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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: 2014-15 What Ifs
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EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Sep 10 @ 6:42 PM ET
NO team gets all of the bounces, all of the calls - not in a series, not in a game.

The team that PLAYS better (not IS better) wins almost every series, and the team that is playing better SEEMS to get all of the bounces - because they're in better position to take advantage of them.

Chicago beat St. Louis 4 straight - that's not bounces.

They played better (if only marginally) than Minny, and were in position to take advantage of a bad bounce off the glass in game 6 OT.

- StLBravesFan


Those first two games against St. Louis both went to OT. They could have gone either way - especially the first one that went to 3OT.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Sep 10 @ 6:45 PM ET
It's not a question is whether or not the "minor pro-punchers" will be enough...

It's a question of what fits under the cap, who's here now, and if there is any openings in the forward group or enough room to add a 14th forward once a deal is made to get under the cap.

As it stands, there are 13 forwards that are on with contracts that have to pass through waivers to be sent down. I can't see one of them that the team would sent to Rockford anyways. Unless one of those guys is traded, there isn't a spot there.

That leaves a 14th forward slot. If Bowman can't make enough cap room in a trade, it's possible that the Hawks start with a roster of 22. It may stay that way for long stretches. Which means they are carrying the 13 forwards they have now.



Maybe Rundblad works out? Maybe he doesn't? The point is the guy is definitely on the bubble now and what he does in training camp may ultimately decide what the organization does with him.

The point of young defenseman needing time to develop has been discussed to death. Yes, they need time to develop. However, you're dealing with a player who has exhausted his entry level time and is on a one way contract. So Rundblad is at a point where he has to show that he can be counted on (for the most part) right now, or he sits in the press box. He can not be sent to Rockford in fear of a waiver claim to work on his game. He's stuck in a place where there is not the time or space to develop a player on the big club. Especially when this team is a contender.

If this team was the Buffalo Sabers, that would be a different story. The only thing they're playing for this season is to be entertaining enough to draw attendance, but bad enough to land one of the first two picks in the draft. It's the perfect place for an over-aged development project to learn and make mistakes.



Yes, he's capable of running a PP. No, he did not play LW on the PP.



I'd take a pick in return for Rundblad, if it comes down to that and there is a team willing to deal for him. It beats waiving him and letting him get claimed for nothing.

- EKolb13


Anton Stralman played for a couple of teams before hitting his stride and finding a fit with the Rangers. And then somebody in Tampa decided he was worth $5M per season at the age of 27 or 28.

Not saying Runblad will go down that road, but somebody thinks he's worth a look and the draft pick they gave up to get him. Just saying ....
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Sep 10 @ 6:49 PM ET
NO team gets all of the bounces, all of the calls - not in a series, not in a game.

The team that PLAYS better (not IS better) wins almost every series, and the team that is playing better SEEMS to get all of the bounces - because they're in better position to take advantage of them.

Chicago beat St. Louis 4 straight - that's not bounces.

They played better (if only marginally) than Minny, and were in position to take advantage of a bad bounce off the glass in game 6 OT.

- StLBravesFan

It could be argued that with a bounce or two early in that series, the Hawks sweep.

Edit: Eli beat me to it...what he said.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Sep 10 @ 6:51 PM ET
What if Dineen is able to run his own PP scheme and Q stays out of it? Perhaps that improves the whole thing?
- EKolb13


I've mentioned that and of course totally agree. I also agree with JJ that they could finish anywhere from 1st to 8th. Having said that though, if Dineen does a good job with the PP the hawks should finish in the thick of it. I will also add that it wouldn't surprise me if at some point in the future Dineen is the next coach. I'm not convinced Q and Stan Bowman are on the same page.

StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 10 @ 6:51 PM ET
Those first two games against St. Louis both went to OT. They could have gone either way - especially the first one that went to 3OT.
- EKolb13


The Boston series 2 seasons ago:

Game 1, 3rd OT - puck bounces off of Bolland into Shaw's leg and off him into the net. Lucky? Yeah, but two guys in position to make the most of it.

Game 6, 59 seconds left - shot goes off the post right to Bolland, rebounds it into the net. Lucky? Yeah, but Bolland, when he saw the shot come, moved into position to be ready for anything.

EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Sep 10 @ 6:52 PM ET
Anton Stralman played for a couple of teams before hitting his stride and finding a fit with the Rangers. And then somebody in Tampa decided he was worth $5M per season at the age of 27 or 28.

Not saying Runblad will go down that road, but somebody thinks he's worth a look and the draft pick they gave up to get him. Just saying ....

- RickJ


This is a totally valid point. And it could possibly work out that way. Or he could be one of the first guys on the trading block once the season opens because someone else won a job over him in camp?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 10 @ 6:54 PM ET
It could be argued that with a bounce or two early in that series, the Hawks sweep.

Edit: Eli beat me to it...what he said.

- Ogilthorpe2


Yes - but St. Louis put themselves in position to score the late goals that sent the games into OT - and Chicago didn't put themselves in position to put the Blues away.

EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Sep 10 @ 6:59 PM ET
Yes - but St. Louis put themselves in position to score the late goals that sent the games into OT - and Chicago didn't put themselves in position to put the Blues away.
- StLBravesFan


This is also a valid point. However, the first game went into 3OT. With a game that goes that long, players are tired, the ice is crap, and goalies have been out there for a 100 minutes. That game could have gone either way. I'll agree that it wasn't so much the case with game #2.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 10 @ 7:15 PM ET
This is also a valid point. However, the first game went into 3OT. With a game that goes that long, players are tired, the ice is crap, and goalies have been out there for a 100 minutes. That game could have gone either way. I'll agree that it wasn't so much the case with game #2.
- EKolb13


Hockey is a random sport - more so than other sports.

With all of the OT games (25%) and one-goal games, any team is usually a deflection away from losing.

And - yes - a lucky bounce here or there wins either of the first two against the Blues.

And I'm sure Blues fans could say the same thing about games 3 (one-goal game), 4 (OT), 5 (OT) and even game 6 (tied after 2).

But certainly, over any kind of multi-game stretch, bounces will even out, and the team playing better will wind up on top.

SnapitUpstairs
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: CHICAGO, IL
Joined: 02.03.2012

Sep 10 @ 7:16 PM ET
I've mentioned that and of course totally agree. I also agree with JJ that they could finish anywhere from 1st to 8th. Having said that though, if Dineen does a good job with the PP the hawks should finish in the thick of it. I will also add that it wouldn't surprise me if at some point in the future Dineen is the next coach. I'm not convinced Q and Stan Bowman are on the same page.
- 6628


>Agree Dineen is an important add this season
>Also agree that Q and SBow sometimes appear not be on the same page
>We'll know if it is Dineen's PP right away -- if there are some changes to the personnel and their roles on the Hawks first 5 on 3 of the year
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Sep 10 @ 7:16 PM ET
Your love for Leddy is as irrational and encompassing as my hate for Sharp.

My only expectation for Runblad is this... I expect Runblad to be given a legit chance to make the team. From there, who knows.

- Ogilthorpe2


Ha, good one Ogie.

However, nowhere did I profess my unbounded love for Leddy. In fact, go back and you will see that as I make mention, I note "if he's still around." And no, I did not compare him to Rundblad either -- skills-wise Nick is heads/shoulders above. I think Nick could outskate David with one skate, so I don't think there s/b any comparison.

Just that those annointing him as the next guy to play that 5/6 role as being really good. I think they will be sorely disappointed.

I did, however, love your mention of your hate of Sharp. Not until this past year (post Olympics and then playoffs, combined with the personal dirtbag news I heard) did I really want to see him gone.

Although, he did try his best to escape me and my daughters several years ago at the Edge but they were too quick and Nick Leddy-like as their speed cornered him like a cornered dog. I have the pic proof too!
savvyone-1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I'm singing the Blues!, IL
Joined: 03.04.2011

Sep 10 @ 7:20 PM ET
For advanced stats aficionados only. Hammer tops the list.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...o-look-at-nhl-defencemen/

- MartiniMan


Thanks for the link and in looking at the list -- interesting to note that Nick Leddy's partner is in the top 10 and Nick himself is #42 out of over 180 NHL D men. Sort of blows the cover for those continuing to make the claim that Nick sucks. Oh, I forgot, it's the quality of competition -- hmmm, wonder why Michal Rozsival is up there then?
moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Sep 10 @ 7:26 PM ET
All frickin day I've had tribe called quest stuck in my head because of this thread...

"What is a party if it doesn't really rock?
What is a poet? All balls, no c*ck
What is a war if it doesn't have a general?
What's channel nine if it doesn't have Arsenio?"


And the what's go on and on all song...

Thanks for the flashbacks from at least 20 years ago
Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Sep 10 @ 7:45 PM ET
For advanced stats aficionados only. Hammer tops the list.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...o-look-at-nhl-defencemen/

- MartiniMan


The comments section is pure gold. Thanks for the share.
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Sep 10 @ 7:59 PM ET
JJ i enjoyed the write-up overall, but i dont agree that we have such a large drop off between our maximum potential and what would be our worst case scenario type of season(barring the serious injuries to multiple stars, but that you could apply to any team obviously). Our team has a MUCH greater chance of being that 1 seed than they do of slipping to the 8th seed. Towards the end there you kinda made it sound like "who knows, we might be good, we might be just average, its a toss up". We're gonna be pretty damn good.
TrueGrit
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 07.19.2011

Sep 10 @ 7:59 PM ET
NO team gets all of the bounces, all of the calls - not in a series, not in a game.

The team that PLAYS better (not IS better) wins almost every series, and the team that is playing better SEEMS to get all of the bounces - because they're in better position to take advantage of them.

Chicago beat St. Louis 4 straight - that's not bounces.

They played better (if only marginally) than Minny, and were in position to take advantage of a bad bounce off the glass in game 6 OT.

- StLBravesFan


Well said and I do not disagree. The Hawks were outshot most of first 2 rounds. That never used to happen. In particular, the Blues came down on a rush in OT, goofy bounce and puck his Toews at center ice for break away and win.

I won't split hairs on that stuff anymore, my caution going into this season is how many want to seem to brush off the inconsistent play of Jan to April. I know there are a number of convenient excuses, but I will sum up my thoughts on the whole thing, and that is I hope that they are not counting on the same script to get them to the promised land as last spring.
TrueGrit
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 07.19.2011

Sep 10 @ 8:08 PM ET
It could be argued that with a bounce or two early in that series, the Hawks sweep.

Edit: Eli beat me to it...what he said.

- Ogilthorpe2


Could also be argued a bounce or 2 in game 4 and 5 and it is the Blues in 5....the margin here is razor thin. Anyone watching that series saw the Blues carry the play noticeably more than the Hawks. Thank you Corey Crawford.
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Sep 10 @ 8:56 PM ET
Could also be argued a bounce or 2 in game 4 and 5 and it is the Blues in 5....the margin here is razor thin. Anyone watching that series saw the Blues carry the play noticeably more than the Hawks. Thank you Corey Crawford.
- TrueGrit


Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Sep 10 @ 9:07 PM ET
Could also be argued a bounce or 2 in game 4 and 5 and it is the Blues in 5....the margin here is razor thin. Anyone watching that series saw the Blues carry the play noticeably more than the Hawks. Thank you Corey Crawford.
- TrueGrit

StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 10 @ 9:25 PM ET
JJ i enjoyed the write-up overall, but i dont agree that we have such a large drop off between our maximum potential and what would be our worst case scenario type of season(barring the serious injuries to multiple stars, but that you could apply to any team obviously). Our team has a MUCH greater chance of being that 1 seed than they do of slipping to the 8th seed. Towards the end there you kinda made it sound like "who knows, we might be good, we might be just average, its a toss up". We're gonna be pretty damn good.
- SimpleJack


Colorado
St. Louis
Dallas
Annie
LAK
SJ
Minnie
Phoenix

I could certainly envision a scenario or two where 7 of those finish ahead of the Blackhawks, and multiple star injuries is only one.

A lot of "ifs" on this team - if all/most pan out, a very good team; if too many don't (Richards, Bickell, Saad at 2LW, no 4th C steps up, Morin, replacement for whoever gets moved, Crawford doesn't bounce back, Sharp doesn't bounce back) - bottom tournament seed.

I don't expect the latter, but they're counting on several skaters who haven't performed in their expected roles yet, or are older and may not have a lot left.
molly2522
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: long beach, IN
Joined: 07.13.2011

Sep 10 @ 10:31 PM ET
what if two of the rockford forwards and two of the defenseman spend the first four months there and progress to the point they force stan to trade a few more veterans before the trade deadline to make room for them
would like to see leddy paired with a physical defenseman like john's and kruger with two speed physical forwards on the fourth line like mcneil and danault
TyCamScore
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.09.2010

Sep 10 @ 10:42 PM ET
Barring an epic failure on his part Rundblad will be on the team opening night. Stan wouldn't give up a coveted 2nd round pick for Rundblad only to lose him on waivers.
- DarthKane


You got it DK.

I'm not the guy's cheerleader by any means, but I composed an article (with video) that shows his skills when he was in Sweden.

http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/ty_cam/54750/

That was Sweden and this is now, but I feel like he's never really been giving a shot. He's probably a little stunted in his growth after being on 4 teams already at such a young age. Young being the operative word. He still has time to turn it around.

Listen, I'm not saying he will be the answer but like DK said, Stan gave up a 2nd round pick for him. That was not done without reason. Someone in the Blackhawks brass sees something in this cat.

DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Sep 10 @ 11:19 PM ET
@ESPNChiHawks: Working on some prospect stuff and realized Teuvo Teravainen turns 20 tomorrow.
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Sep 11 @ 1:07 AM ET
Colorado
St. Louis
Dallas
Annie
LAK
SJ
Minnie
Phoenix

I could certainly envision a scenario or two where 7 of those finish ahead of the Blackhawks, and multiple star injuries is only one.

A lot of "ifs" on this team - if all/most pan out, a very good team; if too many don't (Richards, Bickell, Saad at 2LW, no 4th C steps up, Morin, replacement for whoever gets moved, Crawford doesn't bounce back, Sharp doesn't bounce back) - bottom tournament seed.

I don't expect the latter, but they're counting on several skaters who haven't performed in their expected roles yet, or are older and may not have a lot left.

- StLBravesFan


Look at it like this: From where we stand right now, based off the rosters on paper and level of play last year, the Kings are the only team that looks like they have as much(or possibly even more) potential at a Cup run this upcoming season than we do. I think even most non-Hawks fans would agree to that. Every contender you listed, just like us, has a hypothetical best case scenario and hypothetical worst case scenario. Every contender has players adjusting to new roles, younger players with unknown potential, and older players that might lose a step. I think its only logical to predict something in between for all teams, a medium ground where there's a mix of improvements and regressions.

I really dont see any scenario where, without major injury, we somehow underachieve and fail in multiple areas AND 7 other contenders all improve without any negatives and pass us by in the regular season standings. I mean its technically possible, but its just highly unlikely, which was my point. Even with the depth in our division and the West in general, with this roster we should be a top 4 seed.

Ah, but then there comes the even more important point of asking whether the regular season play and playoff seed even matter? We've recently seen an 8th seed win it all, so in the grand scheme of things we both know when the real time is to turn on the "best case scenario" type of play.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Sep 11 @ 2:38 AM ET
what if two of the rockford forwards and two of the defenseman spend the first four months there and progress to the point they force stan to trade a few more veterans before the trade deadline to make room for them
would like to see leddy paired with a physical defenseman like john's and kruger with two speed physical forwards on the fourth line like mcneil and danault

- molly2522


Ideally Leddy and Johns sounds like a possible combination. But do they play opposite sides? And two young dmen together will never work well. Or be desired by Q in his schematic.

Maybe the only way I envision two young Chicago dmen on a pair is if Dahlbeck works out well. The rationale is due to the conservative or safe/less error prone style Dahlbeck plays.

Then I am thinking more along the possible Rundblad - Dahlbeck. It would likely be deep into the regular season or an injury or penalty situation in a game until two young guys play as a pair.

Well maybe in some blow out game. But as for one young dman in Leddy...... I will not put away the Leddy or Oduya " he gone" until after the trade deadline.

As for the other big salary whom has been discussed to move on this board. ...Sharp is an integral part of the offense. I do not see him moved until after the season is over.

I really wish, however, there was a Rockford forward able to step in so Sharp could be dealt. But the reason is only actually because I want to keep both Oduya and Leddy longer. I prefer the "D" remain as strong/good as possible even if at the expense of Sharp's departure. Of course I do not see this happening. But I do like the strongest set on defense for playoffs over keeping Sharp.

In fact I would suggest the better way to beat toughest Western Conference playoff foes is with Crawford stoning them and the defense solid (includes Oduya and Leddy). I could see Dahlbeck moving ahead of Rundblad, too, unless Rundblad is inserted instead for his PP ability.

Leddy may or may not make as much progress in becoming a better dman by playing on this Chicago team with Oduya also aboard. But with both of them still wearing the Indian Head sweater it does mean that Johns and other prospects remain in Rockford for an entire season.

While those prospects improve in the AHL, how about the better use of Leddy carrying the biscuit into the attack zone after blowing by everyone?

It will be interesting with Leddy here how Dineen can or cannot coach smarter use of that skating.

I recall neither Campbell or Leddy rarely used their speed to advantage when they race in to the attack zone. Is it all between Leddy's ears or can Dineen have an impact here?
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