Trade bickell tt and either pokka svedberg or Gustavsson for severson and late draft pick.
Trade Shaw to clb for rychel gallant and Hartnell at half retained 2 mil I think. Sign vet dman Campbell or someone tough.
Panik toews kane
Panarin anisimov rychel
Hartnell kruger hossa
Desi / gallant Rasmussen Hartman

Seabrook keith
Hjalmasson severson
TVr Campbell veteran tough fa.

Snapper you might be too smart, logical, progressive, and truthful for the old boys network that is NHL management. Part of me wants to PM you and ask what you do, but I know it's none of my business. I'll just keep my nose in check and enjoy the posts.
- 6628

>Hey 66, will PM you when I can share a sneak preview -- in development right now
>Thanks for your support and very glad to be part of this board

Same here. Always well spoken.

Thought of you last night on double post shots and guys falling all over the place. Seemed ice was bad or guys were off their edges.
- SteveRain

>Rainman, much appreciated

Kane game took a big step forward during the year of the lockout and he has steadily improved each year after. He has a better shot, stronger to the net and the part you touched on he can create space for his own shot.
- Al

>Yep, that ability to create his own shot is rarefied NHL air

You're too hard on Toews. He struggled more this year because of who he played with. Toews got keyed on every single night. Every team learned to overplay him. Toews’ possession numbers were down, but player possession numbers reflect as much about the skills of the line as they do about the skills of the individual player. And Toews is not a guy that wants to continually grind down low. During 3x3 play, you could clearly see his moves and elite-level of offensive ability. Toews can be an exciting player when given the time and space – something his teammates did not often create for him.
- etchtech

>Maybe
>Let me say I have enjoyed the metrics you have been posting
>But when Toews came into the league, he was a more dynamic open ice player -- and that game has dried up -- other than the 3 on 3 gimmick
>Al and I both mentioned how Kane now creates his own shot in all situations and coverages -- would like to see Toews do the same
>And JT's shot needs work
>Great player -- rooting for him to get even greater

The Blues had to score at least 6 goals off high deflections which for the most part went off Hawks sticks.
- Al

>Looked to me like Hitch studied the Hawk-Kings 2014 WCF
>And plugged his Blues players into the Kings players positions and "tendencies"
>Blueline shots with Kings players gliding into the slot from all directions was a Kings trademark copied by the Blues -- with the same great success
>Time for the Hawks to adjust

The Hawks are a very impressive team, there's no doubt. But somehow I think this might be the end of their run. Building and maintaining this type of excellence in the salary Cap era is almost impossible.

We can see the gap between the stars and the support players getting bigger each year. Essentially playing without a 5/6 D pairing runs its toll on the others. When was the last time you guys had a truly reliable 2C who could take some of the heat off Toews (I'm sorry, but Anisimov is NOT that guy)? The farm system has been picked over to prop up the NHL roster, and continuously picking in the late 20's (or not at all) has slowed the replenishment. But this is what happens with teams who are legitimate contenders, so there's no fault for this.

Your core is obviously still amazing, so the Hawks will still be contenders. But I think there were cracks this year for maybe the first time during this team's run. The Cap gets to every team eventually, it's the nature of winning...it's expensive.

Great work this year JJ, BTW. Starting all the way last June you had a LOT of news to report and analyze and you did a phenomenal job.
- djamon

I totally agree. This blog is a regular part of my day and I really enjoy your work and the comments of the others.

It seems like the main reason the Blackhawks fell in the first round this year was the short, difficult summer. Everyone from last year’s team looked pretty tired and/or injured most of the season. The Kane situation kind of handcuffed the front office for a while and I’m not sure if the team every fully came back together because last year wasn’t easy either. This longer summer should help.

To win a cup this year they needed Ladd, Weise, and Flieschman more than they needed Dano, Danault, and draft picks. I’m glad Bowman made those moves.

But the move he didn’t make cost them because they really, really, really needed another 4-6 defenseman that wouldn’t make big mistakes and they didn’t get that so they aren’t advancing to round two. Woulda, coulda, shoulda….

As for next season, Bowman is going to need to earn his paycheck this summer. They need to find a way to keep Shaw and get Panarin’s extension signed THIS offseason. I’d be ok letting TT go in a trade if it brings back a defenseman. The guy I’d like to get is Travis Hamonic. It’ll be interesting to see how his play improves as the playoffs continue given his knee injury. Then, plug in some hungry vets and young guys and who knows what might happen. This core has a few more runs in them. 19 and 88 have a few more on top of that with new costars.

I wish I could be watching the Hawks for a few more weeks but, alas, maybe I’ll get some other things done instead. Go Hawks!

Well good luck! Whether that is a new relationship or a rekindling of an old one...


Seriously, though - your analysis is excellent. Thanks.
- DMChi2010

>Many thanks
>Much appreciated

Hawks have about 7 million in cap space to replace 8 players on the NHL roster. Two of them (Shaw and Panik) are RFAs...Shaw is at 2mill, Panik at 900K.

Do the math. The cap structure is a colossal train wreck.

What will Panik get? What will he accept?

Same for Shaw? Why should he "take a discount" when no one else will? He is at 2million, at the very least he is 3million+ (I say around Kruger money).

Shaw's RFA rights may be traded. I suspect Mark McNeill (also an RFA) may be changing addresses. Even if you don't resign Shaw you still are at the 7 million for 8 players. This is fringe NHLers and bargain bin guys.

There is NO WAY around it UNLESS you move a big salary or two. Expect 4 Rockford players to come up and 4 fringer NHLers UNLESS Bowman has a bag of tricks up his sleeve. However, after watching him work last summer where Dallas basically bent him over the barrel I am not convinced he can fix this mess.
- kwolf68

Sorry if this has already been answered, but I worked 12 hours yesterday, and 12 more today, so I am not reading 20 pages. Does the $7 million include a buyout of Bickell's contract? If not, that would clear up 2 million more, right? That may allow them to resign Shaw.

That being said, if they're not going to be able to sign Shaw, maybe he's the piece that can get them out from Bickell's contract without retaining salary. They wouldn't get much in return, but it would be nice to have $4 million off the books.

some good points here....Bowman may not be the genius that some thought he was last year
- etchtech

thx etch....personally I never was one of those that thought Bowman was. As I mentioned a caretaker. When he's been able to work around the edges he's been ok. Like the Vermette move - no brainer. Oduya wasn't bad either.

But the overpay for Bickell and then hanging onto Bicks and Sharp past their sell date has reeked havoc. And what did they get after they hung onto Leddy all summer before moving him. What's more discerning is the fact that he thought that Rundblad could play and was a priority. That's a huge red flag. The Timonen thing is still ridiculous as well. Why target a guy that hadn't played in a year and then give up that much. And what was your favorite moment of the Marty Turco era.

Sure all GMs make mistakes but the Hawks FO likes to act like they can do no wrong. More PR spin from McD and company. The Sharp mess was labeled 'a good old fashioned hockey trade' - no what it was was a fleecing by a GM that knew what he was doing and Bowman paid dearly.

I really didn't care for what they did to Dale, but that's all McD and control. Dale's building another strong team in South Fla. Still though wish we had an actual hockey guy running it instead of a finance major from Notre Dame.

The Hawks end of season presser is this morning...I'm sure it'll be a ton of softball questions - nothing about the Sharp/ Oduya or Runny...just happy times and smiles all the way around. Because if the beat writers ask anything realistic they'll have their credentials revoked faster than you can say Brendan Morrison.

Trade the guy who scored 40% of your team's goals? You just create a much bigger problem trying to address another. You'd trade 27 yr old MVP+Art Ross over 31 yr old Top 10 goalie? No way do the Hawks trade Kane. And not everyone on this board wanted Kane traded.
- EnzoD

Imagine if you were able to trade both??!!

You'd get a king's ransom for Kane right now from a team like Florida that has prospects and picks to part with, along with the cap space to afford to bring him in without disrupting the entire roster.

You could trade Crawford to the Isles, who also have solid prospects that could refresh the Hawks, since Greiss isn't the solution going forward and Halak would be expendable.

Look at this season. Kane was on fire in the regular season, but wasn't able to produce in teh playoffs. wouldn't you rather have a refreshed d group with guys who can move the puck from the backend to spark offensive pressure... that was when the Hawks were most dangerous.

I totally agree. This blog is a regular part of my day and I really enjoy your work and the comments of the others.
- matt_ahrens

Thank you all, more to come, this is going to be an interesting offseason.

One thing that has been mentioned in this thread and all need to consider are the contracts and especially the no-movement/no-trade clauses.

I am a believer that a guy can be moved under those but it depends on the clause, where he's at with his contract and other factors—like his maybe wanted to be elsewhere anyway.

I will add this in to my next blog and then we can really focus on what the Hawks' real options are.

The truth is, they don't have a lot of options. There are few valuable chips Bowman can actually trade, or trade without hurting the club at the same time. And he needs to create cap room.

I believe Bowman has tried—a lot—over the last 12 months to package Bickell and his deal with a more attractive asset and had ZERO takers. So the only option likely left with Bickell is a buyout. Swallow the pill and get the cap room you can because the player has zero value anymore.

After that. I think you have to look at 3-4 players:

Shaw (dealing his RFA right)
Crawford (asking him for his list of teams he'll waive for)
TVR (packaging him with something for an upgrade_a legit top 4 guy with higher end ability)
TT

With Shaw, you have to look at guys like Ross or hartman, can either of them somewhat or completely fill Shaw;s shoes. Tall order. hartman, especially, is an intriguing prospect. And other teams like him too. Like him in return for a top 4 D, unlikely.

With Crawford, can Darling and some cheaper vet, really carry the mail—albeit backing an improved defense.

TVR. Again, maybe some team is wiling to do a defenseman with upside swap for a legit top 4 guy (and some other piece involved)

TT. You deal his upside and short-term cost certainty to someone who thinks they can develop him. My belief is there is enough bloom left on the rose that someone will bite. The price may have come down a bit though because there are legit questions what his best NHL position will be and how effective player he will be in all situations.

Kruger, Hossa, Seabrook, Kane, the other guys often mentioned, much harder to see them dealt for a variety of reasons.

And then there is always the hope of some lightning in a bottle discovery by the scouting staff, but in this instance I don't see it. So few defensemen come in the first year form Europe (anymore) and have an impact. Forwards. Yes. Goalies, Yes. Defensemen? I can't think of any in along time, maybe since the early 90s when all the Russians came over. The other issue is EVERYBODY is scouting Europe hard now, not just the Wings and the hawks and a few others.

To me it looks like a significant trade or two will happen—if the FO can get out of its own way.

You have a redo, one chance, today. Do you do it or not?...........
- Mr Ricochet

No Q wouldn't play him..........................................

Wonder what college FAs the Hawks are looking at. Wonder if Jimmy Vesey is on the list..? Haven't seen him play but I think playing with a guy like Hossa could help a ton for developing a two way and cycle game. Interesting off season for sure.

Thank you all, more to come, this is going to be an interesting offseason.

One thing that has been mentioned in this thread and all need to consider are the contracts and especially the no-movement/no-trade clauses.

I am a believer that a guy can be moved under those but it depends on the clause, where he's at with his contract and other factors—like his maybe wanted to be elsewhere anyway.

I will add this in to my next blog and then we can really focus on what the Hawks' real options are.

The truth is, they don't have a lot of options. There are few valuable chips Bowman can actually trade, or trade without hurting the club at the same time. And he needs to create cap room.

I believe Bowman has tried—a lot—over the last 12 months to package Bickell and his deal with a more attractive asset and had ZERO takers. So the only option likely left with Bickell is a buyout. Swallow the pill and get the cap room you can because the player has zero value anymore.

After that. I think you have to look at 3-4 players:

Shaw (dealing his RFA right)
Crawford (asking him for his list of teams he'll waive for)
TVR (packaging him with something for an upgrade_a legit top 4 guy with higher end ability)
TT

With Shaw, you have to look at guys like Ross or hartman, can either of them somewhat or completely fill Shaw;s shoes. Tall order. hartman, especially, is an intriguing prospect. And other teams like him too. Like him in return for a top 4 D, unlikely.

With Crawford, can Darling and some cheaper vet, really carry the mail—albeit backing an improved defense.

TVR. Again, maybe some team is wiling to do a defenseman with upside swap for a legit top 4 guy (and some other piece involved)

TT. You deal his upside and short-term cost certainty to someone who thinks they can develop him. My belief is there is enough bloom left on the rose that someone will bite. The price may have come down a bit though because there are legit questions what his best NHL position will be and how effective player he will be in all situations.

Kruger, Hossa, Seabrook, Kane, the other guys often mentioned, much harder to see them dealt for a variety of reasons.

And then there is always the hope of some lightning in a bottle discovery by the scouting staff, but in this instance I don't see it. So few defensemen come in the first year form Europe (anymore) and have an impact. Forwards. Yes. Goalies, Yes. Defensemen? I can't think of any in along time, maybe since the early 90s when all the Russians came over. The other issue is EVERYBODY is scouting Europe hard now, not just the Wings and the hawks and a few others.

To me it looks like a significant trade or two will happen—if the FO can get out of its own way.
- John Jaeckel

Time to refresh the roster a bit and graduate some kids to full time NHL duty and force feed it down Q's throat as necessary.

They have their big 3 on the backend and 7 or 8 guys with contracts that cost under $1M - TVR, Gustafsson, Pokka, Svedburg, Norell, Dahlstrom and Fournier. Some of that group has to play because there is no Vladdy Fetisov coming out of the Russian forest to play in September.

Same with the forwards - pick a couple guys from that Rockford group that have to get a jersey next year and play - Rasmussen, Kero, McNeill, Hartman, Ross, Hinostroza etc.

Dumping TT at this point makes no sense to me because he is cheap for one more year. He is a similar type of player to Sam Reinhart who got sent back to junior after being drafted and this year scored 20 goals because he was bigger and stronger. Give TT a 4 month off season conditioning program and a list of expectations when he arrives back in September. He still has the potential to be a very, very good player if properly managed - the longer offseason should help.

Time to refresh the roster a bit and graduate some kids to full time NHL duty and force feed it down Q's throat as necessary.

They have their big 3 on the backend and 7 or 8 guys with contracts that cost under $1M - TVR, Gustafsson, Pokka, Svedburg, Norell, Dahlstrom and Fournier. Some of that group has to play because there is no Vladdy Fetisov coming out of the Russian forest to play in September.

Same with the forwards - pick a couple guys from that Rockford group that have to get a jersey next year and play - Rasmussen, Kero, McNeill, Hartman, Ross, Hinostroza etc.

Dumping TT at this point makes no sense to me because he is cheap for one more year. He is a similar type of player to Sam Reinhart who got sent back to junior after being drafted and this year scored 20 goals because he was bigger and stronger. Give TT a 4 month off season conditioning program and a list of expectations when he arrives back in September. He still has the potential to be a very, very good player if properly managed - the longer offseason should help.
- RickJ

Give TT a few weeks to go home and hang out. Then insist he gets back here for supervised workouts. if he balks trade him while he is still cap friendly for a better return than you'd get next year. Without putting in the offseason work he's never going to be strong enough.

Or - angle the posts so more pucks deflect into the net.

I prefer Al's solution - shrink the trapper.

But - I don't care about more goals - I want better flow - call the interfering grabs and holds, the very late hits - eventually the interferences will stop, the flow will be better, and we'll be able to enjoy the speed and grace and skill that these world class athletes are capable of.

There were several 1-0 games this week (including the double OT Isles-Panthers game 6) - great games, great action - I enjoyed them completely.
- StLBravesFan

Vancouver re-signed Granlund to a 2 year $900,000 AAV deal. I would expect something similar for Panik.
- DarthKane

I'm hoping a 3 year deal at $950 or $975. If the hawks ever have concerns about a player and if they are NHL quality offer at or Just over what you can bury in the AHL. It would be nice to get 1 extra year. He will be UFA after a 2 year deal that is why I would like a 3 year deal.

I'm fine moving Shaw. His value will probably never be higher. We have no replacement for Kruger at this point when we traded DAnnult (I think he is 4th line shutdown center, I just don't see his upside)

But the problem is moving Shaw alone only opens up 1 mil in cap space. buying out bickell and we have to trade another player next year as well. The hawks are a team that people want to play for and Bowman needs to have a plan and he has not had one or had one that worked that last 2 years. As he says he does things and we will all make it work out down the road. When a player is willing to give the hawks a team friendly deal you keep them. if they do not you trade them, and do not get hung up with RFA or UFA. SAAD is going to make 5 mil less then SEABS over the next 5 years. Which player would you rather have in those 5 years? What is the difference between what SAAD asked for and what SEABS asked for? They both did not give team friendly deals.

Thank you all, more to come, this is going to be an interesting offseason.

One thing that has been mentioned in this thread and all need to consider are the contracts and especially the no-movement/no-trade clauses.

I am a believer that a guy can be moved under those but it depends on the clause, where he's at with his contract and other factors—like his maybe wanted to be elsewhere anyway.

I will add this in to my next blog and then we can really focus on what the Hawks' real options are.

The truth is, they don't have a lot of options. There are few valuable chips Bowman can actually trade, or trade without hurting the club at the same time. And he needs to create cap room.

I believe Bowman has tried—a lot—over the last 12 months to package Bickell and his deal with a more attractive asset and had ZERO takers. So the only option likely left with Bickell is a buyout. Swallow the pill and get the cap room you can because the player has zero value anymore.

After that. I think you have to look at 3-4 players:

Shaw (dealing his RFA right)
Crawford (asking him for his list of teams he'll waive for)
TVR (packaging him with something for an upgrade_a legit top 4 guy with higher end ability)
TT

With Shaw, you have to look at guys like Ross or hartman, can either of them somewhat or completely fill Shaw;s shoes. Tall order. hartman, especially, is an intriguing prospect. And other teams like him too. Like him in return for a top 4 D, unlikely.

With Crawford, can Darling and some cheaper vet, really carry the mail—albeit backing an improved defense.

TVR. Again, maybe some team is wiling to do a defenseman with upside swap for a legit top 4 guy (and some other piece involved)

TT. You deal his upside and short-term cost certainty to someone who thinks they can develop him. My belief is there is enough bloom left on the rose that someone will bite. The price may have come down a bit though because there are legit questions what his best NHL position will be and how effective player he will be in all situations.

Kruger, Hossa, Seabrook, Kane, the other guys often mentioned, much harder to see them dealt for a variety of reasons.

And then there is always the hope of some lightning in a bottle discovery by the scouting staff, but in this instance I don't see it. So few defensemen come in the first year form Europe (anymore) and have an impact. Forwards. Yes. Goalies, Yes. Defensemen? I can't think of any in along time, maybe since the early 90s when all the Russians came over. The other issue is EVERYBODY is scouting Europe hard now, not just the Wings and the hawks and a few others.

To me it looks like a significant trade or two will happen—if the FO can get out of its own way.
- John Jaeckel

Thanks for all you do, and I hope you find happiness with your upcoming wedding.

Unfortunately, I tend to agree with your assessment above. The inclination of this Front Office seems to be the trade route to make the team better.

However, the team may not be able to buy or trade its way to success in the next few years. I presume that if Detroit has been the franchise that the Blackhawks have been emulating, then it is time to see if the "grow your own" philosophy works. Out of necessity, it may be time for the kids in Rockford to step up into a variety of roles including some that none of us might prefer like: wingers on one or both sides of Toews; one or two defensemen to play alongside TVR, Seabrook, Keith and Hammer; and a backup goalie. Some of the guys that the organization has been drafting and grooming have to be ready to play now rather than in a year or two like we would prefer. It is definitely opportunity time for a lot of guys if the organization decides to "let the kids play" (to steal an old White Sox marketing phrase).

Finally, is Q the right kind of coach for a roster with multiple inexperienced players at key positions? Sometimes the answer to this question appears to be yes, and sometimes no...

JJ sorta nails it spot on.

The Hawks are in serious trouble:

-Very little cap room. Many players needed to be resigned. With Panarin bonus the best you can hope for is a cap increase to wash that out. I am seeing about 7 million to resign 8 or 9 players (not counting Panik and Shaw)

-Minor league cupboard pretty baron now. Maybe a couple decent forward prospects, mostly bottom 6 guys. At most, two with higher upside, but that's still TBD. I do like Motte and Smlatz and Hayden and Bondra are sleepers. Kero and Hino are nice but smallish.

-Weak minor league system equates to inability to replenish roster. NHL now littered with former Blackhawks players playing roles.

-Shaw (as well as all UFAs) most certainly gone.

-If Bowman's "hands were tied" last season and no one would deal with him how do things change this year? One option is Bowman STOP waiting until the last minute trade high quality players (Sharp, Leddy) and getting virtually nothing for them.

-A big money player WILL have to go in my view. I think right now EVERY option has to be considered. Yes, I believe Crawford is a candidate and YES that would hurt the Hawks

-I don't think the Hawks can compete next year for a long run, sorry "rest" isn't enough. You need talent, and depth. The Hawks only have talent in one place (the top end of the roster). Unless Bowman has something really amazing up his sleeve the Hawks will be left with two options:

1) Fill out roster with kids,rejects and bargain bin options while running core 8 or 9 players into dirt
2) Trade KEY piece, which likely decreases overall talent at top of roster while HOPING newly acquired pieces can fill in

The numbers are what they are. And mind you I DO NOT expect a Cup next year. There are just way too many variables to overcome, but perhaps some very intelligent management can get the Hawks into play in two years, when Bickell is off the books and the Hawks would have one player (Panarin) to deal with. By then perhaps a couple of the aforementioned kids will have developed. Only problem is in two years Hossa, Seabrook are two years older. How will that extra wear and tear impact them.

I'll be honest. I am not a fan of Bowman. Never have been. The entire lot of the core (Hossa, Toews, Kane, Seabrook, Keith, Crawford, Hammer) EVERY last one of them is a product of 1 of the 2 former GMs. Yes, he has made a few good deals. Getting Leddy was nice, trouble is he washed that away by a poor trade in sending him off. And sorry I refuse to give Bowman credit for TDLs like Vermette. It takes NO genius to send a top prospect+#1 pick for a rental player.

As I said I liked the initial Leddy move, the Panik move has potential and draft picks of Saad and Shaw were very good, but overall this "brilliant" GM has done nothing but tinker around the edges and has 3 garbage moves for every 1 good move he makes. The core guys I still maintain OVERCOME the poor front office decisions (as well as the poor coaching decisions). They won the 2013 Cup with VERY questionable concerns at center so they tried the SAME model in 2014 and missed on their goal. They then fixed their center in 2015, won another Cup but did so WITHOUT anything on the bottom pair so they tried that same model this year. Again, so close yet so far. I am very proud of this franchise, it has been the beset we've ever seen, but I have to wonder what we'd be talking about today had this franchise been more proactive and addressed the center position AFTER winning the Cup and the Defense position addressed AFTER the most recent Cup?

This core is probably the best we've seen in a generation, all they need is reasonable support players. You don't need Shae Weber on your third pair, but rolling out Kimo Timonene, Michael Handzus, David Rundblad...players who were subsequently out of the sport the moment after their last Blackhawk season ended or who were rejected by EVERY SINGLE team in the NHL does not inspire confidence that they can now navigate a salary cap and team issue this team has NEVER SEEN before. Sorry, this cap situation is vastly worse than previous years in my view.

The Kruger signing is not a mistake. Assuming signing one means the other goes I still take Kruger over Shaw, but it's close. Kruger's absense would be felt much more than Shaw's. Look what happened to the PK when Krugs was out. Damn salary cap.
- DarthKane

The PK Kruger was part of that was brutal against the Blues? I'd prefer Shaw. With the cap issues can't justify Krugers salary. He brings nothing on offense. Just my opinion you can get equally as good pkers for half the price.

The Kruger signing is not a mistake. Assuming signing one means the other goes I still take Kruger over Shaw, but it's close. Kruger's absense would be felt much more than Shaw's. Look what happened to the PK when Krugs was out. Damn salary cap.
- DarthKane

The PK Kruger was part of that was brutal against the Blues? I'd prefer Shaw. With the cap issues can't justify Krugers salary. He brings nothing on offense. Just my opinion you can get equally as good pkers for half the price.

The PK Kruger was part of that was brutal against the Blues? I'd prefer Shaw. With the cap issues can't justify Krugers salary. He brings nothing on offense. Just my opinion you can get equally as good pkers for half the price.
- bhawks2241

Given what Kruger does overall there aren't too many equals, especially at half the price. I lik Shaw too, it will be sad to see him go.