Ok stats people.

Just read some of the analytical story on the NHL site.

Just a quick question to Ryan & the fellow stats gurus. The author names Ovi as an example of probabilistic or deterministic outcomes. He tells of the possibilities that Ovi has that can affect the outcome - none of which is the goalie reaction.

How can you summarise an event mathematically without taking into all considerations that can affect the outcome?

How can statistics be correlated when their environment isn't completely assessed?

A player may have a great Corsi number & never hit the puck. Over a large sample size that player may have an injury that affects his performance.

Simply put, how are all the unknowns accounted for in this anylitical environment - they all cannot possibly be treated as chaos? If it comes down to probabilities being relied upon surely that reverts back to the law of averages? If I hit it to the RHS in the next 20 shots surely there will be 25% go in thinking that the goalie won't believe I keep hitting to the same place?

Bobby Ryan speaking about his shoot out attempt against the Pens? No Analytics used in his decision to hit the same shot as the penalty, BUT, his shot will affect his numbers in a certain way. Similar to his 'slump' before the Olympics last year.

Have all these questions been asked & answered already? If they have, why isn't there more game previews detailing analytical data?

You must not have watched this year... Dumoulin was the first up, he looked capable. Harrington looked 2 years away from being NHL ready.
- Guile

Agreed, Harrington might be ready next year if anything. Dumoulin can play now, he looked better than DP IMO.

Agreed, Harrington might be ready next year if anything. Dumoulin can play now, he looked better than DP IMO.
- znagle

I'm all for that potential stuff... but in Harrington's case, forcing him to play in the NHL any more this year could do more harm than good to his confidence.

Ok stats people.

Just read some of the analytical story on the NHL site.

Just a quick question to Ryan & the fellow stats gurus. The author names Ovi as an example of probabilistic or deterministic outcomes. He tells of the possibilities that Ovi has that can affect the outcome - none of which is the goalie reaction.

How can you summarise an event mathematically without taking into all considerations that can affect the outcome?

How can statistics be correlated when their environment isn't completely assessed?

A player may have a great Corsi number & never hit the puck. Over a large sample size that player may have an injury that affects his performance.

Simply put, how are all the unknowns accounted for in this anylitical environment - they all cannot possibly be treated as chaos? If it comes down to probabilities being relied upon surely that reverts back to the law of averages? If I hit it to the RHS in the next 20 shots surely there will be 25% go in thinking that the goalie won't believe I keep hitting to the same place?

Bobby Ryan speaking about his shoot out attempt against the Pens? No Analytics used in his decision to hit the same shot as the penalty, BUT, his shot will affect his numbers in a certain way. Similar to his 'slump' before the Olympics last year.

Have all these questions been asked & answered already? If they have, why isn't there more game previews detailing analytical data?
- Aussiepenguin

Almost no predictive model for any industry can identify all the statistically relevant variables. However, that doesn't mean the identified and statistically significant ones should be ignored either.

To make an analogy on it, if you are driving to work today, you most likely do everything you can with the variables you have control over which are most likely to lead to success of efficiently arriving to work on time. Some notable variables would be departure time, speed, route, driver and vehicle condition, etc. However, there are unknown variables that can intervene and play a major role in the trip (other drivers, traffic, cops, road conditions, etc.) that are generally unaccountable to control methods.

I'm all for that potential stuff... but in Harrington's case, forcing him to play in the NHL any more this year could do more harm than good to his confidence.
- Guile

Keep letting him find his game at the lower level. With the health coming back up top and Pouliot playing well, there is no reason to bring him up.

Question to those that follow our minor league teams a lot better than I do...

What were the defensive pairings between our 3 big D prospects before being called up?

Who was Pouliot, Dumoulin, and or Harrington with? I am assuming 2 were with one another?

You must not have watched this year... Dumoulin was the first up, he looked capable. Harrington looked 2 years away from being NHL ready.
- Guile

You're on the mark here, I haven't been able to watch as much this year. Maybe Harrington is better kept a bit of a mystery in the minors and used as trade bait.

Even stil, bring Dumo up and get rid of Martin or Ehrhoff.

We don't need Letang, Pouliot, Martin and Ehrhoff. Two of those guys would suffice - the first two. And that frees up a lot of space.

Ryan...you lost almost all credibility with this statement...

The first hesitation most people will have with this idea is the 6M cap hit that Staal has. They will bemoan he doesn't produce enough offense to justify such a price tag. While I agree that 6M is quite an investment in a player I will also argue you are getting proper value out of it.

I love Jordan Staal as a hockey player. I'd love to have him back on this team. I don't really even care about the 6M.

Where you lost credibility is when you make a statement like that...after beating Nick Spaling and his 2.2M contract to death.

After you repeatedly talk about smart spending and how players like Spaling DON'T produce enough for what they cost -- you go on and try and explain how a player who is almost universally believed to be overpaid --- is somehow worth 3 times the salary (with only about 25% more offensive output) than the guy (Spaling) you have spent numerous blogs trying to convince us should be moved out of town on the next trash day?

Look...you'd be better off writing a fan based piece that says I love Jordan Staal and want him back in the black and gold...and leave the attempt to make it sound even remotely logical from a monetary point of view out of your argument completely.

You're on the mark here, I haven't been able to watch as much this year. Maybe Harrington is better kept a bit of a mystery in the minors and used as trade bait.

Even stil, bring Dumo up and get rid of Martin or Ehrhoff.

We don't need Letang, Pouliot, Martin and Ehrhoff. Two of those guys would suffice - the first two. And that frees up a lot of space.
- brienstel

Martin is the only one of those that is worth moving due to his cap hit. Letang is untouchable, Ehrhoff has a NMC and we've all said its a very low chance to move with him having a baby. Pouliot, while having great value, doesn't do anything for us cap wise.

Ryan...you lost almost all credibility with this statement...



I love Jordan Staal as a hockey player. I'd love to have him back on this team. I don't really even care about the 6M.

Where you lost credibility is when you make a statement like that...after beating Nick Spaling and his 2.2M contract to death.

After you repeatedly talk about smart spending and how players like Spaling DON'T produce enough for what they cost -- you go on and try and explain how a player who is almost universally believed to be overpaid --- is somehow worth 3 times the salary (with only about 25% more offensive output) than the guy (Spaling) you have spent numerous blogs trying to convince us should be moved out of town on the next trash day?

Look...you'd be better off writing a fan based piece that says I love Jordan Staal and want him back in the black and gold...and leave the attempt to make it sound even remotely logical from a monetary point of view out of your argument completely.
- icedog97

If we can get them to retail 1 mil of his salary each year... would you then jump on the Staalwagon?

Martin is the only one of those that is worth moving due to his cap hit. Letang is untouchable, Ehrhoff has a NMC and we've all said its a very low chance to move with him having a baby. Pouliot, while having great value, doesn't do anything for us cap wise.
- Guile

Didn't realize the NMC with Ehrhoff.

Agreed, Letang is untouchable. And Pouliot shouldn't be considered for a trade bc of his upside unless its for a younger top 3 winger. Even then he's Letangs predecessor and can hopefully ensure the Pens have a top 2 PMD for another 10 years.

Martin is the piece then - push him out for help on the wings or assets. And bring up Dumo.

If we can get them to retail 1 mil of his salary each year... would you then jump on the Staalwagon?
- Guile

I'd love having him back...

But Ryan write blogs...repeatedly...that use stats and salaries as a way of saying "don't overpay pay for average" and then tries to convince us that bringing back the poster boy for "overpaying for average" is the right idea?

I seriously doubt this would happen if Staal wasn't his favorite player.

To me...if you want credibility...if you want the analysis you do to be effective in trying to convince others of how it's the better way to build a team...you can't ignore the large chasm between what Staal gets paid and what he produces on the ice...just because he's your boy.

GMJR apparantly likes Brandon Sutter...but his 3.3M salary is a total waste in Ryan opinion...yet somehow a guy getting paid 2X a much for a 30%(?) increase in offense (and defense?) is worth it?

Isn't he making the same mistake he accuses management of?

I wrote about this in September here...granted...Spalling is not a .5 point per game player or a replacement for Dupuis...but he has earned his 2.2M salary (to date) in my book...http://nambut.sportsblog...._raising_the_average.html

I'd love having him back...

But Ryan write blogs...repeatedly...that use stats and salaries as a way of saying "don't overpay pay for average" and then tries to convince us that bringing back the poster boy for "overpaying for average" is the right idea?

I seriously doubt this would happen if Staal wasn't his favorite player.

To me...if you want credibility...if you want the analysis you do to be effective in trying to convince others of how it's the better way to build a team...you can't ignore the large chasm between what Staal gets paid and what he produces on the ice...just because he's your boy.

GMJR apparantly likes Brandon Sutter...but his 3.3M salary is a total waste in Ryan opinion...yet somehow a guy getting paid 2X a much for a 30%(?) increase in offense (and defense?) is worth it?

Isn't he making the same mistake he accuses management of?
- icedog97

Read a tad closer... Hes also buying out/dumping Scuderi somewhere... He is bringing Staal back with both of those shipped out. Yeah, highly unlikely, and an overpay, but far better than what we have. Personally, I would like to try and trade Sutter and Martin to Caro for Staal, have them retain 1 mil of Staal, or add a bit to the deal to also snag that Tlusty that everyone is hot on.

Sutter + Martin + (???) for Staal + Tlusty.
Also find a sucker for Scuds, or whatever.

Martin is the only one of those that is worth moving due to his cap hit. Letang is untouchable, Ehrhoff has a NMC and we've all said its a very low chance to move with him having a baby. Pouliot, while having great value, doesn't do anything for us cap wise.
- Guile

None of our d-men are getting moved before the deadline. Maybe Borts, but thats it. We will lose Eherhoff & Martin for nothing and have to replace them via free agency in the offseason. I can see JR resigning #10 if the price is right. Our d pairings would then consist of:

Tanger/ehrhoff
Maata/pouliot
Scuds/despres

I'm all for that potential stuff... but in Harrington's case, forcing him to play in the NHL any more this year could do more harm than good to his confidence.
- Guile

Harrington is also considered more of a defensive type of defenseman so I would assume mastering your angles at AHL and then NHL game speeds takes a lot longer than a guy who is known more for firing the puck and making passes.

I think he will be fine.... but it is going to take a few years... doubt he'll be ready at 22 years old given his skill set.

Read a tad closer... Hes also buying out/dumping Scuderi somewhere... He is bringing Staal back with both of those shipped out. Yeah, highly unlikely, and an overpay, but far better than what we have. Personally, I would like to try and trade Sutter and Martin to Caro for Staal, have them retain 1 mil of Staal, or add a bit to the deal to also snag that Tlusty that everyone is hot on.

Sutter + Martin + (???) for Staal + Tlusty.
Also find a sucker for Scuds, or whatever.
- Guile

It doesn't matter to me who is in or out...I like Staal...I'd like to have him back.

My point is a more general one.

Staal under produces for what he costs.

I'd love having him back...

But Ryan write blogs...repeatedly...that use stats and salaries as a way of saying "don't overpay pay for average" and then tries to convince us that bringing back the poster boy for "overpaying for average" is the right idea?

I seriously doubt this would happen if Staal wasn't his favorite player.

To me...if you want credibility...if you want the analysis you do to be effective in trying to convince others of how it's the better way to build a team...you can't ignore the large chasm between what Staal gets paid and what he produces on the ice...just because he's your boy.

GMJR apparantly likes Brandon Sutter...but his 3.3M salary is a total waste in Ryan opinion...yet somehow a guy getting paid 2X a much for a 30%(?) increase in offense (and defense?) is worth it?

Isn't he making the same mistake he accuses management of?

I wrote about this in September here...
http://nambut.sportsblog...._raising_the_average.html
- icedog97

I'm not really advocating for bringing Staal back because I don't think he is necessary and the assets to acquire him would be high IMO. But, Staal would be the best 3C in the league. Filppula and Grabovski are paid $5m/yr and Bolland is $5.5m/yr. Staal is probably better offensively than all of them and much better as a possession player. And relative to paying Sutter, one of the worst 3Cs in the league, $3.3m/yr, and a bottom pairing guy Scuderi $3.3m/yr, it wouldn't be a terrible use of money.

I'd love having him back...

But Ryan write blogs...repeatedly...that use stats and salaries as a way of saying "don't overpay pay for average" and then tries to convince us that bringing back the poster boy for "overpaying for average" is the right idea?

I seriously doubt this would happen if Staal wasn't his favorite player.

To me...if you want credibility...if you want the analysis you do to be effective in trying to convince others of how it's the better way to build a team...you can't ignore the large chasm between what Staal gets paid and what he produces on the ice...just because he's your boy.

GMJR apparantly likes Brandon Sutter...but his 3.3M salary is a total waste in Ryan opinion...yet somehow a guy getting paid 2X a much for a 30%(?) increase in offense (and defense?) is worth it?

Isn't he making the same mistake he accuses management of?

I wrote about this in September here...
http://nambut.sportsblog...._raising_the_average.html
- icedog97

There's a difference with Staal. He can eat 20 minutes every night. He is an actual shutdown center unlike Sutter. He drives possession unlike Sutter. He can move up in the lineup with Geno or Sid for more offense, unlike Sutter. He can start in his own defensive zone and end up in the other teams zone unlike Sutter. He allows Geno and Sid free reign by making the other team use their top/2nd shut down unit on his line, yet again unlike Sutter. I had no problem paying Staal 2.7 million more than Sutter for a complete and total upgrade. Get rid of Sutter (part of trade), then Scuderi in the offseason and we will have enough to cover him. I see this as an offseason deal. Yes he is "pricey for his offensive output" but he is worth it from every standpoint. Don't forget, we offered him this same deal.

None of our d-men are getting moved before the deadline. Maybe Borts, but thats it. We will lose Eherhoff & Martin for nothing and have to replace them via free agency in the offseason. I can see JR resigning #10 if the price is right. Our d pairings would then consist of:

Tanger/ehrhoff
Maata/pouliot
Scuds/despres
- joescullz

Bortz needs a new deal this offseason, I can see us signing him for a cheap 2 year deal especially if 10 and 7 both walk which they will.

Almost no predictive model for any industry can identify all the statistically relevant variables. However, that doesn't mean the identified and statistically significant ones should be ignored either.

To make an analogy on it, if you are driving to work today, you most likely do everything you can with the variables you have control over which are most likely to lead to success of efficiently arriving to work on time. Some notable variables would be departure time, speed, route, driver and vehicle condition, etc. However, there are unknown variables that can intervene and play a major role in the trip (other drivers, traffic, cops, road conditions, etc.) that are generally unaccountable to control methods.
- jfkst1

Madden's thoughts on advanced stats:
@MarkMaddenX: If the NHL got redrafted, the eye-test ppl would kill the Corsi/Fenwick ppl. It's not baseball. It's not stop-start.

@MarkMaddenX: Each hockey player affected profoundly by situation he's in. But, hey, look at me...I KNOW ADVANCED STATS, SO I'M AN EXPERT! ***k off.

@MarkMaddenX: "I've been covering hockey...OK, watching hockey4 15 years now...OK, 5...&I've never talked to a GM, coach, player or informed media guy..."

@MarkMaddenX: "...never talked2 any1, really...BUT I KNOW CORSI& FENWICK, SO I'M A HOCKEY EXPERT! Read my blog. Please? Seriously, please?"

There's a difference with Staal. He can eat 20 minutes every night. He is an actual shutdown center unlike Sutter. He drives possession unlike Sutter. He can move up in the lineup with Geno or Sid for more offense, unlike Sutter. He can start in his own defensive zone and end up in the other teams zone unlike Sutter. He allows Geno and Sid free reign by making the other team use their top/2nd shut down unit on his line, yet again unlike Sutter. I had no problem paying Staal 2.7 million more than Sutter for a complete and total upgrade. Get rid of Sutter (part of trade), then Scuderi in the offseason and we will have enough to cover him. I see this as an offseason deal. Yes he is "pricey for his offensive output" but he is worth it from every standpoint. Don't forget, we offered him this same deal.
- znagle

He's so good that Carolina won 57 of it's last 140 games and will miss the playoffs again this year?

I get the argument that a 6M piece in a 71M puzzle might work...

But we are repeatedly subjected to arguments about how bad the bottom 6 are and the nitpicking at the salaries of Sutter and Spaling...who BTW combined don't make as much as Staal.

You can't live by "sound reasoning" when it fits your argument, then abandon it completely when it comes to your favorite player. Especially if you spend a good deal of time criticizing coaches and management for ignoring the stats you push forth as the right way to build a team.

Madden's thoughts on advanced stats:
@MarkMaddenX: If the NHL got redrafted, the eye-test ppl would kill the Corsi/Fenwick ppl. It's not baseball. It's not stop-start.

@MarkMaddenX: Each hockey player affected profoundly by situation he's in. But, hey, look at me...I KNOW ADVANCED STATS, SO I'M AN EXPERT! ***k off.

@MarkMaddenX: "I've been covering hockey...OK, watching hockey4 15 years now...OK, 5...&I've never talked to a GM, coach, player or informed media guy..."

@MarkMaddenX: "...never talked2 any1, really...BUT I KNOW CORSI& FENWICK, SO I'M A HOCKEY EXPERT! Read my blog. Please? Seriously, please?"


- joescullz

Woah is this what I think it is??

Ryan...you lost almost all credibility with this statement...



I love Jordan Staal as a hockey player. I'd love to have him back on this team. I don't really even care about the 6M.

Where you lost credibility is when you make a statement like that...after beating Nick Spaling and his 2.2M contract to death.

After you repeatedly talk about smart spending and how players like Spaling DON'T produce enough for what they cost -- you go on and try and explain how a player who is almost universally believed to be overpaid --- is somehow worth 3 times the salary (with only about 25% more offensive output) than the guy (Spaling) you have spent numerous blogs trying to convince us should be moved out of town on the next trash day?

Look...you'd be better off writing a fan based piece that says I love Jordan Staal and want him back in the black and gold...and leave the attempt to make it sound even remotely logical from a monetary point of view out of your argument completely.
- icedog97

Way to overreact without even trying to understand what you're female doging about dude. Did you conveniently miss the part in these conversations that staal has been a perennial 20g scorer for the price on a poopty Canes team and all the injuries they've run into?

One minute of your time looking at their goal production is enough to show you that Sutter has done it once and only gotten so close since. So our teams biggest problem has been our 3C, pk, scoring and not being content with sub par players but you "lost a lot of respect" (I love how this stupid saying gets thrown around these days, usually by people who had none to begin with but claim otherwise) because you're somehow blind to the fact that it would involve Sutter moving out and Scuderi being traded for picks to use in the deal or being bought out. All for a guy much bigger, can score more and would improve our pk and third line immensely. Staal is locked up long term and he'll end up making what 2 mil more than Sutter when he gets his next raise. Do some basic thinking before you knee jerk post.

He's so good that Carolina won 57 of it's last 140 games and will miss the playoffs again this year?

I get the argument that a 6M piece in a 71M puzzle might work...

But we are repeatedly subjected to arguments about how bad the bottom 6 are and the nitpicking at the salaries of Sutter and Spaling...who BTW combined don't make as much as Staal.

You can't live by "sound reasoning" when it fits your argument, then abandon it completely when it comes to your favorite player. Especially if you spend a good deal of time criticizing coaches and management for ignoring the stats you push forth as the right way to build a team.
- icedog97

Carolina is a bad team. J Staal can't change that alone. Hell, when Sid put up 100+ his rookie year we only had 58 points. Spaling is a decent hockey player although he is overpaid by maybe .5 million or so. Sutter is not a good hockey player. Staal is the absolute opposite of him for some of the reasons I mentioned above. When we lose Scuderi's salary (and Martin and Hoff) we will have more than enough to cover Staal and sign competent UFA players. Also, Kasperi Kapanen should be ready for at least AHL play next year, if not both NHL and AHL. Sundqvist is coming along, plus we have guys in Wilkes and college that we can finally start using on cheap deals. Cap increases the next few seasons, Kunitz and Dupuis off the books and we can fit the young D's new deals as well. They won't be expensive either, likely just bridge deals.

Madden's thoughts on advanced stats:
@MarkMaddenX: If the NHL got redrafted, the eye-test ppl would kill the Corsi/Fenwick ppl. It's not baseball. It's not stop-start.

@MarkMaddenX: Each hockey player affected profoundly by situation he's in. But, hey, look at me...I KNOW ADVANCED STATS, SO I'M AN EXPERT! ***k off.

@MarkMaddenX: "I've been covering hockey...OK, watching hockey4 15 years now...OK, 5...&I've never talked to a GM, coach, player or informed media guy..."

@MarkMaddenX: "...never talked2 any1, really...BUT I KNOW CORSI& FENWICK, SO I'M A HOCKEY EXPERT! Read my blog. Please? Seriously, please?"


- joescullz

I have a pretty low opinion of MM. I find it incredibly amusing that he is claiming analytics don't work while talking about the wage-myth gap in genders. I think he would make a better food critic than anything else. Aside from that, his opinion is less than worthless to me because he is so self-righteous about everything.