Where do you get the 40% number? I have a guess but you won't like it.

Also, that example is ridiculous, of course one is harder to save than the other. No one is saying all shots are equal, just that they average out to X over time.

I'd say shot volume - doesn't matter from where or when or who - is the main key in winning hockey games.

Look at OV, not a high shooting %. but 90 more shots than anyone else.
- James_Tanner

Your mixing things there James. Shots taken from the point will always go in a lesser percentage of the time than do shots taken directly from the dead slot.
I think shot volume is a key, but just one of many.

Where do you get the 40% number? I have a guess but you won't like it.

Also, that example is ridiculous, of course one is harder to save than the other. No one is saying all shots are equal, just that they average out to X over time.

I'd say shot volume - doesn't matter from where or when or who - is the main key in winning hockey games.

Look at OV, not a high shooting %. but 90 more shots than anyone else.
- James_Tanner

What about Stamkos and his goal total, shot total, and shooting %?

Oh and, Dan Girardi had a CF% of 50.2% from 2012-14.

Where do you even get that number? Numbers are evidence and they supercede feelings. Sure, you can be biased in which numbers you use, but if you're fair and attempt some objectivity, you can do alright. With watching, you don't even know yourself which of your memories are true.
- James_Tanner

From what NHL GM's such as Ron Hextall state, in how much analytics are taken into account when looking at individual players. If what you say is true, teams will fire hockey guys as GM's and give full control to analytic guys and mathematicians, rather than continue to use them to supplement more traditional methods of player evaluations.

I think your copy & paste is stuck.
- mdw7413

The Flames fan won't answer why his Flames made the playoffs despite their terrible Corsi, why their 2 top 10 defensemen in Giordano and Brodie are considered elite when they have terrible Corsi, and neither him nor Tanner will recognize Girardi's 50.2% CF% in 2012-14. Wtf?

The Flames fan won't answer why his Flames made the playoffs despite their terrible Corsi, why their 2 top 10 defensemen in Giordano and Brodie are considered elite when they have terrible Corsi, and neither him nor Tanner will recognize Girardi's 50.2% CF% in 2012-14. Wtf?
- rangerdanger94

Didnt we also have a terrible team Corsi? Presidents trophy and ECF appearance. Maybe just maybe the advanced stats don't tell the whole story, just part of it.

Didnt we also have a terrible team Corsi? Presidents trophy and ECF appearance. Maybe just maybe the advanced stats don't tell the whole story, just part of it.
- mdw7413

Stop being biased.

Did you know that Dan Girardi had a CF% of 50.2% from 2012-14 btw?

Stop being biased.

Did you know that Dan Girardi had a CF% of 50.2% from 2012-14 btw?
- rangerdanger94

To be fair to those coaches, its only recently these ideas are gaining traction and they are old school guys.

Maybe i am too hard on the grossmann, but i hate that acquisition
- James_Tanner

yes and yes....no need for phoenix to get him... i will also bet they recoup a draft pick at the deadline if he is healthy.

Yeah, everyone who has a different opinion than you do just doesn't get it.

I would trust a mathematician who has only looked at data and never seen a game over the world's most trusted scout.
- James_Tanner

An pure mathematician would point out to you that on average there are less than 60 shots per game, and shots take less than a second. So any mathematical analysis based purely upon shots taken is analysis of around 1 percent of what happens in a game.

The counter arguments given by people trying to push advanced stats are that measuring shots is measuring results of what happens before, thus measuring a high percentage of what happens in a hockey game; and that a large enough sample will account for the results which happen on ice beyond a players control. Problem is, the first of those arguments is disagreed with by those who know a lot more about hockey than those pushing advanced stats; and the second being true would also mean that plus/minus is a valid stat to base analysis on, something advanced stats guys say is rubbish.

The Flames fan won't answer why his Flames made the playoffs despite their terrible Corsi, why their 2 top 10 defensemen in Giordano and Brodie are considered elite when they have terrible Corsi, and neither him nor Tanner will recognize Girardi's 50.2% CF% in 2012-14. Wtf?
- rangerdanger94

Brodie and Gio have excellent relative corsi, but our team was a terrible possession team that survived on a high shooting percentage and absolute dominance at 4 on 4 and 6 on 5.

Brodie and Gio have excellent relative corsi, but our team was a terrible possession team that survived on a high shooting percentage and absolute dominance at 4 on 4 and 6 on 5.
- jtommyt

No problem, all that Calgary has to do is attempt, not on net, but just attempt 4 more shots per game than their opponents do, over the course of the season, and they'll be a top 10 possession team.

An pure mathematician would point out to you that on average there are less than 60 shots per game, and shots take less than a second. So any mathematical analysis based purely upon shots taken is analysis of around 1 percent of what happens in a game.

The counter arguments given by people trying to push advanced stats are that measuring shots is measuring results of what happens before, therefore uring a high percentage of what happens in a hockey game; and that a large enough sample will account for the results which happen on ice beyond a players control. Problem is, the first of those arguments is disagreed with by those who know a lot more about hockey than those pushing advanced stats; and the second being true would also mean that plus/minus is a valid stat to base analysis on, something advanced stats guys say is rubbish.
- Antilles

That's not right at all. The goal of shot based metrics is to predict future scoring. Goals are the only events that truly matter, but when you look only at successful goals, there isn't a large enough sample size to accurately forecast with reliability. Shots are the events that create goals, and they're less influenced by luck therefore providing a better indication of which team was better overall and more likely to win in future contests.

No problem, all that Calgary has to do is attempt, not on net, but just attempt 4 more shots per game than their opponents do, over the course of the season, and they'll be a top 10 possession team.
- MJL

You're being obtuse, but even in that situation it would be 4 more plays going the right way rather than the wrong way. At worst it would reduce chances against.

Hey Tanner, just curious. Have you ever investigated something that you thought was true, then determined after research that you were wrong?

You're being obtuse, but even in that situation it would be 4 more plays going the right way rather than the wrong way. At worst it would reduce chances against.
- jtommyt

Is that what I'm being? It seems easier when said than it actually is.

Hey Tanner, just curious. Have you ever investigated something that you thought was true, then determined after research that you were wrong?
- tkecanuck341

Yes,like a million times. Even on this blog I've recannted and changed my mind when new information is brought to light. At least I'm pretty sure haha.


When I first started doing this, I was very much in the screw stats crowd and couldn't understand why people didn't like Bozak more. As it became apparent that the stats thing had value, I began researching it and applying it to my writing.

But just in general, my life philosophy is that there isn't anything I believe in that I won't change my mind about if shown new information.

If I don't usually seem open minded its because I'm usually not going to bring something up without at least thinking I have a good idea about it.

How much do zone starts matter is like a koan.

How much do zone starts matter is like a koan.
- Zezel

Haha that's pretty funny actually. But unlike a Koan, there is probably a real and non philosophic answer here.

Brodie and Gio have excellent relative corsi, but our team was a terrible possession team that survived on a high shooting percentage and absolute dominance at 4 on 4 and 6 on 5.
- jtommyt

Yes but did you know that Dan Girardi had a CF% of 50.2% from 2012-14?

Yes,like a million times. Even on this blog I've recannted and changed my mind when new information is brought to light. At least I'm pretty sure haha.


When I first started doing this, I was very much in the screw stats crowd and couldn't understand why people didn't like Bozak more. As it became apparent that the stats thing had value, I began researching it and applying it to my writing.

But just in general, my life philosophy is that there isn't anything I believe in that I won't change my mind about if shown new information.

If I don't usually seem open minded its because I'm usually not going to bring something up without at least thinking I have a good idea about it.
- James_Tanner

Have you thought about the fact that Dan Girardi had a CF% of 50.2% from 2012-14?

Haha that's pretty funny actually. But unlike a Koan, there is probably a real and non philosophic answer here.
- James_Tanner

Your points make sense, zone starts don't seem to be a big factor.

Have you thought about the fact that Dan Girardi had a CF% of 50.2% from 2012-14?
- rangerdanger94

Have you thought about the fact that the team he played for has been a strong possession team in the period of time? Would you compare work efficiency based on your salary in New York to someone doing the same thing in Alabama? Of course not. It would be compared RELATIVE to those in the same market and position.

Analytics should be the only way to judge players. Eye tests are faulty because all humans are subject to biases. This is proven in science and doesn't apply to only hockey: it applies to everything

-James Tanner

It applies to everything...except Cody Franson?

Analytics should be about 1%...the guy who said 10% was being generous and just trying to make you feel better.

Have you thought about the fact that the team he played for has been a strong possession team in the period of time? Would you compare work efficiency based on your salary in New York to someone doing the same thing in Alabama? Of course not. It would be compared RELATIVE to those in the same market and position.
- jfkst1

Did you know that Letang had a CF% of 51.3% in 2012-14 compared to Pittsburgh's 54.2% team CF%?

Clearly Letang was a third pairing defenseman that was nothing more than a possession anchor.

Did you know that Letang had a CF% of 51.3% in 2012-14 compared to Pittsburgh's 54.2% team CF%?

Clearly Letang was a third pairing defenseman that was nothing more than a possession anchor.
- rangerdanger94

That's completely wrong. Do you just fabricate stats to reinforce your positions?
Kris Letang has posted very positive relative possession numbers (something you inexplicably ignore) every single season of his injury prone career? http://www.hockey-referen...letankr01-additional.html