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Forums :: Blog World :: Carol Schram: Vancouver Canucks Game Review: Taking It to the Limit To End Year vs Oilers
Author Message
anavar
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.29.2008

Apr 11 @ 2:42 PM ET
That's 110 %
- VANTEL

lol yeah it is roughly 34% for top 3 and 66 for 4,5,6. With 6 being roughly 14% on its own.
thundachunk
Location: Help
Joined: 12.31.2011

Apr 11 @ 2:43 PM ET
He cleared out Ference, Shultz and some other pieces over the year (adding a few picks at the TDL), brought in Kassian and Maroon to add forward depth with size and toughness, and most importantly he got Talbot who is still young and developing but an upgrade over the shuffle before. It takes time, and they seem more willing now to move a big piece for defense, I just dont see them going absurd and moving someone like LD in a package of other assets just to acquire 1 defenseman
- WhiteLie

Kassian and Moron are dip$hits and misfits that were shipped out because of there antics on previous teams, Ference and Schultz where unless. Talbot is a good back up goalie. If your not willing to make a bold move as a GM to make your team better you shouldn't be a GM. These were all inconsequential moves.
thundachunk
Location: Help
Joined: 12.31.2011

Apr 11 @ 2:44 PM ET
Funny, if we get anything less than 3rd pick I'll be pissed.

And if it does happen... I'll blame Benning.

- bloatedmosquito

I'll blame Stephen Harper.
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Apr 11 @ 2:45 PM ET
That's 110 %
- VANTEL


haha thanks, my maths are almost as exceptional as me

58% we get one of 4, 5 or 6
I did double check my maths on the top 3, it is 42% we get those picks
I'm learning school
thundachunk
Location: Help
Joined: 12.31.2011

Apr 11 @ 2:45 PM ET
Why not? It gives the skilled players coming out of college incredible leverage.
- bloatedmosquito

It does give us more to ague about as well.
anavar
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.29.2008

Apr 11 @ 2:45 PM ET
lol yeah it is roughly 34% for top 3 and 66 for 4,5,6. With 6 being roughly 14% on its own.
- anavar

Also, just looked 50% for top 4 and 50% for 5 or 6.
anavar
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.29.2008

Apr 11 @ 2:46 PM ET
haha thanks, my maths are almost as exceptional as me

58% we get one of 4, 5 or 6
I did double check my maths on the top 3, it is 42% we get those picks
I'm learning school

- neem55

Are you sure? this was posted the other day
11.5 - 1
11.435 - 2
11.259 - 3
14.196 - 4
37.809 - 5
13.801 - 6
WhiteLie
Referee
Location: When youre 7 pages behind Dont bother catching up, you will never get that time back - Codes1087
Joined: 07.26.2010

Apr 11 @ 2:47 PM ET
Boeser goes back for a year.

Demko would not throw on a Canucks jersey unless Marky or Miller get injured anyway. I expect Demko to spend a full year in Utica MINIMUM before he gets a backup role with the Canucks.

- Codes1087


Despite either one going back, they can change their minds at any time. If Boeser or Demko goes back to school and it wasnt what they expected, both can come out and play NHL/AHL right away. Guys leave college all the time to go to the CHL (Tambellini's son is one I can recall in the past few years), and they can easily walk away mid season to join a professional team.

Or the Canucks just start sending gifts and money to both of them to ruin their NCAA eligibility...
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Apr 11 @ 2:48 PM ET
lol yeah it is roughly 34% for top 3 and 66 for 4,5,6. With 6 being roughly 14% on its own.
- anavar


No. when your calculating odds across events, you don't just add 11% together three times because you are calculating the odds of one of three events happening, which is 42% in this case.

Here's an article from Sportsnet that talks about odds of teams, since it's something we're talking about:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...rs-senators-jets-canucks/
Codes1087
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 09.24.2014

Apr 11 @ 2:49 PM ET
Despite either one going back, they can change their minds at any time. If Boeser or Demko goes back to school and it wasnt what they expected, both can come out and play NHL/AHL right away. Guys leave college all the time to go to the CHL (Tambellini's son is one I can recall in the past few years), and they can easily walk away mid season to join a professional team.

Or the Canucks just start sending gifts and money to both of them to ruin their NCAA eligibility...

- WhiteLie


Muffin Baskets go a long way. Get on it Trev!
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Apr 11 @ 2:50 PM ET
Funny, if we get anything less than 3rd pick I'll be pissed.

And if it does happen... I'll blame Benning.

- bloatedmosquito

I will be quite happy to se Sergachev blasting pucks from the blue line for years and years
Codes1087
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 09.24.2014

Apr 11 @ 2:50 PM ET
Live from the table

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__L67FZEuhs
WhiteLie
Referee
Location: When youre 7 pages behind Dont bother catching up, you will never get that time back - Codes1087
Joined: 07.26.2010

Apr 11 @ 2:50 PM ET
Muffin Baskets go a long way. Get on it Trev!
- Codes1087



Oh hey, how did this roll of loonies end up in Boeser's hockey bag down here in North Dakota...
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Apr 11 @ 2:51 PM ET
You said you wanted to yell at me. What were you going to say?
- bloatedmosquito


I'm not entirely sure...perhaps it was related to your desire to keep Burrows. I don't want to yell at you anymore, too saddened by the Boeser news
belcherbd
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Nanaimo
Joined: 02.16.2007

Apr 11 @ 2:52 PM ET
haha thanks, my maths are almost as exceptional as me

58% we get one of 4, 5 or 6
I did double check my maths on the top 3, it is 42% we get those picks
I'm learning school

- neem55


Sorry man I don't think it's right.
http://www.pensionplanpup...inal-rules-and-odds-table

1st (11.5%)
2nd (11.435%)
3rd(11.259%)

4th(14.196%)
5th(37.809%)
6th(13.801%)
anavar
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.29.2008

Apr 11 @ 2:52 PM ET
No. when your calculating odds across events, you don't just add 11% together three times because you are calculating the odds of one of three events happening, which is 42% in this case.

Here's an article from Sportsnet that talks about odds of teams, since it's something we're talking about:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...rs-senators-jets-canucks/

- neem55

yeah, I get it but if you want to get technical - yours should have bounds on it depending on who picks the 1, then gets the 2nd, etc.

If a team outside the top 3 gets the 1st lotto - the odds of getting 2nd are different than if toronto wins the 1st lotto.

Either way- these are just both rough estimates until we know which event happens.
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Apr 11 @ 2:53 PM ET
Are you sure? this was posted the other day
11.5 - 1
11.435 - 2
11.259 - 3
14.196 - 4
37.809 - 5
13.801 - 6

- anavar


If you go to the simulator, what you'll notice is our odds change if Leafs (for example) win the first pick our odds jump to 14.4%. Because there is a 20% chance of that happening, the odds adjust. The maths are pretty complicated, but the guy who made this simulator deserves a (frank)ing medal
http://nhllotterysimulator.com/
Codes1087
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 09.24.2014

Apr 11 @ 2:54 PM ET

Oh hey, how did this roll of loonies end up in Boeser's hockey bag down here in North Dakota...

- WhiteLie


Boeser needs those Laundry Loonies!!
bloatedmosquito
Vancouver Canucks
Location: The Clit Whisperer
Joined: 10.22.2011

Apr 11 @ 2:54 PM ET
I will be quite happy to se Sergachev blasting pucks from the blue line for years and years
- VANTEL


I'm a big fan of high draft picks but it's the canucks development system that has to come through. I think they've done a good job up to this point (lots of examples of developed players playing meaningful NHL minutes) so let's hope they continue to do that.
bloatedmosquito
Vancouver Canucks
Location: The Clit Whisperer
Joined: 10.22.2011

Apr 11 @ 2:56 PM ET
I'm not entirely sure...perhaps it was related to your desire to keep Burrows. I don't want to yell at you anymore, too saddened by the Boeser news
- CanuckDon


It is hard being a fan of this club. We can agree on that brother.
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Apr 11 @ 2:56 PM ET
yeah, I get it but if you want to get technical - yours should have bounds on it depending on who picks the 1, then gets the 2nd, etc.

If a team outside the top 3 gets the 1st lotto - the odds of getting 2nd are different than if toronto wins the 1st lotto.

Either way- these are just both rough estimates until we know which event happens.

- anavar


Correcto. I just calculated the odds of winning one of three draws at 11.5%, which is 42%. No matter who wins the first pick, our odds of winning the 2nd go up.
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Apr 11 @ 3:00 PM ET
I'm not entirely sure...perhaps it was related to your desire to keep Burrows. I don't want to yell at you anymore, too saddened by the Boeser news
- CanuckDon


He's got to wait us out a fair bit to defect. Demko is the big worry this year.
CanuckDon
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Las Vegas
Joined: 08.05.2014

Apr 11 @ 3:01 PM ET
It is hard being a fan of this club. We can agree on that brother.
- bloatedmosquito


No hard feelings and yes
neem55
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 02.02.2012

Apr 11 @ 3:02 PM ET
What playoff matchup are people most excited for?
Codes1087
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 09.24.2014

Apr 11 @ 3:02 PM ET
What playoff matchup are people most excited for?
- neem55


I pick....

APR 30th 2016
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