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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Does the Cap Situation Start with Stamkos or Hedman?
Author Message
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 7 @ 2:31 PM ET
Leadership isn't worth $5.8MM per season against the cap. You give out 'leadership' contracts to guy like Morrow, as bad as he was. A long-term deal with a big cap hit shouldn't be handed out for anything but on-ice results.
- Michael_Stuart

Look at it this way my friend. Callahan did you a favor by asking for a little more because if he didn't, Yzerman may have had enough cap space to resign Morrow!

But in all seriousness, most of us are unhappy with the pay, but honestly we are talking about 500 to 800k. His on-ice production both in points and eye test make it easy to swallow. Yes he did get a bonanza of points during the post season, but I remember on a number of when a he was the reason we scored.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Aug 7 @ 6:32 PM ET
On ice results as in points? Morrow may be a leader in the room but Callahan leads on the ice, points or not. He goes hard into the corners, takes a beating in front of the net, stands up for his teammates, back checks, blocks shots. The points, 50, 60, 40 are great too. Callahan would have got that same amount, if not more, on the open market so I think his on ice leadership has great value.
- Kucherovski


If those things don't show up in the form of tangible results, how valuable are they? They did this year for Callahan, and so he was a key cog. But if his ability to push possession and create offense disappears, those things are rendered meaningless. I was pleasantly surprised by Callahan this season --- didn't think he would be as good.

Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 7 @ 6:36 PM ET
If those things don't show up in the form of tangible results, how valuable are they? They did this year for Callahan, and so he was a key cog. But if his ability to push possession and create offense disappears, those things are rendered meaningless. I was pleasantly surprised by Callahan this season --- didn't think he would be as good.
- Michael_Stuart

He is a cog on the Lightning roster and an important one.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Aug 7 @ 8:32 PM ET
He is a cog on the Lightning roster and an important one.
- Artyukhin76


Yes, because the things he did translated into results. Can we bank on that continuing?
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 8 @ 4:36 AM ET
Yes, because the things he did translated into results. Can we bank on that continuing?
- Michael_Stuart

I believe so, yes.
Kucherovski
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 07.22.2015

Aug 8 @ 8:25 AM ET
If those things don't show up in the form of tangible results, how valuable are they? They did this year for Callahan, and so he was a key cog. But if his ability to push possession and create offense disappears, those things are rendered meaningless. I was pleasantly surprised by Callahan this season --- didn't think he would be as good.
- Michael_Stuart


The beating he puts on the D, the blocked shot, the annoyance of the D and goalie in front don't always translate into points for him or someone else but are very valuable. $5.8m valuable, time will tell. As of now I think yes.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 8 @ 9:49 AM ET
The beating he puts on the D, the blocked shot, the annoyance of the D and goalie in front don't always translate into points for him or someone else but are very valuable. $5.8m valuable, time will tell. As of now I think yes.
- Kucherovski

Great, me and you agree on something that means I have to go kill myself now. Excuse me while I go jump off the sunshine skyway.
TBolts4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Apollo Beach, FL
Joined: 06.01.2013

Aug 8 @ 12:56 PM ET
Great, me and you agree on something that means I have to go kill myself now. Excuse me while I go jump off the sunshine skyway.
- Artyukhin76


Don't have to go that far... just go in South Tampa, heard the streets are flooding again!
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Aug 8 @ 1:24 PM ET
The beating he puts on the D, the blocked shot, the annoyance of the D and goalie in front don't always translate into points for him or someone else but are very valuable. $5.8m valuable, time will tell. As of now I think yes.
- Kucherovski


Those things are valuable if they help to generate results. It doesn't have to mean points for him (though it should at $5.8MM --- you can find guys to block shots and hit for a lot less), but it has to mean possession for his linemates and opportunities created for his linemates as well. It did last season. I'm not sure it will in the latter years of that deal.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 8 @ 4:03 PM ET
Those things are valuable if they help to generate results. It doesn't have to mean points for him (though it should at $5.8MM --- you can find guys to block shots and hit for a lot less), but it has to mean possession for his linemates and opportunities created for his linemates as well. It did last season. I'm not sure it will in the latter years of that deal.
- Michael_Stuart

At least it'll give you a punching bag for some blogs during those years
stammerman
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 07.05.2013

Aug 9 @ 5:29 PM ET
OH Eklund... just straight up putting rumors with no base to them for CLICKS... ... maybe Stamkos signs or doesnt but I highly doubt Eklund knows anything about it.
Kucherovski
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 07.22.2015

Aug 10 @ 8:14 AM ET
OH Eklund... just straight up putting rumors with no base to them for CLICKS... ... maybe Stamkos signs or doesnt but I highly doubt Eklund knows anything about it.
- stammerman


Agree, Stamkos, his family and his agent, maybe Steve Yzerman are the only people who know. Nobody within Eklunds rumor circle know at all. Scary thing is the lack of news we have heard about the contract or negotiations. Camps open in about a month and we have heard nothing from anyone.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 10 @ 8:47 AM ET
Agree, Stamkos, his family and his agent, maybe Steve Yzerman are the only people who know. Nobody within Eklunds rumor circle know at all. Scary thing is the lack of news we have heard about the contract or negotiations. Camps open in about a month and we have heard nothing from anyone.
- Kucherovski

Eklunds "Rumor Circle" is his collection of porcelain dolls and beanie babies.
tpd11
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 05.22.2008

Aug 10 @ 10:48 AM ET
Eklunds "Rumor Circle" is his collection of porcelain dolls and beanie babies.
- Artyukhin76

i would have guessed he had no toys as a kid
meta_puck_luck
Location: The D
Joined: 03.05.2014

Aug 10 @ 1:16 PM ET
The train wreck is closer than this blog implies. If this offseason has taught us anything, its that cap-strapped GM's are easily stampeded by the threat of offer sheets (Dougie, Saad, Tarasenko). The real horns of Stevie Y's dilemma will draw blood THIS year between Stamkos vs. Kucherov/Killorn. If Kuch's agent lets him sign for anything less than $7mill he should be banished to KHL duty. The offer sheets will drive it, if for no other reason than to blast out a front runner's salary structure.

Of course, there are solid performance reasons as well. Saad makes a useful comparison: 22 yrs old, 23g,29a,+7,11 play off pts. That was worth $6mill, after a panicky trade amid flurries of offer sheet threats. Kucherov at 22 put up 13 more pts (29g/36a), was +38, and had double the playoff pts, all on the 2d line. Stepan (25y/o) just got $6.5m for 10 fewer pts and half the playoff production. Ditto Bobby Ryan's production (at $7.25m), Stastny ($7m), O'Reilly ($7.5m), Bergeron ($6.875m), Eric Staal ($8.25m), Duchene ($6m), and slightly better #'s than even Parise ($7.54m) and Spezza ($7.5m) despite being 10 yrs younger. Tarasenko (23y/o) is really the best comparison for age and accomplishment - $7.5 mill! I won't waste your time doing comparisons on Killorn - he's gone.

So the real question is: Who should you keep between Stamkos and Kucherov? Stamkos now has an alarming pattern of choking in the playoffs. Kucherov was the more pivotal player (you could argue the Finals turned on the play where Crawford pushed him into the goal post in game 5). I think its an easy call: let a rival like Toronto break the bank on Stamkos and lock Kucherov in now for $7m before rivals (&/or another monster season) inflate him higher. This gives you the best chance of holding onto Hedman which is clearly the highest priority of all.
Kucherovski
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 07.22.2015

Aug 10 @ 2:38 PM ET
The train wreck is closer than this blog implies. If this offseason has taught us anything, its that cap-strapped GM's are easily stampeded by the threat of offer sheets (Dougie, Saad, Tarasenko). The real horns of Stevie Y's dilemma will draw blood THIS year between Stamkos vs. Kucherov/Killorn. If Kuch's agent lets him sign for anything less than $7mill he should be banished to KHL duty. The offer sheets will drive it, if for no other reason than to blast out a front runner's salary structure.

Of course, there are solid performance reasons as well. Saad makes a useful comparison: 22 yrs old, 23g,29a,+7,11 play off pts. That was worth $6mill, after a panicky trade amid flurries of offer sheet threats. Kucherov at 22 put up 13 more pts (29g/36a), was +38, and had double the playoff pts, all on the 2d line. Stepan (25y/o) just got $6.5m for 10 fewer pts and half the playoff production. Ditto Bobby Ryan's production (at $7.25m), Stastny ($7m), O'Reilly ($7.5m), Bergeron ($6.875m), Eric Staal ($8.25m), Duchene ($6m), and slightly better #'s than even Parise ($7.54m) and Spezza ($7.5m) despite being 10 yrs younger. Tarasenko (23y/o) is really the best comparison for age and accomplishment - $7.5 mill! I won't waste your time doing comparisons on Killorn - he's gone.

So the real question is: Who should you keep between Stamkos and Kucherov? Stamkos now has an alarming pattern of choking in the playoffs. Kucherov was the more pivotal player (you could argue the Finals turned on the play where Crawford pushed him into the goal post in game 5). I think its an easy call: let a rival like Toronto break the bank on Stamkos and lock Kucherov in now for $7m before rivals (&/or another monster season) inflate him higher. This gives you the best chance of holding onto Hedman which is clearly the highest priority of all.

- meta_puck_luck


Why can't they both stay? Chicago has 2 $10m guys and a $6m goalie. Stammer gets $10m - $11m, Kucherov gets $6m - $7m. Hedman gets $7m - $8m. Killorn may be the cap casualty but the way things are shaping up he may be on the 3rd line to start this coming season, a spot hopefully Erne can take. Stralman and Garrison have reasonable hits, Coburn goes away. Carle is the big one, he needs to go to make room for Hedmans raise in my opinion but to your point I don't see how it can't work with Kucherov, Stamkos and Hedman.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 10 @ 5:23 PM ET
The train wreck is closer than this blog implies. If this offseason has taught us anything, its that cap-strapped GM's are easily stampeded by the threat of offer sheets (Dougie, Saad, Tarasenko). The real horns of Stevie Y's dilemma will draw blood THIS year between Stamkos vs. Kucherov/Killorn. If Kuch's agent lets him sign for anything less than $7mill he should be banished to KHL duty. The offer sheets will drive it, if for no other reason than to blast out a front runner's salary structure.

Of course, there are solid performance reasons as well. Saad makes a useful comparison: 22 yrs old, 23g,29a,+7,11 play off pts. That was worth $6mill, after a panicky trade amid flurries of offer sheet threats. Kucherov at 22 put up 13 more pts (29g/36a), was +38, and had double the playoff pts, all on the 2d line. Stepan (25y/o) just got $6.5m for 10 fewer pts and half the playoff production. Ditto Bobby Ryan's production (at $7.25m), Stastny ($7m), O'Reilly ($7.5m), Bergeron ($6.875m), Eric Staal ($8.25m), Duchene ($6m), and slightly better #'s than even Parise ($7.54m) and Spezza ($7.5m) despite being 10 yrs younger. Tarasenko (23y/o) is really the best comparison for age and accomplishment - $7.5 mill! I won't waste your time doing comparisons on Killorn - he's gone.

So the real question is: Who should you keep between Stamkos and Kucherov? Stamkos now has an alarming pattern of choking in the playoffs. Kucherov was the more pivotal player (you could argue the Finals turned on the play where Crawford pushed him into the goal post in game 5). I think its an easy call: let a rival like Toronto break the bank on Stamkos and lock Kucherov in now for $7m before rivals (&/or another monster season) inflate him higher. This gives you the best chance of holding onto Hedman which is clearly the highest priority of all.

- meta_puck_luck

Perhaps you should wander over to nhlnumbers.com and take a good, hard look before you make that statement. The only true casualty will be Killorn and with any luck Carle.
Kucherovski
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 07.22.2015

Aug 10 @ 5:32 PM ET
Perhaps you should wander over to nhlnumbers.com and take a good, hard look before you make that statement. The only true casualty will be Killorn and with any luck Carle.
- Artyukhin76


Yes please Carle, I think we will need a lot more than luck there.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 10 @ 5:58 PM ET
Yes please Carle, I think we will need a lot more than luck there.
- Kucherovski

Trading Carle at 5.5 is a lot harder than 3.5 (retain 2 in trade). People would be able to absorb that amount much easier.
uf1910
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Excuseville, FL
Joined: 06.29.2011

Aug 10 @ 6:04 PM ET
Trading Carle at 5.5 is a lot harder than 3.5 (retain 2 in trade). People would be able to absorb that amount much easier.
- Artyukhin76


Meh. Only way we retain that much is if we get back a solid return. If we give him away just like we did with Teddy the $5.5 hit doesn't matter. Teddy's hit was $4.5 for a 6-9 pass first winger which given the variance between the 2 positions should have been more difficult to move
Kucherovski
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 07.22.2015

Aug 10 @ 6:13 PM ET
Trading Carle at 5.5 is a lot harder than 3.5 (retain 2 in trade). People would be able to absorb that amount much easier.
- Artyukhin76


I'm afraid if Carle is still here when Hedman negotiations starts they start at $15m per because he is right around 3x the D man.
meta_puck_luck
Location: The D
Joined: 03.05.2014

Aug 10 @ 6:16 PM ET
Why can't they both stay? Chicago has 2 $10m guys and a $6m goalie. Stammer gets $10m - $11m, Kucherov gets $6m - $7m. Hedman gets $7m - $8m. Killorn may be the cap casualty but the way things are shaping up he may be on the 3rd line to start this coming season, a spot hopefully Erne can take. Stralman and Garrison have reasonable hits, Coburn goes away. Carle is the big one, he needs to go to make room for Hedmans raise in my opinion but to your point I don't see how it can't work with Kucherov, Stamkos and Hedman.
- Kucherovski


Chicago has had the benefit of 2 HOF'ers (Hossa and Keith) on long-term cap circumventing deals to help balance the books. But even with that, now the Toews/Kane raises kick in this season, and look what it has cost the Hawks: Saad, Sharp, Oduya, Richards, Vermette and probably Crawford. Yes, there will be similar pain in Tampa, if you dont get in front of it.

We're not just talking Hedman -- Johnson and Palat are also up for deals and they'll want what the first triplet got (might be time to ditch that nickname : ). Letting Stamkos go now will provide the flexibility to navigate such troubled waters. Don't make the Hawks' mistake of thinking you can just dump multiple $2-4mill expendIble guys to get under the cap. The other GMs' subtle collusion not to help out league leaders will leave you twisting in the final month before camp with no choice but to finally hand over your best assets for less value.
stammerman
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 07.05.2013

Aug 10 @ 6:34 PM ET
Chicago has had the benefit of 2 HOF'ers (Hossa and Keith) on long-term cap circumventing deals to help balance the books. But even with that, now the Toews/Kane raises kick in this season, and look what it has cost the Hawks: Saad, Sharp, Oduya, Richards, Vermette and probably Crawford. Yes, there will be similar pain in Tampa, if you dont get in front of it.

We're not just talking Hedman -- Johnson and Palat are also up for deals and they'll want what the first triplet got (might be time to ditch that nickname : ). Letting Stamkos go now will provide the flexibility to navigate such troubled waters. Don't make the Hawks' mistake of thinking you can just dump multiple $2-4mill expendIble guys to get under the cap. The other GMs' subtle collusion not to help out league leaders will leave you twisting in the final month before camp with no choice but to finally hand over your best assets for less value.

- meta_puck_luck


You said, "Stamkos now has an alarming pattern of choking in the playoffs." He has been in three playoffs, his third year as a pro played 18 games with 6 goals, 7 assists played the rest of game 7 against the bruins with a crushed nose. His second time he was barely back from his broken leg but 2g, 2a in 4 games. This year he played 26 games with 7 goals and 11 assists and was playing very physical two way game injured. To say he has a pattern of choking in the playoffs is a complete joke. I'm sorry but that is a idiotic statement. It's clear you think the Lightning can absorb his loss and thats fine, I disagree and think they could not replace his production and the protection he provides the triplets.
meta_puck_luck
Location: The D
Joined: 03.05.2014

Aug 10 @ 7:00 PM ET
You said, "Stamkos now has an alarming pattern of choking in the playoffs." He has been in three playoffs, his third year as a pro played 18 games with 6 goals, 7 assists played the rest of game 7 against the bruins with a crushed nose. His second time he was barely back from his broken leg but 2g, 2a in 4 games. This year he played 26 games with 7 goals and 11 assists and was playing very physical two way game injured. To say he has a pattern of choking in the playoffs is a complete joke. I'm sorry but that is a idiotic statement. It's clear you think the Lightning can absorb his loss and thats fine, I disagree and think they could not replace his production and the protection he provides the triplets.
- stammerman


Respect your loyalty but...

http://youtu.be/GUNvHIpaRss
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Aug 10 @ 7:23 PM ET
Respect your loyalty but...

http://youtu.be/GUNvHIpaRss

- meta_puck_luck


What does that prove?
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