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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Marcel Goc Is Better Than Your Eye Test
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MadCap2008
Washington Capitals
Location: Brambleton, VA
Joined: 06.02.2007

Jan 20 @ 11:04 AM ET
It's a shame most of you don't appreciate having a quality blogger for your team. What's funny is you think the blogs make him look ridiculous, not your posts. Comical.
- bri29smith


+1
DaveG73
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Dunellen, NJ
Joined: 07.02.2006

Jan 20 @ 11:06 AM ET
Hey Ryan, all this data you compile is very interesting, but do you think that you may be doing the team a disservice by posting all this info? Like other teams scouts might use your information to knock down a players value in a potential trade? I know that this information is probably had by most scouts already, but maybe there's some guys who still scout by eye only? If you keep knocking down Sutter on this site, they may fetch a bag of pucks for him if they are lucky!
powerhouse
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Columbia , MD
Joined: 11.28.2006

Jan 20 @ 11:06 AM ET
MJ on Sill...
https://twitter.com/pensr...status/557547356728852480

- nh4442


WTF? Sill blows chunks and then runs away and hides. He is friggin" terrible. If Johnston really thinks this then he needs a brain transplant pronto from Toronto.
cap1681
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Verona, PA
Joined: 02.04.2010

Jan 20 @ 11:06 AM ET
I agree, now that Hartnell is gone; I can freely admit I loved that guy. He is 100% fantastic, makes hockey very fun.
- nbartley9


It sucks not seeing him on the glass at Penguins games anymore. I gained a lot of respect from Hartnell this summer.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 20 @ 11:07 AM ET
With the Penguins recent play against the division and the Flyers getting their asses kicked last night, this game worries me.

I can see the Flyers coming out like crazed viking warriors and the Penguins will wilt.

- Ben37


The Flyers can come out as jacked as they want, but they're bad at playing hockey.
znagle
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: OH
Joined: 10.02.2014

Jan 20 @ 11:08 AM ET
The Flyers can come out as jacked as they want, but they're bad at playing hockey.
- jmatchett383


jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 20 @ 11:08 AM ET
OK OK im jumping in the Sutter bash fest now I cant contain myself any longer.

Sutter sucks, he played brilliant inspired hockey at the beginning of the year; with flashes of great offensive talent, then he just gave up again; but he has got to do more. He cant have a flashy break away goal, then be a turn-over turd machine for the next 5 games until he scores again.

He is the exact style of player that I hate, entitled euro trash no skills soft dangler with no guts, tonight though I love him.


F The Flyers

- nbartley9


Sutter is European???
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jan 20 @ 11:09 AM ET
I agree with everything here. What a lot of people don't understand is that yes, Sutter is an average 3c and we need that for depth. If we had a 25-30 goal scoring 3c then he would price himself out of our team and his 3c role his next team.
- znagle


Disagree with that, I think Sutter is a very below average 3C. He's not very good defensively, and the only thing he has is that shot.
nbartley9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 01.31.2012

Jan 20 @ 11:10 AM ET
Sutter is European???
- jmatchett383

He sure plays like it
powerhouse
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Columbia , MD
Joined: 11.28.2006

Jan 20 @ 11:11 AM ET

Goc stats are decent but he is a friggin' toothpick just like Sutter and Bennett. In fact the Pens are the graveyard for every toothpick and small person player in the NHL.

Are you small and skinny? Think you can't play pro hockey? Think again! The Pittsburgh Penguins have a slot for you my friend!!!

F Sutter and management and Spallin, Sill, Adams and any other lame ass player. Scuds too! F all.

Oh and F the Flyers, almost forgot.


Feel better now.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 20 @ 11:11 AM ET
He sure plays like it
- nbartley9


Okay, fine. We'll give you a second rounder and Brayden Schenn for that useless European Malkin.
PghPens668771
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 11.26.2013

Jan 20 @ 11:12 AM ET
It won't always be a rivalry, at least on the Flyers side. Once Crosby, Malkin, and Letang go away in 10 years or so, the Pens will fall back to where they were pre-2005, behing the Rangers, Devils, Bruins, and Maple Leafs. For us, it's more of an individual player hate as opposed to a team hate like the other teams I mentioned.
- jmatchett383


The main reason the Pens were bad back then was that the league didn't have a salary cap. As salaries started getting more and more out of hand by the late 90's they couldn't hold on to players like Jagr and it finally caught up to them after 2001. This is the same situation the Pirates have been in for a long time due to the fact that MLB is uncapped and they essentially serve as a de facto minor league team for the bigger markets. With a salary cap in the NHL, however, we are on a mostly level playing field. It is kind of amusing that Philadelphia is about three times bigger than Pittsburgh in terms of population and obviously therefore has a lot more money yet can't outspend us by much in paying NHL players . Oh well, Bryz thanks you guys .
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 20 @ 11:12 AM ET
Goc plays better on the 4th line than Sutter does on the 3rd.

/eof
nbartley9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 01.31.2012

Jan 20 @ 11:14 AM ET
Okay, fine. We'll give you a second rounder and Brayden Schenn for that useless European Malkin.
- jmatchett383

Hey now, Geno plays like a Pittsburgher I never want to see Geno leave town!! When things don't go his way he slashes and takes dumb penalties until you don't remember he is playing poorly.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jan 20 @ 11:15 AM ET
I don't think Sekera can replace what Martin brings. Yes, Martin is 97% walking at season's end, but he gives you the best chance to win a Cup right now. Also, you'd be dealing 2 defensemen for 1 defensemen, and defensive depth is key in the playoffs. Dealing Martin would diminish your ability to win a Stanley Cup this year which, in my opinion, has the best roster construction since 08/09.
- jmatchett383


Fair enough. I was just trying to get creative on moving salary so we can bring in the final "piece" (no, not you Rob). Martin is definitely superior to Sekera but that would give us $3.25M in cap space, a verteran replacement for Martin during the cup run, plus an additional useful piece in the forward group.

Which, that last part may be the most import piece of why I bring this up. I think we need another forward. Betting on a fully healthy lineup with the Penguins is a bad bet.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 20 @ 11:16 AM ET
The main reason the Pens were bad back then was that the league didn't have a salary cap. As salaries started getting more and more out of hand by the late 90's they couldn't hold on to players like Jagr and it finally caught up to them after 2001. This is the same situation the Pirates have been in for a long time due to the fact that MLB is uncapped and they essentially serve as a de facto minor league team for the bigger markets. With a salary cap in the NHL, however, we are on a mostly level playing field. It is kind of amusing that Philadelphia is about three times bigger than Pittsburgh in terms of population and obviously therefore has a lot more money yet can't outspend us by much in paying NHL players . Oh well, Bryz thanks you guys .
- PghPens668771


You know, I heard that whole "teams with more money had an unfair advantage" thing when the NHL wanted a salary cap. So, if we go backwards in time from 03/04, which of these Cup winners were the big-money teams:

Tampa Bay
New Jersey
Detroit
Colorado
New Jersey
Dallas
Detroit
Detroit
Colorado
New Jersey
New York (R)
Montreal
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Edmonton
Calgary
Edmonton
Edmonton
Montreal
Edmonton
Edmonton
New York (I)

The next 7 are the Islanders and Canadiens. How many times do you see the Flyers there? The Bruins? The Rangers? The Maple Leafs? Out of all of the "big money" teams, there is 1 Rangers cup over 29 seasons (the Flyers won their 2 right before the mid-70's Habs dynasty and were preceded by Boston). So please, tell me the winning advantage that the big market teams had over teams like New Jersey, Colorado, and Detroit.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 20 @ 11:17 AM ET
Hey now, Geno plays like a Pittsburgher I never want to see Geno leave town!! When things don't go his way he slashes and takes dumb penalties until you don't remember he is playing poorly.
- nbartley9


Don't forget James Neal-level elbows and Subban-esque slew-foots.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 20 @ 11:18 AM ET
Fair enough. I was just trying to get creative on moving salary so we can bring in the final "piece" (no, not you Rob). Martin is definitely superior to Sekera but that would give us $3.25M in cap space, a verteran replacement for Martin during the cup run, plus an additional useful piece in the forward group.

Which, that last part may be the most import piece of why I bring this up. I think we need another forward. Betting on a fully healthy lineup with the Penguins is a bad bet.

- YouMeAndDupuis9


If you're betting on injuries, trading a top-3 defenseman should be the last thing you want to do.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jan 20 @ 11:18 AM ET
The Flyers can come out as jacked as they want, but they're bad at playing hockey.
- jmatchett383


This is where I question putting Farnham in for the Flyers game. With him and Downie in the lineup, we are certainly going to end up in a cheapshotting/bloodbath kind of game. While that is very entertaining, that plays to the Flyer's strengths, not the Penguins.
nbartley9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 01.31.2012

Jan 20 @ 11:19 AM ET
Goc plays better on the 4th line than Sutter does on the 3rd.

/eof

- jmatchett383

You are right on the money, Goc has a style better suited for the fourth line to make him an effective player in that role, Sutter could never do that. I look at it this way Sutter is the Bizaro-Staal. He has a skill set better suited for top 6 but has a horrible skill set for a 3rd line center. Staal had a skill set best suited for 3rd line duties, but he was deserving of playing top 6; its just not a better fit for Staal, see Carolina. They are polar opposites of each other.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Jan 20 @ 11:21 AM ET
If you're betting on injuries, trading a top-3 defenseman should be the last thing you want to do.
- jmatchett383


But I'm also adding a top 4 defenseman and a forward edit: AND getting rid of garbage like Sill/Adams

Letang
Ehrhoff
Sekera
Despres
Scuderi
Bortuzzo
Harrington
Pouliot

I do see your point though...damn Olli, why'd you have to get hurt this year
RAGSareDANGERus
New York Rangers
Joined: 05.22.2013

Jan 20 @ 11:22 AM ET
But I'm also adding a top 4 defenseman and a forward

Letang
Ehrhoff
Sekera
Despres
Scuderi
Bortuzzo
Harrington
Pouliot

I do see your point though...damn Olli, why'd you have to get hurt this year

- YouMeAndDupuis9

That's a brutal defense.
Stillson14
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Harrisburg, PA
Joined: 07.09.2014

Jan 20 @ 11:23 AM ET
I think he is a great blogger here, not many teams get a good blog a day. RW uses strictly advanced stats over any actual eye tests.
- znagle

He's not wrong in that eye tests are very subjective. People have this notion that 'the eye test' is a standard thing that everyone evaluates correctly. If the eye test were enough to evaluate a player, then advanced metrics wouldn't exist. They do, and they are extremely valuable in this very scenario. Is Sutter driving possession? No. Is Goc driving possession? No. How about zone starts? They're about equal with Sutter at 45% OZS and Goc at 44%. OK then, are their line mates any good? Well, Sutter plays with Malkin, Bennett, Downie, Spaling, Rust. Goc - Adams, Sill, Farnham, Rust, Arcabello, Ebbett. Notice a difference in Quality of Teammates? Sutter plays with guys that drive possession. Goc doesn't. Yet Goc's is a full percentage point better than Sutter in SAF.

At worst, Goc/Sutter is a push. Why then do the Pens pay Sutter 3.3m and Goc 1m? These are legitimate questions that should be asked.
bri29smith
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Monongahela, PA
Joined: 08.20.2009

Jan 20 @ 11:23 AM ET
Bad pinch, broken stick, bad ice, too long of a shift, played 3 games in 4 nights, team mate when for a bad line change, team mate got dangled, puck hopped over the stick. There are so many things that happen every game in hockey that skew these numbers. You can't say depend solely on advanced stats. Yes they are nice, but yous till have to rely on the eyes and game films.
- znagle

Strawman. No responsible analyst/blogger/whatever relies on stats alone.
nbartley9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 01.31.2012

Jan 20 @ 11:23 AM ET
That's a brutal defense.
- RAGSareDANGERus

I take Tanger over McD 100 times out of 100 times.
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