffalo did last year was a full on tanking.

Just my thoughts. I don't even think the NHL should prevent tanking, as it comes with it's own built in risks and consequences.

Great article though.
- James_Tanner

Expected goals?

Is this an actual stat?

If so, I expect Matthews to score 146 goals next year.

LOL...sorry but lets face it there are multiple ways to tank and last year Buffalo did it and this year Toronto did it...difference is Murray wasn't trying to be coy about it. It started in 2013 when it was decided the core players had taken the Sabres nowhere and Regier and then Murray sold them off for picks...Pomimville, Vanek (Vanek was offered a contract and turned it down), Miller etc were moved and players in the last year of their contracts were also moved which makes sense Stewart, Neuvirth etc. I don't see anything wrong in what either team did. Neither team has been relevant in years so why not scrap what hasn't worked and start over.

Edm is a totally different animal because they were plainly mismanaged taking forward after forward and not addressing defense or goal tending. I think that all changes now and if they are smart they take the best D available at 4 or use that pick in a trade to bring in a top 3 dman...time will tell there. Give Chia-pet another year and I think Edm challenges for the playoffs

LOL...sorry but lets face it there are multiple ways to tank and last year Buffalo did it and this year Toronto did it...difference is Murray wasn't trying to be coy about it. It started in 2013 when it was decided the core players had taken the Sabres nowhere and Regier and then Murray sold them off for picks...Pomimville, Vanek (Vanek was offered a contract and turned it down), Miller etc were moved and players in the last year of their contracts were also moved which makes sense Stewart, Neuvirth etc. I don't see anything wrong in what either team did. Neither team has been relevant in years so why not scrap what hasn't worked and start over.

Edm is a totally different animal because they were plainly mismanaged taking forward after forward and not addressing defense or goal tending. I think that all changes now and if they are smart they take the best D available at 4 or use that pick in a trade to bring in a top 3 dman...time will tell there. Give Chia-pet another year and I think Edm challenges for the playoffs
- Leninthebuff

yeah that is the only difference.

Expected goals?

Is this an actual stat?

If so, I expect Matthews to score 146 goals next year.
- Atomic Wedgie

You need to hang out on the Habs thread.

They know all about the Expected Goals stat... AND the Luck %

You need to hang out on the Habs thread.

They know all about the Expected Goals stat... AND the Luck %
- Aetherial

Kadri is expected goal king!!!!

Anyhow, I am actually happy to see TOR get a break, will make games in the future more enjoyable... when the Habs win of course.

That all said, as it pertains to those videos in the blog: Streamers? Seriously? Was there a parade after? God I hope there is a baby-boom in 39 weeks that we can all dub "draft-babies".

What is this draft lottery you speak of?? Not sure I'm familiar with it.

Bud you guys tanked, BUT it was far less serious tank compared to BUF, ARZ, & EDM at the end last year. Truthfully the only reason "tanking" is a flavor now is due to McDavid. Before that it was just considered a rebuild to trade the vets, get the picks, and start fresh. Last year was the standard barer for tanking with BUF trading every goalie they had, ARZ's GM actively saying they iced a bad lineup, and well EDM is EDM their always tanking lol.

The Leafs basically did what my Sabres did in 13-14 when we got rid of Ott, Miller Pommers, Vanek etc.. same as the Leafs dumping their Vets and running with kids.. Cut the dead weight, bring up the kids, and start fresh. I have zero issue with that, its still a tank but much closer to a rebuild then the McDavid tank year.
- cmsabres48

I'm not bashing the Sabres here and I don't know enough about their role players or lesser known prospects. It looked bad trading every goalie - but those are UFAs and not exactly elite goalies. Nothing wrong with that at all.

I'm just pointing out that the Leafs did not tank. They didn't go young to start the season and even after the deadline most of our rookies besides Froese(4th line center and only rookies to start the season) and Nylander - the rest of them got games because we had a comical number of injuries down the stretch. Even the AHL replacements were getting injured. It was kind of lucky for Leafs we had all those injuries. It allowed us to finish 30th and test out a bunch of random kids. Only 170 rookie games played on the entire season.

I don't recall 'tanking' being an issue when the Islanders, Lightning, Blackhawks, Blues, Capitals, Blue Jackets, Thrashers, Senators, Avalanche or Panthers picked 1st
- walshyleafsfan

Sabres were one of the worst at trying to hide the tank last year and still didnt end up with the 1st. Instead that pathetic team called the Oilers got it instead (They dont even need to try and tank they are so (frank)ing bad)

There's a big difference between the organization tanking and the players tanking. I don't think anyone could accuse the Leafs players of tanking- the youngsters almost cost them that coveted last place position this year.

But the organization traded away every asset they possibly could, and there was never any hope of playoff contention. So in that manner, they did the same thing as many teams before them did.

And that's great- the Leafs have the established fan base that they can do that. If the Devils ever came closer to doing that than we did when we won the lottery, we'd probably lose about half of our fans to the Rangers and Isles. We just don't have the luxury to put out miserable teams and expect to be financially solvent (In the long term). It's bad enough that we put out a bad team.

The thing that really irks me is that somehow Edmonton has had 8 high picks and still hasn't done anything. At some point, we have to start saying that a team is too bad and doesn't deserve to ruin another prospect's career. I think a modified version of Burke's rule would be a welcome sigh of relief so that perennial bottom dwellers aren't incentivized to remain awful. It shouldn't take 8 years to put together a competitive hockey team.

There aren't any flaws in saying the first overall pick will speed up a rebuild. In the Oilers case their entire rebuild was just getting the first overall pick and doing nothing else of value. Their other drafting, development and trades were all terrible. Getting first overall can't be the only thing you do in a rebuild but it can definitely speed it up if you're doing an actual rebuild and not just being generally terrible at managing a team like the Oilers were. It isn't #1 overall but keep an eye on what the second overall pick does to accelerate the Jets. It's an immediate player in their top 6 rather than needing to wait a few years for them to be ready for that.

In a salary cap world teams will always need to "tank", "rebuild", etc.

It doesn't matter how they adjust the lottery, if you don't have a team that is good enough to compete for the cup, the best way to rebuild is to sell off roster players that are assets now for future considerations. Acquire a bunch of picks and invest in good scouting so you can hopefully gain a bunch of promising young players.

The simple fact is that most cup winning teams in the last decade had at least a couple players that were picked in the top 5. You need to do your best to draft good players in the other rounds and in the late first round too, but in almost every draft there are a few can't miss picks at the top it helps to be able to grab.

I think the new rules they are enacting may actually cause some teams to be lousy for even longer because they won't necessarily get the high end talent they need (not to mention we will eventually see a team that just misses the playoffs win the lottery, taking a franchise player from a team that really needs it). For every Oilers there is a Chicago. And even the Oilers may eventually be a good team if their management gets its act together and makes the necessary moves.

P.S. Burke talks a lot, but that's about all he's good for. His masterpiece move was drafting 2nd and 3rd overall, but he hates tanking... And now Vancouver is in the very purgatory you spoke of in this blog, not quite good enough, but too good to draft high.

The final week of the season when Bernier got hot they played Sparks a lot. That's the only way they could have finished lower than the Oilers. Thank god they had the good sense to do it. They tanked and I'm thrilled about it.

I've posted this before and will post it again.

Name the last team to win the Cup without a top 2 overall pick on the roster?

Detroit............(with a team built before the hard cap and before international scouts knew that players like Zetts and Datz played in other leagues besides the Canadian Jrs.)

Look at all the teams that make the Cup finals. Everyone of them has at least one top 3-6 overall pick since Detroit.

These are facts. And if I was a betting man I'd look to the team's with top 5 overall picks on ther roster and would be guessing they are the ones to make the Finals and to win the Cup.

If you want to argue how teams acquire top 2 overall talent, then that's a different discussion. But winning the Cup requires elite skill, most teams are not dumb enough to to trade it away or let it walk..........unless you are the Bruins of course.

Expected goals?

Is this an actual stat?

If so, I expect Matthews to score 146 goals next year.
- Atomic Wedgie

this must be one of those advance stats that no one can yet explain.

and it should be called "expected goals"... it should be labeled "imaginary goals"...

with fairy dust

The final week of the season when Bernier got hot they played Sparks a lot. That's the only way they could have finished lower than the Oilers. Thank god they had the good sense to do it. They tanked and I'm thrilled about it.
- shack67

really find this whole "debate/commentary" regarding tanking ridiculous - just like the crazy lengths that the NHL will NOW go to to illustrate the draft is not fixed.

i) half hour program of Gary whining on about ping pong balls and how an independent consultant will be used to manage the balls
ii) dare I ask for a replay of the video of the Crosby "lottery" (sorry Burkie)
iii) "what the Leafs did this past season shouldn't be allowed" - why exactly... you been allowing every other franchise to do it for years


and how's about a CAP system that takes into account how much teams contribute on the positive and negative side of the league ledger? weak financial club.. you cannot spend over the CAP, if you contribute positively you can spend over the CAP.

I don't recall 'tanking' being an issue when the Islanders, Lightning, Blackhawks, Blues, Capitals, Blue Jackets, Thrashers, Senators, Avalanche or Panthers picked 1st
- walshyleafsfan

I would agree that the media attention around it wasn't the same, and I don't remember people talking about tanking around those teams. However, it didn't go unnoticed (for most of those teams). Brian Burke did recently bring up Chicago, Florida, and Buffalo when he was talking about his frustrations with the NHL Draft Lottery. I think one main difference is anything that is done is covered in the media (mostly social media) much more than it was before. But, you bring up a valid point.

I say this all the time, but the fact is that "tanking" makes the most sense, regardless of the first overall pick. If draft picks were completely random, teams would still "tank." When a team knows they won't be competitive for a few years, it makes too much sense to trade the players who will be too old to help when they are competitive again for younger talent (draft picks or prospects). It just makes sense! If you are going to finish near the bottom, it makes sense to lean into it -- again, regardless of the draft picks -- because you're going to have pieces that won't be helpful in the future.
- SolidGoldBricks

I would agree to this in the sense that getting the best picks or prospects is very important. I also don't think that the players are actively out there trying to lose games. Would you say it is impossible for a team to finish in the middle of the pack and still rebuild though? Or, does finishing in the lower seeds speed up the process?

Jillian, the problem is inherently linked to the Hard Cap the NHL & Owners have embraced. It creates parity. Parity is starting to get boring. Pertaining to tanking, it also enhances the requirement of young, cost controlled players who make an impact at 19, 20 & 21 years of age. Problem is, these type of players are only found in the top 3 of most drafts, after that & you got very lucky. & that is why teams "must" tank if they fall a little behind the parity curve. The best way to address this is to implement a softer hard cap allowing teams to exceed the Cap set each year. But at a cost(penalty).
- Kevin R

Yes, this is very true. We are stuck with the hard cap for now in the NHL - do you think that a team could fall in the middle of the pack and catch back up at a slower rate than those who were able to get one of those top 3 pick? Also, a big concern I have is there are teams that seemed to be behind the curve even after years of finishing in the bottom. Not only is this a problem for the balance, but to me, it shows that "tanking" isn't the only piece to rebuilding.

I would agree to this in the sense that getting the best picks or prospects is very important. I also don't think that the players are actively out there trying to lose games. Would you say it is impossible for a team to finish in the middle of the pack and still rebuild though? Or, does finishing in the lower seeds speed up the process?
- Jillian Fisher

Buffalo finished between 7-9 in the standings for several years. Always picking in the middle of the draft. They were playoff contenders but never cup contenders. They had to use July 1 as their "Draft" and overpay middle of the road players.

It wasn't until after several years of this buffalo started to tear down and actually get top end talent in the system.

It takes 4-5 years of drafting High to start to turn your franchise around, IMO. Look at teams who have won the cup and where there key players were drafted. The middle of the road does not work if you want to be a cup contender, and not just a playoff contender.

In a salary cap world teams will always need to "tank", "rebuild", etc.

It doesn't matter how they adjust the lottery, if you don't have a team that is good enough to compete for the cup, the best way to rebuild is to sell off roster players that are assets now for future considerations. Acquire a bunch of picks and invest in good scouting so you can hopefully gain a bunch of promising young players.

The simple fact is that most cup winning teams in the last decade had at least a couple players that were picked in the top 5. You need to do your best to draft good players in the other rounds and in the late first round too, but in almost every draft there are a few can't miss picks at the top it helps to be able to grab.

I think the new rules they are enacting may actually cause some teams to be lousy for even longer because they won't necessarily get the high end talent they need (not to mention we will eventually see a team that just misses the playoffs win the lottery, taking a franchise player from a team that really needs it). For every Oilers there is a Chicago. And even the Oilers may eventually be a good team if their management gets its act together and makes the necessary moves.

P.S. Burke talks a lot, but that's about all he's good for. His masterpiece move was drafting 2nd and 3rd overall, but he hates tanking... And now Vancouver is in the very purgatory you spoke of in this blog, not quite good enough, but too good to draft high.
- Thecakeisalie

At a certain point, it gets very unfair to the top talent if Edmonton doesn't get their act together. Those players could be missing out on millions over their next few contracts because of it. Also, where would you rather play... Toronto or Edmonton? At a certain point, it almost pays to not be the best player some years.

While tanking and trading away veteran players is something that we're going to live with, I think that after a certain point you really shouldn't be able to keep winning the draft lottery. The devils weren't allowed to keep the #1 pick when we won it, so why can't we add a two year max or something?