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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: A Deeper Look At The WCF Matchup
Author Message
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 14 @ 7:41 AM ET
lets revisit this after the series. also, stats are what they are, stats, not necessarily facts. you can make them say whatever you want them to. full regular season numbers matter, but the most recent smaller sample sizes matter as well, since this is ultimately a shorter series. its convenient (again) that you decide to use regular season stats since those favor the hawks, and again allow you to use stats however you want to. perry injury and depth should be big in the series, but anything can happen. i dont care that you picked hawks in 6, but using stats to supplement your argument because you pick the ones you want to use is funny.
- flyershockey


Go back and read the blog. 82 games against the whole league is much more representative—and is the only way you can "compare" the two teams— than 9-10 games against two sets of two teams. So you say what you want. Logic is on my side. I didn't conveniently pick anything. I went with what actually makes sense.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

May 14 @ 7:41 AM ET
Hayes!...........the1st round pick we gave up for Vermette............ Indirectly! On to serious crap . Any schedule out yet?
- wonthecup10

Hayes was channeling his inner greed, not unlike Skille and his family where in by he was looking for a guaranteed roster spot. Any athlete who puts himself above the game is not welcome on my hometown teams. IMO the most egregious example of a player putting himself above the team and the league for that matter is this: See Manning, Eli and Manning, Archie....
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

May 14 @ 7:46 AM ET
Anyone else notice the Orpik hit...garbage move by a garbage player.
- DK002

Marginal on leaving the ice to deliver the hit but shoulder sure looked to target the head. Rags couldn't retaliate and kept their cool. Guys discussed during the OT intermission. This guy simply needs to have his clock cleaned during an early RS game next season. Doesn't even have to be by the Rags. What a classless pr!ck.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

May 14 @ 7:48 AM ET
Alzner iced the puck twice in a row. Lose the faceoff and boom its over.

Ovi is what he is, a shooter. Can't blame it on him.

Capitals did a number on the Ranger defence group, they have to be banged up big time. Hope they have to go another 7 games vs Tampa.

- RickJ

As long as he is a team's "star" he will never win the cup. And since he had to shoot off his mouth guaranteeing a game-7 win, I felt compelled to root for the Rags.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 14 @ 8:18 AM ET
lets revisit this after the series. also, stats are what they are, stats, not necessarily facts. you can make them say whatever you want them to. full regular season numbers matter, but the most recent smaller sample sizes matter as well, since this is ultimately a shorter series. its convenient (again) that you decide to use regular season stats since those favor the hawks, and again allow you to use stats however you want to. perry injury and depth should be big in the series, but anything can happen. i dont care that you picked hawks in 6, but using stats to supplement your argument because you pick the ones you want to use is funny.
- flyershockey


Here's another point for Ya, pal. After 6 playoff games against a better team than either the Ducks faced, the statistics said the Wild should have easily beaten the Hawks. And then what happened. You have no rhetorical or logical leg to stand on.
Marlowe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wild Wild West, IL
Joined: 06.29.2014

May 14 @ 8:59 AM ET
Here's another point for Ya, pal. After 6 playoff games against a better team than either the Ducks faced, the statistics said the Wild should have easily beaten the Hawks. And then what happened. You have no rhetorical or logical leg to stand on.
- John Jaeckel

Exactly! You could have looked at strength of competition (advantage Hawks) trend of play series to series (again advantage Hawks) but didn't. We can slice it any way you want to. Still haven't seen an analysis on here that shows statistically where the advantage is on the ducks side -- and JJ is correct, there ARE arguments to be made there. Also, all of us know this is hockey and statistics might not mean anything in the end (I was at game 7 of last years WCF - and that last goal sucked) after all is said and done. But you get your comfort where you can.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

May 14 @ 9:01 AM ET
lets revisit this after the series. also, stats are what they are, stats, not necessarily facts. you can make them say whatever you want them to. full regular season numbers matter, but the most recent smaller sample sizes matter as well, since this is ultimately a shorter series. its convenient (again) that you decide to use regular season stats since those favor the hawks, and again allow you to use stats however you want to. perry injury and depth should be big in the series, but anything can happen. i dont care that you picked hawks in 6, but using stats to supplement your argument because you pick the ones you want to use is funny.
- flyershockey


Ok then I pick the Blackhawks in 6. Why? Because I said so. That a good enough reason to support my pick? Are you convinced by my argument?
Marlowe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wild Wild West, IL
Joined: 06.29.2014

May 14 @ 9:04 AM ET
Ok then I pick the Blackhawks in 6. Why? Because I said so. That a good enough reason to support my pick? Are you convinced by my argument?
- golfbard

Very forceful!!!
howiehandles
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.18.2010

May 14 @ 9:07 AM ET
The message boards here and elsewhere are ablaze with smack talk from Hawk and Duck fans.


Talk about a fan base that doesn't show up 90% of the year. For all the talk of teams relocating, if Bettman didn't want a second team in SC, they'd be shipped out.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

May 14 @ 9:11 AM ET
Very forceful!!!
- Marlowe



GRRRRR!!!!
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 14 @ 9:12 AM ET
but..the way he presents everything is he c ant be wrong
- flyershockey



#butthurt

Wrong.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

May 14 @ 9:14 AM ET
JJ- what's your ECF pick and why?
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 14 @ 9:16 AM ET
"Attached you will find a photo of game used (my game) goalie leg pad signed by all but a few St. Louis Blues players from their trip to Sweden last year. The pad is also signed by HOF Chopper and President JD. All of the signatures were obtained at a team/fan lunch in Sweden prior to the Blues vs. Red Wings games last fall.

Not only is it a great keepsake of our trip but it also solidifies the legendary status of my wife as it was her idea. Of course, the pad had its own suitcase for travel. Part of the fun of this piece is the looks of surprise and comments we received from Blues players, front office staff and fans, especially when they learned it was my wife's idea. One significant member of the Blues organization had my favorite comment, noting that there were not many puck marks on the pad. Luckily I could reply that I only used it for one ice game and the rest were roller hockey games. Roller pucks don't generally leave as many marks, lol. "


- stljam


I used to have a stick signed by the 70-71 Hawks. Long gone now. Ugh. Also had an amazing baseball card collection in the early 70s.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 14 @ 9:17 AM ET
JJ- what's your ECF pick and why?
- golfbard


I'm really not the guy to ask. But something tells me TB. Size/speed, think they're fresher, Rags had a tough round 2.
flyershockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: smh, NC
Joined: 07.09.2006

May 14 @ 9:19 AM ET
Go back and read the blog. 82 games against the whole league is much more representative—and is the only way you can "compare" the two teams— than 9-10 games against two sets of two teams. So you say what you want. Logic is on my side. I didn't conveniently pick anything. I went with what actually makes sense.
- John Jaeckel



you went with a set of circumstances that support what you want the outcome to be. you're essentially saying the ducks have no chance in this series and cant even see it extending to 7 games. thats laughable.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

May 14 @ 9:21 AM ET
As long as he is a team's "star" he will never win the cup. And since he had to shoot off his mouth guaranteeing a game-7 win, I felt compelled to root for the Rags.
- blackhawk24


Ovi didn't really shoot off his mouth, that was a blown out of proportion media thing. What was he supposed to say in a postgame interview in his broken English?

It wasn't Ovi that iced the puck twice in a row in OT or take stupid penalties like Mike Green did.

You want real losers? - try Barry Trotz and Brooks 'I always blow 3-1 series leads' Orpik. Somebody is going to get that jerk eventually.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 14 @ 9:22 AM ET
JJ, not sure why but you don't discuss the impact Kesler will have on Kane as his foil... Nothing Kesler likes more than the playoffs and this challenge should bring the best out of him if he's healthy... Remember he is a Selke trophy winner.

You say Kane is the difference maker, I agree. How well the Kane/ Kesler match up favors either team will play a big part in this series...

I think you need to factor that into your analysis.

- kaptaan


Kesler will be out mostly against Toews, I think.

But here's the thing. Like I said, it's pick your poison.

Everyone talks about Perry and Getzlaf. Hey, if they glue Kesler to Kane, who stops Saad-Toews-Hossa? Because that line might be better (and is definitely as good) as Perry and Getzlaf.

That's the point.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 14 @ 9:23 AM ET
you went with a set of circumstances that support what you want the outcome to be. you're essentially saying the ducks have no chance in this series and cant even see it extending to 7 games. thats laughable.
- flyershockey


No, I didn't. You just refuse to read (or process) the rationale for why I chose those stats, both stated in the blog and on this message board, in like the last ten comments.

Sure the Ducks have a chance and picking it in 6 means it can very easily go to 7. But whatever fits your forced narrative. Project much?

So, dude, no, you're wrong. And laughable is arguing like a 6 year old.

#morebutthurt
Marlowe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wild Wild West, IL
Joined: 06.29.2014

May 14 @ 9:25 AM ET
you went with a set of circumstances that support what you want the outcome to be. you're essentially saying the ducks have no chance in this series and cant even see it extending to 7 games. thats laughable.
- flyershockey

You DO know this is the BLACKHAWKS blog, right? And you've been invited to post some stats that support the Ducks/ make a supported counter argument, right? Sitting back and punching holes (or trying to anyway) is just troublemaking and not condusive to a good discussion. Therefore, respectfully, put up or shut up!!
flyershockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: smh, NC
Joined: 07.09.2006

May 14 @ 9:26 AM ET
No, I didn't. You just refuse to read (or process) the rationale for why I chose those stats, both stated in the blog and on this message board, in like the last ten comments.

Sure the Ducks have a chance and picking it in 6 means it can very easily go to 7. But whatever fits your forced narrative. Project much?

So, dude, no, you're wrong. And laughable is arguing like a 6 year old.

#morebutthurt

- John Jaeckel



why am i b hurt, because i dont agree with your opinion? i think the ducks are a better team than the blackhawks. so do a lot of other people. but all knowing jj picked some stats that favor the blackhawks so they are the better team, end of story. the blackhawks could easily win this series. you giving the ducks 0 chance is absurd.
flyershockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: smh, NC
Joined: 07.09.2006

May 14 @ 9:28 AM ET
You DO know this is the BLACKHAWKS blog, right? And you've been invited to post some stats that support the Ducks/ make a supported counter argument, right? Sitting back and punching holes (or trying to anyway) is just troublemaking and not condusive to a good discussion. Therefore, respectfully, put up or shut up!!
- Marlowe



im not allowed to use playoff stats, they dont matter, only 82 game regular season stats and one game in january. plus, the 52% to 51.6% faceoff advantage is too much to overcome.
Bjm84
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.29.2013

May 14 @ 9:35 AM ET
you went with a set of circumstances that support what you want the outcome to be. you're essentially saying the ducks have no chance in this series and cant even see it extending to 7 games. thats laughable.
- flyershockey


Nope. All JJ is saying is that for the people that like to predict a series using statistics, the Hawks have the bigger advantage given that context.

I would argue even more so that the Ducks had two easier opponents than the Hawks. Again using statistics, The Flames and Jets had a record of 88-56-20 for 196 pts. The Blackhawks opponents, The Wild and Predators, combined for a regular season record of 93-53-18 for 204 pts. Just sayin'.

Hawks in 6 games.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

May 14 @ 9:45 AM ET
I'm really not the guy to ask. But something tells me TB. Size/speed, think they're fresher, Rags had a tough round 2.
- John Jaeckel


Me thinks the same thing though I thought the Caps had the size and speed to the beat the Rangers but they proved they are once again the same ol Caps. I also thought the Caps got fatigued as the season wore on after a physical series with the Isles. The Rangers may also feel the impact of a physical Caps series in the next round and they also may be without Dan Boyle who started to play well after game 1.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

May 14 @ 9:46 AM ET
Marginal on leaving the ice to deliver the hit but shoulder sure looked to target the head. Rags couldn't retaliate and kept their cool. Guys discussed during the OT intermission. This guy simply needs to have his clock cleaned during an early RS game next season. Doesn't even have to be by the Rags. What a classless pr!ck.
- blackhawk24


Boyle keeps his head up, he doesn't get it taken out. Kind of hard to avoid the head when he had it that low.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

May 14 @ 9:47 AM ET
why am i b hurt, because i dont agree with your opinion? i think the ducks are a better team than the blackhawks. so do a lot of other people. but all knowing jj picked some stats that favor the blackhawks so they are the better team, end of story. the blackhawks could easily win this series. you giving the ducks 0 chance is absurd.
- flyershockey



Haha. This is getting fun.

"All-knowing" is presenting a point of view completely unsupported by facts or statistics. Actually that's what you're doing. Do you realize that?

You claim I conveniently teased out the stats that support my argument. This is untrue. Here's why.

1) Playoff stat sample is more than nine times smaller than the regular season sample
2) Playoff stat sample is against two teams, not 30
3) Playoff stat sample is against two separate sets of two separate teams—no comparative value
4) Regular season stats are 82 games against 30 teams that both teams have played
5) Head-to-head speaks for itself
6) The Blackhawks fairly beat or dominate the Ducks across the board in both those categories
7) finally, if play odd stats matter, then why did the Hawks basically destroy Minnesota when they came into Round 2 with much better playoff stats in 6 games (2/3 of what the Ducks played overall) against a better a team than the Ducks played in either series?

Right.

Come back with some facts, please.

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