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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: (Relatively) Simple math. 2014-15 Sabres team goal projections
Author Message
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Aug 27 @ 2:28 PM ET
That's just wrong on so many levels.
- jaumiller


Only wrong I see is its toned down with ranch and not blue cheese
yen6d1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: maxim Afinogenov, NY
Joined: 02.21.2011

Aug 27 @ 2:32 PM ET
what if we ended up in 1 and 2? that could be epic.. just throw out the 2nd for a bidding war so we can space out our ELC..
- IndianaSabresFan



Epic and western, NY dont work. hahahah this is buffalo we dont get nice things!
jaumiller
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Ask not what Matt Ellis can do for you, ask what can you do for Matt Ellis. , NY
Joined: 12.06.2012

Aug 27 @ 2:37 PM ET
Only wrong I see is its toned down with ranch and not blue cheese
- Stripes77

It's like they took all the crumbs from a bag of Doritos and put them on a doughnut. They could of done better, needs some chicken on there.
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 27 @ 2:50 PM ET
It's like they took all the crumbs from a bag of Doritos and put them on a doughnut. They could of done better, needs some chicken on there.
- jaumiller


yeah, they could've done better...like filling the middle with vanilla custard and topping it with chocolate icing
grand-magus
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "...i'd say you were high on mushrooms", GMTM, NY
Joined: 06.06.2014

Aug 27 @ 2:51 PM ET
Well written, Michael, and not as boring, self-indulgent or self-serving as these analytics blogs that are soiling the intertwebs as of late.

"Hey, maybe if I keep writing analytics blogs on things such as how many goals so and so scored while skating a) over 25 mhp b) under 25 mhp c) exactly 25 mhp, or how many times so and so won a faceoff when the puck was dropped with the league logo a) face up b) face down c) on it's side, some NHL team will notice me - HEY! HERE I AM! - and give me a job in the analytics department ".

I mean, really? There's some d!ckhead re-watching every single game from last season to analyze zone breakouts or some crap. GET A JOB!

Anyway, rant over.

Now, Michael, we need a blog on individual goal projections for this team. Fun. Simple. Generates conversation.

Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 27 @ 3:01 PM ET
Well written, Michael, and not as boring, self-indulgent or self-serving as these analytics blogs that are soiling the intertwebs as of late.

"Hey, maybe if I keep writing analytics blogs on things such as how many goals so and so scored while skating a) over 25 mhp b) under 25 mhp c) exactly 25 mhp, or how many times so and so won a faceoff when the puck was dropped with the league logo a) face up b) face down c) on it's side, some NHL team will notice me - HEY! HERE I AM! - and give me a job in the analytics department ".

I mean, really? There's some d!ckhead re-watching every single game from last season to analyze zone breakouts or some crap. GET A JOB!

Anyway, rant over.

Now, Michael, we need a blog on individual goal projections for this team. Fun. Simple. Generates conversation.

- grand-magus


thx...appreciate the rant as well...

as for the individuals...it's done as I needed it to come up with the team #'s...will post soon
grand-magus
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "...i'd say you were high on mushrooms", GMTM, NY
Joined: 06.06.2014

Aug 27 @ 3:04 PM ET
thx...appreciate the rant as well...

as for the individuals...it's done as I needed it to come up with the team #'s...will post soon

- Michael Pachla



Solid!
burner087
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Orlando, FL
Joined: 01.18.2008

Aug 27 @ 3:05 PM ET
I did complete the move thanks!! My wife and daughter made it down here last Friday so the Stripes family (and my sanity) and whole again.
- Stripes77


They regretting coming here now? After all this heat and humidity?
IndianaSabresFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Matt FRICKIN ELLIS, IN
Joined: 01.17.2007

Aug 27 @ 3:13 PM ET
Epic and western, NY dont work. hahahah this is buffalo we dont get nice things!
- yen6d1

i dont know about that... the Bills were part of a few Epic superbowls.. just epic on the wrong end..
Buffalo-Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I lost a bet, NY
Joined: 07.05.2007

Aug 27 @ 3:16 PM ET
i dont know about that... the Bills were part of a few Epic superbowls.. just epic on the wrong end..
- IndianaSabresFan



Epic will make a return to WNY. Just going to take some time.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Aug 27 @ 3:22 PM ET
Epic will make a return to WNY. Just going to take some time.
- Buffalo-Sabres


Yeah.. Winter is coming . EPIC snowstorm totals ahead .
Buffalo-Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I lost a bet, NY
Joined: 07.05.2007

Aug 27 @ 3:27 PM ET
Yeah.. Winter is coming . EPIC snowstorm totals ahead .
- cabin



Time to lace em up, or get the snowmobile out.
thatsapickle
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Dallas, TX
Joined: 03.08.2012

Aug 27 @ 4:33 PM ET
Time to lace em up, or get the snowmobile out.
- Buffalo-Sabres



Many people here are worried about El Nino. It is the year for it, and we are well overdue for rain. I wouldn't mind it, but it will almost guarantee mudslides. Should be a fun "winter" for us.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Aug 27 @ 4:37 PM ET
Many people here are worried about El Nino. It is the year for it, and we are well overdue for rain. I wouldn't mind it, but it will almost guarantee mudslides. Should be a fun "winter" for us.
- thatsapickle


Dats a Mighty taco item. Think i will get one tonight. Thanks for the idea
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Aug 27 @ 4:39 PM ET
Many people here are worried about El Nino. It is the year for it, and we are well overdue for rain. I wouldn't mind it, but it will almost guarantee mudslides. Should be a fun "winter" for us.
- thatsapickle


And this is one of the many reasons I live in Buffalo and not one of the warm climate areas.

I'll take shoveling snow out of my drive way over shoveling mud out of my living room any day. Not to mention my house is in the same place all the time. No tornados, crazy wildfires, hurricanes, mudslides, etc.
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Aug 27 @ 4:42 PM ET
Dats a Mighty taco item. Think i will get one tonight. Thanks for the idea
- cabin


I'll pass. Trying to stay away from that stuff.

I'm gonna have grilled salmon and zucchini for dinner. Yum!
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Aug 27 @ 4:42 PM ET
They regretting coming here now? After all this heat and humidity?
- burner087


They have spent a lot of time inside in the AC!
CaptainRivet
Buffalo Sabres
Location: on Bored, NY
Joined: 12.26.2008

Aug 27 @ 5:18 PM ET
Well written, Michael, and not as boring, self-indulgent or self-serving as these analytics blogs that are soiling the intertwebs as of late.

"Hey, maybe if I keep writing analytics blogs on things such as how many goals so and so scored while skating a) over 25 mhp b) under 25 mhp c) exactly 25 mhp, or how many times so and so won a faceoff when the puck was dropped with the league logo a) face up b) face down c) on it's side, some NHL team will notice me - HEY! HERE I AM! - and give me a job in the analytics department ".

I mean, really? There's some d!ckhead re-watching every single game from last season to analyze zone breakouts or some crap. GET A JOB!

Anyway, rant over.

Now, Michael, we need a blog on individual goal projections for this team. Fun. Simple. Generates conversation.

- grand-magus

This.
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Aug 27 @ 6:20 PM ET
I have no idea whether this team will be able to improve considerably in the standings, but I'll be interested to see what happens under a full year of Nolan.

Here's why. I throw away the last two months of last season, when the team was 3-17-2. it's after the trade deadline, when all our genuine leaders were traded away, primarily for picks and prospects. It's also when Neuwirth, Stewart, Enroth and Myers went on extended injured reserve after suffering what initially appeared to be "less serious injuries."

I'm not saying Nolan is a superman, but his record from the date of his hire through the end of February was 14-19-7. That sucks, but it's way, way better than what wound up happening after "the confluence of factors" that led to the record in the last two months of the season.
Themomentgood
Joined: 03.16.2014

Aug 27 @ 8:06 PM ET
I have no idea whether this team will be able to improve considerably in the standings, but I'll be interested to see what happens under a full year of Nolan.

Here's why. I throw away the last two months of last season, when the team was 3-17-2. it's after the trade deadline, when all our genuine leaders were traded away, primarily for picks and prospects. It's also when Neuwirth, Stewart, Enroth and Myers went on extended injured reserve after suffering what initially appeared to be "less serious injuries."

I'm not saying Nolan is a superman, but his record from the date of his hire through the end of February was 14-19-7. That sucks, but it's way, way better than what wound up happening after "the confluence of factors" that led to the record in the last two months of the season.

- Der Kaiser


The same thing is going to happen this trade deadline though. All the UFA's will be traded, so thats: Stewart, Stafford, Meszaros, and both goalies. And if he can get something worthwhile for Kaleta or Mitchell I am sure he will. And who knows what trades he is going to make with the other players on the team. We can look forward to a season long run of Myers/Hodgson rumors. And he is going to have to start trading away prospects to make room for the new ones and college players that he is going to have to start giving out contracts to. And thats not counting the injuries that are inevitably going to happen. So even if the teams record is almost tolerable by the deadline (which is a big if), its going to go downhill fast again following the trade deadline.

It honestly wouldn't surprise me that as soon as Stewart starts showing his former potential he is gone, if he even makes it to the end of training camp as a Sabre.
jaumiller
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Ask not what Matt Ellis can do for you, ask what can you do for Matt Ellis. , NY
Joined: 12.06.2012

Aug 27 @ 8:30 PM ET
yeah, they could've done better...like filling the middle with vanilla custard and topping it with chocolate icing
- Michael Pachla

Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Aug 27 @ 8:43 PM ET
The same thing is going to happen this trade deadline though. All the UFA's will be traded, so thats: Stewart, Stafford, Meszaros, and both goalies. And if he can get something worthwhile for Kaleta or Mitchell I am sure he will. And who knows what trades he is going to make with the other players on the team. We can look forward to a season long run of Myers/Hodgson rumors. And he is going to have to start trading away prospects to make room for the new ones and college players that he is going to have to start giving out contracts to. And thats not counting the injuries that are inevitably going to happen. So even if the teams record is almost tolerable by the deadline (which is a big if), its going to go downhill fast again following the trade deadline.

It honestly wouldn't surprise me that as soon as Stewart starts showing his former potential he is gone, if he even makes it to the end of training camp as a Sabre.

- Themomentgood



Dug into it a little deeper.

Under Nolan, the team earned 44% of the points available from Nov. 13 (his hire date) to the end of February (when the free fall started). If they had replicated that pace all year long (instead of the miserable 22% earned under Rolston) they would have had 51 points at the end of February, instead of only 42.

And that would have tied them for last place, with the Panthers.

Hodgson and Myers to Dallas for their 2015 first 2016 first, Cody Eakin, and Jason Richardinson
bjm1717
New York Islanders
Location: Sam Reinhart is the next Wayne Gretzky!
Joined: 08.18.2011

Aug 27 @ 9:50 PM ET
Dug into it a little deeper.

Under Nolan, the team earned 44% of the points available from Nov. 13 (his hire date) to the end of February (when the free fall started). If they had replicated that pace all year long (instead of the miserable 22% earned under Rolston) they would have had 51 points at the end of February, instead of only 42.

And that would have tied them for last place, with the Panthers.

Hodgson and Myers to Dallas for their 2015 first 2016 first, Cody Eakin, and Jason Richardinson

- Der Kaiser


What a horrible trade proposal. How long do you want this rebuild to go?
Themomentgood
Joined: 03.16.2014

Aug 27 @ 10:08 PM ET
Dug into it a little deeper.

Under Nolan, the team earned 44% of the points available from Nov. 13 (his hire date) to the end of February (when the free fall started). If they had replicated that pace all year long (instead of the miserable 22% earned under Rolston) they would have had 51 points at the end of February, instead of only 42.

And that would have tied them for last place, with the Panthers.

Hodgson and Myers to Dallas for their 2015 first 2016 first, Cody Eakin, and Jason Richardinson

- Der Kaiser


I guess I would only really be interested in a lottery teams 1st. Preferably a top 10. So I dont see Dallas there. Maybe Calgary or Ottawa, but they arent trading their 1st. Thats one of the reasons Stewart is still a Sabre. Ottawa wouldnt give up their 1st.

Also for the record, I wouldnt trade Myers unless it was a stupid offer that no team is going to make. I would also like a full season of seeing Hodgson on the wing before entertaining any trades.
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Aug 27 @ 10:37 PM ET
I guess I would only really be interested in a lottery teams 1st. Preferably a top 10. So I dont see Dallas there. Maybe Calgary or Ottawa, but they arent trading their 1st. Thats one of the reasons Stewart is still a Sabre. Ottawa wouldnt give up their 1st.

Also for the record, I wouldnt trade Myers unless it was a stupid offer that no team is going to make. I would also like a full season of seeing Hodgson on the wing before entertaining any trades.

- Themomentgood[/

Apparently it was a bad joke. I really wasn't proposing a trade. I was only trying to pick up on - and agree with - your suggestion that there isn't going to be much to talk about other than trade proposals. Hodgson and Myers are the guys you named.

There are at least half a dozen other guys I would try to trade first - before either Myers or Hodgson.
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