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Are the Kings finally vulnerable?
Why their possession stats are down, and whether they can reverse course
Originally Published: December 10, 2014
The Kings' Stanley Cup defense has not gotten off to a great start thus far this season.
Hockey analytics pioneer Rob Vollman is ESPN Insider's armchair GM this season, exploring how modern statistics can inform front-office decisions.
When the Los Angeles Kings hoisted the Stanley Cup this past June, they stood not only as the league's champions but also as the best possession team in the NHL for the previous three seasons combined -- and by quite a margin. And yet, here we are one-third of the way into the new season, and the Kings rank 22nd in terms of possession, enduring the steepest drop-off that has been observed since these metrics were first recorded eight years ago.
Based on my research, the issue starts along the defensive-zone blue line. The Kings have historically been a team that forces the dump-and-chase from opponents, but a couple of key absences and some early-season lapses have allowed opponents to enter L.A.'s zone with control of the puck more frequently than normal, and consequently to attempt far more shots.
So far, these defensive problems have been countered by exceptional play from netminders Jonathan Quick and Martin Jones, but what happens if and when they drop back down to normal? The Kings started off a strong 6-1-1 thanks to a perfect homestand, but have been a mediocre 8-7-4 since then, including a 3-4-4 record on the road, and have consequently slid to fourth in the Pacific Division. A failure by Quick to remain at the Vezina Trophy level could be all it takes for last season's champions to hit the links early this spring.
But why exactly has their possession been down so much this season, and what -- if anything -- can be done about it? Let's explore.
Possession is king
Placing all the mathematical studies aside, it makes rational sense that a drop in possession is worthy of concern, as discussed in a bit more detail in last month's piece about how to improve Corsi. Shooting and save percentages go up and down with almost complete unpredictability, but getting the puck and gaining the zone are skills that should generally remain within a team's control from game to game, and month to month.
That's why a drop in possession numbers tends to signal an eventual drop in the standings, too. Consider what happened to the Colorado Avalanche this season, or the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, or even the Minnesota Wild the season before, and it becomes obvious why a similar trend should be distressing in Los Angeles.
To illustrate the point, consider the following chart. According to a calculation that's based on the percentage of all attempted shots taken at even strength in close-game situations, the Kings have historically been in possession of the puck well over 55 percent of the time, according to the data tabulated at behindthenet.ca. Now, all of a sudden, they're down below 50 percent, and in the bottom third of the league.
Rob Vollman
Digging deeper into the numbers, the problem is almost exclusively on the defensive side of the ice. While the Kings are generating the usual number of shot attempts and scoring chances for themselves, they're allowing far more than usual from their opponents. As a quick and simple example, Quick has gone from facing a paltry 24.4 shots per 60 minutes last season to 31.2 so far this season. Without his career-high .931 save percentage, and an equally ridiculous .947 from Jones the backup, this team would already be in hot water.
Shot quality is not a factor
Whenever a team is allowing a lot more shots without allowing more goals, it's often suggested by some fans and analysts that it has simply devised a sustainable system that reduces the quality of those shots. While it remains a theoretical possibility, this strategy is yet to be proved effective to any significant degree over the long term.
Could this be what's happening in Los Angeles? Unfortunately, the unavailability of quality shot data is one of the greatest limitations to outside observers. The data we do have access to, however, does not point in the direction of reduced shot quality. For instance, based on the NHL data aggregated by the Sporting Charts Ice Tracker, we know that the average distance of the shots Quick has faced this season has decreased by only a few inches, from 33.8 to 33.1 feet, and the types of shots are essentially the same.
It's possible that the Kings are allowing fewer shots on the rush, which are generally a bit more dangerous. Based on the data compiled by David Johnson of HockeyAnalysis.com during the previous three seasons (2011-12 through 2013-14), opponents scored on 8.6 percent of such shots against the Kings, and just 6.9 percent otherwise. So if the team has found a way to reduce the 25.9 percent of opposing shots that came off the rush, which was second most in the league (ahead of only the Florida Panthers), that could certainly have an impact. Unfortunately, such data isn't currently available midseason, leaving us somewhat in the dark.
Dumping the dump-and-chase
One thing we are certain about is that the Kings are allowing a lot more shot attempts. Where are they all coming from?
Answering that requires an understanding of all the little things that possession represents. Above all, these metrics are meant as catch-all abstractions of how frequently a team wins all the little battles for the puck. If the Kings win faceoffs, block passes, create turnovers, get the puck out of the defensive zone, win neutral-zone battles, carry the puck into the offensive zone and win all the little fights to create scoring chances, then it will show in their possession totals. Which of these has been missing in Los Angeles this season?
Losing Slava Voynov to suspension has had a ripple effect on the makeup of the Kings' blue-line group.
In my view, the most likely culprit is controlled-zone entries. James Nicholson of L.A. Kings Insider has been closely studying the team's zone entries this season. That includes measuring how many attempts were made with and without control of the puck, for both the Kings and their opponents, including how many shots were generated with each entry (with and without control). Obviously, this is a very obscure and unofficial record, but it's the sort of information that analytics-savvy teams like the Kings are doubtlessly tracking for themselves.
Historically, the Kings have been a classic example of a team that forces the dump-and-chase, and therefore denies opponents a controlled entry into its defensive zone. Based on the data provided for Hockey Abstract 2014 by Corey Sznajder -- now a consultant for an unspecified NHL team -- L.A.'s opponents carried the puck into its zone just 40.0 percent of the time in 2013-14, the league's lowest rate. The Kings carried the puck in 42.5 percent of the time themselves, which was also among the lowest. Even to the eye test, there's no question that coach Darryl Sutter's system has resulted in a lot of skating and hitting at both ends throughout the regular season and the playoffs.
Nicholson's data confirms that there's no (new) problem on the offensive side of the spectrum, where the Kings have actually improved to 44.5 percent controlled entries, but that they are now allowing opponents to gain their own zone with control of the puck 45.1 percent of the time. Given that opponents average 0.64 shots per controlled entry and only 0.28 otherwise, that could easily explain the increase in shots against.
Furthermore, the Kings forced 7.8 failed entries per game through the first five games, which is counted as any time they cause a turnover or an offside. That's back when they were still winning games and doing well, possession-wise. Since then, however, they have caused just 3.6 failed entries per game. We're definitely on to something, but why is this happening?
The blue-line mix
The failure to prevent controlled-zone entries could be the consequence of a deliberate change in the defensive system by Sutter, or potentially an inability to keep the team playing the old one. After all, he isn't exactly working with the same blue line that won the Stanley Cup this past June.
Based on these pie charts of how the team's even-strength ice time has been allocated, the two most significant blue-line absences are the suspended Slava Voynov and the departed Willie Mitchell, the latter of whom signed with Florida to work on its defensive-minded second pairing. That has forced Sutter to heap extra playing time on his only remaining top-four defensemen, Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin, move Alec Martinez up into the top four with Robyn Regehr (when they're healthy), and test the team's depth by making Matt Greene a regular, and adding Brayden McNabb and Jamie McBain to the mix.
Rob Vollman
The end result isn't entirely unpredictable. Defensemen come in all different varieties, and these aren't exactly the kind that make it difficult to gain the zone. There are puck-movers who specialize in breaking out of the zone and/or gaining the offensive zone, and shutdown defensemen who tend to focus on denying entry into the defensive zone and/or clearing away screens and rebounds once they do. The loss of Voynov and Mitchell deprived Sutter of a key weapon of each variety, and left him with several nights when he had just one top pairing and a bunch of crease-clearers otherwise.
Of course, that's not to let the forwards off the hook, because they have a big responsibility for defensive play, too. Dom Luszczyszyn of the Hockey News completed an excellent analysis of how offensive shot generation has increased with only Marian Gaborik, Trevor Lewis and Tanner Pearson on the ice, the first two being the only ones who haven't allowed massive shot increases by the team's opponents. Steve Burtch went a step further and really singled out Dustin Brown and Jarret Stoll, the former similarly criticized by Vinh Cao of Bleacher Report.
The bottom line, however, is that a few blue-line absences, combined with some disappointing lapses up front, have extinguished L.A.'s reputation of being a difficult defensive zone to enter. That has had a ripple effect throughout the team's game, dragging down its overall possession numbers, and could threaten to pull it out of the playoff picture, too.
What should happen
When a team's possession numbers suddenly plummet, normally that signals an imminent drop in the standings. But when it happens to the Los Angeles Kings, the defending Stanley Cup champions and one of the more analytics-savvy teams in the NHL, it's natural to wonder if they're simply moving on to a newly developed defensive system that allows more shots of a lesser quality.
Whatever they're up to, allowing opponents to enter the defensive zone in control of the puck has resulted in a lot more shot attempts and scoring opportunities -- that certainly doesn't strike me as a winning strategy in the long term. If Quick's save percentage drops back down to normal, the Kings could become the first Stanley Cup champion since the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes to miss the playoffs entirely the following season.
