But that doesnt mean the stats lie - there are stats that will show you quality of competition, zone starts etc etc. So you may look at one stat and say thats BS and that player isnt any good but maybe he's a great possession player because he's getting all Ozone starts against terrible QOC with great linemates.

The stats dont lie people just choose not too look at the whole picture and depend on one single stat rather than looking at them as something to help understand why a player is performing a certain way.
- Joel_Eh

Correct. Look at it this way. The term 'advanced stats' itself is a misnomer. Stats are stats. Numbers.

Jim Corsi (among others) realized that tracking all shot attempts could give you a bigger sample size than shots-on-goal alone. This reduced the error in any analysis, and by chance, shot-attempts closely correlated with time-of-possession. If you have the puck more, your opponent doesn't. Therefore, you have a better chance of scoring/winning. This, in itself, is not an advanced concept.

It's the analysis of the raw data that can be simple or advanced, depending on the question you want to answer.

I'm not sure where you were going with the Ryan paragraph, but the stats are telling me exactly what my eyes are seeing. Ryan, MZ and AC are all right handed shooters (http://senstats.com/thoughts-after-five/). At even strength, score close, Ryan has 38% OZ starts, against higher QoC than his QoT. MacLean has been using these guys in a shut-down role, for whatever reason, and they're getting killed.

Michalek: 41% OZ starts, playing primarily with Smith and Lazar on the 4th line. Defensive role much? And he's good at it.

Cowen has played most (all?) of his games with EK. When he was scratched, EK played with Phillips, who dragged Ek's corsi down even more. No surprises here. Boro and Gryba played against weak competition, and were ok.

Jared, I like your blogs. But you cant say 'I'm not an expert on the subject' and then turn around and say '(with adv stats) you aren't getting the full picture'. Although there may be slight differences between venues (which is true for every player on every team, in every venue: It's just statistical noise), all of the information is there. It's all how it gets used that matters. You just can't cherry pick one statistic without looking at the other relevant factors.

I still maintain advanced stats are for fans who don't know enough about hockey and don't know what they are seeing.
- JACMAN

What a load of crap.

More accurate would be to say advanced stats are not for fans who do not understand both hockey and statistics.

While you are perfectly capable of watching the "moving pictures" on the television, and perhaps you understand the basic rules of the game, you are the fan that does not understand what they are seeing when the game is cross-referenced with advanced stats.

In the immortal words of Mark Twain

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics

.

With a minimal sample size and flawed input I find the Corsi stats can be misleading. The subjectivity between rinks can lead to misleading results. To me the best measure is goalie Save percentage and quality chances per game.

Oops... What is the definition of a quality chance?

In the immortal words of Mark Twain .

With a minimal sample size and flawed input I find the Corsi stats can be misleading. The subjectivity between rinks can lead to misleading results. To me the best measure is goalie Save percentage and quality chances per game.

Oops... What is the definition of a quality chance?
- SensItComing

I guess? If a guy has an individual CF of 2 and CA of 12, it's a pretty good indication he's getting killed territorially. Then you ask why. And try to fix it by looking at other things like zone starts, QoC, teammates' stats, WOWYs, etc. Is he slow, with other slow skaters? Is he on his weak side? The first step is identifying the problem.

Quality chances? Well, corsi has also been shown to correlate with 'scoring chances' too, but with higher sample size, and less opinion. The 'shot quality' question is another hot issue. Just ask the 14/15 Colorado Avalanche and 13/14 TML.

different subject , but wouldn't brandon gormely look good in a Sens jersey

The fact is, there is someone different in every arena keeping track of the stats, and their perception is what you are relying on by looking at certain statistical categories, and that cannot possibly be consistent from one rink to the next. Giveaways, takeaways, hits, and most real time stats are subjective.

Yes, but seeing as you play in 30 arenas a year, these things average out pretty well by game 30 or so.

That being said, there is something to the advanced stats craze that really exploded over the past summer. If you focus solely on those, however, you aren't getting the full picture. For instance, if Paul MacLean was setting his lineup based solely on advanced stats, Bobby Ryan would never see the ice. Based on his Corsi ratings so far this season, (31.48%, -17 Rel Corsi 5 on 5), Ryan is one of the least effective players in the league, and by far the worst on the team. You would have a hard time arguing that Ryan has come even close to meeting expectations, for a variety of reasons. In that case, you could use Corsi ratings to support your argument that he hasn't been good, and that is an understatement

Ryan has been one of the worst players on the team to start the year. I don’t expect it to continue, but he has been bad in 3 of 5 games so far.

How far down your list is Milan Michalek? If you are anything like me, it probably wasn't in the top 5 or even top 10. But, the evidence is there, and the fact is that Michalek's Corsi and relative Corsi ratings are both significantly higher than his teammates, and in fact in terms of 5 on 5 play, only Michalek and Mark Stone are on the positive side of the ledger for the Senators.

Michalek and Stone have both looked really good so far. Hoffman and Smith as well I expect are highly ranked in those metrics.

And, for what it is worth, the most effective defensemen this season in terms of relative corsi have been Jared Cowen, Mark Borowiecki and Eric Gryba. Cowen, who has the lowest Corsi % off-ice rating, has been so bad that he has been a scratch for 2 straight games, but the corsi numbers do not support that theory. We have seen it with our own eyes, but the stats don't support it.

Cowen is not scratched because he has been bad for entire games, in fact he has played decent most of the time so far. He is scratched because he keeps making two or three glaring, dangerous errors in judgement per game that are basic defensive coverage rules, resulting in goals against, and also giving away the puck. He also played with Erik Karlsson the first 3 games, who has been known to take a shot or two....His Corsi% may look good, but I’m betting his GF % looks nightmarish.

The number crunchers predicted the downfall of the Maple Leafs last season, based primarily on their low possession numbers and negative Corsi ratings. But if Jonathan Bernier hadn't missed the last stretch of games, they would not have missed the playoffs.

Unsubstantiated assumption.

Call me old-school, but I prefer to be able to see what is going on on the ice and forming my opinion from that. Even then, depending on your perceptions, biases and expectations you won't see the same thing I do, and that is fine, because it creates discussion and debate, which is what we are all here for. We all have our own things that we look for in the grand scheme of things, just like different coaches and general managers do.

There’s that little dig rearing it’s head again that people who pay heed to stats don’t watch hockey (hint: you can do both, stats guys aren’t counting shot attempts themselves while watching the game live). You would have to watch each game 60 times to get a good look at all players. Instead, they watch it once in the film room afterwards, and count each game event as it happens.

All I know is, the Senators have relied on and gotten good goaltending so far this season, and that has put them in a good position early on to reach the goals they have set for later. If that goaltending continues, they will be fine, but if it starts to struggle, so will the Senators, whether they are positive or negative in terms of Corsi ratings.

This is true, but it’s also obvious (Also, those crazy old stats reflect this).

Blog version without Rhetoric: Ryan has played badly, Michalek and Stone have played better than some think, Cowen has been bad despite a decent Corsi %, and our goalies have played well.

4/10, would not read again.

Listen, no offense Jared, but when you're not a fan of stats, it's best not to blog about them at all - this just sounded ignorant. I agree with the other poster who said your work was good leading up to this, and that we don't expect you to be travis. If we want to read travis, he's right over there on TSN for us.

Just stick to what you do best, and do a good job of it and we'll all be happy as pigs in poop to come here for gamedays, and get into our traditional raging arguments with Prock and Jacman on the other days.

different subject , but wouldn't brandon gormely look good in a Sens jersey
- Gosensgo89

absolutely, but probably not at the price phx would want for him (stone or zibby)

absolutely, but probably not at the price phx would want for him (stone or zibby)
- sensarmy_11

Would a p.w and shane prince not work ? maybe a Jared Cowen or greening with a package

Hi Jared,
Keep up the good work regardless if you're a fan of advanced stats or not. Personally, I don't believe someone has to be an advocate of a specific topic to have an opinion
on it. 9 out of 10, I would read this blog again.

It's a little tiring that these Sens blogs turn into an advanced statistic debate. We have a team that is on a 4 game winning streak to start the season. This is really positive stuff to see. Whether or not stats prove we are worthy of this or not, really shouldn't be a huge concern. Advanced stats, old school stats, and plain old watching how players/teams play should all be used together when analyzing. It's naive to think any one area is more valuable to know/utilize than others.

It's a little tiring that these Sens blogs turn into an advanced statistic debate. We have a team that is on a 4 game winning streak to start the season. This is really positive stuff to see. Whether or not stats prove we are worthy of this or not, really shouldn't be a huge concern. Advanced stats, old school stats, and plain old watching how players/teams play should all be used together when analyzing. It's naive to think any one area is more valuable to know/utilize than others.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I miss your GWG Girls of the day. Perhaps we can debate on bringing them back. Censorship dept. be damned. These forums would not exist if they were love-ins.

I miss your GWG Girls of the day. Perhaps we can debate on bringing them back. Censorship dept. be damned. These forums would not exist if they were love-ins.
- van halen

Ref who messaged me saying they are trying to "crack down" on that stuff. They asked politely for me to lay off.

I find it a bit silly myself. I don't really see the big deal. Bloggers are allowed to post ice girl pics as blog headliners, posters should be able to post pretty ladies too.

Ref who messaged me saying they are trying to "crack down" on that stuff. They asked politely for me to lay off.

I find it a bit silly myself. I don't really see the big deal. Bloggers are allowed to post ice girl pics as blog headliners, posters should be able to post pretty ladies too.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I support the idea of it in principle as long as there are photos posted of both women AND men in their undies, at least then it is about eye candy for both sides...but you and a lot of other posters wouldn't want to look at scantily clad photos of male actors and models, I'm guessing. Now you know how the female readers of this site might have felt, every day they came to this comment page last year...

The point made about corsi stats being biased given how they are recorded may not be a concern in a year or two.

There was an interesting pilot project being looked at by the Stars and a few other teams that Yost covered for another site this summer, where they are looking to use RFID tags (which they use to track things like cattle movements through the food processing supply chain to study where food illnesses originate from) on players during games where there are precision cameras tracking the every move of a player on the ice. Soon (with 3-5 years) the cameras set up in Dallas will be put into every NHL rink. It's relatively cheap (less than the salary of an avg. NHL 4th liner - not Ottawa's 4th line - for one year), easy and does not limit a players skating since they are housed on a sticker placed on the player's elbow or shin pads.

This means that regardless of the rink, there will be accurate data points taken about player performance to measure not just Corsi and Fenwick, but also things like tracking defensive coverage in both zones, offensive and defensive zone breakouts, shot and deflection distances and their impact on scoring trends, and other topics to see where coaches should focus attention during practices with each player. The attention being paid to analytics is because of the advantages that 2nd generation advanced stats tech like this provides to measuring the effectiveness of coaching strategies and long term player performance.

Hockey in 15-20 years will be a science, not a sport. The real question at that point is will it still be entertaining enough to be worth watching if we can pretty much predict the outcome of each game before puck drop and coaching becomes more and more like a chess game with each passing season?

I dunno if I'm on board yet or not, but it will be a fun learning experience.

I support the idea of it in principle as long as there are photos posted of both women AND men in their undies, at least then it is about eye candy for both sides...but you and a lot of other posters wouldn't want to look at scantily clad photos of male actors and models, I'm guessing. Now you know how the female readers of this site might have felt, every day they came to this comment page last year...
- ahjnkn

I'm alright with not being able to post the photos, but keep it consistent. Homepage of hockeybuzz has an article with "Hockeybuzz Podcast" with a photo of an ice girl. So very relevant to the article. That can be posted, but putting an image of a girl in the comments can't be now. There is a bit of hypocriticalness among the site. Now you know how this reader feels.

Would a p.w and shane prince not work ? maybe a Jared Cowen or greening with a package
- Gosensgo89

phx is loaded on D, they need forwards. they won't trade their best D prospect for other d-men who are older, more expensive, and probably not as good.

i imagine the cheapest we'd get him for is puempel and a pick

phx is loaded on D, they need forwards. they won't trade their best D prospect for other d-men who are older, more expensive, and probably not as good.

i imagine the cheapest we'd get him for is puempel and a pick
- sensarmy_11

Would you make that trade if they asked for pumepel ?

Would you make that trade if they asked for pumepel ?
- Gosensgo89

Personally I'd be willing to give up Puempel along with both seconds this year if it got us Gormely, we'd have to move at least one of the guys on the left side first though.

Would someone take Wiercioch for a 2nd and a 3rd? That would be sweet.

What about Gryba for a 5th or 6th? Surely a bottom feeding team would give that up to buy the young guys some time to develop and someone to help protect them.

Would you make that trade if they asked for pumepel ?
- Gosensgo89

definitelty......would have to move another dman too though

I'm alright with not being able to post the photos, but keep it consistent. Homepage of hockeybuzz has an article with "Hockeybuzz Podcast" with a photo of an ice girl. So very relevant to the article. That can be posted, but putting an image of a girl in the comments can't be now. There is a bit of hypocriticalness among the site. Now you know how this reader feels.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I agree, the double standard is ridiculous. Hopefully they took some stock photos of the male 'ice guys' from that one game trial experiment by the Flyers in preseason this year.

Would you make that trade if they asked for pumepel ?
- Gosensgo89

I wouldn't, but only because after puempel our depth of potential scoring wingers dries up pretty quick. Every other viable prospect (hoffman, stone, lazar) aside from Prince is already in the NHL.

If we keep up this kind of record until the deadline, we could maybe explore giving up our first this year, maybe something like this:

PHX: Gormley, David Moss
OTT: 1st 2015, Shane Prince

I agree, the double standard is ridiculous. Hopefully they took some stock photos of the male 'ice guys' from that one game trial experiment by the Flyers in preseason this year.
- ahjnkn

The defense behind Karlsson makes Methot's agent really happy. I don't know how everyone else feels but $5M just seems way to high. I'd say 4.5 for 5 years is MORE than fair. I hate to say this cuz I love the guy but I'd wait till march to make a decision

phx is loaded on D, they need forwards. they won't trade their best D prospect for other d-men who are older, more expensive, and probably not as good.

i imagine the cheapest we'd get him for is puempel and a pick
- sensarmy_11

Ariozna*

Ya looking at them they have 3Dmen that can move the puck really well that are left handed: Yandle, OEL, and the prospect Gormley.

Sens have a lot of Dmen but it's quantity over quality (after Karlsson). Cowen has a high potential. Methot should be resigned. I wouldn't mind trading Methot if it got us Yandle or OEL (I really would throw so much at aroiza)

If we keep up this kind of record until the deadline, we could maybe explore giving up our first this year, maybe something like this:

PHX: Gormley, David Moss
OTT: 1st 2015, Shane Prince
- ahjnkn

no more forwards. I don't mind the gormley kid but I'm think Ottawa needs a more accomplished Dman on the left side. I wish we got Leddy from CHI or Boychuk. Murray has the prospects and picks