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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: So 'It' Ends
Author Message
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Apr 28 @ 10:01 AM ET
Instead of acting like a fantasy league owner, we all need to analyze this like actual REAL hockey GMs, players and agents.

Think about the scenario where Seabrook's agent and Seabs are negotiating with the Hawks and during the season sign a forward 8 year, $50+m contract.

Forget about that silly little speed bump called a full No Movement Clause that was negotiated into his contract from now through 2022.

Thinking about this from the perspective of a real player, agent and GM, is there any chance that Seabrook is traded before this new contract even kicks in?

Can someone cite an example in any sport (other than an NBA sign-and-trade where the trade was actually PART OF the signing) where a player signed a big money, long term contract and was traded within 12 months of signing? Within 24 months? (note, the NBA system is weird in this regard, so careful in citing examples there. significant contracts are thrown into a trade because the money needs to be evened up. If you cite an NBA example, make sure the player you're citing wasnt just a lesser player thrown in to even up money. Only cite NBA deals if the player you're citing was the main player in the trade).

Seabrook is not getting traded. Kruger is not getting traded. AA is not getting traded.

- Cmonalready


Seabrook, only has a NTC till july 1st and Kruger is still restricted so he can get traded. If you are not open to making tough decesions on what is best for the team and put individual players in front of what is best for the Organization then you should not be a GM. Is Seabs going to be upset? sure but when you try and get every penny out of a cap strapped org then you are 1/2 to blame for getting traded. Kruger assuming he has trade value now (he bickell'ed us) by saying his wrist may never be 100%. We made good on his deal. His contract is 10.5 Mil over 4 years, no one would say we did not do him right on his 2nd deal, factoring in how his 2015 season went. he helped us and we did him a solid back. hawks are even.
howiehandles
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.18.2010

Apr 28 @ 10:06 AM ET
I heard from two sources putting TT in the deal would have landed Drouin. FWIW.

We can all second guess it now, instead Dano went for Ladd. The rest is history.

But the Hawks would have Drouin going forward at least. And while we're accurately pointing out that Drouin gives marginal/occasional effort on the back check, same was true of Patrick Kane his first 3-4 seasons. Basically spotty until 2013 IMO.

- John Jaeckel



Damn, that makes me sad. That's something I liked about the deal too, is you're getting a player with a higher ceiling, who could give you a start in the next wave of younger core players. Kane's big defensive move used to be 2 minutes for hooking. I'm glad he's pretty much grown out of it.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Apr 28 @ 10:07 AM ET
Enough already about CC or Seabrook being traded.....

Any club out there who may have interest in either would have to have assets coming the other way the Hawks want, need, and would be a fit.

Even more, if not most importantly, those clubs are likely in markets neither CC or Seabrook would EVER waive their NMCs to go to. Edmonton, Calgary??!! Say what you want about NMC/NTC not being an issue, but they are.

They gave Seabrook the A on the jersey as well.

Darling at league minimum lasts only through next year, which means dealing CC still ultimately leads the team back to $6-7MM invested in goalies after a raise to Darling and acquisition of a competent backup. Hard to argue the immense value the Hawks are getting for their money to guard the net today. A net short term savings for one year does not buy them an upgrade on D better than TVR, and sets them up to lose the quality they have in the net which has a better chance of reducing GA than rolling the dice on a guy like Hamonic or Hainsey.

The team as constructed is at most going to shed Bickell via buyout, Ladd to UFA, Mash, maybe TT for whatever they can get on D, and hopefully be able to work deals to keep Panik (who I am confident will do a cheap deal to stay), Flash and Weise.
howiehandles
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.18.2010

Apr 28 @ 10:07 AM ET
No question JD is built for the NHL game where TT is built for Europe and that helps a bunch with being a potential difference maker. The Andrew Shaws of this world are few and far between.
- 6628



I'm gonna be disappointed if Shaw goes, but if I was advising him, I'd tell him this is your opportunity to cash in. The way that you play, your body is gonna quit on you at some point.
Sundevil
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 04.24.2012

Apr 28 @ 10:11 AM ET
Seabrook, only has a NTC till july 1st and Kruger is still restricted so he can get traded. If you are not open to making tough decesions on what is best for the team and put individual players in front of what is best for the Organization then you should not be a GM. Is Seabs going to be upset? sure but when you try and get every penny out of a cap strapped org then you are 1/2 to blame for getting traded. Kruger assuming he has trade value now (he bickell'ed us) by saying his wrist may never be 100%. We made good on his deal. His contract is 10.5 Mil over 4 years, no one would say we did not do him right on his 2nd deal, factoring in how his 2015 season went. he helped us and we did him a solid back. hawks are even.
- kmw4631

Re: Kruger, what was the rush to sign him before his rehab was even done and before he hit the ice again to see what he would be able to contribute moving forward. Stanbo has a penchant for rewarding players with contracts for past performance, and that is a dangerous mentality. The Seabs and Kruger deals are regrettable before they even start...
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Apr 28 @ 10:13 AM ET
Enough already about CC or Seabrook being traded.....

Any club out there who may have interest in either would have to have assets coming the other way the Hawks want, need, and would be a fit.

Even more, if not most importantly, those clubs are likely in markets neither CC or Seabrook would EVER waive their NMCs to go to. Edmonton, Calgary??!! Say what you want about NMC/NTC not being an issue, but they are.

They gave Seabrook the A on the jersey as well.

Darling at league minimum lasts only through next year, which means dealing CC still ultimately leads the team back to $6-7MM invested in goalies after a raise to Darling and acquisition of a competent backup. Hard to argue the immense value the Hawks are getting for their money to guard the net today. A net short term savings for one year does not buy them an upgrade on D better than TVR, and sets them up to lose the quality they have in the net which has a better chance of reducing GA than rolling the dice on a guy like Hamonic or Hainsey.

The team as constructed is at most going to shed Bickell via buyout, Ladd to UFA, Mash, maybe TT for whatever they can get on D, and hopefully be able to work deals to keep Panik (who I am confident will do a cheap deal to stay), Flash and Weise.

- Return of the Roar


Math is your friend. Someone else is going.
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Apr 28 @ 10:13 AM ET
I would have gladly made the deal last time, even just based on Drouin's small sample size, you could see he can take and give the body, and he has fantastic vision and puck skills. Might not be a sniper, but he'd make his teammates look great with those assists.
- howiehandles

Watching him play last year and this year one thing that sticks out to me is his nose for the puck. He has high-end skill in the making. Another thing that sticks out to me is he isn't afraid to go down low, cycle, take a hit, or hit. Maybe defense is a bit suspect, but he can play. I was on the fence when this was going on with Drouin for Teravainen or Gustafsson, and I thought keeping one of those two was a better option. Looking back, I think Teravainen can be replaced. I would move him this summer along with someone else for a bit of cap room and maybe a steady #5 defender.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Apr 28 @ 10:14 AM ET
Math is your friend. Someone else is going.
- kwolf68


Depends first on cap number. If someone goes it will be Shaw.
Bjm84
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.29.2013

Apr 28 @ 10:17 AM ET
I'm gonna be disappointed if Shaw goes, but if I was advising him, I'd tell him this is your opportunity to cash in. The way that you play, your body is gonna quit on you at some point.
- howiehandles


This. Shaw deserves to cash in and I personally hope that he does. I'll miss him like crazy but I love him too much to see him get the shaft.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Apr 28 @ 10:22 AM ET
I'm gonna be disappointed if Shaw goes, but if I was advising him, I'd tell him this is your opportunity to cash in. The way that you play, your body is gonna quit on you at some point.
- howiehandles


I agree with you and I'd guess his agent does too. But Shaw does things nobody expects. Who would have thought Shaw would be you're toughest player? Be the most effective in front of the net? Be able to play on any line? Be one of if not your best fighter? You never know with Shaw.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Apr 28 @ 10:26 AM ET
I agree with you and I'd guess his agent does too. But Shaw does things nobody expects. Who would have thought Shaw would be you're toughest player? Be the most effective in front of the net? Be able to play on any line? Be one of if not your best fighter? You never know with Shaw.
- 6628


When faced with Shaw, Crawford or Seabrook as the odd man out.....it is Shaw. Weise fully utilized is an equivalent replacement at lower cost. There is no deal the Hawks can make involving the other two that does not materially weaken the team far worse than losing Shaw.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 28 @ 10:29 AM ET
When faced with Shaw, Crawford or Seabrook as the odd man out.....it is Shaw. Weise fully utilized is an equivalent replacement at lower cost. There is no deal the Hawks can make involving the other two that does not materially weaken the team far worse than losing Shaw.
- Return of the Roar


Why would Weise ever willingly sign a contract to play for Q? He franked with him for 2 months....don't hold your breath on Weise. Fleishmann is much more likely to resign for 1mil 1 yr
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Apr 28 @ 10:29 AM ET
Some FA defensemen RFA and UFAs: Polak, JML, Schlemko (all UFAs) Michael Stone (RFA), Trobua (RFA - might as well ask for the moon), McCabe (RFA), Petrovic (RFA), Colin Miller (RFA), Nesterov (RFA). Didn't put all of them, just maybe some that may interest. Almost all the RFAs are aged 22-25ish.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Apr 28 @ 10:37 AM ET
Why would Weise ever willingly sign a contract to play for Q? He franked with him for 2 months....don't hold your breath on Weise. Fleishmann is much more likely to resign for 1mil 1 yr
- EnzoD


Weise was behind Shaw on the depth chart. That is why he might stick if Shaw cant be kept.

Don't forget Flash has a blood clotting disorder.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Apr 28 @ 10:42 AM ET
When faced with Shaw, Crawford or Seabrook as the odd man out.....it is Shaw. Weise fully utilized is an equivalent replacement at lower cost. There is no deal the Hawks can make involving the other two that does not materially weaken the team far worse than losing Shaw.
- Return of the Roar


Weiss is going to get paid more then shaw. roughly same player and Weiss is UFA.

The questions is would you rather have Shaw on a $3 mil 5 year deal or Seabs on a 7 mil 8 year deal and use use the extra money on keeping panarin long term and acquiring a young D man. We have 3 core guys that are getting worse. Keith, Hossa, Seabs making 18 ml per year. We have 5 guys in there prime AA, Teows, Hammer, Kane, Craw, making 35 mil per year. that is 53 mil for 8 players that means the other 14 need to AVG about 1.2 How in the world did stan or anyone think we could construct a good roster that way when we are also trading away all our good young talent. So of the 8 players mentioned 1 has to go if we want to stay a team that contends.
Jason Millen
St Louis Blues
Location: Saint Louis, MO
Joined: 01.28.2016

Apr 28 @ 10:46 AM ET
Toews is lopsided bowlegged. one side more than the other I think.

I wonder what the % is of NHL players that are bowlegged to some degree?

- Al


Parayko sure seems to be. You can even see it in his skating sometimes.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 28 @ 10:46 AM ET
Weise was behind Shaw on the depth chart. That is why he might stick if Shaw cant be kept.

Don't forget Flash has a blood clotting disorder.

- Return of the Roar


I agree that Weise COULD be the Hawks next Shaw type, but he will get $4mil-$5mil from some desperate team that is "close". I could see any team that missed the playoffs giving Weise $4milx4 without a second thought....that's outside StanBo's price range.
Jason Millen
St Louis Blues
Location: Saint Louis, MO
Joined: 01.28.2016

Apr 28 @ 10:48 AM ET
Does anyone know how the term black aces came about? I heard it had something to do with eddie shore but the person didn't know any more than that.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Apr 28 @ 10:49 AM ET
I agree that Weise COULD be the Hawks next Shaw type, but he will get $4mil-$5mil from some desperate team that is "close". I could see any team that missed the playoffs giving Weise $4milx4 without a second thought....that's outside StanBo's price range.
- EnzoD


If that is the scenario, Shaw either takes what cap is left for him like Kruger, or he is gone.

CC and Seabrook far more valuable than Shaw.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Apr 28 @ 10:49 AM ET
[Most disturbing take away:

Center Marcus Kruger on his injured left wrist: "It might never be as good as it was."
#Blackhawks
- walleyeb1quote=Al] [Honest and not a shock to me...Not good for a center especially.

Raised this earlier, before he returned, most thought I was crazy.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 28 @ 10:51 AM ET
Weiss is going to get paid more then shaw. roughly same player and Weiss is UFA.

The questions is would you rather have Shaw on a $3 mil 5 year deal or Seabs on a 7 mil 8 year deal and use use the extra money on keeping panarin long term and acquiring a young D man. We have 3 core guys that are getting worse. Keith, Hossa, Seabs making 18 ml per year. We have 5 guys in there prime AA, Teows, Hammer, Kane, Craw, making 35 mil per year. that is 53 mil for 8 players that means the other 14 need to AVG about 1.2 How in the world did stan or anyone think we could construct a good roster that way when we are also trading away all our good young talent. So of the 8 players mentioned 1 has to go if we want to stay a team that contends.

- kmw4631


Keith+Hammer have 3 years of Elite Level hockey in them. Seabrook is a real question mark with his foot speed. Almost EVERY time a GM (in any sport) pays a player for past performance, the contract looks bad very shortly after. Seabrook+Toews and Kane got paid for past performance. Kane looks like a steal, Toews-meh-, and Seabs... He needs to shed about 10 lbs and train with Letang. Ive watched Letang's offseason program and its ALL about foot speed+first step explosion over 360degrees. I'm a big fan of Letang's game and his work ethic off the ice.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Apr 28 @ 10:55 AM ET
It helps. Look how Leddy skates.
- 6628


I know...
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Apr 28 @ 10:57 AM ET
You're rolling
- 6628


That choice had to be influenced a great deal by the cap space Druin would need to take up vs Ladd, which is none.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 28 @ 10:58 AM ET
Raised this earlier, before he returned, most thought I was crazy.
- walleyeb1


Wrist injury that doesn't allow your 3C to take faceoffs on his weak side. A wrist that will never be 100%...I know! 3 year extension for 2x what you made last year!!
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Apr 28 @ 11:02 AM ET
Does anyone know how the term black aces came about? I heard it had something to do with eddie shore but the person didn't know any more than that.
- Jason Millen


Not sure but I think it has something to do with the bad luck element involved in one of the Aces ever getting to play...Mostly because someone was injured.
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