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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrapup: Flyers Earn Gutsy 3-2 win in CHI, Move into Wildcard Spot
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Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Mar 17 @ 5:06 PM ET
Im not sure anything is 100% about the draft at this time
- flyhoc


thanks
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 17 @ 5:07 PM ET
Feanor, here's some good context for AMac's stats:

--MDZ, when on the ice, has a score adjusted CorsiFor% of 50.59 %

--AMac, when on the ice, has a score adjusted CorsiFor% of 50.49 %


Sounds like AMac is doing very well and has really stepped up in MDZ's absence. EXCEPT...the team's Corsi % when MDZ is off the ice is 47.36%. When AMac is off the ice, the team's Corsi % is a whopping 56.76%. It just shows the environment in which MDZ played vs. AMac. Two different teams. And AMac is still dragging down this new one, even if he's a plus possession player.

- Mononoke


You're ignoring the fact that MacDonald has played with Ghost almost exclusively, while MDZ mainly played with Gudas. Which is why I originally brought up their relative stats with Ghost.

MDZ with Gudas = 54.8 CF%, without Gudas = 48 CF%.

http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

Gudas is a much better possession dman than Ghost this season.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Mar 17 @ 5:17 PM ET
The Flyers are 12-5-4 since MJL's ban took effect on 2/2, the night the hung a 6 spot on NSH
- Giroux_Is_God


.666 P%
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Mar 17 @ 5:19 PM ET
.666 P%
- YuenglingJagr

the numbers of the devil
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Mar 17 @ 5:24 PM ET
the numbers of the devil
- 2Real


technically it rounds up to .667
flyhoc
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 02.14.2009

Mar 17 @ 5:26 PM ET
technically it rounds up to .667
- YuenglingJagr


I think REAL % is more like .595, one win was in OT vs Toronto so a 3 point total available game, the 4 OT losses were 3 point games.... so they really have 28 points out of an available 47......stupid 3 point games skew all the numbers
flyhoc
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 02.14.2009

Mar 17 @ 5:27 PM ET
I think REAL % is more like .595, one win was in OT vs Toronto so a 3 point total available game, the 4 OT losses were 3 point games.... so they really have 28 points out of an available 47......stupid 3 point games skew all the numbers
- flyhoc


Hopefully that didnt sound too MJL ish
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Mar 17 @ 5:35 PM ET
You're ignoring the fact that MacDonald has played with Ghost almost exclusively, while MDZ mainly played with Gudas. Which is why I originally brought up their relative stats with Ghost.

MDZ with Gudas = 54.8 CF%, without Gudas = 48 CF%.

http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

Gudas is a much better possession dman than Ghost this season.

- Feanor


I think Ghost is a better possession d man than his stats indicate. He's spent over half the season with Manning and AMac. The way he plays the game tells me he can be a good possession defenseman in the future at the least. Even so, he's been around break even poss. wise -- he was a slightly positive relative player before AMac joined. And yes, Gudas' raw stats are excellent apart from MDZ (usage difference unbeknown), but they've really climbed during this month+ stretch. Again, MDZ completely missed this stat inflating stretch. That's why I said comparing raw numbers is murky. So I looked at Corsi when on ice vs off ice to make the playing field more equal.

I'm not sure what overall point you're trying to make, if you could clarify. My point was that you need to be careful citing AMac's raw Corsi% without mentioning how he's doing relative to the team. Now, if you're arguing that Ghost is bringing down AMac's stats, I'm not sure I buy that one. Ghost, before AMac touched the ice, was break even-slight positive. AMac comes in and puts up, with Ghost, the worst relative numbers on the team during the team's best stretch of the season. It's a small sample granted, but the large sample that is his career indicates it's not so unexpected. Ghost was putting up break even relative numbers even during the worst stretch of the Flyers's possession season. To me, at least, the weak(er) possession link on that pairing is clear.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Mar 17 @ 5:44 PM ET
1 player per expansion team
- Just5


That's what I saw last night, was that confirmed?
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Mar 17 @ 5:57 PM ET
I think REAL % is more like .595, one win was in OT vs Toronto so a 3 point total available game, the 4 OT losses were 3 point games.... so they really have 28 points out of an available 47......stupid 3 point games skew all the numbers
- flyhoc


What?
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Mar 17 @ 6:02 PM ET
No one mentioned this last night, but did anyone see after a whistle Kane was hanging around Neuvy, and Coots just walks up and shoves him really hard. Then Toews comes over and starts going at it with Coots. I thought that was hilarious. Reminded me of this:

five4fighting10
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Cherry Hill, NJ
Joined: 02.22.2008

Mar 17 @ 6:07 PM ET
That's what I saw last night, was that confirmed?
- ob18

One thing I don't understand that I read on BSH earlier was the possibility of having to waste 1 of the protected slots on someone like Umberger because of his NMC. I understand if they decide to count players with NMC as protected players, but it makes no sense to count players with NMC that expire that offseason as protected players. If the expansion draft occurs in June before the amateur draft and before FA, why on earth should a player who's due to become an UFA in a week's time be forced to be protected? Dumb, dumb, dumb if that option somehow comes to fruition.
WhirlingDervish
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "Make The Flyers Great Again", PA
Joined: 02.01.2016

Mar 17 @ 6:08 PM ET
Can only protect one goalie.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/st...ial-expansion-draft-rules

- Scoob


If you go down the page and read the article on Sean Avery, it's really interesting.
aightwebang17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Typical Montreal, PA
Joined: 07.10.2008

Mar 17 @ 6:09 PM ET
No one mentioned this last night, but did anyone see after a whistle Kane was hanging around Neuvy, and Coots just walks up and shoves him really hard. Then Toews comes over and starts going at it with Coots. I thought that was hilarious. Reminded me of this:


- Mononoke

thought the same thing
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Mar 17 @ 6:10 PM ET
thought the same thing
- aightwebang17


where's the gif
flyhoc
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 02.14.2009

Mar 17 @ 6:14 PM ET
What?
- YuenglingJagr


Sorry, kind of being a smart ass. The NHL point system is out of whack because of the 3 point games. It is hard to say what a teams point % really is anymore.
All I did was add 5 additional available points available as a result of those 3 point games.

Last weekend for example, people say the Flyers got 3 out of 4 points on their Florida trip which would be .75, however they really got 3 points out of 5 available so .60 in reality. They won 2 out of 2 points in TBay, then they got 1 point vs Florida while Florida got 2 points, so a 3 point total game

I dont understand how a league can have a different point value available per game, 2 or 3
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Mar 17 @ 6:16 PM ET
where's the gif
- -davies-


https://mobile.twitter.co...10290967673315332/video/1

Tail end of it. Missed him decking Kane and Toews skating over though. Coots does this stuff actually quite a lot -- he's that quiet kid who doesn't say much and is mostly polite but hides a big temper.
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Mar 17 @ 6:19 PM ET
https://mobile.twitter.com/SonsofPenn/status/710290967673315332/video/1

Tail end of it. Missed him decking Kane and Toews skating over though. Coots does this stuff actually quite a lot -- he's that quiet kid who doesn't say much and is mostly polite but hides a big temper.

- Mononoke


my boy
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Mar 17 @ 6:32 PM ET
Comcast ran game 1 of the flyers pens 2012 series. Crazy how much better the flyers breakouts are now. Everything in our end had to go up the boards. Everything up the boards or a super long stretch pass in the middle. Par for the course for most teams back then I guess. Got really aggravated watching it
funmaster18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.
Joined: 03.15.2009

Mar 17 @ 6:40 PM ET
$74M cap next season, at the most:

http://www.tsn.ca/final-s...nds-of-the-nhlpa-1.454955

- Tomahawk


Better than the cap going down, which I recall some were worried about
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Mar 17 @ 6:43 PM ET
Comcast ran game 1 of the flyers pens 2012 series. Crazy how much better the flyers breakouts are now. Everything in our end had to go up the boards. Everything up the boards or a super long stretch pass in the middle. Par for the course for most teams back then I guess. Got really aggravated watching it
- Just5


Hakstol emphasizes controlled exits and entries. Really it's not like the defense group this year is better than that group. Even last year under Chief they chipped out a ton. And while Schultz still does it a lot, the corps as a whole emphasizes controlled exits with their center breakout. It's really what must be done to succeed in today's game. Now just imagine when the d prospects come up. Breakouts will be off the charts with Provy or Sanheim or Ghost skating it up at will.

I love Hakstol's system. I think it has the makings of a Cup style game.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 17 @ 6:45 PM ET
I think Ghost is a better possession d man than his stats indicate. He's spent over half the season with Manning and AMac. The way he plays the game tells me he can be a good possession defenseman in the future at the least. Even so, he's been around break even poss. wise -- he was a slightly positive relative player before AMac joined. And yes, Gudas' raw stats are excellent apart from MDZ (usage difference unbeknown), but they've really climbed during this month+ stretch. Again, MDZ completely missed this stat inflating stretch.
- Mononoke


MDZ played 467 minutes with Gudas and they had 54.8 CF% despite getting 45.9% OZ starts and being used against other teams top lines. That large stretch is the only reason MDZ finished his season with above break even possession numbers.

Without Gudas, MDZ was a 48 CF% dman starting in the OZ 49.8% of the time. A mediocre possession defenseman in other words.

What I'm saying is not complicated or controversial. Apart from Medvedev, the relative Corsi of dmen not playing with Gudas this season have been significantly inferior. We saw that clearly when Hakstol separated MDZ and Gudas, and the MDZ-Ghost pairing could only manage 48.2 CF% together. This was when AMac was in the minors so he had nothing to do with their unimpressive possession numbers as a pairing.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Mar 17 @ 6:45 PM ET
am i laught in learning that Raffl's nickname is Copter?

heard Giroux say this in a recent interview and assumed he was talking about Raff
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Mar 17 @ 6:46 PM ET
am i laught in learning that Raffl's nickname is Copter?

heard Giroux say this in a recent interview and assumed he was talking about Raff

- Crimsoninja


yes
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Mar 17 @ 6:51 PM ET
yes
- ob18

a heads up would be nice in the future
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