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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: So 'It' Ends
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EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 27 @ 11:17 AM ET
Stephen Johns is Seabrook 2.0? Man, that is an insult to Seabrook. The guy might stick in the NHL but he isn't anywhere close to Seabrook or where Seabrook was at his age.

Seabrook - 114 Pts +35 - playing top pair minutes against opponents top units. Playing in all situations.
Johns 3 Pts -6 - playing 4-5D minutes, but not trusted to play PP or PK.

Johns has a long long way to go to be in a conversation with Seabrook.

- breadbag


Johns has played in a total of 15 NHL games and Ruff plays his top 2 pairings pretty equally. Johns is a 2nd round pick that can rush the puck, make an accurate stretch pass, clear the crease, and separate his man from the puck. Oduya-Johns was deployed as their top 5v5 dpair. In the very small sample size, the stats and eye test tell any objective observer that he is going to be a PLAYER. And I love how the rhetoric of all these players like Leddy, Saad, Sharp, Oduya, Johns is that "they're nothing special"...only after they are traded away. Watch Johns this series, it will be a much bigger test against STL. We will see how he plays. Regardless, this is a ROOKIE playing effective top 4 minutes in the Central Division playoffs. Shrug off the loss if it helps you sleep better at night. Trading Johns was a huge mistake, and the Hawks on the front nine this morning just proves it to be so.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Apr 27 @ 11:18 AM ET
If it came down to Seabrook or Crawford who would you rather trade and why?
- MjulQvist[

NOT SURE WHY THE COLOR CHANGED?

I would say both. We need to retool these team around Teows and Kane and there age window. Having guys 3-4 years older then them on the decline with high salaries means we will be good but without another panarin miracle we are a middle of the road team. Also if you are willing to take back some salary they will be allot easier to move. IE ship off 12.875 Mil and take back 7 brings you back better players then trying to ship off 6 mil and take back 1 mil.

Craw coming of a career year his value will need to be higher. our goalie coach's and or system seem to be goalie friendly. nemi, Craw, Darling, Ranta, Heck Craws backup in 2013 but up career numbers. If he can bring back a pick and a NHL ready D player prospect making 1/2 him.

Seabs because his value will also never be higher. He is not getting any younger and once teams decide he is no longe a # 1 no one will ever touch him. Leadership is great but not at the price or Term. you will get much better value if you are willing to take back some salary.


Keith and Hossa are the only older the Teows players with high salaries I'm sure we keep. AA, Shaw, Kruger, Panarin, hammer all should be kept so we can compete for the next 5-6 years. they are all going to in there prime and with teows, kane, hammer, keith, Panarin we will be able to add UFA a year or 2 after there prime as fill ins as long as we have space. players would take less to come here.

If you bow out in the 1st round and have traded away 2 1sts, 2 2nds and 3rd and give away dalback, norrdy, Johns, Danult, Dano, palliota in year time and have yourself at the cap with to many declining players. Keith, Seabs, Hossa, more then likely Craw soon.

let me give you an example would you trade

Seabs for Klefbom
Craw for JVR and a good D prospect?

Saves you almost 5 mil per year. both TOR and ED are loaded with Prospect and young players they could really use Craw and Seabs. would we be worse next year with that trade? how about in 2 or 3 years?
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Apr 27 @ 11:18 AM ET
Keith signed for 13 years and $72 million in 2009. More than Hossa!

It was also front loaded with a signing bonus, so he received $8m per year the first 4 years, and $7.5m these last two.

His contract kicked in not far of the stock market bottom, and I can assure you he has a financial advisor. Given the timing of his $8m a year and the multi year stock market rally, I'd say he is considerably better off than Toews or Kane right now, all things considered.

More fun facts: Toews and Kane made $13.8m this year. Each. But I wager Keith could care less.

- ItHossaGood



Divorce has a funny way of throwing a monkey wrench right in the middle of all that.
spudrock512
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IA
Joined: 08.20.2014

Apr 27 @ 11:21 AM ET
I would do TT for John Moore/Damon Severson without a second thought.
- EnzoD



Severson is very interesting. Young (21) big, and two years left on his ELC. That would be a great prospect for prospect hockey trade. Possibly a win for both teams. Hawks get a young defenseman, Devils get a young forward that in the least is a quality responsible 3C with the upside of a goal scoring first liner.

Any Devil fans out there? Would you do this?
MjulQvist
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.22.2012

Apr 27 @ 11:27 AM ET
Ya he wont win board battles like Toews or Hossa, but he cant go 0/10 in board battles. Hawks need guys who can win a puck battle along the boards every once in a while. I hope Tuevo adds 10lbs of muscle and steps up his game next year, but I'm not holding my breath.
- EnzoD


Muscle is another thing and hockey strength another. I hope he can produce from the beginning and build some confidence that way going forward. I know he wants to be a better hockey player.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 27 @ 11:28 AM ET
Johns has played in a total of 15 NHL games and Ruff plays his top 2 pairings pretty equally. Johns is a 2nd round pick that can rush the puck, make an accurate stretch pass, clear the crease, and separate his man from the puck. Oduya-Johns was deployed as their top 5v5 dpair. In the very small sample size, the stats and eye test tell any objective observer that he is going to be a PLAYER. And I love how the rhetoric of all these players like Leddy, Saad, Sharp, Oduya, Johns is that "they're nothing special"...only after they are traded away. Watch Johns this series, it will be a much bigger test against STL. We will see how he plays. Regardless, this is a ROOKIE playing effective top 4 minutes in the Central Division playoffs. Shrug off the loss if it helps you sleep better at night. Trading Johns was a huge mistake, and the Hawks on the front nine this morning just proves it to be so.
- EnzoD


I'm not talking Leddy, Saad or Sharp here. We are talking about Stephan Johns, who so far isn't anything special. You can like a few things in his game but he hasn't proven anything yet or had actual results from his play that have accomplished anything. If he was so great, he would be having an impact. He may turn into a useful player, but Seabrook he is not. Not even close. He is 6th in Dallas D for average icetime in the playoffs so far, at under 17 minutes per game. I'm not saying he isn't maybe a nice guy to add depth on the blueline, but you can save putting him on a pedestal until after he actually earns it.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 27 @ 11:32 AM ET
I'm not talking Leddy, Saad or Sharp here. We are talking about Stephan Johns, who so far isn't anything special. You can like a few things in his game but he hasn't proven anything yet or had actual results from his play that have accomplished anything. If he was so great, he would be having an impact. He may turn into a useful player, but Seabrook he is not. Not even close. He is 6th in Dallas D for average icetime in the playoffs so far, at under 17 minutes per game. I'm not saying he isn't maybe a nice guy to add depth on the blueline, but you can save putting him on a pedestal until after he actually earns it.
- breadbag


He has all the physical tools to be a solid 4D for many years to come. Given the current state of the Hawks defense (the #1 reason they are out of the playoffs in Round 1), I'd say it's very fair to lament the loss of Stephen Johns. He would have been the clear cut #4 D on the Hawks this spring. So it goes. Move on, and identify a 4D to acquire via trade or UFA signing...
jb3333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.27.2013

Apr 27 @ 11:38 AM ET
We shall see. With Teuvo shouldn't this have happened 2 years ago yet every training camp we see very little physical size enhancement. I've lifted weights for years and you can add muscle and mass quickly and cleanly if diet and dedication are there. That's the difference between Kane and Teuvo. Mentally Kane wants to be the best and will do whatever it takes to achieve it. Teuvo is yhe guy who was told how good he was all his life and has done zero work to adjust physically.

If you watch clips vs Stl he looks tiny and he won't go to hard areas to score. He doesn't have the skill set to be a perimeter player and be effective. At what point do you just move on and admit the mistake? To me that's the most intriguing debate that has to happen in the fo prior to the draft.

I do agree on refreshing the roster. Seems the core thrives when younger guys are injected and prove their worth and provide a spark. With the cap the role players will cycle in and out and this may be time for the 3rd wave. See what bowman can do with limited realistic trade chips and not much cap room. He's got a helluva up hill battle.

- SteveRain


I'm not a scout or player rep--- but have been following and playing hockey nearly 50 years-- The bolded statement above is key-- the success of the Hawks has been the correct blend of players with the elite core---- and then the time to allow that chemistry to develop-- My criticism of Q is directly to this point-- It did not appear to me that he cultivated the environment for some of the new players to blend into the team-- Weise is probably the biggest example-- and there are others who had a very short leash-- Garbutt, Sekac, etc-- Daley asked to be traded so thats the deal there--

As far as evaluating players to trade or resign -- I'd be curious what the recent injuries to Shaw and Crawford are and how they might affect them long term-- If Crow was experiencing vertigo symptoms-- or was concussed-- and if Shaw has a chronic back issue-- that must play into the decision-- Have we seen the best of those 2 players-- Can the Hawks replace Shaw-- Can the Hawks win with Darling or another vet?

It is critically important for the Hawks to NOT fall in love (too long) with players - I would think they have learned that from Bickell--

Teuvo is a very young and talented 2 way player-- sees the game as an elite player-- BUT he will never be the banger or board player-- and I would ask what does this team need -- I think the Hawks already have what Teuvo brings-- so to me he could be expendable at the RIGHT price-- hopefully a 4D if possible-- BUT his contract is favorable-- and if they indeed decide to trade Crawford-- maybe keep Teuvo stays--

Seabrook is going nowhere-- that long term deal ensured this-- and he is an important leader on this team

Should be a very interesting off season-- to me Hawks still have a wide open window-- how the FO responds is the key--


RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Apr 27 @ 11:41 AM ET
He has all the physical tools to be a solid 4D for many years to come. Given the current state of the Hawks defense (the #1 reason they are out of the playoffs in Round 1), I'd say it's very fair to lament the loss of Stephen Johns. He would have been the clear cut #4 D on the Hawks this spring. So it goes. Move on, and identify a 4D to acquire via trade or UFA signing...
- EnzoD


It will be very interesting to watch Johns in action this series because he and Oduya are going to be on the receiving end of some very physical play from the Blues' forwards.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Apr 27 @ 11:50 AM ET
It will be very interesting to watch Johns in action this series because he and Oduya are going to be on the receiving end of some very physical play from the Blues' forwards.
- RickJ


Should be a very exciting series. I watched most of the Dallas-Minny series and I think without Seguin its the Blues in 6. Johns and Oduya are deployed as Ruff's shut-down pair with Goligoski+Klingberg as the offensive pairing. Will be a big test for Johns and Johnny O, and I think the Blues will get the best of them. Doesn't mean Johns wouldn't of helped the Hawks this spring. No offense to Oduya, but you put Johns next to Keith and that's a damn good d-pairing already, IMO.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 27 @ 11:58 AM ET
I'm hoping a 3 year deal at $950 or $975. If the hawks ever have concerns about a player and if they are NHL quality offer at or Just over what you can bury in the AHL. It would be nice to get 1 extra year. He will be UFA after a 2 year deal that is why I would like a 3 year deal.

I'm fine moving Shaw. His value will probably never be higher. We have no replacement for Kruger at this point when we traded DAnnult (I think he is 4th line shutdown center, I just don't see his upside)

But the problem is moving Shaw alone only opens up 1 mil in cap space. buying out bickell and we have to trade another player next year as well. The hawks are a team that people want to play for and Bowman needs to have a plan and he has not had one or had one that worked that last 2 years. As he says he does things and we will all make it work out down the road. When a player is willing to give the hawks a team friendly deal you keep them. if they do not you trade them, and do not get hung up with RFA or UFA. SAAD is going to make 5 mil less then SEABS over the next 5 years. Which player would you rather have in those 5 years? What is the difference between what SAAD asked for and what SEABS asked for? They both did not give team friendly deals.

- kmw4631


The other issues there are these:

1) they just signed him to a multi-year deal with a NMC that kicks in 7/1
2) he's an attractive asset as a shutdown 3C, but I wonder how much market/return you get for that
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Apr 27 @ 11:59 AM ET


want more goals or have those posts hit go in...shave an inch off the pipe diameter from 2 3/8 inch to 1.5 inches...

- bogiedoc

So for those double posts, that would have made a difference in the first round, maybe. But it is only a symptom of a bigger problem.

1. Revert to 80's sized goalie equipment.
2. Call the penalities, re-train the zebras.
3. Playoffs called same as RS.
hpk90
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: North Potomac, MD
Joined: 12.13.2011

Apr 27 @ 12:01 PM ET
The other issues there are these:

1) they just signed him to a multi-year deal with a NMC that kicks in 7/1
2) he's an attractive asset as a shutdown 3C, but I wonder how much market/return you get for that

- John Jaeckel


Does Kruger have any offensive potential that we have not seen yet? It would be huge for this team if he could generate points (like Shaw...)
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Apr 27 @ 12:02 PM ET
I'm not a scout or player rep--- but have been following and playing hockey nearly 50 years-- The bolded statement above is key-- the success of the Hawks has been the correct blend of players with the elite core---- and then the time to allow that chemistry to develop-- My criticism of Q is directly to this point-- It did not appear to me that he cultivated the environment for some of the new players to blend into the team-- Weise is probably the biggest example-- and there are others who had a very short leash-- Garbutt, Sekac, etc-- Daley asked to be traded so thats the deal there--

As far as evaluating players to trade or resign -- I'd be curious what the recent injuries to Shaw and Crawford are and how they might affect them long term-- If Crow was experiencing vertigo symptoms-- or was concussed-- and if Shaw has a chronic back issue-- that must play into the decision-- Have we seen the best of those 2 players-- Can the Hawks replace Shaw-- Can the Hawks win with Darling or another vet?

It is critically important for the Hawks to NOT fall in love (too long) with players - I would think they have learned that from Bickell--

Teuvo is a very young and talented 2 way player-- sees the game as an elite player-- BUT he will never be the banger or board player-- and I would ask what does this team need -- I think the Hawks already have what Teuvo brings-- so to me he could be expendable at the RIGHT price-- hopefully a 4D if possible-- BUT his contract is favorable-- and if they indeed decide to trade Crawford-- maybe keep Teuvo stays--

Seabrook is going nowhere-- that long term deal ensured this-- and he is an important leader on this team

Should be a very interesting off season-- to me Hawks still have a wide open window-- how the FO responds is the key--

- jb3333


I will buy into a part of what you are saying about Q and frankly I will never, ever understand his decision to dress Rundlad in Game 7, completely ridiculous and he got what he had coming to him as a result.

Garbutt, Weise, Sekac, Fleischmann are all marginal NHL players. They did nothing to impress Q enough to warrant more playing time. The only guy that did was Panik who stuck with it thru healthy scratches and eventually earned his spot in the lineup thru really aggressive play at both ends of the ice. And that is exactly how Andrew Shaw earned his spot and has never given it up.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Apr 27 @ 12:03 PM ET
Today's interview...
Blackhawks summer outlook http://chirb.it/8k57sL
NHL Radio-What will Stan Bowman do? TT-Shaw-Kruger
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 27 @ 12:05 PM ET
Al on XM right now. Thanks for your take on Shaw not being that easily replaced. I haven't seen anyone else come close to what he does night in and night out.
- Iknockuout


There is no positive, clear cut reason to deal CC, TVR, TT or Shaw's rights.

It comes down to contracts and replaceability (relatively speaking) and what the market gives you back for each.

The cap, recapture penalties, NTC/NMC clauses etc seriously limit who else you can deal.

Like I said, if they end up dealing to create space/acquire a blue liner, there is someone who is going to be unhappy. These are hard choices.

They made Kruger wait last summer and agree to a cheap deal for one year (at his own risk). Then they signed him for three years with a NMC. They're not trading him, folks. At least not this summer. HIGHLY unlikely

The team explored a couple of scenarios last summer and this past season involving CC and TT (separately). Teams inquire about Hartman. That's where I'd look for movement. But the possibilities may be expanded because the evidence of a defensive shortcoming is now there for everyone to see. And no, no one is going to do Stan any more favors.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 27 @ 12:05 PM ET
Today's interview...
Blackhawks summer outlook http://chirb.it/8k57sL
NHL Radio-What will Stan Bowman do? TT-Shaw-Kruger

- Al


In order of likelihood, IMO
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Apr 27 @ 12:06 PM ET



- maria_wyeth

So now we enter the "what if" scenarios.

Last season it was, "glad was won the cup after trading those players and picks, imagine if we didn't win". Well, we are here. Scary numbers. Thanks for posting.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a low cost re-signing or two in the coming weeks.

End of season presser in 25 mins.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 27 @ 12:06 PM ET
Does Kruger have any offensive potential that we have not seen yet? It would be huge for this team if he could generate points (like Shaw...)
- hpk90


Yes, but it is more as a setup guy than a scorer, the inverse of Shaw.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 27 @ 12:09 PM ET
Muscle is another thing and hockey strength another. I hope he can produce from the beginning and build some confidence that way going forward. I know he wants to be a better hockey player.
- MjulQvist


Agreed, and he needs the latter. But, whether you want to be built like Arnold or as strong as Magnus ver Magnusson, it means lots of time in the gym, paying the price.

I think it was Kimmo himself who said last summer (I believe specifically referring to TT in fact): "golf is not conditioning."
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Apr 27 @ 12:11 PM ET
It is really hard to say what the Hawks will be doing until we actually get a real cap number for next year.
Dieselhead
Location: CA
Joined: 11.01.2011

Apr 27 @ 12:14 PM ET
There is no positive, clear cut reason to deal CC, TVR, TT or Shaw's rights.

It comes down to contracts and replaceability (relatively speaking) and what the market gives you back for each.

The cap, recapture penalties, NTC/NMC clauses etc seriously limit who else you can deal.

Like I said, if they end up dealing to create space/acquire a blue liner, there is someone who is going to be unhappy. These are hard choices.

They made Kruger wait last summer and agree to a cheap deal for one year (at his own risk). Then they signed him for three years with a NMC. They're not trading him, folks. At least not this summer.

The team explored a couple of scenarios last summer and this past season involving CC and TT (separately). Teams inquire about Hartman. That's where I'd look for movement. But the possibilities may be expanded because the evidence of a defensive shortcoming is now there for everyone to see. And no, no one is going to do Stan any more favors.

- John Jaeckel


The last "favor" that Bowman received from anyone was Tallon taking on Soupy's contract. I guess you could call Panik a favor too, but otherwise Stan had paid top dollar for his acquisitions and now he has very little to work with. We might just have to cross our fingers and hope that Gus, Sveddy, Panik and TT blossom next season.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Apr 27 @ 12:16 PM ET
Thank you all, more to come, this is going to be an interesting offseason.

One thing that has been mentioned in this thread and all need to consider are the contracts and especially the no-movement/no-trade clauses.

I am a believer that a guy can be moved under those but it depends on the clause, where he's at with his contract and other factors—like his maybe wanted to be elsewhere anyway.

I will add this in to my next blog and then we can really focus on what the Hawks' real options are.

The truth is, they don't have a lot of options. There are few valuable chips Bowman can actually trade, or trade without hurting the club at the same time. And he needs to create cap room.

I believe Bowman has tried—a lot—over the last 12 months to package Bickell and his deal with a more attractive asset and had ZERO takers. So the only option likely left with Bickell is a buyout. Swallow the pill and get the cap room you can because the player has zero value anymore.

After that. I think you have to look at 3-4 players:

Shaw (dealing his RFA right)
Crawford (asking him for his list of teams he'll waive for)
TVR (packaging him with something for an upgrade_a legit top 4 guy with higher end ability)
TT

With Shaw, you have to look at guys like Ross or hartman, can either of them somewhat or completely fill Shaw;s shoes. Tall order. hartman, especially, is an intriguing prospect. And other teams like him too. Like him in return for a top 4 D, unlikely.

With Crawford, can Darling and some cheaper vet, really carry the mail—albeit backing an improved defense.

TVR. Again, maybe some team is wiling to do a defenseman with upside swap for a legit top 4 guy (and some other piece involved)

TT. You deal his upside and short-term cost certainty to someone who thinks they can develop him. My belief is there is enough bloom left on the rose that someone will bite. The price may have come down a bit though because there are legit questions what his best NHL position will be and how effective player he will be in all situations.

Kruger, Hossa, Seabrook, Kane, the other guys often mentioned, much harder to see them dealt for a variety of reasons.

And then there is always the hope of some lightning in a bottle discovery by the scouting staff, but in this instance I don't see it. So few defensemen come in the first year form Europe (anymore) and have an impact. Forwards. Yes. Goalies, Yes. Defensemen? I can't think of any in along time, maybe since the early 90s when all the Russians came over. The other issue is EVERYBODY is scouting Europe hard now, not just the Wings and the hawks and a few others.

To me it looks like a significant trade or two will happen—if the FO can get out of its own way.

- John Jaeckel

Do you believe --- or had any sources state --- a Bickell buyout was not allowed last year?

I keep going back to what could have been done, including moves during the draft, if Bickell were bought out on the first couple days of eligibility. The return on the Sharp trade and resigning JO and Kruger.

Think on how the entire offseason complexion changes if JO was back in the fold at or before the opening of FA. Then how the TDL is approached, including moving Danault.

DMCsPulledHammy
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Schaumburg, IL
Joined: 06.15.2014

Apr 27 @ 12:18 PM ET
Agreed, and he needs the latter. But, whether you want to be built like Arnold or as strong as Magnus ver Magnusson, it means lots of time in the gym, paying the price.

I think it was Kimmo himself who said last summer (I believe specifically referring to TT in fact): "golf is not conditioning."

- John Jaeckel


Even if he pays the price, it's no guarantee he gets the heart to go get the puck away from a Backes/Ott type. Hopefully pounds of muscles translates into courage, but it's not a guarantee.

I was really disheartened when I saw him try to jar the puck loose in a Game 7 with a weak attempt with the stick. Hopefully he gets it, but at this point, he doesn't.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Apr 27 @ 12:18 PM ET
It is really hard to say what the Hawks will be doing until we actually get a real cap number for next year.
- breadbag


True, but based on current roster commitments and Panarin's bonuses, they are probably going to be somewhere between ok and really strapped.
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