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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: (Relatively) Simple math. 2014-15 Sabres team goal projections
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stashu
Buffalo Sabres
Location: SC
Joined: 06.04.2008

Aug 27 @ 1:02 PM ET
He started 7-1 with them though.

I know his numbers free fell, but so did the teams, I think they scored 6 total goals in their last 6 regular season games.

IMO he will end up a disaster in Vancouver anyway.... Vancouver is on their way down to the bottom sooner than later.


Edit: St. Louis scored 8 total goals in their final 8 games

- sbroads24


Goals scored for the team isn't what makes a goalie "stand on his head" though. I just meant he seems to be the type to thrive on facing more shots.

In his regular seasons games with St. Louis, he faced 30+ shots 4 times (3 of those times was 30 or 31 shots, so barely).

Yes, his first 8 games were amazing, but he fell off from there on. In the remaining 11 games of the regular season he allowed 3+ goals in 9 of those 11 games, with an average shots against of almost 25 per game. In Buffalo he faced an average of almost 32 shots per game the last 3 seasons.

I think he'll have a bit of an adjustment period in Vancouver when he starts, but I think he needs to face more shots to keep himself in the game a bit more.

Not too familiar with Vancouver, but my guess is they're not a hugely defensive team, so he may feel at home.
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 27 @ 1:04 PM ET
This is probably one of the best articles I have read on this site since I have been coming here. Insightful and realistic like others have said.

This team will not be as bad as before, but they will not be a surprise. I think that we will see an increase in goals scored and hopefully a cohesive defense. If the goalies are average, we will get 5-10 extra wins and the games will be entertaining to watch at the very least.

- thatsapickle


10 more wins, which is almost a 50% increase over last season, would put them at 72 points and place them 3rd from the bottom of last year's standings...

7 more wins and they still would've been in last place
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Aug 27 @ 1:10 PM ET
Goals scored for the team isn't what makes a goalie "stand on his head" though. I just meant he seems to be the type to thrive on facing more shots.

In his regular seasons games with St. Louis, he faced 30+ shots 4 times (3 of those times was 30 or 31 shots, so barely).

Yes, his first 8 games were amazing, but he fell off from there on. In the remaining 11 games of the regular season he allowed 3+ goals in 9 of those 11 games, with an average shots against of almost 25 per game. In Buffalo he faced an average of almost 32 shots per game the last 3 seasons.

I think he'll have a bit of an adjustment period in Vancouver when he starts, but I think he needs to face more shots to keep himself in the game a bit more.

Not too familiar with Vancouver, but my guess is they're not a hugely defensive team, so he may feel at home.

- stashu

He very well might need more work to stay mentally in it. I just don't believe he's necessarily better or worse from one team to another. I think at this point he's still someone who can win the game that you don't deserve to win, something that our current goalies have yet to showcase, doesn't mean they won't develop into that though
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Aug 27 @ 1:11 PM ET
Nolan has had a few guys have those uncharacteristic seasons under him. I wonder how much of a coincidence it really is
- sbroads24



Has he though? I mean yes Myers and Stafford seemingly improved with him as coach but both of those guys are capable of it and have shown it in the past.

Blake had a career year in his contract year and went back to his usual self when he signed his big deal with the leafs.
stashu
Buffalo Sabres
Location: SC
Joined: 06.04.2008

Aug 27 @ 1:16 PM ET
He very well might need more work to stay mentally in it. I just don't believe he's necessarily better or worse from one team to another. I think at this point he's still someone who can win the game that you don't deserve to win, something that our current goalies have yet to showcase, doesn't mean they won't develop into that though
- sbroads24


What's his playoff record again?

It's no secret I'm a Miller "hater", but I thought for sure he was going to break out in St. Louis. That team has made goalies look good for a while, so to have an actual good goalie in there I figured would be a lock for much better results.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Aug 27 @ 1:18 PM ET
Has he though? I mean yes Myers and Stafford seemingly improved with him as coach but both of those guys are capable of it and have shown it in the past.

Blake had a career year in his contract year and went back to his usual self when he signed his big deal with the leafs.

- Sabresfan-365

Yes, he has

Matthew Barnaby, Derek Plante, Brian Holzinger, Jason Dawe, Mike Sillinger, Jason Blake have all had their career years under Nolan
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Aug 27 @ 1:33 PM ET
Yes, he has

Matthew Barnaby, Derek Plante, Brian Holzinger, Jason Dawe, Mike Sillinger, Jason Blake have all had their career years under Nolan

- sbroads24



And aside from Blake, none of those career years were worth writing home about. He largely gets some bad players to play mediocre hockey. When he brings out an all-star caliber year in somebody, then I'll lend credence to that theory.
HonkFortheGoose
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "___________ stinks."-Sabres89, NY
Joined: 07.26.2008

Aug 27 @ 1:45 PM ET
The Amerks schedule is out, in case anyone wanted to know.
yen6d1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: maxim Afinogenov, NY
Joined: 02.21.2011

Aug 27 @ 1:54 PM ET
Saw comments in a recent article about what you would give up to trade for mcdavid or eichel. Far away yes..but even if we got the 3-5 spot wouldn't you rather keep the 3 first rounders and a player instead of trading up to 1 or 2?
buffalofan19
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Wonderful things can happen when you sow seeds of distrust in a garden full of (bum)holes
Joined: 07.01.2007

Aug 27 @ 2:00 PM ET
Saw comments in a recent article about what you would give up to trade for mcdavid or eichel. Far away yes..but even if we got the 3-5 spot wouldn't you rather keep the 3 first rounders and a player instead of trading up to 1 or 2?
- yen6d1



If McDavid and/or Eichel turn out to be the generational talents everyone expects them to be, then it's more than worth it. Personally, if some other team is willing to oblige, I want my team to take that risk.
Buffalo-Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I lost a bet, NY
Joined: 07.05.2007

Aug 27 @ 2:00 PM ET
Saw comments in a recent article about what you would give up to trade for mcdavid or eichel. Far away yes..but even if we got the 3-5 spot wouldn't you rather keep the 3 first rounders and a player instead of trading up to 1 or 2?
- yen6d1



I'd be good with doing either. Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos and Ovetchkin. 2 total cups, (1 obviously shared with teammates), in 32 combined seasons. Many LA Kings players have just as many as contributing players on a deep team.
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Aug 27 @ 2:04 PM ET
And aside from Blake, none of those career years were worth writing home about. He largely gets some bad players to play mediocre hockey. When he brings out an all-star caliber year in somebody, then I'll lend credence to that theory.
- buffalofan19


He would then have to have a team that has some talent on it other than Hasek name his "talent" that he has had to work with.

Getting 3rd and 4th liners to produce in the 40-55 pt range IMO is better than having a ppg player turn in a 95 pt season
Buffalo-Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I lost a bet, NY
Joined: 07.05.2007

Aug 27 @ 2:04 PM ET
He would then have to have a team that has some talent on it other than Hasek name his "talent" that he has had to work with.

Getting 3rd and 4th liners to produce in the 40-55 pt range IMO is better than having a ppg player turn in a 95 pt season

- Stripes77



What I said, but in a more intelligent fashion.


Stripes did you complete the move?
yen6d1
Buffalo Sabres
Location: maxim Afinogenov, NY
Joined: 02.21.2011

Aug 27 @ 2:07 PM ET
If McDavid and/or Eichel turn out to be the generational talents everyone expects them to be, then it's more than worth it. Personally, if some other team is willing to oblige, I want my team to take that risk.
- buffalofan19


I think i'd have to agree. We need a risk. And on the flip side it'd be interesting to see what wed recieve if in the 1 or 2 slot.

Bills took the risk this year with sammy, it'd be nice to see buffalo living on the edge
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Aug 27 @ 2:09 PM ET
What I said, but in a more intelligent fashion.


Stripes did you complete the move?

- Buffalo-Sabres


I did complete the move thanks!! My wife and daughter made it down here last Friday so the Stripes family (and my sanity) and whole again.

sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Aug 27 @ 2:11 PM ET
And aside from Blake, none of those career years were worth writing home about. He largely gets some bad players to play mediocre hockey. When he brings out an all-star caliber year in somebody, then I'll lend credence to that theory.
- buffalofan19

None of the players (Besides Hasek) for either the Isles or Sabres are anything to write home about
Buffalo-Sabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I lost a bet, NY
Joined: 07.05.2007

Aug 27 @ 2:15 PM ET
I did complete the move thanks!! My wife and daughter made it down here last Friday so the Stripes family (and my sanity) and whole again.
- Stripes77



Good to hear.
Der Kaiser
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I Know Nothink ... NOTHINK!
Joined: 07.27.2007

Aug 27 @ 2:16 PM ET
Don't think this news has been broken here yet. BurgerKing/Tim Horton's will now make available the Buffalo Crunch Donut:

http://www.grubstreet.com...a.html?mid=twitter_grubst
Maximum Signal
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 07.11.2008

Aug 27 @ 2:21 PM ET
What's his playoff record again?

It's no secret I'm a Miller "hater", but I thought for sure he was going to break out in St. Louis. That team has made goalies look good for a while, so to have an actual good goalie in there I figured would be a lock for much better results.

- stashu



Okay Schoop . Haters are going to hate . No mention of how Blues coaching staff insisted he change his game there . Pretty stupid . You know what you traded for . Then in the off season they do not resign him ( fine ) . Then bring in the goaltending coach that basically taught him his style . Management in Saint Louis is all over the place like a fart in the wind.
ImNoTroll
Location: RISTO is equal in value to = Druin + Johnson - MEBSabresFAN
Joined: 06.24.2014

Aug 27 @ 2:22 PM ET
And if they reach 28th in the league, they completely screwed up the season.
Maximum Signal
Season Ticket Holder
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 07.11.2008

Aug 27 @ 2:22 PM ET
Don't think this news has been broken here yet. BurgerKing/Tim Horton's will now make available the Buffalo Crunch Donut:

http://www.grubstreet.com...a.html?mid=twitter_grubst

- Der Kaiser


That just not do it for me . Have to get a report from someone that tried one.




sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Aug 27 @ 2:23 PM ET
Okay Schoop . Haters are going to hate . No mention of how blues coaching staff insisted he change his game there . Pretty stupid . You know what you traded for . Then in the off season they do not resign him ( fine ) . Then bring in the goaltending coach that basically taught hi his style . Management in Saint Louis is all over the place like a fart in the wind.
- Maximum Signal

St. Louis is fine. They should have never traded for Miller to begin with. They needed scoring depth. As it proved (regardless of how the rest of the team played) Miller wasn't the peice to push them ahead of a Chicago or LA
IndianaSabresFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Matt FRICKIN ELLIS, IN
Joined: 01.17.2007

Aug 27 @ 2:24 PM ET
I think i'd have to agree. We need a risk. And on the flip side it'd be interesting to see what wed recieve if in the 1 or 2 slot.

Bills took the risk this year with sammy, it'd be nice to see buffalo living on the edge

- yen6d1

what if we ended up in 1 and 2? that could be epic.. just throw out the 2nd for a bidding war so we can space out our ELC..
jaumiller
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Ask not what Matt Ellis can do for you, ask what can you do for Matt Ellis. , NY
Joined: 12.06.2012

Aug 27 @ 2:25 PM ET
Don't think this news has been broken here yet. BurgerKing/Tim Horton's will now make available the Buffalo Crunch Donut:

http://www.grubstreet.com...a.html?mid=twitter_grubst

- Der Kaiser

That's just wrong on so many levels.
Stripes77
Referee
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Where ever Matt Ellis allows me to be, NY
Joined: 07.30.2012

Aug 27 @ 2:27 PM ET
what if we ended up in 1 and 2? that could be epic.. just throw out the 2nd for a bidding war so we can space out our ELC..
- IndianaSabresFan


I would keep 1 and 2 so we wouldn't have the should have drafted so and so over...
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