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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Looking To Play Spoiler In Battle Of Ontario; Leafs vs Senators
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jribout
Season Ticket Holder
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 01.24.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:31 PM ET
And there's one Nash compared to dozens of Allen Iversons. I'm not saying Americans can't be good players, I'm saying look at the proof in the pudding. Look at the American born NCAA trained top picks and look how most of them never lived up to the hype of the scouts. Especially defencemen like Erik and Jack Johnson or goalies like DiPietro. If people want to compare Hanifin to Doughty, then show me Hanifin play in the OHL and prove it.
- JohnFergusonJr


So you would not have taken Wigggins 1st overall this year then?
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:32 PM ET
kinda like German, Spanish, Dutch, French etc, are better soccer players than the English

edit.. and afghanistan is also better at cricket.

- Arctic_AARDVARK


Again, you're talking about a collective. Germany has the best current TEAM, but the best individual players are a Portuguese guy and an Argentinian.

Drafting is about individuals, not collectives.
orienbrady22
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Windsor, ON
Joined: 02.14.2013

Mar 28 @ 5:35 PM ET
And thank you for backing up my point. Of course Canadians are better overall, both historically and currently, but to look at that rather than the individual is completely asinine.
- lumlums



Didn't mean to back your point up...

Point was that Hanafin is coming from an American League, were as other potential options are coming from CHL. I think we got to go Strome or Marner. Defense is always nice and i think their will be some good ones left when we have Nashvilles Pick. This is probably the best pick we have had in a long time let's not (frank) it up with a high risk American defense man
JohnFergusonJr
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I'd be happy with Che Guevara; hero of the Cuban revolution. - Canada Cup aka AOCC
Joined: 01.14.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:35 PM ET
For a start, Goalies are voodoo, wizardry and bullpoop. They're almost impossible to predict regardless of where they're from, or when they're picked.

For both Jack and Erik Johnson, there was negative reports regarding positioning and reading of the game (and a little knock on skating for EJ), which has translated into them having some problems in these areas in the NHL. For Hanifin these are listed as some of his major assets, and can really help to compensate for other flaws. Infact, I can't seem to find any flaws listed on the scouting reports for him. Again, I understand that he has bust potential relative to his position, but so does Strome (average skater) and Marner (undersized).

- lumlums


Defencemen aren't easy either, especially from the NCAA. How many top pick NCAA defenders have lived up to the hype? I can't think of many. Suter at 7th overall, not 3rd though. That's revisionist history too. A lot of people were saying how Erik was going to be the next Pronger in St. Louis. Why? Because that's the draft hype they like to create.
KesselRules
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The Koolaid tells me Marner > Eichel ~ twiztedmike
Joined: 12.31.2012

Mar 28 @ 5:35 PM ET
Do you know what league produces the most hockey players in the NHL right now? It's the NCAA at 31%!!! OHL is at 22% and the total of OHL, WHL, and QMJHL is 52%.

Just thought I'd put these numbers out there.
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Mar 28 @ 5:35 PM ET
Obviously it matters, but one of the main reported strengths for Hanifin is his hockey sense. I may be wrong obviously, this is just my opinion afterall. Would you not say from your chosen screen name that sometimes great players come from elsewhere...???
- lumlums


certainly.

but if I'm the Leafs GM I need to hit a home run with this pick - can't and don't want to afford the Oilers approach ... because likely not picking first overall where the decision is made for me.

if I have the choice I take either Marner or Strome ahead of Hanifan - not because one or the other is Canadian, AMerican or chinese. There are no certainties in the draft - there are too many instances of guys taken high that end up as mediocre players - and guys taken late who bloom late.

but I would suspect that even the most ardent NCAA fan would have to acknowledge that CHL produced players are testing earlier, more often and more consistently than a one year NCAA wonder.

and in the Leafs particular case... do they want to risk that high a pick on a guy who they can't even be sure will entertain coming the NHL in the next two or three years?
The Shrike
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto
Joined: 11.17.2007

Mar 28 @ 5:36 PM ET
Org makes pick based on its info/analysis on who is best player on the board w/out looking to fill a specific positional need.
- Canada Cup


True to a point, but if your pick comes up, and roughly equivalent BPA's like Hanifin, Strome, and Marner are available, and your organization is light in D prospects, and heavy in forwards, you take Hanifin.

On the other hand, if you win the lottery, you say the heck with your organizational needs, because McDavid has such a high ceiling that you can't say no to having him in your organization.
bloatedmosquito
Vancouver Canucks
Location: I’m a dose of reality in this cesspool of glee
Joined: 10.22.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:36 PM ET
Is it going to be a poop show in here or has Senator fan dismissed leaf fan as their poor, retarded Provincial cousins?
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Mar 28 @ 5:37 PM ET
Defencemen aren't easy either, especially from the NCAA. How many top pick NCAA defenders have lived up to the hype? I can't think of many. Suter at 7th overall, not 3rd though. That's revisionist history too. A lot of people were saying how Erik was going to be the next Pronger in St. Louis. Why? Because that's the draft hype they like to create.
- JohnFergusonJr


exactly... the two most impactful words here.... "draft hype"...

and if there's anything that the American media machine can generate its hype....

any one remember when Landon Donovan was going to win the world cup for the US...
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Mar 28 @ 5:38 PM ET
Is it going to be a poop show in here or has Senator fan dismissed leaf fan as their poor, retarded Provincial cousins?
- bloatedmosquito


no poop show... less attraction for annoying insects that way.
The Shrike
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto
Joined: 11.17.2007

Mar 28 @ 5:39 PM ET
Is it going to be a poop show in here or has Senator fan dismissed leaf fan as their poor, retarded Provincial cousins?
- bloatedmosquito


We're cheering for the same team tonight, so it's all good.
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Mar 28 @ 5:40 PM ET
Do you know what league produces the most hockey players in the NHL right now? It's the NCAA at 31%!!! OHL is at 22% and the total of OHL, WHL, and QMJHL is 52%.

Just thought I'd put these numbers out there.

- KesselRules


can't compare NCAA against the three separately. CHL is 52%.... and probably a better comparison is where the players end up in their careers... because comparing most NCAA players against CHL players is not on a equal footing due to draft elligibility at age 18.
JohnFergusonJr
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I'd be happy with Che Guevara; hero of the Cuban revolution. - Canada Cup aka AOCC
Joined: 01.14.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:42 PM ET
So you would not have taken Wigggins 1st overall this year then?
- jribout


He went through the NCAA which is the best league for basketball so it's different. But if was playing in the CIS instead of the NCAA, probably not. Like when the Raptors passed on Aldridge to take Bargnani.
bloatedmosquito
Vancouver Canucks
Location: I’m a dose of reality in this cesspool of glee
Joined: 10.22.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:42 PM ET
no poop show... less attraction for annoying insects that way.
- BorjeFan4Ever


bloatedmosquito
Vancouver Canucks
Location: I’m a dose of reality in this cesspool of glee
Joined: 10.22.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:42 PM ET
We're cheering for the same team tonight, so it's all good.
- The Shrike


Funny. I never thought of it that way...
JohnFergusonJr
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I'd be happy with Che Guevara; hero of the Cuban revolution. - Canada Cup aka AOCC
Joined: 01.14.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:43 PM ET
Do you know what league produces the most hockey players in the NHL right now? It's the NCAA at 31%!!! OHL is at 22% and the total of OHL, WHL, and QMJHL is 52%.

Just thought I'd put these numbers out there.

- KesselRules


NCAA has a lot of conferences and divisions so you have to compare it to the CHL.

Also, look at the top players in the NHL. The NCAA is good at making Bozaks.
optimus-reim
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 06.21.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:43 PM ET
like the idea... but seriously that kid needs to change his name.... Pilon - simply unbelieveable.
- BorjeFan4Ever


Hard hitting, defense first and finding his offensive game too. Anything but a pylon.
I think Dallas would be interested in this. Basically change Hemsky to Kadri, helps the Tank and Dallas gets more C depth, as well they can resign Kadri at 4.5-5M which is only 0.5-1M off of what Hemsky is making. Maybe Hemsky can gain some interest on the 1st line next year and get us a 2nd/prospects from a contending teams.
If they are in the top 10 I'd say they won't do it but that's okay because anywhere from 11-14 would still get us a real impact player down the line (Konecny , Rantanen, Merkley, Kylington or Harkins )
KesselRules
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The Koolaid tells me Marner > Eichel ~ twiztedmike
Joined: 12.31.2012

Mar 28 @ 5:45 PM ET
can't compare NCAA against the three separately. CHL is 52%.... and probably a better comparison is where the players end up in their careers... because comparing most NCAA players against CHL players is not on a equal footing due to draft elligibility at age 18.
- BorjeFan4Ever




Note the NHL leaders area. They seem to be ending up fine. Also take a look at the rookies and strong increase of NCAA players in the last 5 years alone.
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:48 PM ET
certainly.

but if I'm the Leafs GM I need to hit a home run with this pick - can't and don't want to afford the Oilers approach ... because likely not picking first overall where the decision is made for me.

if I have the choice I take either Marner or Strome ahead of Hanifan - not because one or the other is Canadian, AMerican or chinese. There are no certainties in the draft - there are too many instances of guys taken high that end up as mediocre players - and guys taken late who bloom late.

but I would suspect that even the most ardent NCAA fan would have to acknowledge that CHL produced players are testing earlier, more often and more consistently than a one year NCAA wonder.

and in the Leafs particular case... do they want to risk that high a pick on a guy who they can't even be sure will entertain coming the NHL in the next two or three years?

- BorjeFan4Ever


Whoever they pick (unless it's McJesus) I don't want them even coming near this team for at least two or three years regardless.

CHL vs NCAA stand the test of time, but there's been more of them also. If you have two players who are comparable (size, position, weight, speed, Hockey IQ) and one is from NCAA and the other from CHL, you take the guy from CHL. Hanifin vs. Strome/Marner comes down partly to what premium you put on good defence versus good offense, and how likely you think each are to become elite.

I REALLY like Strome (especially) and Marner, but Hanifin really looks like being a complete player with no obvious flaws to his game unlike E. Johnson (positioning, footspeed) and J. Johnson (positioning, reading the game).
KesselRules
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The Koolaid tells me Marner > Eichel ~ twiztedmike
Joined: 12.31.2012

Mar 28 @ 5:49 PM ET
NCAA has a lot of conferences and divisions so you have to compare it to the CHL.

Also, look at the top players in the NHL. The NCAA is good at making Bozaks.

- JohnFergusonJr


Didn't know Joe Pavelski, Max Pacioretty, Phil Kessel, Chris Kunitz and Patrick Sharp are Bozaks. Good to know.

Check the infographic.
JohnFergusonJr
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I'd be happy with Che Guevara; hero of the Cuban revolution. - Canada Cup aka AOCC
Joined: 01.14.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:50 PM ET
Didn't know Joe Pavelski, Max Pacioretty, Phil Kessel, Chris Kunitz and Patrick Sharp are Bozaks. Good to know.

Check the infographic.

- KesselRules


None of those guys are top 3 picks. And Kessel went 5th but he was hyped as the American Crosby. Still waiting for him to score 40 much less be Crosby.

Name me the NCAA graduate who led the NHL in scoring in the past 20 years and compare the number of CHL graduates to lead the NHL in scoring or points or anything.
KesselRules
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The Koolaid tells me Marner > Eichel ~ twiztedmike
Joined: 12.31.2012

Mar 28 @ 5:51 PM ET
None of those guys are top 3 picks. And Kessel went 5th but he was hyped as the American Crosby. Still waiting for him to score 40 much less be Crosby.

Name me the NCAA graduate who led the NHL in scoring in the past 20 years and compare the number of CHL graduates to lead the NHL in scoring or points or anything.

- JohnFergusonJr


You're on drugs. Joe Pavelski is one of the best two way Centres in the league.
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Mar 28 @ 5:54 PM ET


Note the NHL leaders area. They seem to be ending up fine. Also take a look at the rookies and strong increase of NCAA players in the last 5 years alone.

- KesselRules


I completely understand what you are trying to show here... I'm "bathed" in the wonderfulness of the NCAA every day where I live... and you can call me biased or olde fashioned or whatever you like...

NCAA rookies are on average older than CHL graduates - which is isn't a bad thing - it is just a different thing. The goalie stats speak to this in volumes... because in general goalies take longer to incubate ...

here's the question that sums the entire marketing hype up for me....

who wins the Calder this year "Johnny Hockey or Ekblad"? well... for me its pretty simple... I'd rather have the guy who's stepped in from junior without missing a beat... over the guy who's three or four years older - AND should be more mature and ready.

JohnFergusonJr
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I'd be happy with Che Guevara; hero of the Cuban revolution. - Canada Cup aka AOCC
Joined: 01.14.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:56 PM ET
You're on drugs. Joe Pavelski is one of the best two way Centres in the league.
- KesselRules


He was a 7th round pick. In 2003, if you took him 2nd overall instead of Eric Staal, you'd be fired on the spot.
optimus-reim
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 06.21.2011

Mar 28 @ 5:56 PM ET
To Calgary
2015 1st round pick (Nashville)
Kadri

To Toronto

2015 1st round pick (Calgary)
2015 3rd (Washington)
2015 2nd (Washington)

Gives Calgary upgrade in the top six and fits with the rebuild (only 24). Upgrades the Nashville 1st to a mid 1st round pick, and gives us a late 2nd round and late 3rd round pick. Calgary trades down ten positions, gives up some later picks and gets a young top six centre.
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