Pretty sure it wasn't that long ago (maybe last off-season) that you were talking about how great and hopeful the Yotes D looked...
- RonPielep

that was before gormley was traded. he is the equivalent of 2 players.

Hey James, thanks to you I've become an analytics guy. When I watch games I pay special attention to the players who excel in that regard even though a lot of fans think they suck. Marincin is really impressive. Since the leafs went all in on the analytic movement a few years back I assume that's the reason they traded for him. He has a great first pass and great stick...breaks up a lot of plays. But I hope he doesn't become a punching bag for fans who can't see him for what he is. Cheers

I saw how to fix the worst blue line and thought you may have written a canucks blog and had an answer for me. Yay canucks blue line isn't the worst.

Bob MacKenzie isn't even a good writer and all his information is fed to him through the network - if he quit tomorrow whoever replaced him would be equally as good but look less like Jay Leno.

Considering my resources, I am a far more effective than MacKenzie on a /60 basis. Factor in my simple yet effective Norman Mailer-esque prose style and I am essentially the most underrated blogger in the league.
- James_Tanner

I think better D equals better goalie for sure and probably increased point production out of the forwards. Domi and Duclair both got around 50 points but if they didn't have half the roster incapable of making a pass at the NHL level they'd probably have a lot more.
- James_Tanner

I think it would be foolishly optimistic to project more than 60 points for each of those players next year. Even 60 points is pretty optimistic imo.

I doubt Fowler becomes available and like you stated, the most likely player moved is Vatanen and he will likely go east where he will thrive similar to what happened to Hagelin.
If you switch the pick to the Yotes first rounder I'd do this deal. The problem with the Hawks first round pick is it's basically a second round pick, albeit a high second rounder.

that was before gormley was traded. he is the equivalent of 2 players.
- rinaldo

Ahh yes, minus a Gormley and you go from one of the most promising to one of the worst.

Pretty sure it wasn't that long ago (maybe last off-season) that you were talking about how great and hopeful the Yotes D looked...
- RonPielep

Shouldn't we praise people for learning and changing their mind instead of holding fast to outdated thoughts? Isn't it ridiculous to always try to show everyone up as a hypocrite or to catch them in some kind of inconsistency?

A year ago, I thought Dahlbeck was a good acquisition, I still believed that Gormely would turn into an impact player and that Murphy and Stone would be better than they are. I also never though Michalek's game would fall right off a cliff.

It's the NHL, if a player doesn't live up to all the hype, that makes a huge difference, if even one player busts out or gets traded, so does that.

complete garbage no. he is playing a role he really shouldn't. have him on your bottom pair and your in good shape.
- rinaldo

yotes need something better than a bottom pair dman. i think they would pass on schultz.

Hey James, thanks to you I've become an analytics guy. When I watch games I pay special attention to the players who excel in that regard even though a lot of fans think they suck. Marincin is really impressive. Since the leafs went all in on the analytic movement a few years back I assume that's the reason they traded for him. He has a great first pass and great stick...breaks up a lot of plays. But I hope he doesn't become a punching bag for fans who can't see him for what he is. Cheers
- shack67

Thanks. I always appreciate when someone says they enjoy my work. (Who doesn't?) Like you, I'm just open to new ways of looking at things and believe the more we know the bettter we can be. Certainly there is alot of pushback from old-school types, but hey, it's just a game. I like Marincin too!

I think it would be foolishly optimistic to project more than 60 points for each of those players next year. Even 60 points is pretty optimistic imo.
- RonPielep

60 points is a hell of alot of points. I agree with you here. Regression does tend to occur in a second year as well.

James Tanner: How to Fix the NHL's Worst Blue-Line
Some guys for the new Coyotes GM to target.
- James_Tanner

Just get Pronger to un-retire.

Fixed.

Great another Edmonton Oilers blog...

yotes need something better than a bottom pair dman. i think they would pass on schultz.
- Tumbleweed

correct though need to start somewhere!!!

Shouldn't we praise people for learning and changing their mind instead of holding fast to outdated thoughts? Isn't it ridiculous to always try to show everyone up as a hypocrite or to catch them in some kind of inconsistency?

A year ago, I thought Dahlbeck was a good acquisition, I still believed that Gormely would turn into an impact player and that Murphy and Stone would be better than they are. I also never though Michalek's game would fall right off a cliff.

It's the NHL, if a player doesn't live up to all the hype, that makes a huge difference, if even one player busts out or gets traded, so does that.
- James_Tanner

Bold is a good answer. I was mostly just asking to see if you were going to make up some kind of excuse. But essentially saying "I was wrong and I've changed my mind" is a perfectly acceptable response.

I just hope you have actually learned from this process and will be more critical/realistic in your evaluations of your own teams prospects next time instead of being way too optimistic causing these types of bi-polar evaluations over very short cycles.

Great another Edmonton Oilers blog...
- geta02it

My first thoughts exactly.

correct though need to start somewhere!!!
- rinaldo

they already started with grossman. not going back to the same well for schultz.

60 points is a hell of alot of points. I agree with you here. Regression does tend to occur in a second year as well.
- James_Tanner

I hear this said a lot and I kind of take it at face value. But is this a pretty well-known statistical reality?

what about enstrom from the jets?

if he was willing to waive, i suspect they would like to clear out a dman contract. shouldn't be expensive to acquire.

Question...what about Morgan Rielly's new contract and Mr. Dubas being an analytics guy....Morgan's the worst D on the Leafs roster....was this a good signing?

Or is this just another anomaly? It seems CF is full of anomaly's...does that still make it an anomaly?

Bold is a good answer. I was mostly just asking to see if you were going to make up some kind of excuse. But essentially saying "I was wrong and I've changed my mind" is a perfectly acceptable response.

I just hope you have actually learned from this process and will be more critical/realistic in your evaluations of your own teams prospects next time instead of being way too optimistic causing these types of bi-polar evaluations over very short cycles.
- RonPielep

I would say that when I began this gig, I sort of took a huge homer attitude but have tried to develop into a more thoughtful, realistic kind of writer. That isn't to say that I don't still overhype my own guys or that I am not extremely prone to hyperbole (my best friend won't take movie reviews from me anymore because he says that I say everything is 'the best ever," for example).

I see myself as perhaps able to fill a niche as kind of an entertaining commentator/hockey enthusiast as opposed to some kind of serious journalist. I am a fiction writer and not a hockey expert, but I'm here to entertain and most days I have a lot of fun.

Hockey and its fans - even some other writers who will not associate with me for whatever reason (likely many legit one) - take itself way too seriously.

Hey James, thanks to you I've become an analytics guy. When I watch games I pay special attention to the players who excel in that regard even though a lot of fans think they suck. Marincin is really impressive. Since the leafs went all in on the analytic movement a few years back I assume that's the reason they traded for him. He has a great first pass and great stick...breaks up a lot of plays. But I hope he doesn't become a punching bag for fans who can't see him for what he is. Cheers
- shack67

Well if the puck always goes in our net when he's on the ice...then cf = zero.

If he can be on the ice and keep the puck out of our net....then cf= who cares.

It's not true that you can't watch and see how good a player is....unless your drunk or not paying attention

I would say that when I began this gig, I sort of took a huge homer attitude but have tried to develop into a more thoughtful, realistic kind of writer. That isn't to say that I don't still overhype my own guys or that I am not extremely prone to hyperbole (my best friend won't take movie reviews from me anymore because he says that I say everything is 'the best ever," for example).

I see myself as perhaps able to fill a niche as kind of an entertaining commentator/hockey enthusiast as opposed to some kind of serious journalist. I am a fiction writer and not a hockey expert, but I'm here to entertain and most days I have a lot of fun.

Hockey and its fans - even some other writers who will not associate with me for whatever reason (likely many legit one) - take itself way too seriously.
- James_Tanner

then why do you get people banned?

I hear this said a lot and I kind of take it at face value. But is this a pretty well-known statistical reality?
- RonPielep

Confirmation bias must play a role - the sophmore jinx etc - but I can see some psychological reasons for second year players struggling, on top of which the league adjusts, and a lot of players experiencing a large drop off would simply be that you notice guys who exceed expectations and since luck is such a factor, a rookie who exceeds performance and then has bad luck to drop below their floor looks like a massive drop-off when it's possible, even likely, that player didn't play much differently.

So, I would say there are some good reasons to believe in the sophmore jinx beyond just superstition. But I'd still take it with a grain of salt when people use that phrase and I'd be interested to see if anyone has studied it. I will try to remember to look later as I can't afford an hour trip down the Google Rabbit Hole right now.

what about enstrom from the jets?

if he was willing to waive, i suspect they would like to clear out a dman contract. shouldn't be expensive to acquire.
- Tumbleweed

How old is he? I will have to look into him later.