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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Comparing Marc-Andre Fleury's Red Hot Start To Year's Past
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Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Nov 3 @ 5:51 PM ET
And yes... I am very aware that in the more shots = more goals model in my post on the previous page, which is what HCMJ wants, his year long efforts went against the "norm" that the data showed.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Nov 3 @ 6:01 PM ET
Had to sort the table in this link because their average shots was wrong by a landslide (said 2633 for me, average is 2459).

http://www.hockey-referen...com/leagues/NHL_2015.html

So, based on last year's data, 14 teams had more then the avearge number of shots, but I'll use 15 teams since Ana was 1 shot short.

Now... average goals was 224... Where do these 15 teams line up in goals that were above the average in shots?

Chicago - 229 - above
NYI - 252 - above
Nashville - 232 - above
Penguins - 221 - below
San Jose - 228 - above
Rangers - 252 - above
Dallas - 261 - above
Boston - 213 - below
Ottawa - 238 - above
LA - 220 - below
St Louis - 248 - above
Carolina - 188 - below
Minnesota - 231 - above
Florida - 206 - below
Anaheim - 236 - above

So... 10 had more goals with above average shots, 5 had less.

Seems to be leaning a bit towards more shots means more goals...

- Guile


LA and Pitt didn't miss it by very much either.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Nov 3 @ 6:04 PM ET
LA and Pitt didn't miss it by very much either.
- Victoro311



Not making those distinctions... as a few were not too far above either.

Pitt 3 below, LA 4 below... Chicago just 5 above and San Jose only 4 above.

Hell, 8 above and 3 below, with 4 too close to count makes it even better for more shots = more goals
Thunderbolt
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Wampum, PA
Joined: 01.20.2014

Nov 3 @ 6:04 PM ET
OH MY GOD SPRONG IS SKATING AT LW THIS IS NOT A DRILL
- Victoro311


This will game number nine for him if he dresses. I can't tell if that means they are just giving it a look or if they are serious about keeping him. I do think the visa was more telling and that is why I think he will stay.

Scuderi for the Norris.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Nov 3 @ 6:16 PM ET
This will game number nine for him if he dresses. I can't tell if that means they are just giving it a look or if they are serious about keeping him. I do think the visa was more telling and that is why I think he will stay.

Scuderi for the Norris.

- Thunderbolt

I just don't get why they waited till the last game to do this. What if Sprong is a dumpster fire at LW his first game? Do we take the chance that he grows into it and keep him up or do we risk missing out on a top 6 LW answer this season and send him down after a very, very small sample size? What if he looks good at LW this one game but ends up being a dumpster fire after we burn a year of his ELC?

I mean, its all a moot point since they're going to keep him up regardless, but if hypothetically our FO was intelligent, this was a bad decision.
holeinone
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 07.03.2007

Nov 3 @ 6:55 PM ET
I think it's more along the line of people always trashing Fleury when he has done nothing but be a fringe top tier goalie for the past few years, and hasn't been the reason the Pens get bounced from the playoffs.
- cap1681

Really
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Nov 3 @ 7:05 PM ET
Really
- holeinone

What? Are you under the impression that he single-handily eliminated us last year or the year before?
sditulli
Joined: 02.09.2015

Nov 3 @ 7:09 PM ET
It is almost guaranteed next years defense adds two new faces. One will be Pouliot whih may happen this year. We are fairly likely to add a veteran 3/4 dman at the deadline or UFA next year.

Cap wise our forwards are all under contract. I would assume either kunitz is traded and Perron is resigned at a cap hit lower than current cap hit and thus clearing a ton of cap space. Scuderi will be out freeing up 2 million. Maata will need a raise and probably be the only guy going up in price. Cap likely increases a few million. There is some chance Perron and Kunitz are gone. But we would likely add a Fehr type signing but that would still add space. Bottom line we should have the cap to add a Franson/ Martin level defense signing to solidify middle pairing.

So it's likely we see
Maata/Letang
UFa
With the bottom 3 spots of Cole, Dum, Pouliot in some order
7th I would guess cleandening as of right now
Lovejoy and scuderi gone

Something unexpected will happen to. But that would be the first time in years we have proper forward depth with defenseman slotted in the proper roles.

I'm banking on Dupuis staying heathy and finishing his contract. Sundqvist likely replaces Cullen
cap1681
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Verona, PA
Joined: 02.04.2010

Nov 3 @ 7:16 PM ET
Really
- holeinone


.926 save % over the the last 2+ years, plus a .924 save % in the playoffs is pretty damn good.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Nov 3 @ 7:29 PM ET
.926 save % over the the last 2+ years, plus a .924 save % in the playoffs is pretty damn good.
- cap1681


Only the ignorant think that the goal tending or the defense has been the reason for recent playoff eliminations
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Nov 3 @ 7:38 PM ET
Only the ignorant think that the goal tending or the defense has been the reason for recent playoff eliminations
- jfkst1

Defense hasn't been an issue since the Flyers series. MAF hasn't been an issue since the Frankenstein team of the lockout year.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Nov 3 @ 8:11 PM ET
Only the ignorant think that the goal tending or the defense has been the reason for recent playoff eliminations
- jfkst1



Can't say the Defense in that Blue Jacket's series was anything to write home about... granted it was the offense collapse in the 2nd half of the Ranger series that lost it for us.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Nov 3 @ 8:29 PM ET
Can't say the Defense in that Blue Jacket's series was anything to write home about... granted it was the offense collapse in the 2nd half of the Ranger series that lost it for us.
- Guile


Not saying it was great the last three years, but how many 2-1/1-0 games can one team lose in the playoffs while outshooting the opponent? Half the criticisms about the Pens are so dated I think these people think Lidstrom and Pronger are still the best two dmen in the league.
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Nov 3 @ 8:46 PM ET
We're talking about one possible opening among the defense short term and long term...Letang, Maatta, Cole, Pouliot and Dumoulin are all likely to be back next year and likely beyond.

So they need one guy. Preferably a righty. Preferably a second pairing guy, with the winner of a Cole/Pouliot/Dumoulin competition slotting in and the two who lose out composing a really solid third pair.

That's really not a tough task next offseason.

Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Nov 3 @ 8:52 PM ET
We're talking about one possible opening among the defense short term and long term...Letang, Maatta, Cole, Pouliot and Dumoulin are all likely to be back next year and likely beyond.

So they need one guy. Preferably a righty. Preferably a second pairing guy, with the winner of a Cole/Pouliot/Dumoulin competition slotting in and the two who lose out composing a really solid third pair.

That's really not a tough task next offseason.

- hardnosed


This is something that a lot of people forget when talking about our D. They're at their floor right now. Cole is just now tasting what its like to have an expanded role, Dumoulin and Clendening have 0 XP, Maatta is coming off of some major injury wows and shaking off the rust, and Pouliot isn't even up here right now. I was always cautiously optimistic about this season because we had so much talent but our back end was so young and our forward group was so new, but next year we will be a very, very good team.
acdc1206
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Fire Sullivan, PA
Joined: 06.13.2007

Nov 3 @ 8:56 PM ET
So Staal spears Ovi in the nuts. Such a piece of garbage.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Nov 3 @ 8:59 PM ET
We're talking about one possible opening among the defense short term and long term...Letang, Maatta, Cole, Pouliot and Dumoulin are all likely to be back next year and likely beyond.

So they need one guy. Preferably a righty. Preferably a second pairing guy, with the winner of a Cole/Pouliot/Dumoulin competition slotting in and the two who lose out composing a really solid third pair.

That's really not a tough task next offseason.

- hardnosed



Clendening also can be back and doubt he'd cost much... its smart to test internal options before going shopping.
IronCity
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 02.25.2012

Nov 3 @ 10:05 PM ET
Should have traded Crosby for Mr.David when there was a window of chance.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Nov 3 @ 10:30 PM ET
Should have traded Crosby for Mr.David when there was a window of chance.
- IronCity


There was never a window of chance for that.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Nov 3 @ 10:52 PM ET
There was never a window of chance for that.
- jfkst1


stackthepads
Joined: 05.13.2013

Nov 3 @ 11:00 PM ET
I just don't get why they waited till the last game to do this. What if Sprong is a dumpster fire at LW his first game? Do we take the chance that he grows into it and keep him up or do we risk missing out on a top 6 LW answer this season and send him down after a very, very small sample size? What if he looks good at LW this one game but ends up being a dumpster fire after we burn a year of his ELC?

I mean, its all a moot point since they're going to keep him up regardless, but if hypothetically our FO was intelligent, this was a bad decision.

- Victoro311


Sprong wont be a dumpster fire because Sid has shown he works well with 3rd liners and even fringe NHLers (Gibbons) and at this point Sprong thats what Sprong is.
Sprong is also 18, Sid says I need you to do this and Sprong is not going to question it for a second, I think it is worth a shot. Also Id like to see if some of Sprongs excitement will rub off on Sid.
Sell My Monkey
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: United States
Joined: 05.02.2008

Nov 3 @ 11:02 PM ET
Should have traded Crosby for Mr.David when there was a window of chance.
- IronCity


McDavid just went into the boards. He could definitely be a Penguin

Hope its not serious, was enjoying the Oiler games thus far.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Nov 3 @ 11:08 PM ET
We're talking about one possible opening among the defense short term and long term...Letang, Maatta, Cole, Pouliot and Dumoulin are all likely to be back next year and likely beyond.

So they need one guy. Preferably a righty. Preferably a second pairing guy, with the winner of a Cole/Pouliot/Dumoulin competition slotting in and the two who lose out composing a really solid third pair.

That's really not a tough task next offseason.

- hardnosed


So Matt Niskanen?
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Nov 3 @ 11:22 PM ET
McDavid just went into the boards. He could definitely be a Penguin

Hope its not serious, was enjoying the Oiler games thus far.

- Sell My Monkey


Crap. Was really looking forward to seeing him against the Pens. TSN says his arm is in a sling.
Sell My Monkey
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: United States
Joined: 05.02.2008

Nov 3 @ 11:26 PM ET
Crap. Was really looking forward to seeing him against the Pens. TSN says his arm is in a sling.
- madmike71


Not good

https://pbs.twimg.com/twe...video/CS8D806WoAAy834.mp4[url]
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