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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Do Penguins Play Better With Backup Goaltenders In Net?
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ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Sep 16 @ 12:44 PM ET
Did you not watch the Columbus series last year? He was not good when he needed to be. Neither was the rest of the team.

Rags series I thought he was fine.

- sammy87


Did fine in most of that series. So there!
PghPens668771
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 11.26.2013

Sep 16 @ 12:46 PM ET
A big problem with these statistics is that they only take into account the quantity of shots against, saves, etc., not the quality. I have noticed for years that the team plays much more aggressive offensively in front of MAF than they do in front of backups. This often results in MAF facing less but much higher quality shots - something all goaltenders in the league would have trouble with. When the backups are in the team often backs off the offense a bit, allowing for more shots against the backup goalie but usually lesser quality shots because the team is better positioned defensively (kind of like most of the shots the Pens had against the Rangers for the last three games last playoffs - mostly from the point and tops of the circles, shots that have little chance of scoring).

This strategy has worked for the Pens in the regular season but not the playoffs because of how much more aggressive and trapping defenses are in the playoffs. Combine this with a fast transition game from the opponents and MAF doesn't have a chance. Neither Brodeur, Roy, or Hasek in their primes could have stopped the high quality shots the Pens gave up in the 2012 playoffs. I am hoping that the new coach can instill in the players that playoff hockey is different than regular season hockey and that you just can't overextend and force the offense in playoff hockey.

I am fairly certain that if you asked the top forwards in the league like Crosby what they would rather have in a game, three breakaways or 15 shots from the tops of the circles they would all take the three breakaway chances. Sure, it will only show up as three shots instead of 15 in the stats but these three shots have a much higher chance of scoring. To a lesser extent this same concept applies to goaltenders. Would most goaltenders rather face 15 shots, mostly odd-man breaks and a few breakaways or 35 shots, all in even-man situations with the defense in position and mostly from beyond the face-off dots. I think most goalies would take the latter. One of the reasons MAF is so good in shootouts is that he has had a lot of practice - not just in team practices but in real situations with all the odd-man breaks the team gives up and with the defensemen like Orpik and Scuderi being so slow and out of position most of the time.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Sep 16 @ 12:48 PM ET
It would depend on the goalie market at deadline time. doubt the pens go with griess into the playoffs. I could actually see them try to sign fluery to a 1 or 2 year deal, buy time until murray and/or jarry are ready. Fluery would certainly be the best goalie available next year. not sure thats the right move, but its one I could see them make.
- ChrisMS


Valid point. I definitely think trading Fleury is highly unlikely. But thought it was worth bringing up if Greiss was playing really well. Look at it this way, if were trading a major piece (plus) to bring back a top 6 forward and need to move significant salary as well, would you rather have Martin or Fleury for a cup run? Assuming both would walk in Free Agency.

Also, to your second point, I'm not so sure Fleury would accept a 1 or 2 year deal
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Sep 16 @ 12:49 PM ET
Did fine in most of that series. So there!
- ChrisMS


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfT2jlkqtLI

Every other goalie in the league makes that save.
holeinone
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 07.03.2007

Sep 16 @ 12:53 PM ET
In the playoffs he is nothing short of a disaster. Give him a one way ticket out of the burgh Enough is enough
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Sep 16 @ 12:53 PM ET
Valid point. I definitely think trading Fleury is highly unlikely. But thought it was worth bringing up if Greiss was playing really well. Look at it this way, if were trading a major piece (plus) to bring back a top 6 forward and need to move significant salary as well, would you rather have Martin or Fleury for a cup run? Assuming both would walk in Free Agency.

Also, to your second point, I'm not so sure Fleury would accept a 1 or 2 year deal

- YouMeAndDupuis9

Yeah. But he seems to want to stay. Maybe
holeinone
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 07.03.2007

Sep 16 @ 12:55 PM ET
Valid point. I definitely think trading Fleury is highly unlikely. But thought it was worth bringing up if Greiss was playing really well. Look at it this way, if were trading a major piece (plus) to bring back a top 6 forward and need to move significant salary as well, would you rather have Martin or Fleury for a cup run? Assuming both would walk in Free Agency.

Also, to your second point, I'm not so sure Fleury would accept a 1 or 2 year deal

- YouMeAndDupuis9


Who cares. Let him walk and finally find a worthwhile goalie for the playoffs. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Sep 16 @ 12:56 PM ET
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfT2jlkqtLI

Every other goalie in the league makes that save.

- sammy87


And after watching that goal. Im glad Nisk is gone, that was pick up level of D on that play.

And if you watch the horrendous tying G, Scuds let 2 Bluejackets beat him down low on a dump in!
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Sep 16 @ 12:56 PM ET
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfT2jlkqtLI

Every other goalie in the league makes that save.

- sammy87

You Could do that to hasek Roy mb. Every goalie flubs.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Sep 16 @ 12:58 PM ET
I don't see any way that a deadline deal could happen... MAF would have to be getting outplayed. Even if their starter is out, what contender would want a questionable playoff goalie who isn't playing great in the regular season?

Maybe a mid season "hockey trade" could happen, but it would have to be a perfect situation. Like if early in the year Carey Price blows his knee out, maybe Montreal would look to Fleury for a 1 season replacement over Budaj? I have no idea, I just can't see someone going after Fleury unless something really unexpected happens. Even then, it might make more sense to go after a good young backup than Fleury.

- rival22


Agree. It would take a special set of circumstances. But he will be the best UFA goalie out there....it's unlikely, but you never know.
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Sep 16 @ 1:00 PM ET
You Could do that to hasek Roy mb. Every goalie flubs.
- ChrisMS


Not nearly as often or when it counts. This never happens to Brodeur.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQGz9UoKOKo
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Sep 16 @ 1:00 PM ET
Yeah. But he seems to want to stay. Maybe
- ChrisMS


I believe Fleury would like to stay and maybe even take a bit of a discount on his market value to stay...but I dont see him agreeing to a short term deal. He will likely want 5 years, imo
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Sep 16 @ 1:03 PM ET
I believe Fleury would like to stay and maybe even take a bit of a discount on his market value to stay...but I dont see him agreeing to a short term deal. He will likely want 5 years, imo
- YouMeAndDupuis9


I would take MAF back at $3/yr. That's 2 mil you can throw at a top 6 or D. He just isn't worth 5 at what he brings anymore. If Griess plays well and they keep him and MAF together at 5 after this year, then that's pretty good IMO.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Sep 16 @ 1:04 PM ET
Not nearly as often or when it counts. This never happens to Brodeur.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQGz9UoKOKo

- sammy87

Does. Sorry. Did
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Sep 16 @ 1:05 PM ET
Does. Sorry. Did
- ChrisMS


Are you comparing MAF to Brodeur?
Ben37
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: One of the Most Respected Hockeybuzz Posters, AB
Joined: 04.07.2010

Sep 16 @ 1:24 PM ET
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfT2jlkqtLI

Every other goalie in the league makes that save.

- sammy87


You do know that every goalie who has ever played a few games in the NHL has let in a bad goal. Just because it is the goalie who you want off your favorite team it doesn't make it any worse or better.

We're starting to sound like Canuck fans. Where everything was Luongo's fault.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Sep 16 @ 1:26 PM ET
Greiss will work just fine for a few years until Jarry can develop into a nhl goalie. Fleury had pretty much his entire contract length to prove that he could be that solid playoff goalie he ONCE was and he has yet to prove anything. Even if he posts solid numbers in the post season, the only way i see fleury getting an extension is if they win the SC and fleury is clearly the mvp.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Sep 16 @ 1:28 PM ET
I would take MAF back at $3/yr. That's 2 mil you can throw at a top 6 or D. He just isn't worth 5 at what he brings anymore. If Griess plays well and they keep him and MAF together at 5 after this year, then that's pretty good IMO.
- sammy87


Unfortunatley a team will throw 4-5 mil at him, especially with the cap expected to go up another 4 mil or so. But i actually wouldnt mind him coming back at 3 mil for 3 years, especially if greiss proves to be a solid starter. I like what the blues did a couple years ago and used halak and elliot evenly throughout the season, so when the playoffs can, no one really knew who would be starting
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Sep 16 @ 1:31 PM ET
A big problem with these statistics is that they only take into account the quantity of shots against, saves, etc., not the quality.
- PghPens668771


Incorrect.

http://grantland.com/the-...dvanced-stats-in-the-nhl/

This is where you’ve probably started mumbling about shot quality, since Corsi and Fenwick and any variations seem to assume that all shots are created equal. That’s obviously not true, since a breakaway or a goalmouth tap-in are more likely to result in a goal than an unscreened shot from the point. But as it turns out, there’s little evidence that teams or players can get consistently outshot while still getting better chances. And while there have been efforts to track scoring chances as opposed to just shot attempts, the results usually just wind up mapping pretty well to each other. So over the long term, we can largely ignore shot quality — not because it doesn’t exist, but because it tends to even out over time.


The article that Sean McIndoe is referencing can be found here. It is written by Eric Tlusky, one of the leaders in the field.

http://nhlnumbers.com/201...g-chances-and-shot-totals
powerhouse
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Columbia , MD
Joined: 11.28.2006

Sep 16 @ 1:34 PM ET
Not nearly as often or when it counts. This never happens to Brodeur.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQGz9UoKOKo

- sammy87


Classic Fleury. Just. Classic.
Topshelf Mountain
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Knoxville, TN
Joined: 07.26.2007

Sep 16 @ 1:56 PM ET
Classic Fleury. Just. Classic.
- powerhouse


Barrasso had the same quality!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_RZ9vX8pkE
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Sep 16 @ 2:16 PM ET
Unfortunatley a team will throw 4-5 mil at him, especially with the cap expected to go up another 4 mil or so. But i actually wouldnt mind him coming back at 3 mil for 3 years, especially if greiss proves to be a solid starter. I like what the blues did a couple years ago and used halak and elliot evenly throughout the season, so when the playoffs can, no one really knew who would be starting
- drummer829


That exactly where I stand. I love MAF, he's hard to hate, but man is he frustrating! But the last 3 or 4 playoffs, he has just melted down and not necessarily stole any games. I really hope he has a career year this year. I will say the D in front of him has been horrid. Nisk just let that guy walk right in. Scuds lets 2 F's beat him on a dump in.
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Sep 16 @ 2:18 PM ET
Barrasso had the same quality!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_RZ9vX8pkE

- Topshelf Mountain


That's gotta be at the end of his career? 90's hockey was the best!
Topshelf Mountain
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Knoxville, TN
Joined: 07.26.2007

Sep 16 @ 2:22 PM ET
That's gotta be at the end of his career? 90's hockey was the best!
- sammy87


He gave up brutal goals in the series which shall not be named also. In the '96 series he was 12 years in.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Sep 16 @ 2:24 PM ET
Apparently the Pens rookie tournament game is streaming live now on the leafs website...however, it just gets stuck loading for me. Anyone have it working?
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