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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrap: Flyers Muster 3-2 OT Win vs. Jets; Ghost Nominated for Masterton
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Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Mar 29 @ 4:02 PM ET
MacDonald-Ghost have a GF60 of 2.77. MDZ-Ghost were only 1.98 and Manning-Ghost were only 1.77 GF60. You can drop the pretense that Ghost has great on-ice offensive numbers with every partner.

http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

- Feanor


You just completely ignored everything I wrote about context to spin the numbers in your favor. In one ear and out the other....

To be fair, he does have a very high GF% right now relative to the team. His GF% is very high for the worst d man at combined shot suppression and generation. If you think process is more indicative of play and more predictive than past results -- which is at the very center of analytics (hello 2015-16 Ducks) -- than that is a lot of good puck luck in a small sample and due for regression. Your entire case is built around zero context, +/-, and TOI. Can we drop the pretense you're using "advanced" stats right now to defend AMac? Not everything he does is worthy of stone-throwing, he has redeemable features, he has had his better games of late, but you're making it seem like the stats show he's been rock solid...when they show anything but.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 29 @ 4:13 PM ET
You just completely ignored everything I wrote about context to spin the numbers in your favor. In one ear and out the other....

To be fair, he does have a very high GF% right now relative to the team. His GF% is very high for the worst d man at combined shot suppression and generation. If you think process is more indicative of play and more predictive than results -- which is at the very center of analytics (hello 2015-16 Ducks) -- than that is a lot of good puck luck in a small sample and due for regression. Your entire case is built around zero context, +/-, and TOI. Can we drop the pretense you're using "advanced" stats right now to defend AMac? Not everything he does is worthy of stone-throwing, he has redeemable features, he has had his better games of late, but you're making it seem like the stats show he's been rock solid...when they show anything but.

- Mononoke


I disagree, I want to stone him fairly often.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Mar 29 @ 4:19 PM ET
sorry but if you want me to believe that youre going to have to prove it with stats
- YuenglingJagr


Nick Cousins has the highest points/60 on the team right now. Last year #2 and #3 were White and Lecavalier. p/60 is a hugely misleading stat in small ice time samples.

Cousins also has a GF60 of 3.04. That's 3/10 of a goal higher than the next highest player. He also has the lowest GA60 at 1.40. Next lowest? 1.80. Could that be....and I'm just guessing here...that the games he has played have coincided with the team's best stretch? I don't want to lump him entirely in with AMac because, unlike him, his underlying numbers are actually decent and sustainable to a lesser degree. But the same idea applies. Cousins has passed the stat and eye test, even if he's been a bit sheltered, but there is no chance his numbers aren't massively inflated. Look at his PDO.

It would be like comparing Cousin's team leading GF% to Giroux's...who is the 5th worst on the team in GF%.

He sucks right?
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Mar 29 @ 4:20 PM ET
tbh I haven't really noticed amac at all out there
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Mar 29 @ 4:28 PM ET
Just saw a rumor that the Flyers will sign Emery to back up Mase until Neuvirth is fit, to allow Stolarz to go back to the Phantoms.

Nothing confirmed, but I believe it.

- Feanor

6 Games of Emery riding the bench. What's the issue?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 29 @ 4:36 PM ET
6 Games of Emery riding the bench. What's the issue?
- SuperSchennBros


If he's gonna plat at all, then why even sign him? If he is gonna play, then the issue is that he's on the ice.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Mar 29 @ 4:36 PM ET
6 Games of Emery riding the bench. What's the issue?
- SuperSchennBros


I think we are forgetting we play the Caps Wednesday night. Take Holtby out with Emery = easier 1st round victory.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Mar 29 @ 4:37 PM ET
6 Games of Emery riding the bench. What's the issue?
- SuperSchennBros

none have him attack holtby again
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Mar 29 @ 4:37 PM ET
none have him attack holtby again
- 2Real


2Real you're 2Leight
Baxter27
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2007

Mar 29 @ 4:38 PM ET
Nick Cousins has the highest points/60 on the team right now. Last year #2 and #3 were White and Lecavalier. p/60 is a hugely misleading stat in small ice time samples.

Cousins also has a GF60 of 3.04. That's 3/10 of a goal higher than the next player. He also has the lowest GA60 at 1.40. Next lowest? 1.80. Could that be....and I'm just guessing here...that the games he has played have coincided with the team's best stretch? I don't want to lump him entirely in with AMac because, unlike him, his underlying numbers are actually decent and sustainable to a lesser degree. But the same idea applies. Cousins has passed the stat and eye test, even if he's been a bit sheltered, but there is no chance his numbers aren't massively inflated.

It would be like comparing Cousin's team leading GF% to Giroux's...who is the 5th worst on the team in GF%.

He sucks right?

- Mononoke


I'm not an advanced stats guy but I'm curious if there is a Scoring chances for and against stat? We all know Macdonald's style of play will never appear at the top of a Corsi chart.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 29 @ 4:38 PM ET
I think we are forgetting we play the Caps Wednesday night. Take Holtby out with Emery = easier 1st round victory.
- arichardson22


We need a nice little Detroit/Colorado style brawl to get things off on the right foot.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Mar 29 @ 4:38 PM ET
6 Games of Emery riding the bench. What's the issue?
- SuperSchennBros


If all they want is a bench warmer, Stolarz is qualified.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Mar 29 @ 4:39 PM ET
If he's gonna plat at all, then why even sign him? If he is gonna play, then the issue is that he's on the ice.
- jmatchett383

I think this is undervaluing any black up. Mason has played a string of games in a row. It is possible he might feel fatigue or see a possible blow out. This is where you want an experienced back up to close the game.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 29 @ 4:40 PM ET
I'm not an advanced stats guy but I'm curious if there is a Scoring chances for and against stat? We all know Macdonald's style of play will never appear at the top of a Corsi chart.
- Baxter27


Sadly, there is. Because, you know, "scoring chance" is such a well defined term, since there is no specific criteria to define a "scoring chance" without using circular logic (i.e. a scoring chance is a play in which you have a good chance to score). There's also a "high percentage scoring chance" stat, too.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Mar 29 @ 4:40 PM ET
I think this is undervaluing any black up. Mason has played a string of games in a row. It is possible he might feel fatigue or see a possible blow out. This is where you want an experienced back up to close the game.
- SuperSchennBros


Racist !
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Mar 29 @ 4:41 PM ET
2Real you're 2Leight
- arichardson22

i'm never too late i just legitimized your idea
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 29 @ 4:42 PM ET
I think this is undervaluing any black up. Mason has played a string of games in a row. It is possible he might feel fatigue or see a possible blow out. This is where you want an experienced back up to close the game.
- SuperSchennBros


Experience is great and all, but guys like Michael Leighton are also experienced. Experience counts for nothing if you hip prohibits you from playing well. I'd rather have Stolarz's skill and athleticism if it comes to that. I think Mason will start the rest of the season, barring injury.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Mar 29 @ 4:42 PM ET
I think this is undervaluing any black up. Mason has played a string of games in a row. It is possible he might feel fatigue or see a possible blow out. This is where you want an experienced back up to close the game.
- SuperSchennBros


put it there bro
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Mar 29 @ 4:42 PM ET
If all they want is a bench warmer, Stolarz is qualified.
- Scoob

Hakstol I'm sure has his own reasons why Stolarz hasn't started already. I would allow Mason to close out the season but in a situation where Mason gets yanked, should Stolarz see his first NHL action behind a deflated team?
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Mar 29 @ 4:44 PM ET
Experience is great and all, but guys like Michael Leighton are also experienced. Experience counts for nothing if you hip prohibits you from playing well. I'd rather have Stolarz's skill and athleticism if it comes to that. I think Mason will start the rest of the season, barring injury.
- jmatchett383

I might be wrong but I believe Laughton was a journeyman who split time between the minors and riding an NHL bench before 2010.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Mar 29 @ 4:49 PM ET
Nick Cousins has the highest points/60 on the team right now. Last year #2 and #3 were White and Lecavalier. p/60 is a hugely misleading stat in small ice time samples.

Cousins also has a GF60 of 3.04. That's 3/10 of a goal higher than the next highest player. He also has the lowest GA60 at 1.40. Next lowest? 1.80. Could that be....and I'm just guessing here...that the games he has played have coincided with the team's best stretch? I don't want to lump him entirely in with AMac because, unlike him, his underlying numbers are actually decent and sustainable to a lesser degree. But the same idea applies. Cousins has passed the stat and eye test, even if he's been a bit sheltered, but there is no chance his numbers aren't massively inflated.

It would be like comparing Cousin's team leading GF% to Giroux's...who is the 5th worst on the team in GF%.

He sucks right?

- Mononoke


Not sure you backread all the way but I essentially went through the same thing....Really we are the same person on two accounts though so thats obvious
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Mar 29 @ 4:50 PM ET
Hakstol I'm sure has his own reasons why Stolarz hasn't started already.
- SuperSchennBros


I agree. And frankly, unlike others here, I don't question his personnel choices.

I would allow Mason to close out the season but in a situation where Mason gets yanked, should Stolarz see his first NHL action behind a deflated team?


Why not? Is he going to make the situation worse by going in?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Mar 29 @ 4:52 PM ET
I might be wrong but I believe Laughton was a journeyman who split time between the minors and riding an NHL bench before 2010.
- SuperSchennBros


Yes, he was (Leighton, not Laughton). And that was my point that lots of goalies have "experience" but it doesn't mean they'd perform well if inserted into a playoff race tomorrow. I'll take skill and athleticism over experience every day.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Mar 29 @ 4:55 PM ET
Sadly, there is. Because, you know, "scoring chance" is such a well defined term, since there is no specific criteria to define a "scoring chance" without using circular logic (i.e. a scoring chance is a play in which you have a good chance to score). There's also a "high percentage scoring chance" stat, too.
- jmatchett383


A scoring chance is any shot attempt within a certain area of the ice actually. Whatever you think its merits are, it does have a clear definition.

Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Mar 29 @ 4:57 PM ET
A scoring chance is any shot attempt within a certain area of the ice actually. Whatever you think its merits are, it does have a clear definition.


- Mononoke


Sure, there is a defined geographic area, but it's still a very subjective measure.
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