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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Fixing the Roster: Replacing Brandon Sutter Via Unrestricted Free Agency
Author Message
Willaged
Joined: 05.14.2014

May 14 @ 11:42 AM ET
Radulov has another year on his KHL contract and I think he would be a UFA if he wanted to come back to the NHL. Doubt he wants to though. He makes the equivalent of like $9m/yr in the KHL and pays lower taxes than he would with an American team (and much lower than with a Canadian team).
- jfkst1


You're probably right. The lore of winning a "Stanley cup" or playing in the best league in the world doesn't seem to phase the guy. Seems like an all about the Benjamin's type player. Would be a nice add to our top 6 though.
Johnny Wrath
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Draft more Swedes, CA
Joined: 01.09.2009

May 14 @ 11:42 AM ET
1st rounder for Sutter? Not happening. Sutter's value will be deflated in the off season. Getting a first rounder would have been hard enough at the deadline when teams are desperate.

He should have been traded at the 2013 deadline. Pittsburgh should have kept their own pick and shipped out every decent asset over 25. It's sad but it's just the latest example of waiting too long to make a trade and watching the value erode to the point where Pittsburgh is likely going to have to include a Dumoulin or a Pouliot just to make a Sutter deal.

Pittsburgh has in fact waited or ignored trades that they needed to make for so long that to have a decent NHL roster one of Malkin or Crosby is going to need to be traded. It's ironic that failing to trade the now unmovable Kris Letang will likely cost the Penguins Evgeni Malkin.

Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 11:48 AM ET
1st rounder for Sutter? Not happening. Sutter's value will be deflated in the off season. Getting a first rounder would have been hard enough at the deadline when teams are desperate.

He should have been traded at the 2013 deadline. Pittsburgh should have kept their own pick and shipped out every decent asset over 25. It's sad but it's just the latest example of waiting too long to make a trade and watching the value erode to the point where Pittsburgh is likely going to have to include a Dumoulin or a Pouliot just to make a Sutter deal.

Pittsburgh has in fact waited or ignored trades that they needed to make for so long that to have a decent NHL roster one of Malkin or Crosby is going to need to be traded. It's ironic that failing to trade the now unmovable Kris Letang will likely cost the Penguins Evgeni Malkin.

- Johnny Wrath


I want to say that a first was never in the cards for trading Sutter, but then again Chicago gave up a first for Vermette, and he's basically a much older version of Sutter. Sutter's has two seasons back to back where he's tacked on a nice amount of points and "preformed" in the playoffs. The truth is that I don't think anyone actually knows what his trade value is. Is it a first round pick? Probably not, but I wouldn't be uber surprised if we were able to completely fleece someone for Sutter at the draft.
SRam19
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Messier the Greatest Canucks Captain
Joined: 02.12.2015

May 14 @ 11:49 AM ET
I say trade Sutter for some kind of top 4 defenseman and sign Brad Richardson, the guy is a solid 3rd line center
Johnny Wrath
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Draft more Swedes, CA
Joined: 01.09.2009

May 14 @ 11:56 AM ET
I want to say that a first was never in the cards for trading Sutter, but then again Chicago gave up a first for Vermette, and he's basically a much older version of Sutter. Sutter's has two seasons back to back where he's tacked on a nice amount of points and "preformed" in the playoffs. The truth is that I don't think anyone actually knows what his trade value is. Is it a first round pick? Probably not, but I wouldn't be uber surprised if we were able to completely fleece someone for Sutter at the draft.
- Victoro311

The Blackhawks didn't know if they would have Patrick Kane in the lineup when they made that deal. I imagine a team like Minnesota would have been interested in Sutter for some imagined scoring punch to keep up in the arms race. Or let Chicago deal for Sutter for a similar haul. Either way the Penguins lose because they kept Sutter knowing that qualifying for the playoffs was the highest achievement possible for the group.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 12:00 PM ET
The Blackhawks didn't know if they would have Patrick Kane in the lineup when they made that deal. I imagine a team like Minnesota would have been interested in Sutter for some imagined scoring punch to keep up in the arms race. Or let Chicago deal for Sutter for a similar haul. Either way the Penguins lose because they kept Sutter knowing that qualifying for the playoffs was the highest achievement possible for the group.
- Johnny Wrath


Getting a first and Mario Luccia for Sutter would have been dope... Would a gone a long way to restocking our cupboard.
djr5899
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Davie, FL
Joined: 08.03.2006

May 14 @ 12:03 PM ET
First thing I'm doing is tossing all those HERO charts and Corsi/Fenwick crap aside. Given WAAAAAAY too much weight in decision making.

Instead of focusing on HERO charts, look at the other intangibles that matter....PK ability, faceoffs, defensive play on ice. Sutter's even strength GA/60 of 1.53 was 10th in the league for players with over 750 5vs5 minutes (262 total forwards). Soderberg checked in at 23rd with a 1.73, Fehr 63rd at 1.95. Santorelli was in the 200s. Letestu and Cullen were 63rd and 45th if they had enough minutes (both came in under 750).

You also can't forget about faceoffs. Sutter takes over 1000 faceoffs a season, 2nd only to Crosby. He's also a RH faceoff guy, which Crosby and Malkin are not. Sutter traditionally is not great at faceoffs, under 50%, but was 50.6% for the year. Fehr is also RH, took about 500 less draws than Sutter, and was 52%. Soderberg is LH, took 600 less draws than Sutter, and was 48.2%. Santorelli, Cullen, and Letestu had even less draws then Soderberg.

Santorelli, Cullen, and Soderberg didn't have much in the way of PK time this season, not enough to register meaningful stats. Sutter's GA/60 at 4vs5 play was 5.68....better than Fehr's 5.90 and Letestu's 6.03. All of those numbers are mediocre, as the top 40 players with 100 minutes of SH ice time are all under 5.31. The big item here is, you can't just say someone else will pickup Sutter's PK time. Excluding Goc and Winnik, Sutter was 2nd behind only Adams in PK time for forwards. If you shift his minutes to a winger, you then have problems having to shift guys on and off to take faceoffs and win the draws.

This isn't to say I'm a 100% fan of Sutter. He has his warts...I particularly am not impressed with his ability to setup linemates for chances. Of his 12 assists, many of them are 2nd assists or simple passes to the point.

Out of all the players mentioned, Fehr would probably be the best option, as he's RH, good face off numbers on less draws overall, identical points, plays a fair amount on the PK.

The other player I looked at, recent off-ice issues aside, was Jarret Stoll. His GA/60 is good, he's RH, takes over 1000 faceoffs and wins 51%, is a more physical player than any of those mentioned above, plays a good bit on the PK, but has half the points of Sutter/Fehr. His recent drug arrest would also be a red flag, and Ryan would hate him because his HERO chart isn't good.....which is probably because like Sutter, he's expected to be more defensive forward, concentrating more on shutting down other lines than generating shots.
Nucker101
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 09.26.2010

May 14 @ 12:04 PM ET
Canucks offer Chris Tanev(or Nick Bonino) and Chris Higgins for him. Deal?
Johnny Wrath
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Draft more Swedes, CA
Joined: 01.09.2009

May 14 @ 12:04 PM ET
I think the Penguins should avoid buying any players out. The salary cap doesn't matter next season. It probably won't matter in 2016-17. There is no reason to extend the cap problems any further into the future.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 12:15 PM ET
First thing I'm doing is tossing all those HERO charts and Corsi/Fenwick crap aside. Given WAAAAAAY too much weight in decision making.

Instead of focusing on HERO charts, look at the other intangibles that matter....PK ability, faceoffs, defensive play on ice. Sutter's even strength GA/60 of 1.53 was 10th in the league for players with over 750 5vs5 minutes (262 total forwards). Soderberg checked in at 23rd with a 1.73, Fehr 63rd at 1.95. Santorelli was in the 200s. Letestu and Cullen were 63rd and 45th if they had enough minutes (both came in under 750).

You also can't forget about faceoffs. Sutter takes over 1000 faceoffs a season, 2nd only to Crosby. He's also a RH faceoff guy, which Crosby and Malkin are not. Sutter traditionally is not great at faceoffs, under 50%, but was 50.6% for the year. Fehr is also RH, took about 500 less draws than Sutter, and was 52%. Soderberg is LH, took 600 less draws than Sutter, and was 48.2%. Santorelli, Cullen, and Letestu had even less draws then Soderberg.

Santorelli, Cullen, and Soderberg didn't have much in the way of PK time this season, not enough to register meaningful stats. Sutter's GA/60 at 4vs5 play was 5.68....better than Fehr's 5.90 and Letestu's 6.03. All of those numbers are mediocre, as the top 40 players with 100 minutes of SH ice time are all under 5.31. The big item here is, you can't just say someone else will pickup Sutter's PK time. Excluding Goc and Winnik, Sutter was 2nd behind only Adams in PK time for forwards. If you shift his minutes to a winger, you then have problems having to shift guys on and off to take faceoffs and win the draws.

This isn't to say I'm a 100% fan of Sutter. He has his warts...I particularly am not impressed with his ability to setup linemates for chances. Of his 12 assists, many of them are 2nd assists or simple passes to the point.

Out of all the players mentioned, Fehr would probably be the best option, as he's RH, good face off numbers on less draws overall, identical points, plays a fair amount on the PK.

The other player I looked at, recent off-ice issues aside, was Jarret Stoll. His GA/60 is good, he's RH, takes over 1000 faceoffs and wins 51%, is a more physical player than any of those mentioned above, plays a good bit on the PK, but has half the points of Sutter/Fehr. His recent drug arrest would also be a red flag, and Ryan would hate him because his HERO chart isn't good.....which is probably because like Sutter, he's expected to be more defensive forward, concentrating more on shutting down other lines than generating shots.

- djr5899


PK time doesn't mean that they are amazing PKers. Take Adams and Scuderi for instance. They're guys that everyone think are PK specialists because they get a ton of ice time on the kill. Both players do well in that roll more or less, but are completely replaceable. The only reason why they get so much icetime on the PK is because they literally don't do anything else and that's the only way they can contribute to the team. At some point you gotta give poop players ice time in order make sure your good ones don't burn out.

Sutter is a good PKer, but he's 100% replaceable on it. Hell, he was basically replaced by Winnik and Lapierre by the end of the season as the primary PK forwards. Soderberg strikes me as a guy that would do just fine work on the PK. The reason for his minimal usage on the B's PK isn't because he sucks at it. If you suck at PKing you probably suck as a player as well. Its just that they had a far superior option in Selke extraordinaire Patrice Bergeron. Few teams have better options on the PK than him, so that's not a knock against Soderberg. However, Sutter's abysmal play at even strength is a knock against him, and that's something that Sods doesn't have.

Good point about faceoffs though. I agree with you that's a problem, but I think that the upgrade would be such that it wouldn't be that huge.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

May 14 @ 12:19 PM ET
Canucks offer Chris Tanev(or Nick Bonino) and Chris Higgins for him. Deal?
- Nucker101


You forgot the sarcasm font.
dbell646
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.13.2009

May 14 @ 12:24 PM ET
Canucks offer Chris Tanev(or Nick Bonino) and Chris Higgins for him. Deal?
- Nucker101

No kassian?
Johnny Wrath
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Draft more Swedes, CA
Joined: 01.09.2009

May 14 @ 12:29 PM ET
First thing I'm doing is tossing all those HERO charts and Corsi/Fenwick crap aside. Given WAAAAAAY too much weight in decision making.

Instead of focusing on HERO charts, look at the other intangibles that matter....PK ability, faceoffs, defensive play on ice.....

- djr5899

You seem to have a real problem with statistics and formulas. That's okay. There are those who are satisfied to look at the shiny stars and those who desire to develop ways to better understand them.

If you're just 'looking at the players on the ice' and Sutter is supposed to have 'PK ability', why did Daniel Winnik 'look like' he has three times 'the PK ability' of any Penguin?
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 12:33 PM ET
You seem to have a real problem with statistics and formulas. That's okay. There are those who are satisfied to look at the shiny stars and those who desire to develop ways to better understand them.

If you're just 'looking at the players on the ice' and Sutter is supposed to have 'PK ability', why did Daniel Winnik 'look like' he has three times 'the PK ability' of any Penguin?

- Johnny Wrath


He basically made the argument that PK time translates into PK ability. Not sure if someone that holds that belief can be swayed...

If you're gonna use the eye test only and give stats the middle finger, then you gotta use the eye test all around. I don't see how an eye test guy can like Sutter. He flunks it horribly with his lack of physicality, abysmal board play, and pedestrian offensive ability save for his shot on the right side.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

May 14 @ 12:39 PM ET
He basically made the argument that PK time translates into PK ability. Not sure if someone that holds that belief can be swayed...

If you're gonna use the eye test only and give stats the middle finger, then you gotta use the eye test all around. I don't see how an eye test guy can like Sutter. He flunks it horribly with his lack of physicality, abysmal board play, and pedestrian offensive ability save for his shot on the right side.

- Victoro311


You can't apply the "eye-test" to Sutter since he disappears for such long periods of time.
Johnny Wrath
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Draft more Swedes, CA
Joined: 01.09.2009

May 14 @ 12:50 PM ET
He basically made the argument that PK time translates into PK ability. Not sure if someone that holds that belief can be swayed...

If you're gonna use the eye test only and give stats the middle finger, then you gotta use the eye test all around. I don't see how an eye test guy can like Sutter. He flunks it horribly with his lack of physicality, abysmal board play, and pedestrian offensive ability save for his shot on the right side.

- Victoro311

Sutter is miscast as a classic 3C by fans; Sutter is a low-point producing finesse player. If the Penguins wanted to make use of him, they could have played him at 2C and moved Malkin to RW. Spaling or Lapierre could have played 3C just fine. The Penguins are very stubborn about the wrong things.
cap1681
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Verona, PA
Joined: 02.04.2010

May 14 @ 12:51 PM ET
What teams are in the market for a 2/3C? Just wondering who would be a realistic trade partner.
Jordy8
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: windsor, ON
Joined: 06.21.2013

May 14 @ 12:55 PM ET
Sianora sutter. Get w.e. u can for him. Clean the books of him and scudz if at all possible. Bring back lappy for the 4th line. A guy like joe colborne is the best type of 3rd Lind c but he's not available so santorelli or mathias fit the bill if available. A team like the pens cant be paying sutter or Spaling this money.even bring in mclemment or Slater guys who win every face off and can kill penalties. Bottom line is ur bottom lines need to be reliable and consistent. Doesn't matter if they score a beauty every 10 gms when they r falling off the puck half the gm
Johnny Wrath
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Draft more Swedes, CA
Joined: 01.09.2009

May 14 @ 12:59 PM ET
What teams are in the market for a 2/3C? Just wondering who would be a realistic trade partner.
- cap1681

I'm thinking Winnipeg, New Jersey, Washington, Arizona. A team like Montreal could shake their roster up or San Jose. Minnesota. Sutter would be a nice 2C on a team with little market impact and/or championship expectation.
Johnny Wrath
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Draft more Swedes, CA
Joined: 01.09.2009

May 14 @ 1:02 PM ET
Does anyone else care that the Penguins seem to be sticking with Johnston?
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 1:04 PM ET
Sutter is miscast as a classic 3C by fans; Sutter is a low-point producing finesse player. If the Penguins wanted to make use of him, they could have played him at 2C and moved Malkin to RW. Spaling or Lapierre could have played 3C just fine. The Penguins are very stubborn about the wrong things.
- Johnny Wrath


You're right about Sutter just being a mediocre/bad 2C. He can't handle the traditional shut down 3C roll. He's just not physical enough. But no, if the Pens wanted to make use of him they'd put him on Geno's right where he can be set up for his shot, which is the only thing he can do properly. He may be better at faceoffs than Malkin, but he's too awful of a facilitator and an embarrassment on the boards, so I don't want him playing center instead of an all world talent like Malkin. Don't understand why the Pens never tried that out. Whenever they would stick Sutter on Malkin's line they always moved Geno to wing and plugged Flats in at C, which is so close to an intelligent move but still so dumb...

And no, Lapierre could not have played 3C just fine. He's a replacement level player who's only better than Adams because he can get into the opposition's heads. Besides that he is a terrible hockey player. One or two good plays against the Rags doesn't change that. He was still the bad hockey player he's always been in that series.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 14 @ 1:07 PM ET
I'm thinking Winnipeg, New Jersey, Washington, Arizona. A team like Montreal could shake their roster up or San Jose. Minnesota. Sutter would be a nice 2C on a team with little market impact and/or championship expectation.
- Johnny Wrath


Only real player of interest in the Peg is Wheeler, and we can't put together a package for him. Can't imagine that old ass NJ would be willing to trade a young NHL ready forward prospect for Sutter, so they're out. No one in Wash comes to mind besides the obvious young Ruskie that they're never going to trade. I think getting Boedker out of Arizona is our best bet. Getting a draft pick out of Minnesota along with an ok prospect like Luccia also wouldn't be bad. Perhaps Wingles out of San Jose, but I doubt that happens and I'd still rather have Boedker or the draft pick +.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

May 14 @ 1:12 PM ET
What teams are in the market for a 2/3C? Just wondering who would be a realistic trade partner.
- cap1681


Just guessing based on their lineups, ARI, BUF, CAR, COL, NSH, NJD, SJS, WPG are all possibilities.
jfkst1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Clackety Clack
Joined: 02.09.2015

May 14 @ 1:14 PM ET
Does anyone else care that the Penguins seem to be sticking with Johnston?
- Johnny Wrath


i'm fine with Johnston. Rutherford is the one I don't trust.
Dcoms
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Chatham , ON
Joined: 06.22.2014

May 14 @ 1:16 PM ET
1st rounder for Sutter? Not happening. Sutter's value will be deflated in the off season. Getting a first rounder would have been hard enough at the deadline when teams are desperate.

He should have been traded at the 2013 deadline. Pittsburgh should have kept their own pick and shipped out every decent asset over 25. It's sad but it's just the latest example of waiting too long to make a trade and watching the value erode to the point where Pittsburgh is likely going to have to include a Dumoulin or a Pouliot just to make a Sutter deal.

Pittsburgh has in fact waited or ignored trades that they needed to make for so long that to have a decent NHL roster one of Malkin or Crosby is going to need to be traded. It's ironic that failing to trade the now unmovable Kris Letang will likely cost the Penguins Evgeni Malkin.

- Johnny Wrath

So much stupidity in one comment, holy lord:
1)Malkin not getting traded, EVER
2)Letang, not getting traded, still very moveable, coming off a dominant season, just because YOU don't like him doesn't mean everyone else feels that way.
3)I'd rather let Sutter walk for nothing at the end of the year than to HAVE to lose one of Pouliot or Dumoulin, I mean hes not hurting anything staying on the roster till then.
4)Malkin is NOT going to be traded
5)Crosby is definitely not going to be traded
6)Your hatred of Letang makes your opinion impossible to look credible
7)You doom and gloom scorched earth personality must make you difficult to like in person
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