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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Rinaldo Contract Extension, Prospect Updates, Quick Hits
Author Message
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 5:55 PM ET
I worry that Akeson is just another Tim Tookey/Peter White type player. A guy who can score at the AHL level (and Akeson doesn't even score at the level of those 2) but in the NHL is a marginal guy at best. Not quite big enough, not quite fast enough, not quite.........anything enough.

I hope not.

- MBFlyerfan


I have concerns about that as well. But really if that is the case, the Flyers can't really get hurt if that happens, as things sit now. Not much of an investment was made in the player, as an undrafted free agent. But where the potential is right now, to get hurt, is if he doesn't make the team, is put through waivers, is claimed and goes onto success with another team. The Flyers are in a critical step right now in deciding what Akeson is, and if he can help them. There is the potential for Akeson to be one of those late bloomers, that doesn't have the attributes that the scouts love, but can just play. Have to let him play to find out. It's a rarity but some players for some reason, are better in the NHL then they are in the AHL.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 5:58 PM ET
Roussel is 24, too. Did you even read Bill's blog?

And Laperriere had a 23 and a 21 point season on his resume by the time he was 24. There's really no comparison between him and Rinaldo, who had the 8th worst On Ice +/- per 60 minutes in the league last year.

http://www.behindthenet.c...+21+22+23+24+25+26+27+28#

- Feanor



Not everything comes down to stats, but it seems for some, stats is all there is. And that On Ice +/- per 60 minutes is a team stat, not an individual stat.

The poster, to paraphrase, makes a good point, which is he is still young and still evolving as a player. He may not have had the offensive output at a junior level that Lapperiere had, or even in his early NHL days. But that doesn't mean that Rinaldo can't improve, and become a better player. And comparing him to Roussel is not a fair comparison. It's comparing a 3rd line player to a 4th line player.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 6:00 PM ET
I don't have huge problem with it other than it's a seeming commitment of a roster spot for the next three seasons. While his play often frustrates me it will be compounded now by knowing that the team feels like they can win with him on the roster in the next three years. I put it right there with the Lecavalier signing. That didn't feel like a forward move for the club at the time of the signing let alone the length and neither does this. I, at the very least, want to feel like they're moving toward contention no matter how slowly.
- mayorofangrytown


It's not necessarily a commitment of a roster spot for the next 3 seasons, but is potentially a commitment of a contract slot for the next 3 years.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Sep 3 @ 6:11 PM ET
I want to break down the effect of Rinaldo's penalty differential mathematically, cause I think it's a greatly overvalued trait for grinders and enforcers. Rinaldo's best penalty differential season was 12-13, where he took 2.3 penalties per 60 mins, and drew 3.2 penalties per 60. The Flyers PP% that season was 21.6%, and their PK% was 85.9%. That means he indirectly caused .691G/60 and .324 GA/60, giving him a differential of .367G/60. He played 268 minutes that season. This means that he indirectly contributed 1.64 goals in 32 games that season. If he had continued that pace over 82 games (which would be incredibly unlikely judging from the top penalty differential of players with more than 60 games played last season), he would have indirectly contributed 4.2 goals in the entire season. That might be good for a player who takes more minutes, contributes more offensive, or who even just brings a better two-way game. But for a small minutes player with a below average defensive game and virtually no offensive game, that goal or two shouldn't be good enough to justify playing him over a more complete player.

A good penalty differential definitely isn't a bad thing. Using the same math, Malkin indirectly contributed almost 6 goals to the Penguins last season (it would've been almost 8 by keeping the same pace over 82 games). That's a nice additional contribution from a player who was also tasked with 20 minutes a night against opposing team's top competition. I think the ability to draw a good amount more penalties than you take is a useful trait to help sweeten the package of skills that a player brings. I don't think it should ever be one of the primary traits of a player and I don't think it's a legitimate reason to keep a below average 4th line player in the lineup over others.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Sep 3 @ 6:18 PM ET
Thanks for posting that! A lot of smaller forwards. Didn't realize Alderson is 6'4''- would be great if he surprised in camp (Bill put him as a potential sleeper).
- coffee junkie


I can't see him making the team now.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Sep 3 @ 6:19 PM ET
Flyers rookie camp roster.

http://flyers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=729516

- Feanor


All the big names will be there. I cant wait to attend.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Sep 3 @ 6:23 PM ET
I have concerns about that as well. But really if that is the case, the Flyers can't really get hurt if that happens, as things sit now. Not much of an investment was made in the player, as an undrafted free agent. But where the potential is right now, to get hurt, is if he doesn't make the team, is put through waivers, is claimed and goes onto success with another team. The Flyers are in a critical step right now in deciding what Akeson is, and if he can help them. There is the potential for Akeson to be one of those late bloomers, that doesn't have the attributes that the scouts love, but can just play. Have to let him play to find out. It's a rarity but some players for some reason, are better in the NHL then they are in the AHL.
- MJL



I hope so. And I can see Akeson being that player. Maybe his physical skills cant keep up with how fast he can think the game, and in the AHL, maybe a player like that thinks the game faster than his teammates. But get him in the NHL, where everyone thinks faster, all of the sudden players are keeping up with his thought process and vica versa. Make sense?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 6:24 PM ET
I want to break down the effect of Rinaldo's penalty differential mathematically, cause I think it's a greatly overvalued trait for grinders and enforcers. Rinaldo's best penalty differential season was 12-13, where he took 2.3 penalties per 60 mins, and drew 3.2 penalties per 60. The Flyers PP% that season was 21.6%, and their PK% was 85.9%. That means he indirectly caused .691G/60 and .324 GA/60, giving him a differential of .367G/60. He played 268 minutes that season. This means that he indirectly contributed 1.64 goals in 32 games that season. If he had continued that pace over 82 games (which would be incredibly unlikely judging from the top penalty differential of players with more than 60 games played last season), he would have indirectly contributed 4.2 goals in the entire season. That might be good for a player who takes more minutes, contributes more offensive, or who even just brings a better two-way game. But for a small minutes player with a below average defensive game and virtually no offensive game, that goal or two shouldn't be good enough to justify playing him over a more complete player.

A good penalty differential definitely isn't a bad thing. Using the same math, Malkin indirectly contributed almost 6 goals to the Penguins last season (it would've been almost 8 by keeping the same pace over 82 games). That's a nice additional contribution from a player who was also tasked with 20 minutes a night against opposing team's top competition. I think the ability to draw a good amount more penalties than you take is a useful trait to help sweeten the package of skills that a player brings. I don't think it should ever be one of the primary traits of a player and I don't think it's a legitimate reason to keep a below average 4th line player in the lineup over others.

- JAKEw1234


Really that's a nice way of trying to break things down, but unfortunately, it's just not a great way of looking at it. For all we know, the Flyers PP% during PP's that Rinaldo drew, could be a much higher or lower percentage. Same with penalties he took, and the PK percentage.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 6:25 PM ET
I hope so. And I can see Akeson being that player. Maybe his physical skills cant keep up with how fast he can think the game, and in the AHL, maybe a player like that thinks the game faster than his teammates. But get him in the NHL, where everyone thinks faster, all of the sudden players are keeping up with his thought process and vica versa. Make sense?
- MBFlyerfan


Sure does, like I said, the biggest thing to worry about is losing a potentially good player, before you know he's a good player. But that's the position a team is in with a potential late bloomer who is no longer waiver exempt.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Sep 3 @ 6:26 PM ET
Another wing dinger of a 2 year deal.


- PLindbergh31

Just checked in and the first I see is this. I hated this guy and this deal. For all of Grossmann's shortcomings, Grossmann was still a godsend!
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Sep 3 @ 6:30 PM ET
Sure does, like I said, the biggest thing to worry about is losing a potentially good player, before you know he's a good player. But that's the position a team is in with a potential late bloomer who is no longer waiver exempt.
- MJL

Jason Akeson talk!

I'm not sure if Akeson is a player we necessarily need right now but if he proves his worth, you create a role for him and make things work. If he's not good enough to be here, he won't be.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Sep 3 @ 6:32 PM ET
Not everything comes down to stats, but it seems for some, stats is all there is. And that On Ice +/- per 60 minutes is a team stat, not an individual stat.

The poster, to paraphrase, makes a good point, which is he is still young and still evolving as a player. He may not have had the offensive output at a junior level that Lapperiere had, or even in his early NHL days. But that doesn't mean that Rinaldo can't improve, and become a better player. And comparing him to Roussel is not a fair comparison. It's comparing a 3rd line player to a 4th line player.

- MJL


Rinaldo's individual stats reflect exactly what you would expect from watching him. He doesn't contribute offensively and is often out of position defensively. In the end every hockey game does come down to stats - goals scored and goals conceded.

You better let Bill know that Roussel is an unfair comparison since he was named in today's blog.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 6:38 PM ET
Rinaldo's individual stats reflect exactly what you would expect from watching him. He doesn't contribute offensively and is often out of position defensively. In the end every hockey game does come down to stats - goals scored and goals conceded.

You better let Bill know that Roussel is an unfair comparison since he was named in today's blog.

- Feanor


That's incorrect, the game never comes down to statistics, because it's about what happens on the ice, and how those goal scored and goals conceded happen. You couldn't have that more wrong. The stats aren't what the game came down to, it was the play on the ice that the game came down to. The stats just tell you what the score was! Statistics just try and measure what happened on the ice, and they have zero to do with deciding the outcome.

The stats you named are not individual stats, but team stats mislabeled and misunderstood as individual stats. And certainly, Rinaldo, as a player who is on the ice when the data is compiled for those stats , certainly has some culpability there. But it is also about who his teammates were, and what they did also. For some reason, some can't grasp that.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 6:40 PM ET
Jason Akeson talk!

I'm not sure if Akeson is a player we necessarily need right now but if he proves his worth, you create a role for him and make things work. If he's not good enough to be here, he won't be.

- SuperSchennBros



You don't think the Flyers have a need or an opening for an offensive winger on the team, when looking at the potential lineup? Not to compare them as players, but I guess Bobby Ryan isn't a need either then.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Sep 3 @ 6:55 PM ET
You don't think the Flyers have a need or an opening for an offensive winger on the team, when looking at the potential lineup? Not to compare them as players, but I guess Bobby Ryan isn't a need either then.
- MJL

Is Jason Akeson a first line winger who's likely to play up to the same level and speed as Giroux? I'm still a little upset Raffl saw more time on the first line over Simmonds, Schenn and Read.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 6:58 PM ET
Is Jason Akeson a first line winger who's likely to play up to the same level and speed as Giroux? I'm still a little upset Raffl saw more time on the first line over Simmonds, Schenn and Read.
- SuperSchennBros


No he's likely not, but there is a carryover effect of adding a player like Akeson if he can make the team as winger and add some scoring punch, other players such as Read, Schenn or Simmonds can move up in the lineup. Look at the roster.
Steelmanpa
Joined: 08.31.2008

Sep 3 @ 7:03 PM ET
I have a huge problem with the signing IF it means that I have to watch Rinaldo be a complete chucklehead for 3 years. I see nothing to indicate that this won't be what I see.
- Doc_Sarcasm


Unless hes going to be expansion bait ( or as I said in another post) the reason Vinny LeCavalier gives up playing here on the 4th line and willing accepts a trade to somewhere else or retires rather than have Zach on his line

Imagine being a 4th line guy struggling for ice time trying to move up in the organization and Rinaldo either gets a penalty early in your shift or keeps coughing the puck up or having passes deflect off his stick or he passes into a parallel dimension/alternate reality when its an easy pass to you. His linemates would kill him for destroying their shifts and their chances

ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 7:03 PM ET
I don't have huge problem with it other than it's a seeming commitment of a roster spot for the next three seasons. While his play often frustrates me it will be compounded now by knowing that the team feels like they can win with him on the roster in the next three years. I put it right there with the Lecavalier signing. That didn't feel like a forward move for the club at the time of the signing let alone the length and neither does this. I, at the very least, want to feel like they're moving toward contention no matter how slowly.
- mayorofangrytown


3 years too long
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Sep 3 @ 7:07 PM ET
No he's likely not, but there is a carryover effect of adding a player like Akeson if he can make the team as winger and add some scoring punch, other players such as Read, Schenn or Simmonds can move up in the lineup. Look at the roster.
- MJL

I've never suggested we cannot find a solid winger for Giroux to play with from within the organization but Giroux is 26 now and in my mind he's a top five offensive threat at the center position in the league. It would be nice if he had a top ten winger to play with. After years of watching Lindros and LeClair play together or Forsberg and Gagne together, I just can't shake this mind set. Getzlaf has his Perry. Spezza and Alfredsson were never really complete until Heatley was added to that mix. I don't think there is anything wrong with going big and getting Giroux that impact winger.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 3 @ 7:11 PM ET
I've never suggested we cannot find a solid winger for Giroux to play with from within the organization but Giroux is 26 now and in my mind he's a top five offensive threat at the center position in the league. It would be nice if he had a top ten winger to play with. After years of watching Lindros and LeClair play together or Forsberg and Gagne together, I just can't shake this mind set. Getzlaf has his Perry. Spezza and Alfredsson were never really complete until Heatley was added to that mix. I don't think there is anything wrong with going big and getting Giroux that impact winger.
- SuperSchennBros


No there isn't, but in the mean time, there is room for a player like Akeson in the lineup if he proves to be a full time NHL player, that's the point. And if he's successful, then they can use future cap assets to add where they really need to add to bolster the defense.
Pelle31Forever
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.20.2014

Sep 3 @ 7:14 PM ET
I wonder what development they expect to see in Rinaldo. I get that he is only 24, but he is what he is and I don't see him getting any better. Obviously it isn't the terror alert red, I personally have had about enough him right after he Polamalu'd that dude from Buffalo that gave him the 1 game suspension.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Sep 3 @ 7:31 PM ET
I'd like to see Rosehill given more icetime and dressed on a regular basis. He can actually play some offense and gets a ridiculous amount of space from the oppositions Dmen.
- acd513


I'd like to see him extended for another 3 years before other teams get their greasy paws on him
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Sep 3 @ 7:31 PM ET
I don't have huge problem with it other than it's a seeming commitment of a roster spot for the next three seasons. While his play often frustrates me it will be compounded now by knowing that the team feels like they can win with him on the roster in the next three years. I put it right there with the Lecavalier signing. That didn't feel like a forward move for the club at the time of the signing let alone the length and neither does this. I, at the very least, want to feel like they're moving toward contention no matter how slowly.
- mayorofangrytown


I don't have a huge problem with the signing in and of itself, but it's the sort of signing that kind of makes me wonder what the thought process is. It's like the Shelley deal in a way. They see Rinaldo filling a need that a lot of people don't think exists.

The Flyers, or members of their front office obviously see something in Rinaldo that leads them to believe he can improve. I've watched him for 3 NHL seasons and haven't seen that promise myself. I see a guy who runs around on D, looking to hit. I see a guy with limited offensive skills. I see a hot head who is easy to take off his game. In those areas, he's the same guy he was as a rookie.

Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Sep 3 @ 7:33 PM ET
That's incorrect, the game never comes down to statistics, because it's about what happens on the ice, and how those goal scored and goals conceded happen. You couldn't have that more wrong. The stats aren't what the game came down to, it was the play on the ice that the game came down to. The stats just tell you what the score was! Statistics just try and measure what happened on the ice, and they have zero to do with deciding the outcome.

The stats you named are not individual stats, but team stats mislabeled and misunderstood as individual stats. And certainly, Rinaldo, as a player who is on the ice when the data is compiled for those stats , certainly has some culpability there. But it is also about who his teammates were, and what they did also. For some reason, some can't grasp that.

- MJL


Goals scored and conceded is a statistic. Goals decide the outcome of the game.

His teammates outside of Hall all did a better job at scoring and preventing goals than Rinaldo did.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Sep 3 @ 7:36 PM ET
Really that's a nice way of trying to break things down, but unfortunately, it's just not a great way of looking at it. For all we know, the Flyers PP% during PP's that Rinaldo drew, could be a much higher or lower percentage. Same with penalties he took, and the PK percentage.
- MJL

Yes there's probably some difference in stats that way, but I don't think it will alter enough over that large of a sample size to change the idea, so I still think the point stands. His penalties and penalties drawn make an insignificant difference over the year.
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