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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Too Little, Too Late for Flyers, WJC Update, Alumni
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PhillaBully
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.20.2010

Dec 30 @ 12:53 PM ET
It is being an alarmist. The Canadien dollar will effect how much it goes up. The cap has gone up every year in it's existence since it was put into effect since 2005, except for one year. That was the year it was artificially lowered coming out of the lockout. The NHL will continue to take in record revenue.
- MJL


revenue is counted in us dollars right? A ton of that revenue comes from our neighbors in the north. If the value of their currency falls, so does the revenue. the cap has been going up in part due to a strong canadian dollar vs week us dollar.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 30 @ 12:53 PM ET
And that is faulty thinking. You do your homework and select a player that can be something. PLenty of teams have drafted solid players in the third round. Your thinking is the same thinking that got the Philliesin trouble. Keep bring back vet after vet because it seems safer then maybe the prospect or in hockey the pick you might aquire.

Johnathan Quick #72
Alfredson #133
Lundquist #205
ztterberg #210
Datsyuk #171
Kimmo #250
Chara #56
Seidenberg#172
Pavelski#205
Holtby #93


I think I would take my chances on moving Schultz if I can possibly get one of these.

- J35Bacher


It's not faulty thinking. How many total players were drafted in the rounds those players were drafted out of?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 30 @ 12:54 PM ET
revenue is counted in us dollars right? A ton of that revenue comes from our neighbors in the north. If the value of their currency falls, so does the revenue. the cap has been going up in part due to a strong canadian dollar vs week us dollar.
- PhillaBully


The cap goes up due to the NHL taking in record revenue year after year. It will go up, it's just a question of how much.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Dec 30 @ 12:55 PM ET
Nothing personal but who the (frank) is trading for Luke Schenn.

That ongoing contract for the level of play?

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 30 @ 12:56 PM ET
None. If you can get 3 3rd round picks for guys that won't be here in 2-3 years anyway, do it. More picks = more chances to get a steal.
- NickTheKid87


The odds are greater that you are giving players away for nothing. Everybody can't be traded. They have to decide who to move and who to keep. See what the offers are. A 3rd round pick is a marginal value at best.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Dec 30 @ 12:56 PM ET
None. If you can get 3 3rd round picks for guys that won't be here in 2-3 years anyway, do it. More picks = more chances to get a steal.
- NickTheKid87


Yup. Also, if you have a bunch of 3rd rounders, you can package them to possibly get a 2nd rounder or as additional assets to maybe slide up in the 1st round.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 30 @ 12:57 PM ET
Nothing personal but who the (frank) is trading for Luke Schenn.

That ongoing contract for the level of play?

- flyer_nutter


His contract isn't that bad, and he's been playing pretty solid hockey the last few weeks. That being said, that's a small sample size for the inconsistency he has shown throughout his career. That's going to limit his value.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Dec 30 @ 12:57 PM ET
revenue is counted in us dollars right? A ton of that revenue comes from our neighbors in the north. If the value of their currency falls, so does the revenue. the cap has been going up in part due to a strong canadian dollar vs week us dollar.
- PhillaBully


Rogers windfall gets paid in CAD and needs to be converted, too.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Dec 30 @ 1:01 PM ET
Nobody is taking MacDonald. Schultz has done as good a job as anyone could have hoped. Move him for a pick, then if you really liked him that much, try to re-sign him in the summer.

Same goes for Emery or pretty much any pending UFA they have. It's not like they're trading an irreplaceable piece. There's nobody on the defense I'd say is untouchable. If another team offered enough for any of them, I'd be OK making the move.

- Jsaquella


I pray like hell maybe Edmonton is foolish enough to take on MacDonald. In reality though, I do think they are stuck with another overpaid average player for long term.

My one thing with trading Grossmann depends on what they can get for him. If its for the sake of doing a trade just to shake up that back end I wouldn't. Grossmann is far and away the better player between him and Luke. The Flyers cannot be bringing up the young d-men so soon to just deal everyone away.

Same goes for Coburn, while I do think he has value you need to replace a player like that. For all his inconsistency he has importance yet. The fine line at the end of all this is trying to ensure your back end can compete during the prime years of Giroux/Voracek.

The time is running out there. Will be interesting to see because there is a disconnect in development of the offense and defense on this team.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Dec 30 @ 1:03 PM ET
His contract isn't that bad, and he's been playing pretty solid hockey the last few weeks. That being said, that's a small sample size for the inconsistency he has shown throughout his career. That's going to limit his value.
- MJL


Roughly 3.5 and ongoing no?

Hes a 3rd pairing d-man with speed issues. Whatever GM trades for that without sending back a poor contract himself is a fool.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 30 @ 1:06 PM ET
I pray like hell maybe Edmonton is foolish enough to take on MacDonald. In reality though, I do think they are stuck with another overpaid average player for long term.

My one thing with trading Grossmann depends on what they can get for him. If its for the sake of doing a trade just to shake up that back end I wouldn't. Grossmann is far and away the better player between him and Luke. The Flyers cannot be bringing up the young d-men so soon to just deal everyone away.

Same goes for Coburn, while I do think he has value you need to replace a player like that. For all his inconsistency he has importance yet. The fine line at the end of all this is trying to ensure your back end can compete during the prime years of Giroux/Voracek.

The time is running out there. Will be interesting to see because there is a disconnect in development of the offense and defense on this team.

- flyer_nutter


Personnel wise, not having a legitimate top defense pairing is the single biggest issue going forward, and they aren't close to having it.
I disagree that MacDonald is average. He is playing solid hockey right now. Moving the puck smartly and quickly, and is sound in his coverages. I'd like to see him become more aggressive offensively, and moving up into the play offensively, and filling holes. I see some signs of that happening. Flyers defense needs to generate more shots. I think he is cautious due to his use in previous years, and being cast in a role that he is in over his head in. If he's used in the 2nd pair role where he belongs, he is a solid player. Slightly overpaid now, but that will level out in a year or two, as salaries escalate.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 30 @ 1:09 PM ET
Roughly 3.5 and ongoing no?

Hes a 3rd pairing d-man with speed issues. Whatever GM trades for that without sending back a poor contract himself is a fool.

- flyer_nutter


It's 3.6M, and there is only one year left after this year. 3.6M isn't a lot of money, but it's high for a 3rd pair defenseman. His speed issues are overblown. When he plays smart positionally, it's not an issue. His biggest issue is that he is caught flat footed and standing still too often, which he hasn't been doing lately. I emphasize lately.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Dec 30 @ 1:09 PM ET
I pray like hell maybe Edmonton is foolish enough to take on MacDonald. In reality though, I do think they are stuck with another overpaid average player for long term.

My one thing with trading Grossmann depends on what they can get for him. If its for the sake of doing a trade just to shake up that back end I wouldn't. Grossmann is far and away the better player between him and Luke. The Flyers cannot be bringing up the young d-men so soon to just deal everyone away.

Same goes for Coburn, while I do think he has value you need to replace a player like that. For all his inconsistency he has importance yet. The fine line at the end of all this is trying to ensure your back end can compete during the prime years of Giroux/Voracek.

The time is running out there. Will be interesting to see because there is a disconnect in development of the offense and defense on this team.

- flyer_nutter


Why would anyone marry themselves to the MacDonald contract? Despite what some say about the cap, GM's have been saying to the press repeatedly that moving contracts with term has been the biggest stumbling block to trades over the past few months.

I'm not worried with replacing Grossmann, at least not in the short term. You always talk about wanting a rebuild, well, there's pains in that approach. If he can be turned into assets that can be contributing in a couple few years, I'm all for it. And if you're looking for a short term Grossmann replacement, there's a few guys in UFA that could be had for a year or two contract(Allen, Hedja, Salvador, Jackman, Regher)

Coburn, like Streit, is a different issue. They are more difficult to replace than Grossmann. But they will also have a good deal more value. The issue with Coburn for me is, he's going to need a new deal soon. On a new deal, is he worth $5.5mm? $6mm? IF you think he isn't, then he's a potential trade chip over the next year or so, because he's going to get that in his next deal.

PhillaBully
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.20.2010

Dec 30 @ 1:10 PM ET
Rogers windfall gets paid in CAD and needs to be converted, too.
- Tomahawk


thats the point i was trying to make....someone (MJL) needs a lesson in international finance.

Part of the reason for record revenues was a strong canadian dollar vs weak us dollar... when the 6 teams generate a third of the revenue than currency conversion can have a huge affect.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 30 @ 1:15 PM ET
thats the point i was trying to make....someone (MJL) needs a lesson in international finance.

Part of the reason for record revenues was a strong canadian dollar vs weak us dollar... when the 6 teams generate a third of the revenue than currency conversion can have a huge affect.

- PhillaBully




The Canadien dollar is only one factor in the cap. As I've stated multiple times, the value of the Canadien dollar will have an effect on how much the cap goes up. But it will go up, just as it always has.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Dec 30 @ 1:19 PM ET
1. Trade all defenseman
2. Draft Z3, Z4 and Z5
3.
4. Win cup
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Dec 30 @ 1:21 PM ET
1. Trade all defenseman
2. Draft Z3, Z4 and Z5
3.
4. Win cup

- PhillySportsGuy


ALL OF YOUR Z BELONG TO TEH FLYERA
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Dec 30 @ 1:22 PM ET
It's 3.6M, and there is only one year left after this year. 3.6M isn't a lot of money, but it's high for a 3rd pair defenseman. His speed issues are overblown. When he plays smart positionally, it's not an issue. His biggest issue is that he is caught flat footed and standing still too often, which he hasn't been doing lately. I emphasize lately.
- MJL

3.6 Mill for Schenn is not that bad. He is one of the players on my list I am least worried about. I actually prefer to keep him. Need a big, physical defenseman and he is younger than Grossmann. He could be useful with the right partner.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Dec 30 @ 1:23 PM ET
3.6 Mill for Schenn is not that bad. He is one of the players on my list I am least worried about. I actually prefer to keep him. Need a big, physical defenseman and he is younger than Grossmann. He could be useful with the right partner.
- GOA88


He needs to make less money.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Dec 30 @ 1:23 PM ET
ALL OF YOUR Z BELONG TO TEH FLYERA
- johndewar


All Zs will play together one day. It will be deemed Z-Day
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Dec 30 @ 1:25 PM ET
Part of the reason for record revenues was a strong canadian dollar vs weak us dollar... when the 6 teams generate a third of the revenue than currency conversion can have a huge affect.
- PhillaBully


Drop in CAD last year effectively threw the NHL's revenue forecasts off by $120M... or about ~$2M less for each team to spend.

CAD's lost almost 9% of it's value against the dollar since then, with no signs of abating.

The NHL's recent optimistic revenue projection for next year is a house of cards.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Dec 30 @ 1:28 PM ET
Drop in CAD last summer effectively threw the NHL's revenue forecasts off by $120M... or about ~$2M less for each team to spend.

CAD's lost almost 9% of it's value against the dollar since then, with no signs of abating.

The NHL's recent optimistic revenue projection for next year is a house of cards.

- Tomahawk


If Canada would just pull out of Ukraine, poop would be fine
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Dec 30 @ 1:30 PM ET
He needs to make less money.
- johndewar

It's really not a lot of money.... I mean can we play a kid with an entry level contract instead? Sure. I would just rather the defense look like this next season....

Morin-(Acquisition)
(Prospect/Acquisition)-Streit
Ghost-Schenn

I know... Its pretty grey but I dont particulary want MacDonald, Coburn and Grossmann any longer. Not that they are horrible but we need more skill on the backend for less money.

It will cause growing pains but I would rather that than watch these current Flyers put in half ass efforts every night.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Dec 30 @ 1:33 PM ET
Drop in CAD last year effectively threw the NHL's revenue forecasts off by $120M... or about ~$2M less for each team to spend.

CAD's lost almost 9% of it's value against the dollar since then, with no signs of abating.

The NHL's recent optimistic revenue projection for next year is a house of cards.

- Tomahawk



It's always a projection at this point of the season. Nothing new. The alarm bells always ring.
PhillaBully
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.20.2010

Dec 30 @ 1:35 PM ET


The Canadien dollar is only one factor in the cap. As I've stated multiple times, the value of the Canadien dollar will have an effect on how much the cap goes up. But it will go up, just as it always has.

- MJL


Tell that to the KHL
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