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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: There Is Hope For Chris Kunitz in 2015-16
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jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 9 @ 11:17 PM ET
Thanks for saying that, you get it. Paul Martin hasn't had impressive possession numbers for the past three years, likely for a similar reason - he'll give you the perimeter shot but won't give up the juicy stuff because they're playing conservatively.

I also would rather have an in-your-face, unbreakable beast of a 3rd line center. But there's just not many out there, and there's more than one way to skin a cat. Sutter's method isn't endearing to fans - it's barely noticeable.

Bottom line is, when Sutter's on the ice either even strength or shorthanded, the other team doesn't score very many goals.

That's enough for me in terms of a defensive specialist, not sure what else can be reasonably asked for.

- hardnosed


Paul Martin is a possession God compared to Brandon Sutter. Also, Sutter is very good at goal suppression. HOWEVER, he is abysmal at goal generation. So whatever benefit conferred from his goal suppression is more than offset by the lack of scoring when he is on the ice. Which is producing negative goal differentials overall. Pens can get the same kind of end results out of a cheaper player. That is what everyone is saying.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Jul 9 @ 11:26 PM ET
We arent built to lean on teams, we are built to overwhelm teams with speed and skill. I really didnt see getting boxed out as the problem so much as the opponents double teaming Crosby. We were so injured last year that we had no ability to generate offense, our defense couldnt move the puck, Malkin was injured and his line was terrible, all the Rangers had to do was stop Crosby.

If we are healthy this year we are going to be a nightmare to play against. Kessel adds so much to our team it is rediculous. The way I see it the successful teams in the NHL either go all out on speed/skill or all out on size, we've chosen speed/skill.

- stackthepads


I think a team needs both aspects to play in this version of the NHL. Clearly, the rules have been rolled back. I could very easily see a repeat of the Bruins series with this team. I think we're headed in the right direction, but like I said earlier, I'm not confident in this roster.......as it stands now.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jul 9 @ 11:53 PM ET
I think a team needs both aspects to play in this version of the NHL. Clearly, the rules have been rolled back. I could very easily see a repeat of the Bruins series with this team. I think we're headed in the right direction, but like I said earlier, I'm not confident in this roster.......as it stands now.
- madmike71


IF (the big if) the pens can stay healthy, they will have a very solid forward group.
Perron-Sid-horn
Kunitz-malkin-Kessel
Plot-sutter-dupuis

For the the 4th line, fill it with the best players from training camp. I also would love to see them bring back stemp. The defense is what worries me a bit. I feel that Pouliot will be what makes the defense be either mediocre or offensively threatening
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Jul 10 @ 12:04 AM ET
Paul Martin is a possession God compared to Brandon Sutter.

- jfkst1


Martin is 8th in CF% over the last three seasons among Penguins' defensemen who played 20 games or more. He was .23 percentage points better than Scuderi last year.


Also, Sutter is very good at goal suppression. HOWEVER, he is abysmal at goal generation. So whatever benefit conferred from his goal suppression is more than offset by the lack of scoring when he is on the ice. Which is producing negative goal differentials overall. Pens can get the same kind of end results out of a cheaper player. That is what everyone is saying.

- jfkst1


In terms of 5 on 5 GF, he's right there with Vermette, Fehr, Schenn, Henrique, Stoll, Helm, Nielsen, Berglund, Matthias and ahead of Shaw and Brodziak, etc. And with no offensive talent on his wings.

If improved wingers can net that line 10 more goals throughout the year, that would bump Sutter up to the 5 on 5 GF level of Kesler and Filppula. I don't think 10 more goals with Duper and Perron instead of Spaling and Downie is too big of a stretch, is it?!?
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Jul 10 @ 12:08 AM ET
I think a team needs both aspects to play in this version of the NHL. Clearly, the rules have been rolled back. I could very easily see a repeat of the Bruins series with this team. I think we're headed in the right direction, but like I said earlier, I'm not confident in this roster.......as it stands now.
- madmike71


Yep, have to be multiple philosophically and have some diversity on the roster in terms of strengths and weaknesses.

This team is built for a track meet, which isn't the way this game is called right now.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jul 10 @ 12:25 AM ET
Yep, have to be multiple philosophically and have some diversity on the roster in terms of strengths and weaknesses.

This team is built for a track meet, which isn't the way this game is called right now.

- hardnosed


Not really...Sid, Kessel, and Dupuis are the only fast skaters. Soft does not equal speed.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

Jul 10 @ 12:26 AM ET
Martin is 8th in CF% over the last three seasons among Penguins' defensemen who played 20 games or more. He was .23 percentage points better than Scuderi last year.

In terms of 5 on 5 GF, he's right there with Vermette, Fehr, Schenn, Henrique, Stoll, Helm, Nielsen, Berglund, Matthias and ahead of Shaw and Brodziak, etc. And with no offensive talent on his wings.

If improved wingers can net that line 10 more goals throughout the year, that would bump Sutter up to the 5 on 5 GF level of Kesler and Filppula. I don't think 10 more goals with Duper and Perron instead of Spaling and Downie is too big of a stretch, is it?!?

- hardnosed


Scuderi gets limited sheltered minutes and Martin gets the hardest minutes. I'm also not seeing this discrepancy in the data from last year.
http://www.naturalstattri...p?stype=2&team=PIT&sit=ev
http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

Why don't you look at relative possession numbers and relative goals for percentages? That has "context." Pretty sure every single player you mentioned has better relative numbers than Sutter over the last three years.
http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com/
Sheltering him behind the Penguins strong possession and GF team numbers which pull him up can hide that. You might get 10 more goals if Dupuis and Perron play well. Though if the 3C needs top 6 wingers to be serviceable, it might be time to find a more economical 3C. Being an anchor at $3.3m is a problem.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jul 10 @ 12:26 AM ET
from Yohe:

The Penguins like Oskar Sundqvist so much that they are absolutely open to the idea of him landing a roster spot out of training camp. Should Sundqvist have a strong prospects camp and training camp, there is every reason to believe he will play in Pittsburgh this season.

Sundqvist’s only issue in the eyes of management is that he isn’t a terribly gifted skater. He’s only 21, however, and the Penguins believe that skill will develop reasonably well over time. And they love everything else about his game, especially his versatility. Many in the organization believe he is the likely successor as third-line center, should Brandon Sutter not sign a new deal. Sutter has one year remaining on his deal. He can play any forward position, he’s a strong penalty killer, and he projects as an adequate member of a second power-play unit. They love his frame, too. At 6-3, 190, he’s already big and still filling out. And his hands, according to many people I’ve spoken to in the organization, are better than the team initially thought.

One member of the Penguins’ staff made particular note of Sundqvist’s “high hockey IQ.”
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Jul 10 @ 12:59 AM ET
Scuderi gets limited sheltered minutes and Martin gets the hardest minutes.
- jfkst1


Johnston rolled pairs last year. QoC and ZS% for both players is once again nearly identical.


Why don't you look at relative possession numbers and relative goals for percentages? That has "context." Pretty sure every single player you mentioned has better relative numbers than Sutter over the last three years.

- jfkst1


Because comparing the third line's productivity against that of the Crosby and Malkin lines is silly? Relative statistics will always look lopsided for top-heavy teams like the Penguins, and will be flatlined for balanced teams. Relative statistics would be useful if they compared third lines across the league, as it stands I don't need a chart to tell me that Crosby's line was more productive than Malkin or Sutter's.


Though if the 3C needs top 6 wingers to be serviceable, it might be time to find a more economical 3C. Being an anchor at $3.3m is a problem.

- jfkst1


Plenty of third line wingers around the league the quality of Perron and Dupuis. Both have been 3rd and/or 4th liners in the past. Are Spaling and Downie acceptable third liners?
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Jul 10 @ 1:52 AM ET
Not really...Sid, Kessel, and Dupuis are the only fast skaters. Soft does not equal speed.
- YouMeAndDupuis9


F'n insomnia...

I think he means end to end action and high scoring. Not necessarily how fast the team skates.

If we've learned anything in recent years the game has slowed to a crawl at times. With interference and clutch/grab back in the game, it's not easy to get around it no matter how skilled you are.
nh4442
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: @MyDaddysInTheAF, PA
Joined: 05.28.2010

Jul 10 @ 3:59 AM ET
F'n insomnia...

I think he means end to end action and high scoring. Not necessarily how fast the team skates.

If we've learned anything in recent years the game has slowed to a crawl at times. With interference and clutch/grab back in the game, it's not easy to get around it no matter how skilled you are.

- madmike71

hey im up too... but its 1058am here lol
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Jul 10 @ 4:04 AM ET
hey im up too... but its 1058am here lol
- nh4442



Me too, and its 404 here
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 10 @ 4:45 AM ET
Hey mate, I tought you didn't like name calling!

- so_buzz11


That's allowed but get it right - there's only five heads of each.



Edit: there was a list of the outlawed, not sure 'scoundrel' was on it but I'm all good.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 10 @ 5:18 AM ET
Yep, those 21 goals really weighed the Penguins down last year.



- hardnosed


Can I ask you this, most on here don't like Sutter. You mention his goals which people don't accept due to his 'other' apparent weaknesses. I remember against Tampa when Sutter was used as a shutdown centre against Stamkos & was hugely successful. But it doesn't appear he is being used in any type of role consistently. I mentioned recently that I believe that MJ needs to make that decision on what he wants the 3rd line to do - shut down so reduced scoring, or a scoring line so in turn reduced defence? Do you think he can be used in a shut down role consistently? Or be used as a scoring C on an attacking line?
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Jul 10 @ 5:51 AM ET
Predictable blog. Have you ever tried analyzing a hockey player yourself Ryan?
Pens_Burgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 07.09.2015

Jul 10 @ 8:21 AM ET
To be fair, we all say we want forwards under 25 who make an impact. And there are guys littered around the league, even ones we talk about on here (Nyqvist, Hoffman, etc), that really dont do anything until 24 or 25.

Take Nyqvist for example. He did nothing, even in his stints with the NHL club at 22 and 23 yrs old, until he was 24 and finally broke out.

In summary, we all preach patience with our prospects on here and letting them devlop, yet, I can't believe how many of you are willing to throw away that potential on a 23 year old forward for nothing.

- YouMeAndDupuis9


+1
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

Jul 10 @ 8:24 AM ET
Man if Chicago gets oduya and erhoff I'm going to be pissed. How do they do this poop
Oneonta Penguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.02.2007

Jul 10 @ 8:34 AM ET
Man if Chicago gets oduya and erhoff I'm going to be pissed. How do they do this poop
- dbell646



Because its the best organization in the league and its creative ... people want to play for winners and will take discounts to do it.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Jul 10 @ 8:35 AM ET
Man if Chicago gets oduya and erhoff I'm going to be pissed. How do they do this poop
- dbell646


There is a Sydney rugby league team that has a rich chairman that basically runs the club although it isn't privately owned.

We have a salary cap here as well, but they always seem to get a lot of very good players but stay under the cap. I heard a story that he takes his high profile players - his most expensive players, to play golf regularly. They play skins games & from what I'm told he is a very bad player that plays for a lot of money per hole!!

Any golf courses in or around Chicago?
kgrpitt
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: PA
Joined: 09.08.2010

Jul 10 @ 8:45 AM ET
It wasn't *just* the goals. His goal suppression numbers were fantastic, especially considering his usage.

And he's clutch.

In a season without many bright spots, Sutter scoring 21 with no help should have been celebrated, not maligned. But people had already made up their minds last offseason.

- hardnosed


From pensburgh.com
Sutter, for all that irks the advanced stats crowd, does three things well -- stays healthy, kills penalties and quietly pots more goals than you realize.

He's missed just three games in three seasons with Pittsburgh and topped 20 goals as a third-line player last season. If he can't bring a trade return worth more than just the subtracted cap space, it's worth wondering why he's even discussed as such a prominent trade piece in the first place.


One thing about Pitt fans is if someone with a little clout says a player isn't good some people follow like puppies.

Sutter without wingers put up 21, with wingers maybe he touches 27-30....which would be damn good for 3C.
cap1681
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Verona, PA
Joined: 02.04.2010

Jul 10 @ 9:21 AM ET
From pensburgh.com


One thing about Pitt fans is if someone with a little clout says a player isn't good some people follow like puppies.

Sutter without wingers put up 21, with wingers maybe he touches 27-30....which would be damn good for 3C.

- kgrpitt


The thing that people forget from last year is that Sutter spent a decent amount of time on Malkin's wing. His "20 goals scored as a 3rd line center" is a little skewed....
Pens_Burgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 07.09.2015

Jul 10 @ 9:25 AM ET
The thing that people forget from last year is that Sutter spent a decent amount of time on Malkin's wing. His "20 goals scored as a 3rd line center" is a little skewed....
- cap1681


How many of his goals did he score with Geno?
so_buzz11
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Home, PA
Joined: 05.14.2015

Jul 10 @ 9:27 AM ET
The thing that people forget from last year is that Sutter spent a decent amount of time on Malkin's wing. His "20 goals scored as a 3rd line center" is a little skewed....
- cap1681

You mean Malkin played on Sutter's wing. Cus, Sutter is ONLY a center.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Jul 10 @ 9:27 AM ET
From pensburgh.com


One thing about Pitt fans is if someone with a little clout says a player isn't good some people follow like puppies.

Sutter without wingers put up 21, with wingers maybe he touches 27-30....which would be damn good for 3C.

- kgrpitt


I'm really tired of people accusing those of us who don't like Sutter as being blind Ryan Wilson followers. I joined this site last summer and haven't liked Sutter since he first came to us several years ago. He's a capable perimeter shooter and has good speed which is an asset on the PK and breakaways but besides that his playing style infuriates me. If he's going up against defenders he gets knocked off the puck with ease, especially on the boards and to date I have not seen him develop any form of chemistry with any winger he's been with. Whether that be the wingers he inherited from Jordan Staal who once upon a time were the best third line in hockey, Steve Downie who is a good hockey player if he's not in mongoloid mode, Chris Kunitz or David Perron during their stints on the third line, or Beau Bennett. Revolving doors aren't good for centers consistency, so he has a bit of a pass there, but just from watching I feel like that a lot of it is that he just doesn't play well with others. He doesn't facilitate offense well for his line mates and just isn't a good distributer of the puck. That's why if the third line produces 9/10 times its a Sutter goal. Because if Sutter isn't bringing the puck up, shooting, and burrying it, then the third line isn't doing squat because Sutter can't be the pivot of a unit that is in sync and establishes position in the offensive zone.

Despite this, his goal scoring is undeniable. His play style infuriates me but I really don't mind paing him 3.3 mil AAV. It's a little pricy to me but for a 3C we can do far worse. However, I'm not paying him anywhere north of 3.5 mil, so the 4 mil or so contract he will command is completely out of the question to me. That's why I want him moved, because retaining him is asinine for that price given our cap situation and he's one of the few expendable assets we have that has some value. But go ahead and keep calling my observations mythology, Hardnosed. I'm sure you're tune will change when we extend Sutter to 4.5 mil a year for five years after Dupuis and Kunitx make that line bearable to watch next year and then we're stuck with the same old black hole at an absurd price once Kuni and Duper move on in a year or two.
cap1681
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Verona, PA
Joined: 02.04.2010

Jul 10 @ 9:28 AM ET
How many of his goals did he score with Geno?
- Pens_Burgh


No idea, and i don't feel like going back and reviewing all his goals to see who was on the ice at the time. Just saying that Sutter didn't play 3rd line center the entire season last year, so the whole concept of a 20+ goal scoring 3rd line center is a little skewed.
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