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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Another Metric That Points To A Chris Kunitz Rebound Season
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Thorny
Location: OH
Joined: 10.15.2011

Aug 26 @ 4:45 PM ET
I would direct you to the "Visit Cleveland Town" videos, but I don't have the heart for someone who actually lives in Ohio. But yo, Athens is the bomb!
- jmatchett383



I am not a fan of any Ohio teams, other than OSU. I must admit, die hard there. I am a Eagles fan

I live outside of youngstown, cleveland has nothing on this area. I do agree Athens is great though.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Aug 26 @ 4:51 PM ET
I am not a fan of any Ohio teams, other than OSU. I must admit, die hard there. I am a Eagles fan

I live outside of youngstown, cleveland has nothing on this area. I do agree Athens is great though.

- Thorny



Zac_O
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.17.2015

Aug 26 @ 5:00 PM ET
The problem with that statement is that 40pts or .56pts/gm isn't an underperforming 3rd liner, it's closer to average 2nd line production and 3.85M for average 2nd line production is good value.
- jaydogg1974

He had that production because he was on the top 2 lines. With the depth now he is looking like a 3rd line guy. Without Sid or Geno its safe to assume his production will drop considering his age. Unless you think he is still a top 6 winger and that either Duper (3.75 million) or Perron (3.812 million) will be third line instead. Both still kinda pricey for third line. Even though Perron struggled at the end of the season its hard to see him in a third line role. Duper has a lot of injury questions but due to his history, speed, and personality has more of an anchor to stay in Pittsburgh. So the odd man out is Kuni. Unless they don't re-sign Perron at the end of the season to keep Kuni. Which I would say would be a mistake considering Kunis age. Its not that I don't like him its that it might be whats best for the team to move on from him. Its the same way I feel about Scuds, except I'm a Scuds fan and want him gone a lot more than i would want Kuni gone.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Aug 26 @ 5:54 PM ET
Ok so the blog today has another stat on production showing what value a player may or may not have? It appears by just looking at the information on display that the player named is getting older & his production is getting less - Father Time is doing his job?

So if the stats today are an indication of a player that can have (good possibility???), a rebound year, which stat is 1 that shows us the decline of a player?

I realise things went against Kuni last season & I for one am hoping he returns to form next season but showing a declining statistic as age increases is more a point that the player is regressing naturally - isn't it?

If he had great possession stats but shooting % was low then again another point that his play is regressing slowly. This year may see less possession & a further decline in shooting & points. If everything starts pointing in the wrong direction then what does that mean for a player?

Edit: Further to that, the blog has Gunners interpretation to the information provided. Isn't Analytics supposed to be black & white? Numbers don't lie? It is a very small sample size also, it would be great to have 20 similar players stats shown to compare.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Aug 26 @ 5:58 PM ET
He had that production because he was on the top 2 lines. With the depth now he is looking like a 3rd line guy. Without Sid or Geno its safe to assume his production will drop considering his age. Unless you think he is still a top 6 winger and that either Duper (3.75 million) or Perron (3.812 million) will be third line instead. Both still kinda pricey for third line. Even though Perron struggled at the end of the season its hard to see him in a third line role. Duper has a lot of injury questions but due to his history, speed, and personality has more of an anchor to stay in Pittsburgh. So the odd man out is Kuni. Unless they don't re-sign Perron at the end of the season to keep Kuni. Which I would say would be a mistake considering Kunis age. Its not that I don't like him its that it might be whats best for the team to move on from him. Its the same way I feel about Scuds, except I'm a Scuds fan and want him gone a lot more than i would want Kuni gone.
- Zac_O


Didn't he have damaged ribs but played anyway? Any rib injury is a painful one so just playing a contact sport was a big effort in my opinion. I believe Perron will go ok this season in a very competent top 6 - I know it's an intangible, but players playing around other really good players can have added confidence that creates a high performance group.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Aug 26 @ 6:02 PM ET
Data analysis is all about constructing a team. Adding Kessel to the past few years' squads wouldn't have lead to success since we had plugs like Pyatt, Adams, Vitalle, Glass, etc in the bottom half of our line up. Swapping out Sutter for Fehr and Bonino, the Cullen signing, betting on Kunitz and Bennett, not bringing back Lapierre or Adams: these were all analytically sound moves in team construction. Hell, bringing in Kessel was a tremendously analytically sound move.

Basically what I'm saying is yes, the two biggest factors to our on ice success will be Kessel and good health. But this new phylosophy to team construction during the offseason has given us the supporting cast that may put us over the top.

- Victoro311


No, on here it's used to evaluate players! We have discussed many times situations where stats were the crux in game situations, so they weren't being used as a team building tool, they were used analysing game type situations - very different!
mikey55
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Butler, PA
Joined: 03.10.2015

Aug 26 @ 6:36 PM ET
Thx Ryan, Kuny bust his tail for our Pens in his career. Did a great job down low. Hope the metrics and health work in his favor this year....but there're others hopefully coming along. Like we say, he got them 3 baby legs, eh
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Aug 26 @ 7:42 PM ET

If he had great possession stats but shooting % was low then again another point that his play is regressing slowly. This year may see less possession & a further decline in shooting & points. If everything starts pointing in the wrong direction then what does that mean for a player?

- Aussiepenguin


First and foremost, is there a stat that quantifies recovery from an iron deficiency? Or is that a less reasonable answer than random chance when it comes to explaining Kunitz's down year?!?

And for those who watched him play last year, Kunitz had great possession because he played with two actual possession monsters in Crosby and Hornqvist for much of the year, while Kunitz looked rightfully sluggish and was often very far behind the play.
lloyd095
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 07.09.2006

Aug 26 @ 7:55 PM ET
I'm thrilled we signed a goon but I guess I'm the only one.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Aug 26 @ 8:02 PM ET
First and foremost, is there a stat that quantifies recovery from an iron deficiency? Or is that a less reasonable answer than random chance when it comes to explaining Kunitz's down year?!?

And for those who watched him play last year, Kunitz had great possession because he played with two actual possession monsters in Crosby and Hornqvist for much of the year, while Kunitz looked rightfully sluggish and was often very far behind the play.

- hardnosed



I would consider the "iron deficiency" stat to be coming back from an injury, that was not a major break, or a concussion that is not the first one... In other words, you were banged up, play was bad, then next year you rebound.

Penguins do have a plethora of rebound from injuries/illness/Lupis stats we can look at. Dupuis does not help this, as he comes back from big injuries like nothing happened, and is the exception to the rule (despite this helping the argument for Kunitz's case).
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Aug 26 @ 8:06 PM ET
I'm thrilled we signed a goon but I guess I'm the only one.
- lloyd095


I'm with you. And he's a big goon, not somebody who will just get housed.

We're not yet at the point where NHL teams don't need a physical guy or two who will drop the gloves. The Penguins literally have nobody to play that role as it stands.

Bonino has never been in a professional-league fight, Fehr has never been in an NHL fight, and Cullen has been in 2 NHL fights, the last one being in 1999.

Team toughness (against certain teams) is going to be an issue.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 26 @ 8:45 PM ET
I'm thrilled we signed a goon but I guess I'm the only one.
- lloyd095


PTO. So hopefully he and Gonchar don't make it.
jchst22
Joined: 01.24.2013

Aug 26 @ 9:23 PM ET
I'm with you. And he's a big goon, not somebody who will just get housed.

We're not yet at the point where NHL teams don't need a physical guy or two who will drop the gloves. The Penguins literally have nobody to play that role as it stands.

Bonino has never been in a professional-league fight, Fehr has never been in an NHL fight, and Cullen has been in 2 NHL fights, the last one being in 1999.

Team toughness (against certain teams) is going to be an issue.

- hardnosed


Toughness doesn't mean you have to fight.
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Aug 26 @ 9:32 PM ET
Toughness doesn't mean you have to fight.
- jchst22


It goes beyond fighting.

Who are the Penguins' big hitters?

Who are the Penguins who will respond to opposing teams' shenanigans (literally the only guy I can think of is Letang).

And fighting is fighting, and it's part of team toughness. The Penguins have no one who can fight (except, once again, Letang).

jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Aug 26 @ 10:05 PM ET
It goes beyond fighting.

Who are the Penguins' big hitters?

Who are the Penguins who will respond to opposing teams' shenanigans (literally the only guy I can think of is Letang).

And fighting is fighting, and it's part of team toughness. The Penguins have no one who can fight (except, once again, Letang).

- hardnosed


I'm fine with fighting, but I don't want anymore non-NHL caliber players on the roster like Sesito strictly because they can fight. TBL and CHI didn't have any enforcers consistently in their rosters and it didn't hurt them at all.
stackthepads
Joined: 05.13.2013

Aug 26 @ 10:59 PM ET
It goes beyond fighting.

Who are the Penguins' big hitters?

Who are the Penguins who will respond to opposing teams' shenanigans (literally the only guy I can think of is Letang).

And fighting is fighting, and it's part of team toughness. The Penguins have no one who can fight (except, once again, Letang).

- hardnosed



You know Im struggling with this question myself, when I look at team building I always think of it in terms of old style Canadian hockey, the grind you down relentless style.
But when I look at our roster, honestly Im excited about the 4 line attack more than I am worried about the intimidation that the bigger teams are going to try to apply.
The way I see it, no one is going to intimidate Crosby, Malkin, Hornqvist, Dupuis, Kunitz, even Kessel while he doesnt go in the corners, the rough stuff doesnt throw him off his game. Fehr isnt going to get intimidated, Cullen is too old to be scared off whos left to worry about? No one that really matters to our success is going to be intimidated.
Our defense aren't physical but they arent small with the exception of Pouliot. Dumo and Cole are both big boys, Letang doesnt care if things get physical, Maata seemed okay with it, Scuderi and Lovejoy are veterans who spent alot of time in the Pacific which is probably the most physical division in hockey.

Our "lack" of team toughness is going to be offset by one of the most potent power plays units ever (on paper, that sh!t better work this year). IF the refs call the game properly that is.
lloyd095
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 07.09.2006

Aug 26 @ 11:30 PM ET
I'm with you. And he's a big goon, not somebody who will just get housed.

We're not yet at the point where NHL teams don't need a physical guy or two who will drop the gloves. The Penguins literally have nobody to play that role as it stands.

Bonino has never been in a professional-league fight, Fehr has never been in an NHL fight, and Cullen has been in 2 NHL fights, the last one being in 1999.

Team toughness (against certain teams) is going to be an issue.

- hardnosed


Hockey has always had a place for these guys but now we live in a world where everything has to be pussified. Love when games get messy and love having someone to answer the call.

Anyone wanting to watch Goc play on a 4th line instead of a Sestito is ruining a great game.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Aug 27 @ 12:35 AM ET
Hockey has always had a place for these guys but now we live in a world where everything has to be pussified. Love when games get messy and love having someone to answer the call.

Anyone wanting to watch Goc play on a 4th line instead of a Sestito is ruining a great game.

- lloyd095


I dont want to see goal scoring in boxing. only thing ruining a great game is unnecessary staged fighting. its boring, and contributes to the reason the sport is competing with golf and tennis.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Aug 27 @ 12:39 AM ET
It goes beyond fighting.

Who are the Penguins' big hitters?

Who are the Penguins who will respond to opposing teams' shenanigans (literally the only guy I can think of is Letang).

And fighting is fighting, and it's part of team toughness. The Penguins have no one who can fight (except, once again, Letang).

- hardnosed


pens dont need anyone who can fight and hitting should be to ONLY separate a man from the puck. I am not worried about that ability with our team. If I never see another hockey "fight" again I would be a happy man. it is soooooo dumb.


though I guess it would mean less bathroom, grab a beer, hockeybuzz breaks during the game..... canned fights were always a good time for that.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Aug 27 @ 12:57 AM ET
Bennett has to show he has a pulse. Don't hand him a spot just yet. He doesn't deserve a slot like that without proving anything.
- Oneonta Penguin


Saw some Bennett trade proposals out on the interwebs...would anyone trade Bennett for Tinordi?
thevelvetfog1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.19.2015

Aug 27 @ 2:50 AM ET
I agree that fighting has become utterly ridiculous, but the following is just as true today as it was in 2006:

"dey soff like I’ve never seen a bunch of defensemen [or the entire Pens team] soff like dis. So around there, you put the two, combination, and… Well, so hey… Dere’s a lotta guys don’t care, they pretend to care, but I know dey don’t care… What’s a solution? Gonna find solution. It’s a game of emotion, it’s a game of harr work, it’s a game of passion, y'know dere’s, hey… Like Kovachoo… What he did, the other day… There’s not one guy… was close to do something… Maybe Maxim Tal-but… At the end wit… one secon leff… 'sabout five foot eight… Pppt. Di, did.. Did dey tink dat… as a coach, dat I get da feeling dat team care for each udder? Wow… Y'know? Try to have a good ambiance, y'know, wit da team yesterday… Pppt. Ay. So I guess we gonna have to come back wit de old recipe, you know? It’s like… Dey make my job miserable? So… It’s give and take. What can I do? Hey. I’m so disappoint, about, a lots of guy… Very disappoint. Because dey don’ care. If dey care, y'know? Tonight, it’s looks like mens against boys. Ay"

One thing I really like about Kessel is that he sticks up for his teammates, both in the press and on the ice. How many times do you see the opposition take liberties with Pens players and nobody does a single thing about it? Who stepped up when Thornton attacked Orpik? Who stepped up when Rinaldo ran Letang? Who stepped up when Staal repeatedly hacked Crosby? The examples are endless. Dey soff. I miss guys like Asham, one of my all-time favorites. What he did to the dirty diver/faker B. Schenn after he ran Martin was a thing of beauty.

I don't care about PPs that usually aren't given 4 times out of 5. If someone takes liberties, I want a hard slash right away, even if it means going on the PK. I don't want a stupid staged fight between goon A and goon B. I want the player responsible for taking liberties slashed or cross-checked or punched hard. Immediately. Draw a line in the sand and stop taking unavenged cheap shots.

How's that for a rant?
thevelvetfog1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.19.2015

Aug 27 @ 5:00 AM ET
Back to calmer topics regarding defensemen, I think teams with good/great 2-way/defensive forwards (NYR, Boston, Chicago, Anaheim, etc.) cover for whatever defensive deficiencies they might have and make their defensemen as a whole look a lot better than they actually are. Kind of like how defenses impact goalies and can make average goalies look good or good goalies look average.

This is what scares me about the Pens. Their forwards are pretty far down the list of 2-way / defense-minded forwards. Couple this with a thin / inexperienced / injury-prone / old and slow D corps and it is a recipe for disaster. Sure, you can win a lot of games 6-5 and 5-4 in the regular season, but come playoff time...as we've seen before. Of course the fewer PPs during the playoffs also come into play. It appears the Pens are going all-in for all offense, all finesse (notwithstanding the Tostito PTO). I feel like it's just another cruel set-up.

Who will be the Pens "shutdown" line? Every team needs one. The only two-way forward I can think of is Fehr and who knows how much he'll end up playing. Dupuis I suppose. Plotnikov? Every other forward seems to give a token effort on D - not good.
thevelvetfog1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.19.2015

Aug 27 @ 5:27 AM ET
Saw some Bennett trade proposals out on the interwebs...would anyone trade Bennett for Tinordi?
- YouMeAndDupuis9

I would in a second. Tinordi provides what the Pens lack - size, grit and toughness. He could develop into a good defenseman and penalty-killer. Bennett probably tops out as a 2nd or 3rd line winger IF he can stay healthy which is a big IF. Even if he does stay healthy, the Pens don't need any more unproductive/moderately productive finesse floaters and the Pens certainly don't need another injury-waiting-to-happen player to screw up the lines, depth chart, salary cap, etc. even further. And if it means an immediate end to the non-hockey player / complete idiot Tostito experiment, by all means do it!
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Aug 27 @ 6:14 AM ET
You know Im struggling with this question myself, when I look at team building I always think of it in terms of old style Canadian hockey, the grind you down relentless style.
But when I look at our roster, honestly Im excited about the 4 line attack more than I am worried about the intimidation that the bigger teams are going to try to apply.
The way I see it, no one is going to intimidate Crosby, Malkin, Hornqvist, Dupuis, Kunitz, even Kessel while he doesnt go in the corners, the rough stuff doesnt throw him off his game. Fehr isnt going to get intimidated, Cullen is too old to be scared off whos left to worry about? No one that really matters to our success is going to be intimidated.
Our defense aren't physical but they arent small with the exception of Pouliot. Dumo and Cole are both big boys, Letang doesnt care if things get physical, Maata seemed okay with it, Scuderi and Lovejoy are veterans who spent alot of time in the Pacific which is probably the most physical division in hockey.

Our "lack" of team toughness is going to be offset by one of the most potent power plays units ever (on paper, that sh!t better work this year). IF the refs call the game properly that is.

- stackthepads


I see what you are saying, but why wouldn't Staal have a go at Sid again! Why wouldn't Dubinsky keep annoying him? They can & probably still will. When someone goes after a star on another team there is usually someone that hits back, Seabrook, Hedman (I think?), Jackman, just to name a few. Other teams always have players that will hit you hard. Who do we have? Our D aren't known for their hitting except for Tanger. Last year Kuni was our best hitter that is still on our team - who is afraid of Kuni?

What happens when the refs put their whistles away?

We aren't tough so hopefully the refs call the penalties & we score the goals we will need when we play the Caps, Islanders, Ducks, Rags, Tampa, Jackets, Philly & I'll throw the Flames in there as well, did I forget anyone?
powerhouse
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Columbia , MD
Joined: 11.28.2006

Aug 27 @ 7:02 AM ET

If we are going to talk about Kunitz in this format I question it's relevance here. The problem is he has an iron deficiency. I have not heard one word on his medical status. Where did this deficiency come from? Is it being treated effectively? Is he back up to previous iron levels and maintaining them while doing aggressive conditioning?
If he is back up to snuff medically then we can expect a better year, If not, then all this talking here is irrelevant.
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