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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Re-arranging Deck Chairs Versus Changing Course
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TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Mar 10 @ 11:37 AM ET
Completely agree. It starts with the D, and I will say this, any time Johnny Oduya wants to come back, and assuming he can get in some kind of groove (as he has at times the last few years) that will have a huge domino effect not just on the blue line but the entire team.

There is a problem upfront but with the addition of Vermette, C is not really it. The problem is they have two kinds of forwards: waif-like skill players, or Guys with some size who tend to be more skill players (Hossa, Saad). And they have a few "physical" players without skill or without motivation (Bickell).

They need more big guys who can and will play and do some things with the puck. Or they need Bickell and Shaw to really step up come playoff time.

- John Jaeckel


Yes, it starts with the D. The Hawks offense is generated from the back end. It is based on a style of play that requires quick transition and passing from the back end. If that does not exist, the offense suffers, or is inconsistent as can be seen this year.

The problem is that with the way the D is currently constructed is that you have only 1 defensive pairing at any one time that can play the way the offense is designed. By splitting the pairs because of injury and/or to protect #5/#32 in the lineup, you have castrated the offensive flow. Keith is all over the place trying to cover for whichever one he is paired with, and the biggest hurdle is just clearing the D zone, forget about transitioning to offense.

Rosy is just old, slow and unable to compete full time anymore. Runblad is just, just, just........Bad. I watched him turn minimum 5 pucks over to EDM with no one pressuring him and clear passing lanes. His skating, angles and reading of play is even worse. For anyone saying a #6 defenseman does not make a difference, I would normally agree, except when you pair him with your #1 d-man, and effectively turn him into a forth defenseman.

The Hawks need TVR or Odyua back and ready to play. Even not 100% they are a better option that #5, and allow Rosi to play his 10 effective minutes a night in protected matchups with the 3rd pairing.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Mar 10 @ 11:40 AM ET
Disagree

The Hawks D has been atrocious at holding the blue line and exiting the zone. The system the Hawks play is based on moving the puck quickly and efficiently from the back end to the forwards and creating neutral zone turnovers. Hasn't happened with any consistency all season. If they continue to yield the neutral zone and give the puck away they're gonna have a bad time.

Keith is the only reason Rundblad was holding water and now he has to prop up Rozy. Here's a brain buster: did Leddy look out of place because he was covering for Rozy or did Rozy look decent because Leddy was covering his ass? Hmmmmmmmm.

They have gotten absolutely SHELLED this year. The shots against per 60 at evens is disgusting and the worst this team has been since Kane and Toews became NHL players. Crawford has had a stellar season and the only reason the GAA is respectable at this point.

This team has 4 natural centers (5 if you count Sharp! 6 if you count T2!). I don't think that position is a problem right now. Maybe there are some system or line up changes that can be made to utilize those players more efficiently but otherwise they are who they are. Hopefully Oduya can contribute when he comes back, KT finds his legs and Crawford continues to play at a very high level.

- fattybeef


the trio of netminders is the ONLY reason this team is not south of the wild and hanging with the kings...how many shorties have they saved, how many odd mans have they stoned, pk save % is outstanding...

even with kane they were averaging 2.5 goals per gme since 1/1 and now its 1.9 in gmes since he got jammed and some how got 7 of 10 points
TheTrob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oak Park, IL
Joined: 04.14.2010

Mar 10 @ 11:41 AM ET
Agreed....but if Bowman can trade Campbell and that monster contract somebody will take Bickell.

Best thing for the Hawks Bickell has a nice playoff season. Will be a fresh reminder for teams as what he could be, and then you dump him. Sell high.

- SteveRain


Bickell will only be a dump, probably regardless of his playoff stats. Other teams at this point know what he is/isn't. Stan will be lucky to get a 3rd-5th round pick for him, and should be happy for that in return for the cap space.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Mar 10 @ 11:44 AM ET
Agreed....but if Bowman can trade Campbell and that monster contract somebody will take Bickell.

Best thing for the Hawks Bickell has a nice playoff season. Will be a fresh reminder for teams as what he could be, and then you dump him. Sell high.

- SteveRain



The only way Stan could trade Campbell was by taking another bad contract back, he doesn't have that luxury this time around. Bickell is the obvious choice to go first during the next salary cap purge, but I don't see too many (if any) teams lining up for Bickell.
Vark37
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Park Ridge, IL
Joined: 01.08.2014

Mar 10 @ 11:47 AM ET
Looks like TVR may get the nod this weekend to play fro the Rock. Any opinions on the estimated timeline for him to possibly make a Hawks call up. Assuming he has not regressed from his play earlier in the year.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Mar 10 @ 11:47 AM ET
Yes, it starts with the D. The Hawks offense is generated from the back end. It is based on a style of play that requires quick transition and passing from the back end. If that does not exist, the offense suffers, or is inconsistent as can be seen this year.

The problem is that with the way the D is currently constructed is that you have only 1 defensive pairing at any one time that can play the way the offense is designed. By splitting the pairs because of injury and/or to protect #5/#32 in the lineup, you have castrated the offensive flow. Keith is all over the place trying to cover for whichever one he is paired with, and the biggest hurdle is just clearing the D zone, forget about transitioning to offense.

Rosy is just old, slow and unable to compete full time anymore. Runblad is just, just, just........Bad. I watched him turn minimum 5 pucks over to EDM with no one pressuring him and clear passing lanes. His skating, angles and reading of play is even worse. For anyone saying a #6 defenseman does not make a difference, I would normally agree, except when you pair him with your #1 d-man, and effectively turn him into a forth defenseman.

The Hawks need TVR or Odyua back and ready to play. Even not 100% they are a better option that #5, and allow Rosi to play his 10 effective minutes a night in protected matchups with the 3rd pairing.

- TheTrob


once again what they need and what they will get don't match up...

TVR with 18 nhl games, out 4 months with a serious knee injury...sorry to expect him to be a stabilizer or contributor for the playoff run is just unfair

and oduya was having his problems this year...he was trending south for what ever reason and that may continue...

i remember hearing how stacked the hawks were in the dmen...ahhhh


clendening, dahlbeck, erixon, cumiskey = come and gone
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Mar 10 @ 11:47 AM ET
Bickell will only be a dump, probably regardless of his playoff stats. Other teams at this point know what he is/isn't. Stan will be lucky to get a 3rd-5th round pick for him, and should be happy for that in return for the cap space.
- TheTrob



The real benefit in trading Bickell will be the cap relief and I would be happy with the type of return Stan got for Frolik.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Mar 10 @ 11:50 AM ET
Looks like TVR may get the nod this weekend to play fro the Rock. Any opinions on the estimated timeline for him to possibly make a Hawks call up. Assuming he has not regressed from his play earlier in the year.
- Vark37


i guess that would depend on how many games he plays at rcf and how he looks...tough injury to return from and miss 4 months of action...

they have 5 games bewteen 3/14 - 22 ...gotta think they limit him during that week...maybe he plays in 3 or 4 of the 5 with increasing TOI...

if all goes well is i suspect the earliest you see him up here is the end of march
Vark37
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Park Ridge, IL
Joined: 01.08.2014

Mar 10 @ 11:54 AM ET
i guess that would depend on how many games he plays at rcf and how he looks...tough injury to return from and miss 4 months of action...

they have 5 games bewteen 3/14 - 22 ...gotta think they limit him during that week...maybe he plays in 3 or 4 of the 5 with increasing TOI...

- bogiedoc

Yeah, actually going to the game Sunday when the Hogs come to play the Wolves. Hope to get a first hand look at him.

Not expecting big things but if he can return to the smart play he showed early on it seems he would be the better option for a #6/7 dman than Runblah come playoff time. I guess we will have to wait and see.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Mar 10 @ 11:57 AM ET
the trio of netminders is the ONLY reason this team is not south of the wild and hanging with the kings...how many shorties have they saved, how many odd mans have they stoned, pk save % is outstanding...

even with kane they were averaging 2.5 goals per gme since 1/1 and now its 1.9 in gmes since he got jammed and some how got 7 of 10 points

- bogiedoc


And don't forget the OT/SO improvement over last year:

This Year OT/SO record (thru today) = 12-6 (9-3 in SO)
Last Year OT/SO record (full year) = 7-15 (6-8 SO)

So that's at least a 5-point improvement in the OT/SO results for this year - take away those 5 points and they're much closer to 9th place in the conference.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Mar 10 @ 12:30 PM ET
So you don't think the center position is a problem, yet the 2C hasn't scored a goal in 23 games and is in general a defensive liablility who won't matchup well against any centers on playoff teams and now doesn't have #88 on his flank? I think that is a huge problem which will force Q into bouncing Vermette and probably Kruger all over the place. Forget Sharp as a center, not happening.

And my point wasn't to excuse the D of less than stellar play at times, but the goals against are the ultimate barometer and they have given up the 2nd fewest in the league to date. Could they be better - definitely. But they also need help from the forwards, most of whom have been mediocre for a long stretch this season.

- RickJ


No. Unless you count Crawford as a third defender the defense has been bad. Crawford by the way is going to have a career year if they continue to allow +30 shots \ game.

Richards is fine. Put him out there against the other teams chumps with Sharp and Hossa and good things happen. He has actually looked ok with Sharp and if Sharp starts getting some luck to go his way then that group will look better. The guy has been an offense only power play specialist his entire career. Literally, his whole career. Expecting more at this point is pretty pretty pretty silly.

Toews is probably the best defensive forward in the west. Top 3 at least. Vermette is very good defensively. 3/4 of them are lights out at the dot. 3/4 are tremendous penalty killers. 3/4 are good in the offensive zone (including Richards!). They're fine up the middle. And they have 3 viable "in case crap options." Center is finally not an issue.

Where they are not fine is exiting the zone in a manner that is conducive to maintaining possession and generating quality scoring chances. They are also pretty terrible at giving away the blue line and allowing teams to walk through the neutral zone. They also suck at keeping the other team from getting shots on goal.

I find it laughable that the group here has progressed from having a competing team bemoaning Crawford to having a competing team and ignoring the obvious defensive issues because of Crawford (and Kane to a certain extent) hiding the problem.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Mar 10 @ 12:32 PM ET
They have 2 defensemen playing well right now: Hammer and seabrook. Keith is being exposed with a more physical game and being paired with crap guys. I counted at least twice Sunday, him letting guys get position on him in front of the net and damn near scoring. Throw in the horrible turnover on Friday vs Edmonton that led to a goal, and Keith has been at least one notch below where his play normally is.

Problem is you can't go back to 2-7, 4-27 until you know 27 is as close as he can be to 2014 form, and 44 has his game legs and is peaking. You can't have 2, old men on your bottom pair in 44-32 if 44 hasn't found his game, and sure as hell can never have Rundblad play in the playoffs. Not unless there is an injury. They will need speed to exit the zone against what will be hellacious fore checks, and the way the NHL is officiating the regular season, we may need 2002 interference/grabbing being ignored and that doesn't bode well for smaller skilled defensemen.

- SteveRain


When Keith is let off the leash in the playoffs, eating 30 minutes a night with a competent partner that he doesn't have to fetch the puck for, I think things open up quite a bit.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Mar 10 @ 12:47 PM ET
No. Unless you count Crawford as a third defender the defense has been bad. Crawford by the way is going to have a career year if they continue to allow +30 shots \ game.

Richards is fine. Put him out there against the other teams chumps with Sharp and Hossa and good things happen. He has actually looked ok with Sharp and if Sharp starts getting some luck to go his way then that group will look better. The guy has been an offense only power play specialist his entire career. Literally, his whole career. Expecting more at this point is pretty pretty pretty silly.

Toews is probably the best defensive forward in the west. Top 3 at least. Vermette is very good defensively. 3/4 of them are lights out at the dot. 3/4 are tremendous penalty killers. 3/4 are good in the offensive zone (including Richards!). They're fine up the middle. And they have 3 viable "in case crap options." Center is finally not an issue.

Where they are not fine is exiting the zone in a manner that is conducive to maintaining possession and generating quality scoring chances. They are also pretty terrible at giving away the blue line and allowing teams to walk through the neutral zone. They also suck at keeping the other team from getting shots on goal.

I find it laughable that the group here has progressed from having a competing team bemoaning Crawford to having a competing team and ignoring the obvious defensive issues because of Crawford (and Kane to a certain extent) hiding the problem.

- fattybeef


If Richards is a power play 'specialist' I guess my understanding of the word specialist is skewed. He adds zero to this PP, which in fairness to him is comprised of a whole bunch of zeroes who accomplish nothing with a man advantage.

Never scoring on the PP and usually giving up the first goal of a game puts even more pressure on the defensive group to not make any mistakes which is totally unachievable when Q has to trot Rundblad and Rosy out there every night. And shots on goal - preventing them isn't the exclusive domain of the defenceman, plenty of the Hawk forwards make egregious turnover mistakes out there between both bluelines.


bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Mar 10 @ 12:50 PM ET
And don't forget the OT/SO improvement over last year:

This Year OT/SO record (thru today) = 12-6 (9-3 in SO)
Last Year OT/SO record (full year) = 7-15 (6-8 SO)

So that's at least a 5-point improvement in the OT/SO results for this year - take away those 5 points and they're much closer to 9th place in the conference.

- StLBravesFan


yes good point...craw and darling have been outstanding in shoot outs...so almost 25% of games are of the 3 pt variety...with a 33% of those going to the shoot out...

nhl has to get rid of that gimmick...win or loss should not be determined by a 1 on 1 skills competition....but they will never change that...and then they use it as the 1st tiebreaker....
Bjm84
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.29.2013

Mar 10 @ 12:51 PM ET
Any thoughts on trying to sign a guy like Beleksey in the off-season? Probably would come with, what, a 3 million dollar cap hit and would get more effort and output then Bickell on a 3rd line LW. He plays the net and the boards well.

I hope that the Blackhawks can sign a guy like this by moving Sharp and Bickell. Thoughts?
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Mar 10 @ 12:56 PM ET
The all rookie line (TT may be the vet with his time this year in Chicago).

Would like to see if some bottom 6 role players could be brought in in the offseason. I really think Vermette will be resigned too.

- ikeane


If Vermette has a similar cap hit (projections have him wanting more than his current hit) it would be around 4 mil. If the Hawks want to keep him Sharp, Bickell, and either Crawford or Seabrook would need to be moved to fit his contract under the cap.

It seems you planed to trade Shaw and Kruger (their two cap hits combine to less than 3.5 mil and we would need to add a guy to replace their spot to keep Vermete). So losing them would not cover Vermette's new contract.

Basically, I don't see a feasible way to keep Vermette.
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Mar 10 @ 12:57 PM ET
Any thoughts on trying to sign a guy like Beleksey in the off-season? Probably would come with, what, a 3 million dollar cap hit and would get more effort and output then Bickell on a 3rd line LW. He plays the net and the boards well.

I hope that the Blackhawks can sign a guy like this by moving Sharp and Bickell. Thoughts?

- Bjm84


We don't have any cap space, so I don't see it happening.....

Losing Bickell and Sharp cover keeping Saad and covering the wonder twins new pay days. Maybe enough to add a guy that makes $1-1.5 mil/yr (if the majority of the roster makes less than $1 mil per year).
TyCamScore
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.09.2010

Mar 10 @ 12:58 PM ET
For those talking about next year.....

- SimpleJack



Before Capgeek went down I did some serious digging in the numbers and came up with how next year could look. Note these are from Nov/Dec so players have been resigned (Darling) and moved (Morin, Smith, Dahlbeck) since then:

Salary Cap Doom, Part 1: http://thehockeychat.com/...s-salary-cap-doom-part-1/
Salary Cap Doom, Part 2: http://thehockeychat.com/2014/12/1202/

gnosox1986
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 01.25.2012

Mar 10 @ 1:01 PM ET
Im just going to keep posting these lines until they happen...

10/19/86
20/80/81
29/91/65
(42/11/13)/16/23
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Mar 10 @ 1:07 PM ET
Been reading a lot about this lately - refs going back to not calling the clutching/grabbing/interference plays - and my question is:

Chicago is one of the top markets in the league - certainly a top-3 US market - why aren't Rocky / McD screaming at Bettman every day about how this affects the Hawks, Rangers, and other top US-market teams - and if they are in his face continuously, why is Bettman ignoring it?

Does he really want to give NBC a Tampa Bay - Nashville match-up in the SCF?

- StLBravesFan


Scotty Bowman complained about it during the WCF final last year and I have heard/seen nothing else. I agree they should be lobbying for a return of the interference initiative. Maybe they are but not publicly? The lack of a public discussion makes me think it was scratched over game length and the teams that want it are basically being told "we needed it for the new TV deals - tough"... Obviously, no way to know but it is a problem.

People can talk about good teams playing both ways. That is not the point. The trend influences the game one way. It is easier to play the obstruction game, easier to draft those players, cheaper to pay those players since so many can do it. If it doesn't reverse then the Hawks will need to adjust their style and probably bring in more size - particularly on defense.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Mar 10 @ 1:14 PM ET
ugh....I'm not a believer in conspiracies. hawks need to play tougher and should be able to fight through that crap with their team speed.

Bettman doesn't hate Chicago. he's not trying to pencil in 2 smaller markets, do you really think he wants to have 0.5 share with Nashville vs Tampa?

- SteveRain


I for one am not discussing conspiracy. The numbers are clear. The league clamped down on interference and then reversed course. Whatever the reason was - it hurts offense and the teams with more skill. Constant grabbing and interference hurts the entertainment value of the game IMO. Mainly though, my point is it looks like adjustments need to be made to the Hawks if the trend continues. TWT. Maybe they will benefit with the additions - Timmonen certainly know how to obstruct (he looks so slow he may have to), Vermette and Desjardins add size. We will see...
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Mar 10 @ 1:17 PM ET
Scotty Bowman complained about it during the WCF final last year and I have heard/seen nothing else. I agree they should be lobbying for a return of the interference initiative. Maybe they are but not publicly? The lack of a public discussion makes me think it was scratched over game length and the teams that want it are basically being told "we needed it for the new TV deals - tough"... Obviously, no way to know but it is a problem.

People can talk about good teams playing both ways. That is not the point. The trend influences the game one way. It is easier to play the obstruction game, easier to draft those players, cheaper to pay those players since so many can do it. If it doesn't reverse then the Hawks will need to adjust their style and probably bring in more size - particularly on defense.

- tredbrta

Why is it a game-length issue? Doesn't take much time to call a penalty and 2 minutes of game time is 2 minutes of game time.
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Mar 10 @ 1:28 PM ET
Looks like TVR may get the nod this weekend to play fro the Rock. Any opinions on the estimated timeline for him to possibly make a Hawks call up. Assuming he has not regressed from his play earlier in the year.
- Vark37


I'll let you know what I see this weekend.
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Mar 10 @ 1:29 PM ET
once again what they need and what they will get don't match up...

TVR with 18 nhl games, out 4 months with a serious knee injury...sorry to expect him to be a stabilizer or contributor for the playoff run is just unfair

and oduya was having his problems this year...he was trending south for what ever reason and that may continue...

i remember hearing how stacked the hawks were in the dmen...ahhhh


clendening, dahlbeck, erixon, cumiskey = come and gone

- bogiedoc


Cumiskey is still here.
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Mar 10 @ 1:32 PM ET
Scotty Bowman complained about it during the WCF final last year and I have heard/seen nothing else. I agree they should be lobbying for a return of the interference initiative. Maybe they are but not publicly? The lack of a public discussion makes me think it was scratched over game length and the teams that want it are basically being told "we needed it for the new TV deals - tough"... Obviously, no way to know but it is a problem.

People can talk about good teams playing both ways. That is not the point. The trend influences the game one way. It is easier to play the obstruction game, easier to draft those players, cheaper to pay those players since so many can do it. If it doesn't reverse then the Hawks will need to adjust their style and probably bring in more size - particularly on defense.

- tredbrta


Why hasn't Scotty brought the pick interference offense to the Blackhawks? That is one piece of the Detroit model that hasn't been copied here. I wish someone would ask him why.
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