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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Addition by Subtraction
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nikel
Buffalo Sabres
Location: las vegas, NV
Joined: 01.15.2013

Aug 27 @ 10:29 AM ET
The only way reinhart makes the team is if he is top six foward with powerplay time. If this happens he has a shot to win calder it would be a long shot but alot better then draisaitl. He is not ready for NHL espically with a poor defensive team like edmenton. Also Reinhart is alot better then Draisaitl.
- hanleyaj


Is this really something that's known yet?.....being great in the minors is not the same as translating it to the NHL.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 27 @ 10:36 AM ET
Well, actually i did not forget that point........That's why C accounted for seasons where he had fewer than 50 pts. but there were also SIGNIFICANT GAMES MISSED, I didn't say injury was the only reason why games could be missed. The two season i included in this category were last season(jaw injury) and the lockout season.
- nikel


They way you worded your analysis you are treating the 48 game scheduled regular season like it is an event that could re-occur. If you are using history to predict the future, an event like that is all but certain to not re-occur next year and should not be in your sample as is.

Again, my point is you can't rush development, players develop at their own pace.

BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 27 @ 10:54 AM ET
The only way reinhart makes the team is if he is top six foward with powerplay time. If this happens he has a shot to win calder it would be a long shot but alot better then draisaitl. He is not ready for NHL espically with a poor defensive team like edmenton. Also Reinhart is alot better then Draisaitl.
- hanleyaj



Draisaitl- 105 points in 64 games
Reinhart- 105 points in 60 games

They played against the same competition.

I'd say one definitely isn't a lot better than the other. Especially when you consider how poopty the team Draisaitl played on was.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 27 @ 10:58 AM ET
Is this really something that's known yet?.....being great in the minors is not the same as translating it to the NHL.
- nikel



They were very very similar in Junior.
nikel
Buffalo Sabres
Location: las vegas, NV
Joined: 01.15.2013

Aug 27 @ 12:37 PM ET
They way you worded your analysis you are treating the 48 game scheduled regular season like it is an event that could re-occur. If you are using history to predict the future, an event like that is all but certain to not re-occur next year and should not be in your sample as is.

Again, my point is you can't rush development, players develop at their own pace.

- Tumbleweed


It's ok to admit when you're wrong.

Not quite sure how you tied my comment into player development though?
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 27 @ 1:00 PM ET
It's ok to admit when you're wrong.

Not quite sure how you tied my comment into player development though?

- nikel


There is a common sense mistake you are making in your analysis. If you can't see the flaw, I can't help you.

I take very different viewpoint on player development which you are obviously unable to comprehend.
hanleyaj
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Buffalo, NY
Joined: 01.20.2014

Aug 27 @ 1:29 PM ET
Is this really something that's known yet?.....being great in the minors is not the same as translating it to the NHL.
- nikel


I believe Reinhart is more complete player and his game will translate more easily to the nhl. He has elite hockey IQ which help alot in the NHL.
I am not saying draisaitl is not going to be good but their is a reason why reinhart was first foward taken in the draft.
Also north americans seem to make easier adjustment to nhl and usually turn out to be better players. I mean he was highest german born player ever, it might mean nothing but i would take the north american player over European anyday.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 27 @ 1:43 PM ET
I believe Reinhart is more complete player and his game will translate more easily to the nhl. He has elite hockey IQ which help alot in the NHL.
I am not saying draisaitl is not going to be good but their is a reason why reinhart was first foward taken in the draft.
Also north americans seem to make easier adjustment to nhl and usually turn out to be better players. I mean he was highest german born player ever, it might mean nothing but i would take the north american player over European anyday.

- hanleyaj



It means absolutely nothing.

Draisaitl HAS BEEN PLAYING IN NORTH AMERICA FOR TWO YEARS.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 27 @ 2:03 PM ET
I don't really like the idea of adding Penner at all. He hasn't been very good lately. With Boedker, Hanzal, Domi, Erat, Gagner, Samuelson, Korpikoski, Doan, Vermette, I don't think their top 9 is as bad as people make it out to be. Plus, they have nice depth for the fourth line in Vitale, Klinkhammer, Macmillan (can move up) Chipchura etc.

Really, they make lack a star player or two, but they aren't as bad as people think. Plus, Boedker is a wild card because he can be a legit star. Same with Hanzal really.

I still wound't completely rule out a Yandle for a star forward trade as training camp gets going and trades start happening again.

- James_Tanner


Fair enough on Penner. Really slim pickings left in the UFA market.

Personally, I would like to see Yandle traded before the year starts if he is going to be traded. I also wouldn't be upset if they locked him long-term before the start of the 2015-16 season. I am guessing he'll be looking for +$6M and 6-7 years.

I think the forward group as it is has the ability to score just enough goals to get the team into the playoffs. A lot of offense should come from the back-end to supplement what's missing in star power up front.

I am worried about running with 2 rookies in the top 9 and having a couple injuries occur to veterans. Not sure the depth exists to cover that scenario; also considering the bigger roles some of the other younger players will be getting and the potential inconsistencies that go along with that.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 27 @ 6:27 PM ET
that's awesome
- Tumbleweed



I got told, son.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 27 @ 6:31 PM ET
I got told, son.
- BINGO!


your sure got told
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

Aug 27 @ 6:32 PM ET
your sure got told
- Tumbleweed

HB77
Edmonton Oilers
Location: PC is a genius for drafting mcdavid
Joined: 02.20.2007

Aug 27 @ 8:20 PM ET
It means absolutely nothing.

Draisaitl HAS BEEN PLAYING IN NORTH AMERICA FOR TWO YEARS.

- BINGO!

This

He's attempting to pass his opinion off as fact.

He literally has nothing to back his claims up.

Domi is unequivically better.
Reinhart is unequivocally better.

They both very well may end up superior, but at this point there is next to nothing to suggest they will.
All guesswork.

Draisaitl has had no problems in NA. Dude is a tank and loves playing a downlow game and protecting the puck in close quarters.
His flaw through scouts is his top end speed which is generally not a trait of european raised players. Dude thrives in north america. We'll see how he turns out I guess. Crapshoot

dapeopleschamp4
Location: AZ
Joined: 07.27.2014

Aug 27 @ 8:21 PM ET
Subban, Norris*
- Pea-Brain

Yeah and it should of went to a guy who actually plays defense in Ryan Suter.P.K. is a joke when it comes to playing defense.
dapeopleschamp4
Location: AZ
Joined: 07.27.2014

Aug 27 @ 8:29 PM ET
Yeah, he sounds very smart.


Who's this Hanzel guy ?

- WaterBoy
He's Gretels friend.
dapeopleschamp4
Location: AZ
Joined: 07.27.2014

Aug 27 @ 8:54 PM ET
I don't really like the idea of adding Penner at all. He hasn't been very good lately. With Boedker, Hanzal, Domi, Erat, Gagner, Samuelson, Korpikoski, Doan, Vermette, I don't think their top 9 is as bad as people make it out to be. Plus, they have nice depth for the fourth line in Vitale, Klinkhammer, Macmillan (can move up) Chipchura etc.

Really, they make lack a star player or two, but they aren't as bad as people think. Plus, Boedker is a wild card because he can be a legit star. Same with Hanzal really.

I still wound't completely rule out a Yandle for a star forward trade as training camp gets going and trades start happening again.

- James_Tanner

You can rule out that Yandle for a forward crap as he is the Yotes next captain.Doan and Vermette will be traded to actual contenders by or before the trade deadline as the Coyotes will be out of contention well before then.Also people have grossly overrated the Coyotes defensive depth.Yandle and OEL are stud's, Michalek is a solid stay at home defenseman who is tough as nails but his contract is up after the season,Murphy and Gormley have only seen a small sample size not ready to say their top 6 d yet,unfortunately I've seen enough of Schlemko and Stone to know they suck and Chris Summers got a 2 year contract but he is average at best.I also believe Henrik Samuelson is more NHL ready then Domi.He is more physical,gets under opposing teams skin and can score just look at his point totals the last 2 years with the Oil Kings.He also had 5 points in this years Memorial Cup final.So all this talk about Domi is nice but definitely Henrik deserves it just as much or even more at making the Coyotes roster this year.
nikel
Buffalo Sabres
Location: las vegas, NV
Joined: 01.15.2013

Aug 28 @ 1:40 PM ET
There is a common sense mistake you are making in your analysis. If you can't see the flaw, I can't help you.

I take very different viewpoint on player development which you are obviously unable to comprehend.

- Tumbleweed


Your talk of comprehension(or the lack of it) amuses me.

I like how you think you've pointed out a flaw, I correct you(in that it was actually accounted for)....and your only response back is about "other" flaws in my reasoning, though you can't be bothered to elaborate....great argument!
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 28 @ 3:51 PM ET
Your talk of comprehension(or the lack of it) amuses me.

I like how you think you've pointed out a flaw, I correct you(in that it was actually accounted for)....and your only response back is about "other" flaws in my reasoning, though you can't be bothered to elaborate....great argument!

- nikel


In presenting your analysis you highlighted the same fact twice (100% of seasons below 50 points and 0% of seasons over 50 points ) in order to present him in a more negative light. 9 guys reached 50 points during the lock-out season. Big surprise Gagner didn't do it that year.


Your statement that there were 2 seasons he missed significant games is misleading and incorrect. Fact is he played all 48 games scheduled in the lockout year. Continues your theme of spinning things in a negative way.


When using history to predict the future, use evidence that at least has a remote chance of being repeated. A 48-game nhl schedule has essentially zero chance of re-occurring next year. The fact that you are including it in your analysis the way you are in trying to predict the future is flawed. Adjust your analysis for it appropriately.


You give zero credence to the idea of players improving/progressing/developing. I don’t necessarily think that past history of an nhl players performance during their early 20’s alone is the best predictor of future results. In some cases, it is. But a lot of guys do get better into their mid-twenties and there are plenty of examples to support this. An instance of you ignoring a potential positive associated to the player in order to support your negative argument.

Your conclusion was that he is not likely to get any better based on objective evidence. You are trying to mislead in stating that you accounted for the 48 game season. Fact is you completely ignored it in your conclusion.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 29 @ 10:40 AM ET
Nice to see an indication of a financial commitment to stay in AZ long-term.

http://www.bizjournals.co...-into-arena-upgrades.html

Though, could mean higher beer prices.
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