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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Analyzing Zone Exits By Penguins Defensemen
Author Message
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Aug 27 @ 7:27 PM ET
Haters gonna hate I guess....but seriously complaining about someone elses work because it matches what you see with the eye test? That's a worthwhile problem to take time out of your day to complain about? You do have the option to not comment if you have nothing worthwhile to add to the discussion.

I really like this kind of data. I'm sure NHL coaches talk about zone exit and entry fairly frequently. Yes, its more static data than corsi or fenwick....more like RBIs or Runs. But that doesn't mean it doesn't have value. There are plenty of things in this data that at least raise an eyebrow. I wouldn't have guessed Maatta led the team in percentage of turnovers....or that Engelland and Bortuzzo were quite effective in their bottom pairing roles despite not being known for their puck skill.

I guess we could talk about all the other things in the hockey world happening in August...

Ben37
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: One of the Most Respected Hockeybuzz Posters, AB
Joined: 04.07.2010

Aug 27 @ 7:29 PM ET
Right cuz MTN biking, shooting guns, general exercise, skiing is much lamer than trying to create your own NHL job by proving how much of a dork you are by re watching an entire season.
- sammy87


This post reads as if you are trying to hard to prove that you have a life.
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Aug 27 @ 7:30 PM ET
Right cuz MTN biking, shooting guns, general exercise, skiing is much lamer than trying to create your own NHL job by proving how much of a dork you are by re watching an entire season.
- sammy87


wow
stackthepads
Joined: 05.13.2013

Aug 27 @ 8:08 PM ET
Right cuz MTN biking, shooting guns, general exercise, skiing is much lamer than trying to create your own NHL job by proving how much of a dork you are by re watching an entire season.
- sammy87


Point of advise to you;
Once you leave high school, invalidating someone elses pursuits because they don't fit your conception of worthwile doesn't make you cool anymore.
stackthepads
Joined: 05.13.2013

Aug 27 @ 8:15 PM ET
This data is nice for adding to my excitement for the upcoing season. I really like our d corp the more I look at them.
If they get rid of Scuds (which I dont think is as far fetched as most do) we easily have the most mobile defense in the league.

Letang Martin
Ehrhoff Maata
Depres Bortuzzo

It just looks so nice. Especially with Johnstons system of dmen jumping up into the rush.
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Aug 27 @ 8:15 PM ET
Right cuz MTN biking, shooting guns, general exercise, skiing is much lamer than trying to create your own NHL job by proving how much of a dork you are by re watching an entire season.
- sammy87


Someone is overcompensating for something
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 27 @ 8:18 PM ET
Point of advise to you;
Once you leave high school, invalidating someone elses pursuits because they don't fit your conception of worthwile doesn't make you cool anymore.

- stackthepads


I'm sorry but watching 2,460 games and coming up with a stat that re affirms what just about everyone else knew watching 10 games seems like an incredible waste of time, and on top of it all to ask for donation for your hobby. Just seems like there could be better things to do with ones time.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Aug 27 @ 8:30 PM ET
I'm sorry but watching 2,460 games and coming up with a stat that re affirms what just about everyone else knew watching 10 games seems like an incredible waste of time, and on top of it all to ask for donation for your hobby. Just seems like there could be better things to do with ones time.
- sammy87

like post on internet forums?
stackthepads
Joined: 05.13.2013

Aug 27 @ 8:34 PM ET
I'm sorry but watching 2,460 games and coming up with a stat that re affirms what just about everyone else knew watching 10 games seems like an incredible waste of time, and on top of it all to ask for donation for your hobby. Just seems like there could be better things to do with ones time.
- sammy87



Most scientists spend their entire careers gathering evidence to prove what we already know. The proof is important to most people because perception (aka watching 10 games) is always skewed by the viewer, especially in sports where people have attachments to teams and players.
And if you could get a donation or say a sponsorship from MTN biking wouldnt you?
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Aug 27 @ 8:36 PM ET
like post on internet forums?
- BulliesPhan87


gotta get some cream for that burn
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Aug 27 @ 9:12 PM ET
because perception (aka watching 10 games) is always skewed by the viewer
- stackthepads


Well, in the case of the stats presented, there's still a viewer - the guy watching all the games and running these stats. He's got his own concept of what a successful zone exit looks like. For instance, if Letang skates around and through 2 defenders and makes a perfect outlet pass to Craig Adams near the blue line, but Adams can't take the pass resulting in a turnover and extended zone time, what does that count as for Letang? Successful or unsuccessful zone exit?

Same with turnovers. What counts as a turnover in the mind of the stat compiler. For instance NHL.com has Scuderi down for 21 giveaways on the year. This watch every game guy has Scuderi down for 39.5 giveaways in the defensive zone. Who's right? What counts as a giveaway?

I remember folks warning each other not to trust NHL real time stats a couple of weeks ago. Isn't this guy just doing solo real time stats? If so, why doubt the work of paid NHL statisticians, but trust the work of one guy watching boatloads of hockey?
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Aug 27 @ 9:16 PM ET
Well, in the case of the stats presented, there's still a viewer - the guy watching all the games and running these stats. He's got his own concept of what a successful zone exit looks like. For instance, if Letang skates around and through 2 defenders and makes a perfect outlet pass to Craig Adams near the blue line, but Adams can't take the pass resulting in a turnover and extended zone time, what does that count as for Letang? Successful or unsuccessful zone exit?

Same with turnovers. What counts as a turnover in the mind of the stat compiler. For instance NHL.com has Scuderi down for 21 giveaways on the year. This watch every game guy has Scuderi down for 39.5 giveaways in the defensive zone. Who's right? What counts as a giveaway?

I remember folks warning each other not to trust NHL real time stats a couple of weeks ago. Isn't this guy just doing solo real time stats? If so, why doubt the work of paid NHL statisticians, but trust the work of one guy watching boatloads of hockey?

- hardnosed


"other" for your Letang example, it doesn't count against him, it counts against Adams

As for the turnover giveaway stuff on NHL.com, disregard it, it isn't accurate from rink to rink.

You can trust the data of one person (in this instance Corey Sznajder) because his standard doesn't change from game to game. It is consistent.
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Aug 27 @ 9:27 PM ET

You can trust the data of one person (in this instance Corey Sznajder) because his standard doesn't change from game to game. It is consistent.

- Ryan_Wilson


But it's still his standard, and we don't really know if it changed over the duration. If he's being honest, he'd probably admit that watching that much hockey changed his perspective. Unless each of us individually views every play from last season, too, we have no way to know if this guy's tallies are accurate, or if we agree with them.

Ultimately, zone exit success is a subjective stat.
stackthepads
Joined: 05.13.2013

Aug 27 @ 9:28 PM ET
Well, in the case of the stats presented, there's still a viewer - the guy watching all the games and running these stats. He's got his own concept of what a successful zone exit looks like. For instance, if Letang skates around and through 2 defenders and makes a perfect outlet pass to Craig Adams near the blue line, but Adams can't take the pass resulting in a turnover and extended zone time, what does that count as for Letang? Successful or unsuccessful zone exit?

Same with turnovers. What counts as a turnover in the mind of the stat compiler. For instance NHL.com has Scuderi down for 21 giveaways on the year. This watch every game guy has Scuderi down for 39.5 giveaways in the defensive zone. Who's right? What counts as a giveaway?

I remember folks warning each other not to trust NHL real time stats a couple of weeks ago. Isn't this guy just doing solo real time stats? If so, why doubt the work of paid NHL statisticians, but trust the work of one guy watching boatloads of hockey?

- hardnosed



This is true, but you'd hope (and if he is watching 1000s of games he likely is) trying to be impartial and consistent with his perception.

When you or I watch a game, and the Letang pass to Adams give away led to a goal, we hate Adams and Letang is a moron for even thinking of passing to Adams. Crap now we're down by a goal, if this is a playoff game was the goal also Fleury's fault? Is he going in implode now? DAMMIT frig why is the coach putting out our fourth line after a goal..... and after this game Letang is a giveaway machine.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Aug 27 @ 9:53 PM ET
So... time for someone to fess up. Who pissed in sammy's cheerios and made him into a whining little baby today?
cygnus41
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.23.2012

Aug 27 @ 10:24 PM ET
"other" for your Letang example, it doesn't count against him, it counts against Adams

As for the turnover giveaway stuff on NHL.com, disregard it, it isn't accurate from rink to rink.

You can trust the data of one person (in this instance Corey Sznajder) because his standard doesn't change from game to game. It is consistent.

- Ryan_Wilson


In a Bylsma interview he mentioned that their personally recorded giveaway numbers are an order of magnitude higher than the NHL's ones.

It's pretty clear that Despres has earned more responsibility and consistency if nothing else.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Aug 27 @ 10:57 PM ET
Most scientists spend their entire careers gathering evidence to prove what we already know. The proof is important to most people because perception (aka watching 10 games) is always skewed by the viewer, especially in sports where people have attachments to teams and players.
And if you could get a donation or say a sponsorship from MTN biking wouldnt you?

- stackthepads


Technically you can never "prove" a theory is true that scientists research. You can only gather information and to have stronger support for the theory. A key component of a theory is that it can be falsifiable. #themoreyouknow
87_71_11_29
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: In a van down by the river, PA
Joined: 01.18.2007

Aug 27 @ 11:33 PM ET
I'm gonna start treating stats in sports as I do religion and politics...off the table for discussion!
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Aug 27 @ 11:45 PM ET
Are there any stats out there for controlled zone entry? I feel like thats where you can tell the difference in skilled players. Dump and chase should always be a fallback plan, imo.
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Aug 27 @ 11:48 PM ET
Are there any stats out there for controlled zone entry? I feel like thats where you can tell the difference in skilled players. Dump and chase should always be a fallback plan, imo.
- YouMeAndDupuis9


Of course. Also stats that show which players are best at defending entry.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Aug 28 @ 12:24 AM ET
like post on internet forums?
- BulliesPhan87



Good point. How do I set up a donation fund for posting on this board? I will take a lump sum or a small donation each post.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Aug 28 @ 12:30 AM ET
So... ripping on somebody for their hobby and their excitement to share that hobby is really lame. But also really lame is donating to somebody for said hobby. donate to something a bit worth-while. The only ones who should ever give any money to this gentleman are people like Mr. Gunner who use said data to aid there own professional exploits.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Aug 28 @ 1:10 AM ET
So... ripping on somebody for their hobby and their excitement to share that hobby is really lame. But also really lame is donating to somebody for said hobby. donate to something a bit worth-while. The only ones who should ever give any money to this gentleman are people like Mr. Gunner who use said data to aid there own professional exploits.
- ChrisMS


Yea i dont understand the donations part. How will my donations help with you sitting in front of a tv all day-every day and writing about what you see? Is it to pay for your life since you clearly dont have one?
Ben37
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: One of the Most Respected Hockeybuzz Posters, AB
Joined: 04.07.2010

Aug 28 @ 1:42 AM ET
Yea i dont understand the donations part. How will my donations help with you sitting in front of a tv all day-every day and writing about what you see?
- drummer829


I'll take those donations.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Aug 28 @ 2:41 AM ET
Yea i dont understand the donations part. How will my donations help with you sitting in front of a tv all day-every day and writing about what you see? Is it to pay for your life since you clearly dont have one?
- drummer829



If you checked the gofundme a bit closer.... this was apparently a project going on for over 4 months.

Had he not gotten money, he'd likely have stopped by now. But hey, if you think ~$6500 over 4 months as a salary for a part time job is too much, don't donate. He's doing a service to a limited market and using that as a way to make some money. You don't have to like it.

I'm sure you would mock the guy who has to watch porn all day for producers to make sure that any copyrighted items or material get edited out or changed before its released. Yes, thats a real job, a friend of mine from college's brother did it. Don't ask me how or where you apply for that, I lost 250$ betting against that it was real ~_~.
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