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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: I Got 99 Problems And 88 Ain’t One
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Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Sep 21 @ 10:25 PM ET
Well, I hope you and the Blackhawks are right about Johns.

But I want to see it from him. He won't be playing 30 games a year anymore on weekends against kids with bird cages for facial protection. It's a big jump up to being ready to play 82+ games a year and being physically challenged every night to see what you are made of.

- RickJ

And what is failed to mention about Johns and is a huge concern for me, he wasn't on ND's 1st PK unit as a senior. Or at least in four or so game I watched.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Sep 21 @ 10:45 PM ET
Call me very skeptical about your short term forecast on Stephen Johns.
- RickJ


Physically mature, can skate and mash people, can pass the puck, just needs to play at the professional level.

Log jam now so no need to rush. At a minimum should be a solid player with physical upside.

Seabrook does more stupid things with the puck than Oduya and had an awful habit of letting guys walk behind him. @5-6 million I think his mistakes are frustrating but tolerable. The 7-9 he gets on an open market seems excessive.

In my opinion sharp is the most expendable as better defenders are harder to replace for a team that I think is going all in this year.

After this year with the $ involved to stay relatively competitive they're going to have to sacrifice points or maybe even a year to get some kids acclimated. One or both of Seabrook and Sharp probably make the most sense to get a good return.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Sep 21 @ 10:52 PM ET
Physically mature, can skate and mash people, can pass the puck, just needs to play at the professional level.

Log jam now so no need to rush. At a minimum should be a solid player with physical upside.

Seabrook does more stupid things with the puck than Oduya and had an awful habit of letting guys walk behind him. @5-6 million I think his mistakes are frustrating but tolerable. The 7-9 he gets on an open market seems excessive.

In my opinion sharp is the most expendable as better defenders are harder to replace for a team that I think is going all in this year.

After this year with the $ involved to stay relatively competitive they're going to have to sacrifice points or maybe even a year to get some kids acclimated. One or both of Seabrook and Sharp probably make the most sense to get a good return.

- fattybeef


Wouldn't be any problem getting rid of Seabrook. Replacing him back there is a totally different matter.
wonthecup10
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 02.05.2008

Sep 21 @ 10:54 PM ET
It very well could be all three of Sharp, Bickell, and Versteeg moving next summer.
- EKolb13

Christmas couldn't come too soon for me! Iamwilling to give 15&24&maybe 86 a clear shot at making the team sooner than later.When it comes to Sharp all that stuff about his off ice stuff I wouldn't doubt probably has some truth to it but the spin machine did a good job of burying it.People made him out to be more than he is. I could name 5 players I would take right now over pretty boy # 10. I'll start with #17 on the Bruins for 1 .Backes might be another 1, I said MIGHT, Bobby Ryan might be a third 1. Bickell ,I've said enough before,no sense repeating,& Versteeg should have never been brought back. I hope Stan comes out of nowhere with a deal for 1 of those 3 THIS year, hopefully by the start of the year.
z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Sep 21 @ 11:11 PM ET
S-H-A-R-P

He gone

- Ogilthorpe2



Next year. Be foolish to trade him this year.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Sep 22 @ 12:09 AM ET
Barkers most success came with Q.
- artlarson


When did Barker truly have success?
prd797
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Scotland
Joined: 06.17.2012

Sep 22 @ 7:24 AM ET
When did Barker truky have success?
- wiz1901


Maybe 'Barker's seasons with a lesser amount of failure' makes more sense...
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Sep 22 @ 7:55 AM ET
Next year. Be foolish to trade him this year.
- z1990z

Yeah, well... That's just like your opinion man.
PlayerX
Los Angeles Kings
Location: CA
Joined: 08.14.2014

Sep 22 @ 7:55 AM ET
What I can't figure out is how you Hawks fans don't feel more worried than you do. You're 2.2 over the cap now, and the Kane and Toews deals haven't even kicked in yet. So this 2.2 million dollar pain today is gonna be a potential 8.4 million dollar pain next year. Or does someone think the cap is gonna go up more than 8.4? No matter how much it goes up, you gotta figure the Twin Vaults deal will eat it all up and then some.
I also think it's somewhat optimistic, and I'm being kind, to think that your roster needs to lose a D-man. Bickell would seem obvious to go except probably nobody wants that contract for that player; the dreaded un-tradeable contract. Or maybe peeps think his size is important, or maybe even tragically think he is slotted to replace Hossa when that amazing specimen succumbs to age.
The Hawks need to improve defensively, and they are hamstrung Cap wise for 2 years at least. Top-heavy anyone?
Just the box score from Kings-Hawks game 2 should show it, but the Hawks need to be able to defend better; not score more.
Hear talk about Hossa's not scoring enough, or Sharp's drought. Fact is you guys scored plenty of goals, but you gave up leads and gave up ties and as a result gave up games. Any roster talk should include, or really focus on, how to stop the opponents from scoring.
Instead the focus here is on how good Kane is gonna get. Unless that projected career path arcs more toward Selke than Richard, how much impact can Kane's possible improvement make anyway?
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Sep 22 @ 8:31 AM ET
What I can't figure out is how you Hawks fans don't feel more worried than you do. You're 2.2 over the cap now, and the Kane and Toews deals haven't even kicked in yet. So this 2.2 million dollar pain today is gonna be a potential 8.4 million dollar pain next year. Or does someone think the cap is gonna go up more than 8.4? No matter how much it goes up, you gotta figure the Twin Vaults deal will eat it all up and then some.
I also think it's somewhat optimistic, and I'm being kind, to think that your roster needs to lose a D-man. Bickell would seem obvious to go except probably nobody wants that contract for that player; the dreaded un-tradeable contract. Or maybe peeps think his size is important, or maybe even tragically think he is slotted to replace Hossa when that amazing specimen succumbs to age.
The Hawks need to improve defensively, and they are hamstrung Cap wise for 2 years at least. Top-heavy anyone?
Just the box score from Kings-Hawks game 2 should show it, but the Hawks need to be able to defend better; not score more.
Hear talk about Hossa's not scoring enough, or Sharp's drought. Fact is you guys scored plenty of goals, but you gave up leads and gave up ties and as a result gave up games. Any roster talk should include, or really focus on, how to stop the opponents from scoring.
Instead the focus here is on how good Kane is gonna get. Unless that projected career path arcs more toward Selke than Richard, how much impact can Kane's possible improvement make anyway?

- PlayerX


You are on top of the hockey world, so who can argue with your analysis?

Speaking of untradeable contracts and declining performance going forward - I'd put Mike Richards and Dustin Brown in that category too. And they will look even worse when Anze Kopitar needs to be signed for about the same money as Toews and Kane.

And how many games would you expect oft injured Marion Gaborik to play throughout the duration of his contract?

Good luck on the upcoming season, that's a tough division just like the one the Hawks are in. And enjoy watching a full season of Robin Regehr on the blueline.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Sep 22 @ 8:52 AM ET
You are on top of the hockey world, so who can argue with your analysis?

Speaking of untradeable contracts and declining performance going forward - I'd put Mike Richards and Dustin Brown in that category too. And they will look even worse when Anze Kopitar needs to be signed for about the same money as Toews and Kane.

And how many games would you expect oft injured Marion Gaborik to play throughout the duration of his contract?

Good luck on the upcoming season, that's a tough division just like the one the Hawks are in. And enjoy watching a full season of Robin Regehr on the blueline.

- RickJ

Good reply Rick, it's easy for fans of other teams to overlook their own team's problems.
PlayerX
Los Angeles Kings
Location: CA
Joined: 08.14.2014

Sep 22 @ 9:03 AM ET
You are on top of the hockey world, so who can argue with your analysis?

Speaking of untradeable contracts and declining performance going forward - I'd put Mike Richards and Dustin Brown in that category too. And they will look even worse when Anze Kopitar needs to be signed for about the same money as Toews and Kane.

And how many games would you expect oft injured Marion Gaborik to play throughout the duration of his contract?

Good luck on the upcoming season, that's a tough division just like the one the Hawks are in. And enjoy watching a full season of Robin Regehr on the blueline.

- RickJ


First, here is my take on Mike Richards. It's looooong...http://holdthepoint.com/2...s-center-of-the-universe/
Second, we love Regehr. Third, Dustin Brown? Dude is a stud, we base success on playoffs here. Sure the Kings have problems, but Gaborik is the only legit concern, and concerns aren't problems, their conjecture. As for signing Kopi, that will add 3 mill to the Cap. That's not a worry, either. That's the actual point here, isn't it? we have cap room if the cap goes up. Hawks, not so much.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Sep 22 @ 9:32 AM ET
First, here is my take on Mike Richards. It's looooong...http://holdthepoint.com/2...s-center-of-the-universe/
Second, we love Regehr. Third, Dustin Brown? Dude is a stud, we base success on playoffs here. Sure the Kings have problems, but Gaborik is the only legit concern, and concerns aren't problems, their conjecture. As for signing Kopi, that will add 3 mill to the Cap. That's not a worry, either. That's the actual point here, isn't it? we have cap room if the cap goes up. Hawks, not so much.

- PlayerX

The Hawks are essentially one player over the cap this year which is hardly the end of the world. Leddy is probably the guy they want to move because they have cheaper replacements who are at least his equal defensively. If they can't move him, somebody else will go. So be it.

Next year will be a challenge but there is a time to move older, more expensive players out to make room for youth that is ready to play. Sort of like when Lombardi moves out Stoll and Williams because they are too expensive or too old and he has to pay Toffoli and Pearson what they are worth.

And he will have to find more money to pay Muzzin and Martinez because they aren't going to play for $1M / year anymore.

The key to staying near the top is to draft, develop and harvest the farm system. Dealing with a contract mistake isn't that tough. I think both Lombardi and Bowman have a good handle on the longer term picture.





dsav123
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.22.2012

Sep 22 @ 9:33 AM ET
First, here is my take on Mike Richards. It's looooong...http://holdthepoint.com/2...s-center-of-the-universe/
Second, we love Regehr. Third, Dustin Brown? Dude is a stud, we base success on playoffs here. Sure the Kings have problems, but Gaborik is the only legit concern, and concerns aren't problems, their conjecture. As for signing Kopi, that will add 3 mill to the Cap. That's not a worry, either. That's the actual point here, isn't it? we have cap room if the cap goes up. Hawks, not so much.

- PlayerX


Certainly the Hawks have some cap concerns going forward (nothing like post 2010 SC, imo) but so do the Kings...before they even get to Kopi, they have to deal with new contracts/replacements for:
Pearson
Toffoli,
Williams,
Stoll
Martinez,
Muzzin,
Regehr,
Clifford &
A backup goalie

all will be FA/RFA after this season.
All tolled, 11 spots with a little less than $14 mil (according to capgeek), that's $1.3M per and my guess is Stoll, Williams, Toffoli & Pearson will each require more than that.
Only then do they get to deal with Kopi.

So after this season and with with Richards signed until 19-20 & Brown signed until 2000 forever, they will have their own cap issues in short order...

and there you have what i like to refer to as a glass house kind of thing...
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 22 @ 10:09 AM ET
What I can't figure out is how you Hawks fans don't feel more worried than you do. You're 2.2 over the cap now, and the Kane and Toews deals haven't even kicked in yet. So this 2.2 million dollar pain today is gonna be a potential 8.4 million dollar pain next year. Or does someone think the cap is gonna go up more than 8.4? No matter how much it goes up, you gotta figure the Twin Vaults deal will eat it all up and then some.
I also think it's somewhat optimistic, and I'm being kind, to think that your roster needs to lose a D-man. Bickell would seem obvious to go except probably nobody wants that contract for that player; the dreaded un-tradeable contract. Or maybe peeps think his size is important, or maybe even tragically think he is slotted to replace Hossa when that amazing specimen succumbs to age.
The Hawks need to improve defensively, and they are hamstrung Cap wise for 2 years at least. Top-heavy anyone?
Just the box score from Kings-Hawks game 2 should show it, but the Hawks need to be able to defend better; not score more.
Hear talk about Hossa's not scoring enough, or Sharp's drought. Fact is you guys scored plenty of goals, but you gave up leads and gave up ties and as a result gave up games. Any roster talk should include, or really focus on, how to stop the opponents from scoring.
Instead the focus here is on how good Kane is gonna get. Unless that projected career path arcs more toward Selke than Richard, how much impact can Kane's possible improvement make anyway?

- PlayerX


I think all of us know the cap hole the Hawks are in:

Toews and Kane - $8.4
Saad and Kruger - $3.0 (I hope)
This year's excess - $2.2
Next year's cap increase - $5.0 (I hope)

Have to dump at least $9.0 in salary between this year and next year.

And that doesn't include increases for Oduya and Leddy (whoever is still here).

Which is why almost every post hear talks about making this year's team the Cup contender - making this year's team as good as it can be - because we may be looking at a couple of years of transition while waiting for younger players develop (especially on the blue line) and the cap to catch up with the cap hits.

Defense? Yes - needs to improve - that's a forward/goalie responsibility as much as a blue line issue - Q only had 9 (at most) forwards he wanted to go to against LA - if (IF) Bickell and Versteeg rebound, Richards works out, Sharp rebounds, Morin works out, hopefully Q can roll 4 defensively responsible lines. And CRAWFORD has to be better.

And, assuming Leddy or Oduya are moved, then Runblad, Cumiskey, Dahlbeck, Clendenning, Johns - some combination has to take charge at 5/6/7.

I think we're plenty worried.
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Sep 22 @ 10:19 AM ET
I think all of us know the cap hole the Hawks are in:

Toews and Kane - $8.4
Saad and Kruger - $3.0 (I hope)
This year's excess - $2.2
Next year's cap increase - $5.0 (I hope)

Have to dump at least $9.0 in salary between this year and next year.

And that doesn't include increases for Oduya and Leddy (whoever is still here).

Which is why almost every post hear talks about making this year's team the Cup contender - making this year's team as good as it can be - because we may be looking at a couple of years of transition while waiting for younger players develop (especially on the blue line) and the cap to catch up with the cap hits.

Defense? Yes - needs to improve - that's a forward/goalie responsibility as much as a blue line issue - Q only had 9 (at most) forwards he wanted to go to against LA - if (IF) Bickell and Versteeg rebound, Richards works out, Sharp rebounds, Morin works out, hopefully Q can roll 4 defensively responsible lines. And CRAWFORD has to be better.

And, assuming Leddy or Oduya are moved, then Runblad, Cumiskey, Dahlbeck, Clendenning, Johns - some combination has to take charge at 5/6/7.

I think we're plenty worried.

- StLBravesFan


Says it all.
Nice wrap up.

mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Sep 22 @ 10:25 AM ET
I think all of us know the cap hole the Hawks are in:

Toews and Kane - $8.4
Saad and Kruger - $3.0 (I hope)
This year's excess - $2.2
Next year's cap increase - $5.0 (I hope)

Have to dump at least $9.0 in salary between this year and next year.

And that doesn't include increases for Oduya and Leddy (whoever is still here).

Which is why almost every post hear talks about making this year's team the Cup contender - making this year's team as good as it can be - because we may be looking at a couple of years of transition while waiting for younger players develop (especially on the blue line) and the cap to catch up with the cap hits.

Defense? Yes - needs to improve - that's a forward/goalie responsibility as much as a blue line issue - Q only had 9 (at most) forwards he wanted to go to against LA - if (IF) Bickell and Versteeg rebound, Richards works out, Sharp rebounds, Morin works out, hopefully Q can roll 4 defensively responsible lines. And CRAWFORD has to be better.

And, assuming Leddy or Oduya are moved, then Runblad, Cumiskey, Dahlbeck, Clendenning, Johns - some combination has to take charge at 5/6/7.

I think we're plenty worried.

- StLBravesFan




100% correct.


But its about this year . Like it should be every year.


This year, no mater who gets moved out the Hawks are loaded.

My greater concern is that the WEST IS A MURDERS' row of teams .....

LAK, ANA , SJ , Hawks, Blues, Wild , Avalanche, Stars , - all fantastic teams

Van , Arizona, Nashville , - All competitive

Oilers - tons of offense .

The West is so nasty .

Cup-Bearer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 03.14.2014

Sep 22 @ 10:45 AM ET
Or you could have a Dahlbeck/Rundblad/Rozsival rotation on the 3rd paring?
- EKolb13


When you watch game 6 vs Boston and game 7 vs the Kings a few things stand out
Leddy in dog house
Rosy was terrific 2 years ago, last year a step behind, now ???
Zues many steps behind
Frolik

I agree that you have the D rotation correct with Rosy seeing far less time than ever.
PlayerX
Los Angeles Kings
Location: CA
Joined: 08.14.2014

Sep 22 @ 11:07 AM ET
Certainly the Hawks have some cap concerns going forward (nothing like post 2010 SC, imo) but so do the Kings...before they even get to Kopi, they have to deal with new contracts/replacements for:
Pearson
Toffoli,
Williams,
Stoll
Martinez,
Muzzin,
Regehr,
Clifford &
A backup goalie

all will be FA/RFA after this season.
All tolled, 11 spots with a little less than $14 mil (according to capgeek), that's $1.3M per and my guess is Stoll, Williams, Toffoli & Pearson will each require more than that.
Only then do they get to deal with Kopi.

So after this season and with with Richards signed until 19-20 & Brown signed until 2000 forever, they will have their own cap issues in short order...

and there you have what i like to refer to as a glass house kind of thing...

- dsav123


Glass house sounds right but no. Nobody is throwing stones. The article here is about Kane, and the Hawks going forward. My comment was that going forward the Hawks, IMO, would do better to improve defensively and dumping Leedy does not do that, plus the 88 and 19 contracts make significant improvement very difficult. I did not come here and say the Kings are perfect, but they are in a much better spot cap wise.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 22 @ 11:19 AM ET
Glass house sounds right but no. Nobody is throwing stones. The article here is about Kane, and the Hawks going forward. My comment was that going forward the Hawks, IMO, would do better to improve defensively and dumping Leedy does not do that, plus the 88 and 19 contracts make significant improvement very difficult. I did not come here and say the Kings are perfect, but they are in a much better spot cap wise.
- PlayerX


The only competitive teams that are in a good cap place are those that balance contributing ELC-players with expensive core veterans.

So far, in the cap era, the Hawks have been able to move in solid ELC contributors like Saad, Shaw, Kruger, Smith, Leddy (yes, him too) into the line-up.

Going forward, they need to have Morin, McNeill, Nordstrom, Dahlbeck, Johns, Taraveinan (yes, him too) come thru to replace the departing vets, whoever they may be.
PlayerX
Los Angeles Kings
Location: CA
Joined: 08.14.2014

Sep 22 @ 11:23 AM ET
The only competitive teams that are in a good cap place are those that balance contributing ELC-players with expensive core veterans.

So far, in the cap era, the Hawks have been able to move in solid ELC contributors like Saad, Shaw, Kruger, Smith, Leddy (yes, him too) into the line-up.

Going forward, they need to have Morin, McNeill, Nordstrom, Dahlbeck, Johns, Taraveinan (yes, him too) come thru to replace the departing vets, whoever they may be.

- StLBravesFan


Gotta say I was amazed how Bowman lost all the guys from the first Cup and still won another, then threatened a third.
Cup-Bearer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 03.14.2014

Sep 22 @ 11:27 AM ET
I think all of us know the cap hole the Hawks are in:

Toews and Kane - $8.4
Saad and Kruger - $3.0 (I hope)
This year's excess - $2.2
Next year's cap increase - $5.0 (I hope)

Have to dump at least $9.0 in salary between this year and next year.

And that doesn't include increases for Oduya and Leddy (whoever is still here).

Which is why almost every post hear talks about making this year's team the Cup contender - making this year's team as good as it can be - because we may be looking at a couple of years of transition while waiting for younger players develop (especially on the blue line) and the cap to catch up with the cap hits.

Defense? Yes - needs to improve - that's a forward/goalie responsibility as much as a blue line issue - Q only had 9 (at most) forwards he wanted to go to against LA - if (IF) Bickell and Versteeg rebound, Richards works out, Sharp rebounds, Morin works out, hopefully Q can roll 4 defensively responsible lines. And CRAWFORD has to be better.

And, assuming Leddy or Oduya are moved, then Runblad, Cumiskey, Dahlbeck, Clendenning, Johns - some combination has to take charge at 5/6/7.

I think we're plenty worried.

- StLBravesFan


This is why the Johansen mess in CBJ is of interest, Should his agent get the money they are looking for, Saad's number could be close to double what we are hoping for. I think the number for Saad will be closer to 4.3 million, and that only if CBJ stands firm
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Sep 22 @ 11:41 AM ET
This is why the Johansen mess in CBJ is of interest, Should his agent get the money they are looking for, Saad's number could be close to double what we are hoping for. I think the number for Saad will be closer to 4.3 million, and that only if CBJ stands firm
- Cup-Bearer

When Brandon Saad becomes a 6'3" #1 center he can compare salary notes with Ryan Johansen.

Until then, his comparables are with wingers like Max Paccioretty and a few others around the league. Over $4M if he has a good season.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Sep 22 @ 11:45 AM ET
When Brandon Saad becomes a 6'3" #1 center he can compare salary notes with Ryan Johansen.

Until then, his comparables are with wingers like Max Paccioretty and a few others around the league. Over $4M if he has a good season.

- RickJ





Cup-Bearer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 03.14.2014

Sep 22 @ 11:48 AM ET
When Brandon Saad becomes a 6'3" #1 center he can compare salary notes with Ryan Johansen.

Until then, his comparables are with wingers like Max Paccioretty and a few others around the league. Over $4M if he has a good season.

- RickJ


Noted, my point, much like the Towes/Kane sighning effecting high end players, it could raise the bar going foward for players coming off their ELC's. Agreed he is a stud center
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