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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flight Gate, WJC Updates
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jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 5 @ 9:05 AM ET
I understand what your saying but I also see how other teams have been able to move players and get solid returns. Doughas Murray last year got 2 2nd rounders because he filled a need for a playoff team. You don't think Grossmann has that value? I am all for patience but you have to start looking to the future. Not just next year but the year after that too. I know Matt Read has struggled but this isn't a 25 year old player. Is he going to get back to 20 goal player? I don't know. I know Simmonds is loved by everyone but would it serve the team better to maybe get a better ES player and not such a PP specialist. I don't know. But they have to startreworking this roster.
- J35Bacher


The Douglas Murray trade was the exception more than the norm. It was a horrible move at the time, and it was a horrible move after the fact. Counting on that kind of return for Grossmann isn't wise. They could probably get something like a 2nd and a 5th or maybe 2 3rds.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 5 @ 9:08 AM ET
I am assuming that trade proposal is a joke. The 1st round pick by itself is worth more than Tyler Myers.
- psuhockey


Yeah, I'm not 100% opposed to trading our #1 pick, but I am if the main component of the return is Tyler Myers. Now, if the main part of the return was more like Brent Seabrook (at the very least) I'd be more willing to listen. Even Seabrook would make me wary. Whatever the return, it would have to be centered around a proven yet still relatively young (under 32) solid, 2-way, top-pair defender.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 5 @ 9:08 AM ET
Flyers shouldn't trade their #1 pick unless the return is significant. It will be a top 10, maybe top 5 pick.
- NickTheKid87


I strongly agree. But, this may be the year that a really smart GM really cashes in by going the other way. This draft has legendary expectations attached to it. Nobody wants to deal picks. Everyone wants gain more picks. Selling at the top can be a smart market strategy. If you have a potential top 5 pick (maybe win the lottery), you are going to want a huge return.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jan 5 @ 9:09 AM ET
The Douglas Murray trade was the exception more than the norm. It was a horrible move at the time, and it was a horrible move after the fact. Counting on that kind of return for Grossmann isn't wise. They could probably get something like a 2nd and a 5th or maybe 2 3rds.
- jmatchett383



Well if the info about the Flyers wanting to extend Schultz are true then I take the 2 3rd rounders. Trying to sign Schultz and keeping Schenn and Grossmann seems overkill.

But at the TDL it takes just one team needing a need. I would rather have the 2 3rds as amunition to maybe make another deal at the draft or maybe I find a Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Quick with one of those picks.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 5 @ 9:10 AM ET
I strongly agree. But, this may be the year that a really smart GM really cashes in by going the other way. This draft has legendary expectations attached to it. Nobody wants to deal picks. Everyone wants gain more picks. Selling at the top can be a smart market strategy. If you have a potential top 5 pick (maybe win the lottery), you are going to want a huge return.
- spatso


If they could get Doughty/Pietrangelo/Weber/Ekman-Larsson/Hedman in a deal for the pick, sure but otherwise hold onto it.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 5 @ 9:12 AM ET
Well if the info about the Flyers wanting to extend Schultz are true then I take the 2 3rd rounders. Trying to sign Schultz and keeping Schenn and Grossmann seems overkill.

But at the TDL it takes just one team needing a need. I would rather have the 2 3rds as amunition to maybe make another deal at the draft or maybe I find a Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Quick with one of those picks.

- J35Bacher


Absolutely. If there is an offer to get picks in the first 3 rounds of this draft and you feel like you have a surplus of a certain type of player (especially for more stay-at-home style defenders) then I'd listen. I'm just stating that I don't think the Douglas Murray return is par for the course.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jan 5 @ 9:12 AM ET
Yeah, I'm not 100% opposed to trading our #1 pick, but I am if the main component of the return is Tyler Myers. Now, if the main part of the return was more like Brent Seabrook (at the very least) I'd be more willing to listen.
- jmatchett383


Yes! Yours is a better example. And, given the likelihood of more cap pressures since ($C) has dropped another 3% since Daly said cap would hold if Canadian dollar did not go down any further.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 5 @ 9:13 AM ET
I strongly agree. But, this may be the year that a really smart GM really cashes in by going the other way. This draft has legendary expectations attached to it. Nobody wants to deal picks. Everyone wants gain more picks. Selling at the top can be a smart market strategy. If you have a potential top 5 pick (maybe win the lottery), you are going to want a huge return.
- spatso


No one's saying not to trade the pick under any circumstances (well, maybe some people are), just that the return mist be higher than Tyler Myers as the centerpiece of the return. But yes, you could most likely get a very high return for the pick if you're willing to deal it.

Edit: What you said above.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jan 5 @ 9:14 AM ET
They will be able to move a couple of the defensemen and get a solid return. Meszaros got them a conditional pick that turned out to be a third and he was a healthy scratch at times.

I don't know how many they will move, or who. But if they choose, they will obtain a second-rounder, at the very least, before the close of the trade deadline.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jan 5 @ 9:17 AM ET
Absolutely. If there is an offer to get picks in the first 3 rounds of this draft and you feel like you have a surplus of a certain type of player (especially for more stay-at-home style defenders) then I'd listen. I'm just stating that I don't think the Douglas Murray return is par for the course.
- jmatchett383


I don't think the return that SJ got for Murray will happen again any time soon with advanced stats and possession-driven hockey gaining even more steam. A player like that maybe gets you a 3rd rounder now. Also, when you factor in the depth of this draft, a Murray-type dman doesn't get you a 2nd.
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Jan 5 @ 9:18 AM ET
Yeah, I'm not 100% opposed to trading our #1 pick, but I am if the main component of the return is Tyler Myers. Now, if the main part of the return was more like Brent Seabrook (at the very least) I'd be more willing to listen. Even Seabrook would make me wary. Whatever the return, it would have to be centered around a proven yet still relatively young (under 32) solid, 2-way, top-pair defender.
- jmatchett383

This would make sense if the Flyers were one player away or this was some injury plagued season but the Flyers are bad. Very bad. They are closer to Edmonton, 7pts, than they are the playoffs, 11 pts. This isn't a young team either. Outside of Couturier, B. Schenn, and Laughton, the roster is in their prime years or past it. Outside of those 3, these guys are about as good as they are going to get and will only be getting worst. And time is running out on B. Schenn and Couturier as far as making huge progress. They are in their 4th season. By season 5, if you don't see a big jump in production you probably aren't going to see it.

This teams needs to plan as if 2017-2018 is the earliest it can compete again. That makes the 1st pick huge. Much bigger than Seabrook.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 5 @ 9:19 AM ET
I understand what your saying but I also see how other teams have been able to move players and get solid returns. Doughas Murray last year got 2 2nd rounders because he filled a need for a playoff team. You don't think Grossmann has that value? I am all for patience but you have to start looking to the future. Not just next year but the year after that too. I know Matt Read has struggled but this isn't a 25 year old player. Is he going to get back to 20 goal player? I don't know. I know Simmonds is loved by everyone but would it serve the team better to maybe get a better ES player and not such a PP specialist. I don't know. But they have to startreworking this roster.
- J35Bacher


I think all aspects have to be taken into consideration. Looking at Wayne Simmonds, first of all I don't consider him a PP specialist. He is capable of producing at ES, just as he has done in the past. If they have a playmaking wing or center to play with Simmonds, which would give the team a better forward mix, does that help Simmonds and the line he plays on produce better at ES? Don't label Wayne Simmonds and trade him based on the team not having the right mix of players.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jan 5 @ 9:21 AM ET
I disagree with Bill in this regard: While you can't get rid of everyone, the Flyers can't be married to players who, at this point, look like they are going to finish in the lower third of the league, at a minimum.

I'm not advocating trading difference-makers, or even players like Sean Couturier, who has done some good things and is still young.

But you have to listen on, what, 15 guys on the roster, if anyone inquires. And if a deal makes sense, then I feel it should be done, because I do think upgrades to certain areas on this roster will be able to be found.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 5 @ 9:22 AM ET
Why? The players just decided that they'd go to Nashville. The team isn't responsible or required to pay for travel to every game, unless a team-supplied shuttle picks up every player from his residence for every home game.
- jmatchett383



Lots of rules involved in the CBA, so I would be careful about stating what the team is responsible for or required to do.

How I see is that the Flyers management knew they were violating the CBA, but felt it was more important to travel early to try and win. It shows the commitment they have to winning, and I applaud them for it. It's didn't work, but blame the players for that, not team management.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 5 @ 9:24 AM ET
This would make sense if the Flyers were one player away or this was some injury plagued season but the Flyers are bad. Very bad. They are closer to Edmonton, 7pts, than they are the playoffs, 11 pts. This isn't a young team either. Outside of Couturier, B. Schenn, and Laughton, the roster is in their prime years or past it. Outside of those 3, these guys are about as good as they are going to get and will only be getting worst. And time is running out on B. Schenn and Couturier as far as making huge progress. They are in their 4th season. By season 5, if you don't see a big jump in production you probably aren't going to see it.

This teams needs to plan as if 2017-2018 is the earliest it can compete again. That makes the 1st pick huge. Much bigger than Seabrook.

- psuhockey


If this team is approaching Edmonton level, how do you expect young guys like B Schenn or Couturier to improve? Good players on bad teams don't look like good players. If the defensemen can't get them the puck, and there's no secondary scoring players on their lines, then they become much easier to defend.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jan 5 @ 9:25 AM ET
I know alot of folks here don't like Frank, but he's dead on with this in his piece today (http://www.philly.com/phi...ers_in_no-man_s_land.html):

General manager Ron Hextall inherited a defense full of untenable contracts - ones that don't begin to expire until 2016. Up front, the secondary young pieces Hextall seems least inclined to move aren't doing much to inspire confidence for the future.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/phi....html#uyhrvqipQd8K5EdV.99


And also this part:

There are serious, fundamental roster flaws that not a coaching change, or a few shootout wins, or even a miraculous playoff appearance will fix.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/phi....html#uyhrvqipQd8K5EdV.99
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jan 5 @ 9:26 AM ET
Lots of rules involved in the CBA, so I would be careful about stating what the team is responsible for or required to do.

How I see is that the Flyers management knew they were violating the CBA, but felt it was more important to travel early to try and win. It shows the commitment they have to winning, and I applaud them for it. It's didn't work, but blame the players for that, not team management.

- MJL


I'm not pointing fingers, and I also applaud them for taking the hit to try to win. Just stating that there a ways to get around it, and was just wondering if the CBA would prohibit a "player-organized" flight during the Xmas break.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jan 5 @ 9:26 AM ET
I know alot of folks here don't like Frank, but he's dead on with this in his piece today (http://www.philly.com/phi...ers_in_no-man_s_land.html):



And also this part:

- johndewar


It's not the coach, any more than it was Laviolette.

It's the roster.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jan 5 @ 9:29 AM ET
I'm not pointing fingers, and I also applaud them for taking the hit to try to win. Just stating that there a ways to get around it, and was just wondering if the CBA would prohibit a "player-organized" flight during the Xmas break.
- jmatchett383



I know you weren't pointing fingers, and I personally don't see any reason why they couldn't have approached it like you said.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jan 5 @ 9:32 AM ET
I don't think its possible to do a "fire sale" as in, trading every defenseman, before the TDL.

However, I would be shopping all of the defensemen on the roster, and would definitely agree to any deal where the team got value. Right now they have 8 NHL defensemen under contract. There's no reason not to try and get additional picks in the 2015 draft for them, even if it's just 2nd & 3rd rounders.

The Flyers need to face up to the likelihood that they're 2-3 years away from being a contender, if everything breaks right. By that time, most of the current defense will be gone or signed to new deals. IMO, this group of defensemen is transitory anyhow.

Streit is a good offensive defenseman, but he's 37. Coburn is a good defenseman, who generally plays better as a top defenseman's sidekick. The rest of the group are 4-7 guys, who are limited and struggle when asked to play bigger roles.

That's not their fault, it just is what they are. The free agent market, as mediocre as it is, can bring in guys who are similar to what they have on short term deals. Not really sure there's much difference in keeping Grossmann or Schultz when there's still no real shot at adding a legit number one guy.

How much worse off are the Flyers if the traded Grossmann & Schultz for 3rd rounders and then signed Bryan Allen & Matt Bartkowski to 2 year deals as placeholders? I realize it doesn't really make them better, but neither does holding onto the current group.

At least, if they add picks, they won't be playing Angry Birds & Candy Crush for 24 hours between the 6th overall pick and their next pick all the way down at 75th

- Jsaquella


You saved me lots of time

This isn't hard to understand.

In fact. If you ripped up all the flyer D contracts, and they had to build a new blue line purely through UFA and their entry level players, I'm confident they would ice at least the same caliber of defense
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jan 5 @ 9:36 AM ET
Could be over hyped, but many believe this year's draft may be the best talent pool of 17 and 18 year olds ever. Heard some scouts believe that the depth of "NHL certain" prospects goes at least to the half way point of the second round (45 picks).

Contrarian investment theory suggests a really smart GM should go against the trend and this is the year to trade picks for established players. For example, Buffalo would pay attention if the Flyers offered up their #1 pick plus a good player for Tyler Myers.

- spatso

hmm i like this line of thought but not sure i want myers... we need established players to play now... not 8 years fromnow when giroux and co. need walkers
nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Jan 5 @ 9:38 AM ET
I think it's time to start selling, or at least seriously gauging the value of players on the roster and changing the mix to better evaluate some of the guys Berube has buried in the press box.

Seravalli posted this, in his latest article on the Flyers on Philly.com

http://www.philly.com/phi...ers_in_no-man_s_land.html

The numbers say the Flyers (14-18-7) need to go a sobering 28-11-4 for just a 50-50 shot at making the playoffs, according to SportsClubStats.com. Even that might not get them in.

How hard is it to make up ground in the standings? Ask the Blue Jackets. They were 12 points out of a playoff spot in November. After a 9-1-1 run, they were nine points back. Grabbing 19 out of an available 22 points got them a net of three points.

Does even a 9-1-1 run for a team that gave up four or more goals in five out of eight games on this road trip sound like one the Flyers are capable of making?


So, in other words, the Flyers basically have to win at a .750 clip for the rest of the season to even have a shot at the playoffs. I can't see it happening, can you?

- Jsaquella



if they were chasing just one team MAYBE they could catch up but having to leap over a boat load of teams makes that very unlikely. I like the basic core of the forwards and am happy with Mason but they obviously need to shed themselves of some of the defensive group. if you were GM, who would you be keeping assuming you can get rid of anyone you want despite bad contracts.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jan 5 @ 9:39 AM ET
I don't think its possible to do a "fire sale" as in, trading every defenseman, before the TDL.

However, I would be shopping all of the defensemen on the roster, and would definitely agree to any deal where the team got value. Right now they have 8 NHL defensemen under contract. There's no reason not to try and get additional picks in the 2015 draft for them, even if it's just 2nd & 3rd rounders.

The Flyers need to face up to the likelihood that they're 2-3 years away from being a contender, if everything breaks right. By that time, most of the current defense will be gone or signed to new deals. IMO, this group of defensemen is transitory anyhow.

Streit is a good offensive defenseman, but he's 37. Coburn is a good defenseman, who generally plays better as a top defenseman's sidekick. The rest of the group are 4-7 guys, who are limited and struggle when asked to play bigger roles.

That's not their fault, it just is what they are. The free agent market, as mediocre as it is, can bring in guys who are similar to what they have on short term deals. Not really sure there's much difference in keeping Grossmann or Schultz when there's still no real shot at adding a legit number one guy.

How much worse off are the Flyers if the traded Grossmann & Schultz for 3rd rounders and then signed Bryan Allen & Matt Bartkowski to 2 year deals as placeholders? I realize it doesn't really make them better, but neither does holding onto the current group.

At least, if they add picks, they won't be playing Angry Birds & Candy Crush for 24 hours between the 6th overall pick and their next pick all the way down at 75th

- Jsaquella

No Suway Surfer?
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jan 5 @ 9:41 AM ET
You saved me lots of time

This isn't hard to understand.

In fact. If you ripped up all the flyer D contracts, and they had to build a new blue line purely through UFA and their entry level players, I'm confident they would ice at least the same caliber of defense

- Just5


The problem is that they can't be worse.

You are last on the penalty kill. You are 23rd in goals against. Some of the only teams behind you are simply horrific defensively, like Toronto or Edmonton, or have had massive injuries or goaltending woes, like Columbus and Arizona.

The Flyers are absolutely trying to play defense and are only in front of some of the worst teams in the league who have clear issues.

I wanted these guys to play better, and thought they would. I hoped they would.

But they can't. For whatever reason, this is what they are, and the Flyers need to let them go as quickly as they can. Because they are not going to miraculously improve.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jan 5 @ 9:42 AM ET
Yeah, I'm not 100% opposed to trading our #1 pick, but I am if the main component of the return is Tyler Myers. Now, if the main part of the return was more like Brent Seabrook (at the very least) I'd be more willing to listen. Even Seabrook would make me wary. Whatever the return, it would have to be centered around a proven yet still relatively young (under 32) solid, 2-way, top-pair defender.
- jmatchett383

damnit cant check teams cap to fabricate trade proposals
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