Who was a roller skater from CA. That just screams playoff hockey player.
- sammy87

My point is, that is on the scouts, not Shero.

Can we blame Shero for that though? Im sure the scouts gave him the big board and he just said...yea well take the best forward available..
- YouMeAndDupuis9

He's in charge of the scouts so yes.

Sure, a workable team built around 87/71 is doable. However, when you have that and some of the other contracts on the books, you need to have young talent that can come in and produce. Ottawa has six of them; so does Tampa ... Calgary has a few and so on. This organization is very flawed. While Ottawa has Stone, Hoffman, Zabiniajhad, Chiasson, maybe Lazar, maybe Pageau ... Turris is still young ... we have Beau Bennett to show. That is the problem.

Hoff won't play another game for the Pens IMO. This year has cost him serious $$$ on the free agent market as far as his injuries. Even if he wanted to take a major cut to come back, I'd seriously pass.
- Oneonta Penguin

They've got around 15 mil in players injured or sick.....and they're throwing away another 13 mil on Kuni, Perron, Spaling and Scuds. I hate Sutter too at another 3.3. Money isn't the problem, poor drafting and personnel choices is....

What channel? I assume its local only, which I am not..
- YouMeAndDupuis9

Yeah, it's local. WPMY-tv.

They've got around 15 mil in players injured or sick.....and they're throwing away another 13 mil on Kuni, Perron, Spaling and Scuds. I hate Sutter too at another 3.3. Money isn't the problem, poor drafting and personnel choices is....
- madmike71

Pens FB page has a great shot of Scuds with a stick in his eye.....no call.
- sammy87

You mean when he was hit by the follow through on Hayes shot which by definition is not a penalty?

You mean when he was hit by the follow through on Hayes shot which by definition is not a penalty?
- xcheckmajor

It's not, I agree. The interference and holding that was a penalty in the first, wasn't called in the third. Lucky for you guys....

Stafford scored for the Jets...LOL

You mean when he was hit by the follow through on Hayes shot which by definition is not a penalty?
- xcheckmajor

Yes forgot about the follow through rule. Had it been a penalty, Rags would have scored twice.

I thought the Rangers caught us with that quick goal.
If you remove the rest of the 1st, which the refs did then they had a system that looked pretty godd against the Rangers attack.

The Rangers had some chances in the 2nd and 3rd but most of it was from the outside, Fleury came up with the saves he needed to make but there weren't many or really any 10 bell saves.

I predict that we are going to see a meltdown from Lundqvist with all the traffic we are putting to the net.

We're taking this series.
- stackthepads

The King is going to suffer from a Horny Lappy & be pulled!

We ARE getting this series done - let's (frank)ing go Pens!!!!

The King is going to suffer from a Horny Lappy & be pulled!

We ARE getting this series done - let's (frank)ing go Pens!!!!
- Aussiepenguin

sure he is

Ah another rube that doesnt understand how lopsided it is to have 2 elite centers and scrubs on the wing, kudos brother
- BillKessel

+1

The King is going to suffer from a Horny Lappy & be pulled!

We ARE getting this series done - let's (frank)ing go Pens!!!!
- Aussiepenguin

I would love those two to run the King and run him hard. Make it hurt too.

I would love those two to run the King and run him hard. Make it hurt too.
- Oneonta Penguin

the rags really werent dirty tonight.

the reffing sucks. but thats not really their fault. i dont know. im frustrated too, but id hope everyone can stay above the cheap poop.

I know RW was one of the few remaining supporters....is there anyone left believing Kunitz is still an NHL caliber hockey player? (meaning realistically...dont say he would be fine if he was a 4th liner maker $700k)

I know RW was one of the few remaining supporters....is there anyone left believing Kunitz is still an NHL caliber hockey player? (meaning realistically...dont say he would be fine if he was a 4th liner maker $700k)
- YouMeAndDupuis9

No. He's fried. Hands are gone. Can't shoot, pass or receive a pass....other than that he's great.

40 seemed more effective than 87 tonight. Loved the play in front on the goal and he sweetened it by getting Hank to whine to the refs.

I have to admit, I would trade our roster for Tampa's and not think twice. They are much closer to winning the Cup than we are.
- Oneonta Penguin

This is comical. The lightning endured bad years until last season. 2010 was a surprise that probably shouldn't have been. The lightning are good now because they were bad for some time. They were not a team continually making the playoffs. And their scouts have done am adamant job scouting talent in the middle and late rounds. BUT I still do not think they are a team builthe for the Playoffs. They play a cute style of hockey and that poop doesn't cut it. They had 40 something shots on goal bit a majority of them were from the outside and they had no one in the slot to pick up the garbage. Until they further flesh out their roster with playoff type players.. I don't see them going far And I enjoy watching them play.. but they don't have those players that really dig in and play that playoff style of hockey in my opinion. I would not trade the penguins roster for the lightnings, ever. people who think the penguins are far from a Stanley Cup honestly blow my mind. They are not nearly as far they make them out to be. Sid and Geno will always give the pens a chance. It's up to the GM to wisely fill out the rest of the roster... something they've failed at recently but it is fixable.

He is more cursed then injury prone
- stackthepads

Yeah, he definitely isn't like Sammy Salo, Beau Bennett, Ales Hemsky or Carlo Coliacovo who all seem to get hurt if someone in the 7th row sneezes.

Well, the second goal is on the refs. Should have been coincidental roughing calls. How that never came about is mind boggling.
- Oneonta Penguin

I had the pleasure of watching the game via the CBC Hockey Night in Canada broadcast. About that play, they said "The refs are getting in the way of the game here... Dominic Moore had the free hand up, and then after the free hand is up Comeau just battles for the puck... Comeau's saying 'who's holding who?', he's got a case." I watched the replay a couple of times as well. It really was a terrible call.

What's your thoughts on;

1. possession stats if they stay the same will they impact the series for the Pens (more a question for our stats gurus on here & not everyone as a lot hate the thought)? If they do how big of an advantage are they? Let's get some stats backed predictions people (those that adhere to Analytics anyway)?

2. The King, is he at risk of being benched due to Talbot being in form - dare I say better form than the King?
- Aussiepenguin

Game 1 was process + PDO (i.e. for the NYR). Unfortunately, the Pens found themselves on the short-end of both. NYR dominated possession, whether you measure it by Corsi, Fenwick, or Shot-for totals; Respectively, 52-48, 60-40, and 60-40. Although NYR’s shooting percentage was lower than their season average (5.3 vs. 9.6) #30’s save percentage (.960) allowed NYR to maintain their high PDO (101.3). Like to take a Mulligan on P1.

Using 2014/15 season stats (averages, trend from last 16gms) I constructed a few different predictive/ probabilistic models for the playoffs. For the most part, my target variable was either goals scored and/or win. I threw in NYR match-up data as well, and simulated the series 20k times. The best I could do was Pens in 6 (16.4%). Looking at the spread of probabilities across all best of 7 scenarios, NYR wins roughly 55-45. I didn't incorporate roster/ injuries into the mix.

Moreover, in terms of feature importance, (i.e. for win outcome Pgh) 5v5Close On-ice unblocked shooting percentage, 5v5Close scoring chances for%, 5v5Close Hit%, Face-off%, PDO, and 5v5Close Fen% are the variables that explain the most variance in winning. I wasn’t expecting percentage of Hits (for) to be a relevant feature, but nonetheless, I found some of in-game commentary about PGH getting to work down low/ dump-chase and being physical rather intriguing. FO% means possession; starting with the puck, rather than chasing it. Scoring chances for% and Fen% are proxy measures for possession. Unblocked shooting percentage is also possession, along with PDO. It appears, statistically, for PGH to win, the team needs to SMART physically, dominate possession and throw tons of rubber at #30. PDO displays an inverse relationship AND something has to give.

Generally speaking, the team that maintains the larger % of possession --> % of shot attempts --> shots on goal --> % goals (obvious) will continue to win. SOG's can be prevented - despite possession. Watch NYR's commitment to collapse 4 or 5 guys in the slot AND block shot after shot.

After 1 bad rebound/goal, kudos to #29 for manning the fort.

I know RW was one of the few remaining supporters....is there anyone left believing Kunitz is still an NHL caliber hockey player? (meaning realistically...dont say he would be fine if he was a 4th liner maker $700k)
- YouMeAndDupuis9

there comes a time when the pace of the game moves faster than the player and unfortunately, there is no where for them to hide.. . a sheet of ice can seem like a very slow and confusing place.

#4 #7 #14 #27 #40 #16

Game 1 was process + PDO (i.e. for the NYR). Unfortunately, the Pens found themselves on the short-end of both. NYR dominated possession, whether you measure it by Corsi, Fenwick, or Shot-for totals; Respectively, 52-48, 60-40, and 60-40. Although NYR’s shooting percentage was lower than their season average (5.3 vs. 9.6) #30’s save percentage (.960) allowed NYR to maintain their high PDO (101.3). Like to take a Mulligan on P1.

Using 2014/15 season stats (averages, trend from last 16gms) I constructed a few different predictive/ probabilistic models for the playoffs. For the most part, my target variable was either goals scored and/or win. I threw in NYR match-up data as well, and simulated the series 20k times. The best I could do was Pens in 6 (16.4%). Looking at the spread of probabilities across all best of 7 scenarios, NYR wins roughly 55-45. I didn't incorporate roster/ injuries into the mix.

Moreover, in terms of feature importance, (i.e. for win outcome Pgh) 5v5Close On-ice unblocked shooting percentage, 5v5Close scoring chances for%, 5v5Close Hit%, Face-off%, PDO, and 5v5Close Fen% are the variables that explain the most variance in winning. I wasn’t expecting percentage of Hits (for) to be a relevant feature, but nonetheless, I found some of in-game commentary about PGH getting to work down low/ dump-chase and being physical rather intriguing. FO% means possession; starting with the puck, rather than chasing it. Scoring chances for% and Fen% are proxy measures for possession. Unblocked shooting percentage is also possession, along with PDO. It appears, statistically, for PGH to win, the team needs to SMART physically, dominate possession and throw tons of rubber at #30. PDO displays an inverse relationship AND something has to give.

Generally speaking, the team that maintains the larger % of possession --> % of shot attempts --> shots on goal --> % goals (obvious) will continue to win. SOG's can be prevented - despite possession. Watch NYR's commitment to collapse 4 or 5 guys in the slot AND block shot after shot.

After 1 bad rebound/goal, kudos to #29 for manning the fort.
- out_of_market

So a couple of things.

Possession numbers favoured the Rags rather than the Pens which would go against the numbers leading into the game. Their PDO stayed above 100 due to the King holding out letting in 1 goal. Rags shooting % was down.

So if we look at a couple reasons potentially why we have those results - Rags didn't score straight away & therefore held possession longer than if they did, Rags made a conscious effort to control possession which it appears they did. Those actions provide possible reasons but again with analytical data I'm just matching 'finished results' with data & trying to explain the outcomes. Now that PDO can go down the toilet if the King wobbles & if that happens with a low shooting % the Rags are in deep poop. Can they continue to block shots like today? How long before a bone is broken if they try?

For the Pens, they took 4 penalties in the first period - possession would flow with the team on PP, also shots on goal which it did resulting in 2-0 Rags. Will there be 4-0 penalty count in the next few games? From that point where all stats & 'chance' - being penalties due to the fact you cannot say when there will be penalties called, cooled for the Rags & the Pens got back in the game even without possession dominance. The Pens get that first period right & the game if played the same is theirs every time.

Base you tests on data that's been & you can identify what would have won or lost games already played. You can say or I can say with confidence using this analytical data of today, will not give you an indication of how a game 'will' be played & you can speculate without confidence.

How will Flower play how will Lundqvist play - nobody can tell. If the Rags & the Pens to a lesser extent, rely on the goalie then that's a recipe for disaster. I believe that the Pens can play much better with less than the Rags can, & with that frustration will grow then pressure which are all ingredients for defeat.

I believe that after today - which mind you if you compare the teams the Rangers are by far superior, that the Pens only need disciplined play & they will succeed if they can play as good or better than the 2nd & 3rd periods.

Not sure why you mentioned me taking a mulligan on P1. I asked a question based on current data which had the Pens with better possession numbers??

I would love those two to run the King and run him hard. Make it hurt too.
- Oneonta Penguin

So if I'm reading this right, you guys want the Pens to play dirty, and then they do and take a lot of stupid penalties, and then you guys complain about the refs. Wtf?

So if I'm reading this right, you guys want the Pens to play dirty, and then they do and take a lot of stupid penalties, and then you guys complain about the refs. Wtf?
- rangerdanger94

Welcome to our board where we are angels and the rest of the league is out to get us