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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Gardiner, Doughty and the Case of the Advanced Stats Bandit
Author Message
the_eye
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.22.2012

Feb 4 @ 2:19 PM ET
The Leafs of the past 3 seasons must be the unluckiest team in the history of hockey.

They have the equivalent of Drew Doughty on defense and the equivalent of Steven Stamkos as a 1st/2nd line center in Kadri, and yet somehow their won-loss record in this era is in the bottom 5 of the league. Bummer.

- Snowblind

Sure, go ahead and point this unrelated crap out....
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Feb 4 @ 2:20 PM ET
By dumb things, I would imagine you mean giveaways? Because ultimately that is what dumb things tend to lead to, in which case turn into goals.
Just an FYI, Doughty has 65 compared to Gardiner's 49.

I am not defending Gardiner as a a better hockey player - just speaking directly to your comment about "dumb things".

- Cooshie

Not necessarily. Giveaways are a bad statistic. Usually the players that play the most, and handle the puck the most, will have more.

Doughty plays close to 7 more minutes a game than Gardiner. He handles the puck a lot more.

HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Feb 4 @ 2:21 PM ET
Hey hb77 have to give you credit for being dead on about the Habs. Early in the season when they were being anointed by the media and fan base you thought they were grossly overrated and would come crashing back to earth. Props to you man.
- shack67

Thx bruh!

I'm sure I wasnt alone tho. And admittedly, I'm A Habs hater as Two of my best friends are diehard habs fans and they're so irrational and passionate. I hate it!

I just felt that despite their unconscious start, no way that roster is a true contender even with price. A playoff team yes. elite? No
Best goalie in the world, one elite defender, and a true sniper. Beyond that complimentary and overrated pieces.

I kept reading stats and reasons why it wasn't just price, but all of them always came back to what price does for that team beyond just stopping pucks.
Mashadar
Location: Let the creamy goaltending season begin!
Joined: 08.31.2014

Feb 4 @ 2:22 PM ET
Not necessarily. Giveaways are a bad statistic. Usually the players that play the most, and handle the puck the most, will have more.

Doughty plays close to 7 more minutes a game than Gardiner. He handles the puck a lot more.

- sbroads24


Look at things like coverage (lost coverage, not boxing out players, not changing coverage with other players on the ice... etc...).

Those are things that impact a game significantly, but are not accounted for directly (and mildly, indirectly).
TheMaritimer
Joined: 11.28.2015

Feb 4 @ 2:23 PM ET
Don't be a jerk and I will happily converse with you. Right or wrong, I always am willing to discuss what I write. You cannot seem to get over yourself long enough to discuss what you are so certain is correct.
- James_Tanner


Pot, meet kettle.

You took great offense to me calling you a simpleton, meaning foolish, one time. I maintain it was completely justified, as you had claimed the facts and data regarding zone starts and QoC was comparable to the body of research behind global warming. As insults go, it was pretty tame.

I'm sorry you found the pejorative so insulting, but I also find it highly ironic considering that you've said worse things to other people on these very message boards before (which I pointed out with your own quotes) and the fact that you've said things like this before, which appears to be completely at odds with reality:

I don't care if I am criticized. I expect people to use some facts to back up their points if they want to be taken seriously and I will change my mind when confronted with new information. Again, I've proved this over and over.
- James_Tanner


DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Feb 4 @ 2:24 PM ET
Not necessarily. Giveaways are a bad statistic. Usually the players that play the most, and handle the puck the most, will have more.

Doughty plays close to 7 more minutes a game than Gardiner. He handles the puck a lot more.

- sbroads24


also Doughty has played 4 more games than him, w
Stu17
Los Angeles Kings
Location: If its Brown flush it down!, CA
Joined: 10.15.2013

Feb 4 @ 2:25 PM ET
By dumb things, I would imagine you mean giveaways? Because ultimately that is what dumb things tend to lead to, in which case turn into goals.
Just an FYI, Doughty has 65 compared to Gardiner's 49.

I am not defending Gardiner as a a better hockey player - just speaking directly to your comment about "dumb things".

- Cooshie

at which point you need to go back to the original post which stated
One literally plays half of the game, in all situations, and consistently plays against the top lines

which might explain some of the inflated turnover numbers. Don't get me wrong, DD does make some bonehead plays every now and then but it's usually, and I'd guess here, about .25/per 60TOI, roughly 1 every 4 games the Kings play...
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Feb 4 @ 2:27 PM ET
at which point you need to go back to the original post which stated
which might explain some of the inflated turnover numbers. Don't get me wrong, DD does make some bonehead plays every now and then but it's usually, and I'd guess here, about .25/per 60TOI, roughly 1 every 4 games the Kings play...

- Stu17

I can't imagine NOT turning the puck over from time to time when you're facing getzlaf, hall, zetterberg, pavelski etc etc every single night

Do we already have numbers on Gardiner qoc?


A little homer throw in for hall there..... But in reality, doughty owns him every time I watch us play the Kings.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Feb 4 @ 2:30 PM ET
I can't imagine NOT turning the puck over from time to time when you're facing getzlaf, hall, zetterberg, pavelski etc etc every single night

Do we already have numbers on Gardiner qoc?


A little homer throw in for hall there..... But in reality, doughty owns him every time we play the Kings.

- HB77


sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Feb 4 @ 2:31 PM ET
at which point you need to go back to the original post which stated
which might explain some of the inflated turnover numbers. Don't get me wrong, DD does make some bonehead plays every now and then but it's usually, and I'd guess here, about .25/per 60TOI, roughly 1 every 4 games the Kings play...

- Stu17

And this is where I disagree that Quality of comp. doesn't matter.

Doughty is matched up against a #1 line every single game, in all situations.

Gardiner simply is not. Until he does, it's not a fair comparison
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Feb 4 @ 2:33 PM ET

- DDM-Coga




SolidGoldBricks
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Robidas Island, MI
Joined: 10.30.2013

Feb 4 @ 2:34 PM ET
And this is where I disagree that Quality of comp. doesn't matter.

Doughty is matched up against a #1 line every single game, in all situations.

Gardiner simply is not. Until he does, it's not a fair comparison

- sbroads24


QoC is such a tricky stat to get right, too. It's hard to apply to other stats etc.
Cooshie
Joined: 01.09.2013

Feb 4 @ 2:34 PM ET
at which point you need to go back to the original post which stated
which might explain some of the inflated turnover numbers. Don't get me wrong, DD does make some bonehead plays every now and then but it's usually, and I'd guess here, about .25/per 60TOI, roughly 1 every 4 games the Kings play...

- Stu17


Yeah, I agree for sure!!
Again, I am not saying that Gardiner is in the same category as Doughty.
Doughty plays roughly 40% more than Gardiner and is going to be prone to more turnovers.

My point is that if you look watch your teams all year long you will see even the elite dmen on your team (if you have one) make terrible decisions and turnovers. Happens to them all. Some more than others.
Gardiners elite skating skills helps him correct some of those turnovers.

Stu17
Los Angeles Kings
Location: If its Brown flush it down!, CA
Joined: 10.15.2013

Feb 4 @ 2:35 PM ET
But in reality, doughty owns him every time I watch us play the Kings.
- HB77

Do they have a history? It seems Doughty has a special hard spot for Hall when they're playing each other. I've seen Hall go out of his way to finish his checks on Drew and I can recall Drew blowing him up along the boards a few times too...
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Feb 4 @ 2:35 PM ET
By dumb things, I would imagine you mean giveaways? Because ultimately that is what dumb things tend to lead to, in which case turn into goals.
Just an FYI, Doughty has 65 compared to Gardiner's 49.


I am not defending Gardiner as a a better hockey player - just speaking directly to your comment about "dumb things".

- Cooshie

Gardiner's signature move is to hang onto the puck too long, run out of options, and then give a teammate a pass where his teammate has no options.

Jake doesn't give the puck away to the opposition, but he sure as hell is responsible for it.
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Feb 4 @ 2:36 PM ET
QoC is such a tricky stat to get right, too. It's hard to apply to other stats etc.
- SolidGoldBricks

Why is that?
Beyond the fluidity and fast changes of course...


Serious question. I'm fairly ignorant to much of this ..
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Feb 4 @ 2:37 PM ET


Wheres my Tyson Barrie Elite Blog Tanner...huh, give it to me
SolidGoldBricks
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Robidas Island, MI
Joined: 10.30.2013

Feb 4 @ 2:38 PM ET
Why is that?
Beyond the fluidity and fast changes of course...


Serious question. I'm fairly ignorant to much of this ..

- HB77


I just mean it's hard to apply to other stats numerically. You can look at the two alongside eachother and make conclusions based on that, but you can't add it in to some WAR-like formula to influence the other numbers.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Feb 4 @ 2:39 PM ET
And this is where I disagree that Quality of comp. doesn't matter.

Doughty is matched up against a #1 line every single game, in all situations.

Gardiner simply is not. Until he does, it's not a fair comparison

- sbroads24


QoC matters. But you can go and look at the differences yourself and see that Rielly has HARDER deployment than Doughty and Phaneuf and Gardiner are not far from Doughty's usage. Usually differences among top 4 dman are not all that significant. The difference usually gets dramatic when comparing 5/6/7D to 1/2D.
http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html
HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Feb 4 @ 2:39 PM ET
Do they have a history? It seems Doughty has a special hard spot for Hall when they're playing each other. I've seen Hall go out of his way to finish his checks on Drew and I can recall Drew blowing him up along the boards a few times too...
- Stu17

I'd wondered this too cause of exactly what you've stated.
He seems to really go out of his way to make life sh1tty for hall. The first time they faced each other was maybe the biggest hit I've ever seen hall take. And he's taken a lot of big ones.
I suppose he's given that assignment in stopping hall = stopping oilers. But yeah, he seeks him out

Not sure about prior history in juniors
Cooshie
Joined: 01.09.2013

Feb 4 @ 2:42 PM ET
Gardiner's signature move is to hang onto the puck too long, run out of options, and then give a teammate a pass where his teammate has no options.

Jake doesn't give the puck away to the opposition, but he sure as hell is responsible for it.

- Atomic Wedgie


This is true too...
But he has been better this year.

A couple games back when he blew a flat tire carrying puck out (with not a player around him) in front of his own net leading to breakaway shot - that was classic!!
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Feb 4 @ 2:47 PM ET
QoC matters. But you can go and look at the differences yourself and see that Rielly has HARDER deployment than Doughty and Phaneuf and Gardiner are not far from Doughty's usage. Usually differences among top 4 dman are not all that significant. The difference usually gets dramatic when comparing 5/6/7D to 1/2D.
http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html

- jfkst1

Right, but the #1 Dman's ice time compared to the 3-4 D man's ice time is significantly higher, which leads to playing more shifts against the oppositions top lines.

Doughty plays almost 7 min more than Gardiner. So let's say that 2-3 of those minutes a game are against a top line. Multiply that over even just 10 games. That's a full games worth of shifts for Doughty going against the Perry/Getz type of lines
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Feb 4 @ 2:53 PM ET
This is true too...
But he has been better this year.

A couple games back when he blew a flat tire carrying puck out (with not a player around him) in front of his own net leading to breakaway shot - that was classic!!

- Cooshie

I'm guessing I would hate the guy a lot less if he could just stop with that blank stare on the bench after yet another one of his horrific gaffes.





Bigern4MVP
Calgary Flames
Location: ON
Joined: 05.08.2014

Feb 4 @ 2:56 PM ET
the james blog has reached it's pinnacle. Saying gardiner is on par, or better than doughty. At first i thought he was just doing these awful articles for hits, but now I think he actually believes the garbage he spews

Up next week
"kadri and crosby, closer than you think"
Bigern4MVP
Calgary Flames
Location: ON
Joined: 05.08.2014

Feb 4 @ 2:58 PM ET
hey james you realize doughty has a better HERO chart than the god himself OEL right?
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