I'm guessing I would hate the guy a lot less if he could just stop with that blank stare on the bench after yet another one of his horrific gaffes.






- Atomic Wedgie

I love Jake Gardiner

(frank) all of you

Right, but the #1 Dman's ice time compared to the 3-4 D man's ice time is significantly higher, which leads to playing more shifts against the oppositions top lines.

Doughty plays almost 7 min more than Gardiner. So let's say that 2-3 of those minutes a game are against a top line. Multiply that over even just 10 games. That's a full games worth of shifts for Doughty going against the Perry/Getz type of lines
- sbroads24

Yeah, I don't think Gardiner could do what Doughty does. But Gardiner is a lot better than he gets credit for too. I also question whether it is wise to play dmen that many minutes. Karlsson and Suter have more minutes and similar deployment and are also performing at the same level or better than Doughty. So I can certainly make the argument that Doughty has peers.

"But in exactly 100% of the previous instances of this, the people using the data turned out to be right. "

that is probably not entirely true

"But in exactly 100% of the previous instances of this, the people using the data turned out to be right. "

that is probably not entirely true
- Mordecai

I can't think of one situation where data and math didn't help us to better understand the world or one of the activities we do in it.

I can't think of one situation where data and math didn't help us to better understand the world or one of the activities we do in it.
- James_Tanner

Double slit experiment can't be explained by any known universal characteristics. It's essentially a disconnect between cause and effect.

Double slit experiment can't be explained by any known universal characteristics. It's essentially a disconnect between cause and effect.
- jfkst1

Quantum mechanics just confuse me, so I won't even try. I got about two seconds into the wikipedia article and knew I was in over my head. But I do know this: if you have to get into physics of the actual universe to find a good example, it was probably a decent point!!

the james blog has reached it's pinnacle. Saying gardiner is on par, or better than doughty. At first i thought he was just doing these awful articles for hits, but now I think he actually believes the garbage he spews

Up next week
"kadri and crosby, closer than you think"
- Bigern4MVP

HAHA!! I don't think he ever said that Gardiner is better than Doughty. I think he is saying it's closer than most people might think (whether you believe it or not).
I highly doubt that James would trade select Gardiner for his team over Doughty if given the chance.

At minimum, which I think he did successfully, is the get people to understand that Gardiner is better then most people give him credit for......

Quantum mechanics just confuse me, so I won't even try. I got about two seconds into the wikipedia article and knew I was in over my head. But I do know this: if you have to get into physics of the actual universe to find a good example, it was probably a decent point!!
- James_Tanner

Quantum mechanics confuses everyone- even geniuses. The point being, there are many things we don't know. Especially related to hockey analytics. Which is something you hear from the conference presenters if you attend.

This year alone you should look at the difference in QOC between Rielly and Gardiner.

It tells the whole story.


Gardiner 5v5 against Ovie...I can't find any ice time, same goes for Benn / Seguin /Tavares I could go on with most of the other teams top lines/scorers /shot takers

Rielly 5v5 against Ovie 24 mins

Fact, Ovie best player in the world and gets the most shots

Fact - playing against these types of players would certainly knock your stats down a few notches


I read James that QOC doesn't matter but QOC of teammates makes a difference??? ( trying not to laugh )


QOC is the most important part you are missing, again prime example is above with Rielly and Gardiner, hopefully some day they find the correct data until then....Gard's is ok and improving ( better systems ) but until he gets stronger in his own end ( and physically ) he is not an elite D IMO.

Gardiner is really underrated! But Doughty is the GOAT

HAHA!! I don't think he ever said that Gardiner is better than Doughty. I think he is saying it's closer than most people might think (whether you believe it or not).
I highly doubt that James would trade select Gardiner for his team over Doughty if given the chance.

At minimum, which I think he did successfully, is the get people to understand that Gardiner is better then most people give him credit for......
- Cooshie

Or some ignore other data that makes you realize why " an avg D " has similiar stats to a stud D.

Or some ignore other data that makes you realize why " an avg D " has similiar stats to a stud D.


- Garnie

Gardiner + Percy for Doughty?

I love Jake Gardiner

(frank) all of you
- twiztedmike

Gardiner + Percy for Doughty?


- Cooshie

I'll even throw in Lupul and PAP

"But in exactly 100% of the previous instances of this, the people using the data turned out to be right. "

that is probably not entirely true
- Mordecai

29.745% of all stats are made up.

HAHA!! I don't think he ever said that Gardiner is better than Doughty. I think he is saying it's closer than most people might think (whether you believe it or not).
I highly doubt that James would trade select Gardiner for his team over Doughty if given the chance.

At minimum, which I think he did successfully, is the get people to understand that Gardiner is better then most people give him credit for......
- Cooshie

Thats all I was trying to do. That and to get people to question how they "know" things.

Of course Doughty is better, but people actually think I am crazy when I say Gardiner is one of the best in the league. Which, he is. At worst, top 20.

I frequently have these arguments with fans of a different defenseman. I'm in the "eyeball" camp that argues that the advanced stats are misleading in his case, however, so I don't agree with Tanner that that's necessarily a bad way to judge a player. Sometimes, you have to. Take Dustin Brown, for example. He has the 3rd-best Corsi in the league, yet we all know from watching him that he's a pretty mediocre player nowadays and actually has negative value. In that case, using your eyes gives you a far better picture of his quality as a player than the advanced stats do.

I do really agree with Tanner on the other half his point, though. Far more often than not, fans will act like their argument is an unchallengeable truth (because advanced stats!) and that I'm obviously ignorant to have an opinion that's different from theirs. Fans have a tendency to do that, in my experience. They believe that they know their team better than anyone else, which leads them to believe that their opinions are automatically right. When outsiders offer different opinions, instead of valuing them because they come from outsiders who are likely not as biased, they treat them as though they're ignorant. As you said, Tanner, that's the worst form of argument (if you can call it that at all).

I invite anyone to go through the Warrior and HERO charts on that site and conclude RNH is clearly "much better" than Johansen. Johansen has a better HERO chart which tracks the last three seasons and comparable Warrior charts over the same time.
- jfkst1

I brought this up when he made that article, as well as when he said Kadri was better than Duchene. But, he's just going to keep side stepping your point.

Thats all I was trying to do. That and to get people to question how they "know" things.

Of course Doughty is better, but people actually thinfk I am crazy when I say Gardiner is one of the best in the league. Which, he is. At worst, top 20.
- James_Tanner

Top 20 based on Corsi.

I brought this up when he made that article, as well as when he said Kadri was better than Duchene. But, he's just going to keep side stepping your point.
- Blackstrom2

That's because he 100% thinks playing against Tanner Glass is the same as playing against Ovie. Not just Tanner I guess, but also these "math" guys.

I brought this up when he made that article, as well as when he said Kadri was better than Duchene. But, he's just going to keep side stepping your point.
- Blackstrom2

Yeah, and that inconsistency is what annoys me about these arguments. It also undermines those who truly apply hockey analytics objectively.

That is your presumption.

I do not agree.

Unlike baseball, where each event can be calculated and statistically placed in a silo due to the nature of how each event occurs (pitch, contact, etc...), hockey is a fluid game that is harder to adequately place an event in a specific silo.

Hockey will never ever be able to have a reliability with advanced stats like baseball, and to use the stats in a comparative manner to define value of a player, is just ludicrous.

But have at it.

I happen to think you are wrong.
- Mashadar

This is exactly it. Advanced hockey stats are a fancy skyscraper built on some awfully shaky ground. Trusting the accurate totals of shots, attempted shots, zone time, etc. for each and every player when they are on the ice requires quite a leap of faith. How can or why would one granulate such inherently unreliable information into such remarkable detail and then take the results as gospel?

Advanced baseball stats are built on bases, which are rock-solid, and balls and strikes, which, despite some ump-based subjectivity, are rigorously and incontrovertibly recorded.

In other words, advanced hockey stats are a useful tool, but Brad Pitt won't be playing Corsi in a movie.

This is exactly it. Advanced hockey stats are a fancy skyscraper built on some awfully shaky ground. Trusting the accurate totals of shots, attempted shots, zone time, etc. for each and every player when they are on the ice requires quite a leap of faith. How can or why would one granulate such inherently unreliable information into such remarkable detail and then take the results as gospel?

Advanced baseball stats are built on bases, which are rock-solid, and balls and strikes, which, despite some ump-based subjectivity, are rigorously and incontrovertibly recorded.

In other words, advanced hockey stats are a useful tool, but Brad Pitt won't be playing Corsi in a movie.
- Snowblind

Just curious of what hamonics advanced metrics are like?
I'd assume so much of what he brings and does for the isles is beyond simple quantification

Interesting to see how he stacks up numerically

And you don't even have to buy into it. Just stop saying that the people who are looking at data to make decisions are the crazy ones. In the history of the entire world, whenever data driven analysis starts to contradict established "experts" there is a backlash and there are people who write them off as charlatans. But in exactly 100% of the previous instances of this, the people using the data turned out to be right.
- Tanner

Yes, like when the scientists used data to tell my grandparents they shouldn't eat eggs or their cholesterol levels would increase. Or when they told us to take medication to suppress our cholesterol levels. They were right....until they were wrong.

The condescending tone and the aggressive nature of these dismissals are as bizarre as they are ironic. You cannot dismiss the value of collecting data and then finding strong and provable correlations between certain statistics and winning. It is as wrong as saying 2+2 is 145. It is not up for debate! That is an incorrect approach to the point where it devalues what other opinions you hold.
- Tanner

Correlation does not imply causation: Look that one up in your logic text.

Just curious of what hamonics advanced metrics are like?
I'd assume so much of what he brings and does for the isles is beyond simple quantification

Interesting to see how he stacks up numerically
- HB77

I'd guess that the Isles' good defensemen (Hamonic, Leddy, Boychuk) will have their metrics dampened because they play against better players and the Isles bad defensemen (Zidlicky, Strait) will be wildly inflated because not only do they not play against the other team's best, but the also seem to get a lot of ice time with Tavares (so much so that it has to be by design).