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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Rookie Camp Finalized, Projected Lines, Quick Hits
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jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 12 @ 11:15 AM ET
Did Clarke get a 2nd-rounder for letting Dean Lombardi go to the Kings? Flyershistory seems to think so:

http://www.flyershistory....cgi-bin/anyday.cgi?19-Apr

- Tomahawk


My work thinks that's a gambling site or something, so I can never open it at work.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 12 @ 11:17 AM ET
Just one Drew Doughty away from being a contender!
- Marc D


With the talent/depth the Kings have, could you even get Doughty?

I mean, they COULD get Shea Weber. It would be a massive overpayment, but they could do it. But really, could you even offer a crazy package for Doughty that LA would take?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 12 @ 11:19 AM ET
http://www.broadstreethoc...enseman-neutral-zone-play
- johndewar


This article has been posted many times, and I've read it many times. Lots of flaws in it. It makes me wonder if some fans read an article like this, with an open mind and reach their own conclusions. Lots of flaws and poor conclusions in this article, in my opinion. Even in the stills the author provides in the article, he comes to the wrong conclusion and the wrong opinion on what happened and what should have happened. Other articles use data from an extremely suspect source in Jessica Schmidt as the basis for coming to poor conclusions.

This article states that MacDonald was targeted 47.8% of the time. More then any other defenseman. Well there's normally only two defenseman on the ice at one time. That means that MacDonald's partners as a whole were targeted 52.2% of the time. Worse then MacDonald.
Then they try to compare that to other defenseman on the team, and want to take every rush, dump it all into one pile, and call it all the same. I wonder when a lot of analytics proponents are going to realize that every play is different in Hockey. Different teammates, different opponents, different scenario's.

When dealing with zone entires, and how defenseman defend them, there is only one way to come to a sound conclusion. And that's for an educated and informed and knowedgeable analyst, to look at every play individually, and say did he play it right based on the situation he was faced with, or did he play it wrong. These zone entry stats can't do it. It is impossible.

There's a reason why Ron Hextall, an NHL GM says that he relies on analytics for about 5% of player evaluations.

And one truth with analytics that some can't seem to get, is that these numbers can only show you what happened. They cannot tell you why it happened. That takes analysis, and context.

And lastly, some are going to say that I refuse to acknowledge any weaknesses or flaws in MacDonald's game, and that I won't admit mistakes that the player has made. Well I'll nip that right in the bud because an article was posted the other day showing stills of a rush that MacDonald was on for, when I thought he played in wrong against Boston. He had the support and should've stepped up and sealed of Thornton at the blue line or just inside it. But he backed off and allowed possession deep into the corner.
Marc D
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: best smile, 14 without fake tees
Joined: 03.28.2008

Sep 12 @ 11:25 AM ET
With the talent/depth the Kings have, could you even get Doughty?

I mean, they COULD get Shea Weber. It would be a massive overpayment, but they could do it. But really, could you even offer a crazy package for Doughty that LA would take?

- jmatchett383

No it would be impossible.
Maybe when he hits 35 years old they'll consider a trade.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Sep 12 @ 11:29 AM ET
With the talent/depth the Kings have, could you even get Doughty?

I mean, they COULD get Shea Weber. It would be a massive overpayment, but they could do it. But really, could you even offer a crazy package for Doughty that LA would take?

- jmatchett383


25 year $200 million
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Sep 12 @ 11:41 AM ET
With the talent/depth the Kings have, could you even get Doughty?

I mean, they COULD get Shea Weber. It would be a massive overpayment, but they could do it. But really, could you even offer a crazy package for Doughty that LA would take?

- jmatchett383


To the Flyers: Doughty

To the Kings: The Flyers next 25 1st rounders, Giroux, Morin, Ghost, Laughton, Ed Snider's private jet, a lifetime supply of cheesesteaks and tastycakes, a couple hundred million of Uncle Eddie's cold hard cash.


Nah, probably still doesn't get em Doughty
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 12 @ 11:46 AM ET
25 year $200 million
- Streit2ThePoint


I meant a trade.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 12 @ 11:47 AM ET
To the Flyers: Doughty

To the Kings: The Flyers next 25 1st rounders, Giroux, Morin, Ghost, Laughton, Ed Snider's private jet, a lifetime supply of cheesesteaks and tastycakes, a couple hundred million of Uncle Eddie's cold hard cash.


Nah, probably still doesn't get em Doughty

- BiggE


None of the roster players fill a need LA has, though. Hell, they have Mike Richards as their 4C for (frank)'s sake. LA, basically, has the perfect team, and the only way to ruin it internally is to start to move key pieces for "name" players (sound familiar?).
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Sep 12 @ 11:49 AM ET
Just one Drew Doughty away from being a contender!
- Marc D


That 2008 draft was something. Luke Schenn was drafted 5th overall, looks like he is the 8th best dman taken in the first round.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 12 @ 11:52 AM ET
That 2008 draft was something. Luke Schenn was drafted 5th overall, looks like he is the 8th best dman taken in the first round.
- PLindbergh31


Depending on whether you put him ahead of/behind Bogo and Myers (which I'd say are better, though not by a landslide), then yes.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Sep 12 @ 11:56 AM ET
I agree. I'm just saying we dont have really any better options IMO.
- GOA88


It's likely that they don't. The trouble is MacDonald has shown he isn't a top pair guy and struggles vs top competition. It's possible that a guy like Del Zotto can rebound and play with Coburn.

It just seems like some want to ignore the issues MacDonald had in a big role last season. The Flyers seem ready to ask him to fill the same job he couldn't fill in New York
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Sep 12 @ 11:58 AM ET
It's likely that they don't. The trouble is MacDonald has shown he isn't a top pair guy and struggles vs top competition. It's possible that a guy like Del Zotto can rebound and play with Coburn.

It just seems like some want to ignore the issues MacDonald had in a big role last season. The Flyers seem ready to ask him to fill the same job he couldn't fill in New York

- Jsaquella


Well, like you said...they don't really have any other options right now. Maybe someone surprises at camp.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Sep 12 @ 11:58 AM ET
I meant a trade.
- jmatchett383


In that case it is near impossible. I mean they could offer Giroux, Voracek, a couple prospects and picks just to get Doughty and they could then flip whomever to another team for another good defenseman.

Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Sep 12 @ 11:59 AM ET
It's possible that a guy like Del Zotto can rebound and play with Coburn.
- Jsaquella


At his best under Torts, MDZ could eat a lot of minutes and play in all situations. If he can tap back into some of that, I think the depth on D falls into line much nicer. To me, he is the wildcard for this season.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Sep 12 @ 12:00 PM ET
Agreed.

On the other hand, I doubt HB denizens are the only people in the world that know about Andy MacDonald's shortcomings (I know, SO HARD TO BELIEVE, AMIRITE?) and I'm hoping they can be worked on either with the player himself or through coaching tactics.

He's not a complete disaster, but yeah.....he needs work.

- johndewar


Far from a complete disaster, but he's basically being asked to replace Timonen. I have no illusions how that could go.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Sep 12 @ 12:01 PM ET
At his best under Torts, MDZ could eat a lot of minutes and play in all situations. If he can tap back into some of that, I think the depth on D falls into line much nicer. To me, he is the wildcard for this season.
- Tomahawk


And the dude is only 24 so I'm hoping he's coming into camp strong and willing to prove himself.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Sep 12 @ 12:03 PM ET
At his best under Torts, MDZ could eat a lot of minutes and play in all situations. If he can tap back into some of that, I think the depth on D falls into line much nicer. To me, he is the wildcard for this season.
- Tomahawk


If he can return to that form, he'd be a massive help to the blue line situation. I was interested in rolling the dice on him last season, too. He's shown the talent in the past, a bad stretch and confidence issues can be overcome
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Sep 12 @ 12:04 PM ET
What point range are the defensive pairings?
- jmatchett383


Ha! I don't love the defense without Timonen, but I can honestly say I like Del Zotto and Nick Schultz better than last year's three-headed monster of Gus, Meszaros and Gill.

I think it's like BiggE said: mid-80s defense, 100-point forwards, 95-100 goaltending...playoffs, 94-98 points, I'm thinking.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 12 @ 12:06 PM ET


It just seems like some want to ignore the issues MacDonald had in a big role last season. The Flyers seem ready to ask him to fill the same job he couldn't fill in New York

- Jsaquella



Not sure who you're referring to here, but I can only speak for myself. I have repeatedly stated that MacDonald is not a top pair defenseman, and that he is a puck moving #3 defenseman. And that he was overplayed and overused on the Isles. I have also stated that if the Flyers do the same with MacDonald, unless the team as a whole becomes a much better team defensively, and at 5 on 5 play, that MacDonald might have some of the same issues here, if the Flyers are forced to so so, due to the loss of Timonen.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Sep 12 @ 12:09 PM ET
At his best under Torts, MDZ could eat a lot of minutes and play in all situations. If he can tap back into some of that, I think the depth on D falls into line much nicer. To me, he is the wildcard for this season.
- Tomahawk


Absolutely; if he plays like an solid NHL defenseman with his skillset, able to play 17-19 minutes and simply be league average, the Flyers will be fine.

If he plays like Gus/Meszaros, and loses Chief's trust early AND one of the kids isn't even close, then the season gets sideways early and you almost have to think some kind of deal gets made that we won't like
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 12 @ 12:10 PM ET
At his best under Torts, MDZ could eat a lot of minutes and play in all situations. If he can tap back into some of that, I think the depth on D falls into line much nicer. To me, he is the wildcard for this season.
- Tomahawk



That player is in there somewhere. Other players such as Luke Schenn have to step up also.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Sep 12 @ 12:12 PM ET
Well, like you said...they don't really have any other options right now. Maybe someone surprises at camp.
- jmatchett383


I'd try Streit there before MacDonald, personally. Again not ideal, but the issue is we know how one of the two fared in the role just last season.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Sep 12 @ 12:13 PM ET
That player is in there somewhere. Other players such as Luke Schenn have to step up also.
- MJL


Tremendously.

AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Sep 12 @ 12:16 PM ET
Not sure who you're referring to here, but I can only speak for myself. I have repeatedly stated that MacDonald is not a top pair defenseman, and that he is a puck moving #3 defenseman. And that he was overplayed and overused on the Isles. I have also stated that if the Flyers do the same with MacDonald, unless the team as a whole becomes a much better team defensively, and at 5 on 5 play, that MacDonald might have some of the same issues here, if the Flyers are forced to so so, due to the loss of Timonen.
- MJL


MacDonald was exposed and overmatched on the Isles, but let's be honest about a couple of other things going on there: Their team, as a whole, is not as good as the Flyers. Travis Hamonic is the only other NHL defender on that team who numerous other teams would want, and their goaltending was flat-out horrific.

The Flyers play a sound system, have a goaltender who,has done nothing but play well since arriving in Philadelphia, and Braydon Coburn is easily the best partner MacDonald will have had.

That doesn't mean all of his weaknesses can be hidden, but I honestly don't think they will all show up this season, as well.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Sep 12 @ 12:19 PM ET
...then the season gets sideways early and you almost have to think some kind of deal gets made that we won't like
- AllInForFlyers


I'm not so worried about that anymore: under new management
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