Nothing like the irony of a David Clarkson avatar posting about what's too much to pay a player.
- 1979AD

Yeah

I agree that, for a normal team, 7-7.5 million is not a massive overpayment for Ryan. Just when you're working on a budget, and in the early-to-middle stages of a rebuild, I'm not sure that money over a very long term is a smart investment.

Then again, trading him for a limited return would be a very poor idea as well.
- Mr_Clean

I'd say we're quite firmly in the middle of a rebuild. Nothing early about it.

Most of the new core is already on the roster, just have to hope they hit their respective ceilings

i think you sort of misunderstood what i was saying. i'm not implying that toews is a "65 pt player".....however, if you just looked at his point totals, and ignored everything else (injuries, games played, etc), then he is.

has ryan dropped off a little? maybe a bit. he's not an 80pt player right now. however, that being said, he looked great at the beginning of this season, prior to getting his sports hernia. he had a rough lockout year in anaheim....but then again, so did getzlaf, so did perry. i'm not gonna judge him based off half a season where his entire team struggled to score goals. the year before that, he had 31 goals and i think 59pts.
- sensarmy_11

If you're not implying that Toews is a '65pts player', then why do you keep trying to argue that he actually is a '65pts player' - but only if you strip away any attempt to understand that number in context? You appear to be trying to somehow close the gap between him and Ryan in terms of offensive production by making Toews appear less offensively productive than he is, but that's ridiculous. I would have thought that example I gave of Karlsson during the lockout would have clarified why you can't just look at statistics that way, but apparently not.

Saying things like Ryan's "not an 80pts player right now" is similarly misleading - he's never been an 80pts player, or even particularly close. His career scoring pace is barely over 60pts/season, he's had just one year with more than 64pts scored, and he's been trending down quite a bit in the past 2 years. And before you liken his lockout season to Getzlaf's, you might want to note that Getzlaf had 49Pts in 44GP that year, and was a top-10 scorer in the NHL. As much as I want to see Ryan signed, it strains the credibility of an argument to understate the accomplishments of players like Toews and Getzlaf in the process.

But is 55-60 points worth 7-8 million a year?
- ClarksonDavid

In the new NHL... are points really the only statistic useful in determining a contract? Not puck possession, driving of play, good defensively? First of all, the overall talent should be looked at. Even if Ryan never scored a lot of points...he was overshadowed and underplayed in Ducks(sometimes even third line)and he played injured throughout last season for the sens. So you're not really looking at the best model to evaluate the player here, definitely not doing him justice. Also, if you score consistently around 30 goals + per season, you probably in the best 5%-10% goal scorers in the league. That warrants a good pay, because everyone knows good players, that just don't have the hands to finish. He's a pure finisher a pure goal scorer, you need to compare his salary to what other pure finishers are making in this league.

term doesn't make sense to me..... next 4 years he's staying in Ottawa? I hope not
- AlfieisKing

I don't get why Ottawa fans are being negative about this signing. Melnyk is actually opening up his wallet & people are still female doging?!

Robin Lehner just turned 23 guys. Managment obviosly feels he needs more time to become the #1. he just got signed to a great 3 year extension at $2.2 per. when Andys contract kicks in we'll only be spending $6.4 mill on a rising Cap for both our goalies.

Andy DOESN'T have a NTC on the new deal. he turned 33 at the start of summer & has plenty left in the tank. He can still be dealt in a package of some sort to a team in need of a #1 goalie if Lehner is lights out/clear cut #1 moving forward.

Would people honestly rather him have walked away as a UFA next summer ? & put a plug UFA goaltender in to back up lehner? that leaves to many what ifs IMO.

I like this deal

In the new NHL... are points really the only statistic useful in determining a contract? Not puck possession, driving of play, good defensively? First of all, the overall talent should be looked at. Even if Ryan never scored a lot of points...he was overshadowed and underplayed in Ducks(sometimes even third line)and he played injured throughout last season for the sens. So you're not really looking at the best model to evaluate the player here, definitely not doing him justice. Also, if you score consistently around 30 goals + per season, you probably in the best 5%-10% goal scorers in the league. That warrants a good pay, because everyone knows good players, that just don't have the hands to finish. He's a pure finisher a pure goal scorer, you need to compare his salary to what other pure finishers are making in this league.
- PtotheY

Totally agree - that's why I was suggesting a couple of weeks ago that if you account for not only goals but goal-scoring consistency, then Ryan is in pretty elite company, along with the likes of Perry, Nash, and Kessel as meaningful comparable players. And if you look at those 3 the contracts make it pretty clear...

Perry - 8yr/$69.0M ($8.6M/yr)
Kessel - 8yr/$64.0M ($8.0M/yr)
Nash - 8yr/$62.4M ($7.8M/yr)

Now Ryan might not quite be in that class overall, but his pure goal scoring numbers put him in that conversation, and there are few measures in hockey with a larger 'wow' factor than goals. Now factor in that those other contracts were all extensions and not UFA contracts, and the fact that Ryan is at least a couple of years younger than Perry and Nash, and I think it becomes clear as to why Ryan will likely get at least $7M/yr on his next contract - and maybe $8M or more if he hits the open market.

I'd say we're quite firmly in the middle of a rebuild. Nothing early about it.

Most of the new core is already on the roster, just have to hope they hit their respective ceilings
- TommyDeVito

Yes, most of the 'new core' is extremely young though. Our most veteran core member next to Ryan is 25, I'd say that's potentially early in the rebuild considering some of our presumptive future core may be 3 or 4 years away from their prime years.

Point being, we could say the rebuild is 'finished' if our core is already in place, but they could still be quite a while away from contending...

In today's NHL, yes.

In today's NHL, yes. Look at what Callahan, Dubinsky, Pouliot, Kulemin, Grabovski, etc. all signed for. Ryan is better than all of them.
- rangerdanger94

Thank you.

Totally agree - that's why I was suggesting a couple of weeks ago that if you account for not only goals but goal-scoring consistency, then Ryan is in pretty elite company, along with the likes of Perry, Nash, and Kessel as meaningful comparable players. And if you look at those 3 the contracts make it pretty clear...

Perry - 8yr/$69.0M ($8.6M/yr)
Kessel - 8yr/$64.0M ($8.0M/yr)
Nash - 8yr/$62.4M ($7.8M/yr)

Now Ryan might not quite be in that class overall, but his goal scoring puts him in that conversation - but factor in that those were all extensions and not UFA contracts, and the fact that Ryan is at least a couple of years younger than Perry and Nash, and I think it becomes clear as to why Ryan will likely get at least $7M/yr on his next contract - and maybe $8M or more if he hits the open market.
- khawk

If Ryan Doesn't want to stay in Ottawa or Melnyk won't pay market value ($7x7) then he will be traded very shortly. Managment knows the answer to both of these questions. we as fans do not, at the moment. Won't be long until we find out.

If Murray can get him signed at $7 - $7.5 x 7 or 8 Great. If not he'll be traded for a package most likely to a contending team that could really use a gifted sniper at $5.1 mill for one year in a fairly tight cap situation. We won't get back what we gave up mind you, but the return would be good. (better than the spezza package)

Totally agree - that's why I was suggesting a couple of weeks ago that if you account for not only goals but goal-scoring consistency, then Ryan is in pretty elite company, along with the likes of Perry, Nash, and Kessel as meaningful comparable players. And if you look at those 3 the contracts make it pretty clear...

Perry - 8yr/$69.0M ($8.6M/yr)
Kessel - 8yr/$64.0M ($8.0M/yr)
Nash - 8yr/$62.4M ($7.8M/yr)

Now Ryan might not quite be in that class overall, but his pure goal scoring numbers put him in that conversation, and there are few measures in hockey with a larger 'wow' factor than goals. Now factor in that those other contracts were all extensions and not UFA contracts, and the fact that Ryan is at least a couple of years younger than Perry and Nash, and I think it becomes clear as to why Ryan will likely get at least $7M/yr on his next contract - and maybe $8M or more if he hits the open market.
- khawk

Yep... That's a good analysis. Ryan is not at their level, but has the potential to maybe get there, especially if he remains on Kyle Turris' and Clarke McArthur's line. That line will make a lot of points if it remains healthy.

This is a 'meh' signing. I have no problem with the term or the dollars (especially with this team's cap space). I don't much disagree with many of the signings lately (Phillips excepted, but even then, small term/$).

BUT - for a team with a self-imposed budget, I really don't understand how they're spending this money. This team needs defense above all else, yet they're extending a pilon like Phillips, Boro, etc - but seem to refuse to look outside for help on the back end.

Why does management think they have such a good defensive corps?
Do they really believe that there will be a great improvement from the young guys?
And, most importantly, is the strategy to only sign incumbents that are willing to compromise (or, in the case of Phillips, sign WAY more than they'll ever be worth again as a player)?

I just don't understand the direction - not to say I hate it, I just don't get it. If they're going to let the young guys improve, why extend the old guys (sometimes at prices that make no sense).

A good season would be one that sees the likes of Phillips, Neil and Greening phased out. There are better replacements at a lower cost already on the roster for these guys. If there really is a budget, don't waste $10M on these guys - replace them with ~$3M worth of young guys, and spend the remaining $7 on another good defense man. When you work on a budget, resource allocation is your key to success or failure ... so, again, I don't understand the direction.

Overpayment is a dangerous word to use around a goaltender that was the best in the league two seasons ago. Just saying.
- PtotheY

I had no idea he won the Vezina!

I had no idea he won the Vezina!
- 1979AD

The voting was fixed!

he had a down year, playing behind arguably one of the worst D groups in the league. the guy has gotten serious vezina consideration in 2 of the last 5 years. In 3 years in ottawa, he's won nearly 100 games (reg season + playoffs), has an avg GAA under 2.5, and an avg sv% at around .925.

considering this deal will make him the 18th or 19th highest paid goalie in the league, it's a deal. i don't think you can name 18 or 19 better goalies.
- sensarmy_11

This is exactly why I like this deal. If Anderson plays like a top 10 or even top 15, and Lehner proves himself worthy of being a #1, you have a very tradeable asset. In the meantime, if things go the other way with Lehner, you still have Anderson. You have asset management mixed with risk management. Good deal!

I had no idea he won the Vezina!
- 1979AD

Andy wouldve walked away with it during the lockout season if he didnt get injured..

I had no idea he won the Vezina!
- 1979AD

LOL. Just like any other trophies... there are more than one nomination... the final decision can often be debated later. Anderson is not what he used to be, but to say he is overpaid now, its ridiculous and quite uneducated.

Maybe, just maybe, the cap ceiling that the Senators imposed on themselves was there specifically to pick up these extensions.

I simply cannot see a future where the Senators will not find a way to extend Methot and Ryan.

I see Methot signing, (eventually), but what about Ryan?

Will Melnyk open his checkbook?
- puckhead17

spent it all on forensics.

Totally agree - that's why I was suggesting a couple of weeks ago that if you account for not only goals but goal-scoring consistency, then Ryan is in pretty elite company, along with the likes of Perry, Nash, and Kessel as meaningful comparable players. And if you look at those 3 the contracts make it pretty clear...

Perry - 8yr/$69.0M ($8.6M/yr)
Kessel - 8yr/$64.0M ($8.0M/yr)
Nash - 8yr/$62.4M ($7.8M/yr)

Now Ryan might not quite be in that class overall, but his pure goal scoring numbers put him in that conversation, and there are few measures in hockey with a larger 'wow' factor than goals. Now factor in that those other contracts were all extensions and not UFA contracts, and the fact that Ryan is at least a couple of years younger than Perry and Nash, and I think it becomes clear as to why Ryan will likely get at least $7M/yr on his next contract - and maybe $8M or more if he hits the open market.
- khawk

and he will hit the open market. book it

Overpayment is a dangerous word to use around a goaltender that was the best in the league two seasons ago. Just saying.
- PtotheY

Ha ha! While I agree he had a good season two seasons ago, he didn't win the Vezina and he played only 24 games in a shortened 48 game season. Kind of a small sample size to dub him the best in the league.

Maybe, just maybe, the cap ceiling that the Senators imposed on themselves was there specifically to pick up these extensions.

I simply cannot see a future where the Senators will not find a way to extend Methot and Ryan.
- the_terror

Last year the Senators had an approximate share in tv revenues of $19.6m ($10m Sportsnet, $3m CBC, $6.6m NBC). These are best numbers based on a variety of reports. TV revenues this year should be well in excess of $50m ($30m TSN, $19.7m Rogers, $6.6m NBC). There are some reports that the Senators total would be $46m. but I do not think that total takes into account the invasion fees awarded Canadian teams under the Rogers deal. A straight prorate of the Rogers deal would give each NHL team about $14.4m but the adjustment based on the invasion fee (loss of local revenue) gives each Canadian team 5% of the total (around $20m). Each of the 23 US based teams get about 2.8% ($12.1m) of the Rogers payout.

Only Montreal and Toronto have larger tv revenues. My guess is TSN and Rogers are insisting that Ottawa signings reflect the level of their revenue.

If you're not implying that Toews is a '65pts player', then why do you keep trying to argue that he actually is a '65pts player' - but only if you strip away any attempt to understand that number in context? You appear to be trying to somehow close the gap between him and Ryan in terms of offensive production by making Toews appear less offensively productive than he is, but that's ridiculous. I would have thought that example I gave of Karlsson during the lockout would have clarified why you can't just look at statistics that way, but apparently not.

Saying things like Ryan's "not an 80pts player right now" is similarly misleading - he's never been an 80pts player, or even particularly close. His career scoring pace is barely over 60pts/season, he's had just one year with more than 64pts scored, and he's been trending down quite a bit in the past 2 years. And before you liken his lockout season to Getzlaf's, you might want to note that Getzlaf had 49Pts in 44GP that year, and was a top-10 scorer in the NHL. As much as I want to see Ryan signed, it strains the credibility of an argument to understate the accomplishments of players like Toews and Getzlaf in the process.
- khawk

you're clearly not getting what i'm saying, and maybe it's just me who's not communicating my point clearly.

first and foremost, i'm not comparing ryan to toews in a "he's as good as toews way"......i think toews is the best overall player in the league, and worth his new contract. i think ryan is worth about 7.5.

my post was in response to the person who said, well he just scored at a 55pt pace the last 2 years, so he's not worth 7.5. I was implying that you can't just look at his point totals, and determine his worth.

1st - ryan is a goal scorer. he's not a playmaker, he's not paid to set players up, he's paid to score. as long as his goal totals remain high (30+), then he's doing his job, and worth 7-7.5

2nd - he's averaged over 30 goals in 4 of the last 6 years, and had he not missed 12 games, and played over half the season with a hernia, he would have scored over 30 again.

3rd - yes, his production has decreased, but like i said in the previous post, this year was due to an injury. the previous year, his team struggled. yes, getzlaf had a high point total, but his goal total was low....and there's no denying that perry's and ryan's totals were way down (as was most of the team)

4th - ryan is ottawa's most offensively gifted forward, their only pure goal scorer, not to mention they paid quite a bit to get him. these are all factors that play into any new deal he signs.

5th - when glorified 3rd liners like bolland, clarkson, etc are getting over 5 mil, then ryan is worth 18 billion dollars.

that's why i used toews as an example. yes, he's better than ryan, no doubt. but if all you look at is his numbers, is he worth 10.5 million? he's the highest paid player in the NHL, in the history of professional hockey , but i don't think he's ever once cracked the top ten in scoring. like i said, i love toews, maybe my favorite non-sens player in the league, but if all you do is look at his numbers, he's probably not worth his salary.

same for ryan....if all you do is look at his point totals the last 2 years, then he's not worth 7.5, but if you look at my points above, then you can make a very good argument that he is in fact worth it.

Last year the Senators had an approximate share in tv revenues of $19.6m ($10m Sportsnet, $3m CBC, $6.6m NBC). These are best numbers based on a variety of reports. TV revenues this year should be well in excess of $50m ($30m TSN, $19.7m Rogers, $6.6m NBC). There are some reports that the Senators total would be $46m. but I do not think that total takes into account the invasion fees awarded Canadian teams under the Rogers deal. A straight prorate of the Rogers deal would give each NHL team about $14.4m but the adjustment based on the invasion fee (loss of local revenue) gives each Canadian team 5% of the total (around $20m). Each of the 23 US based teams get about 2.8% ($12.1m) of the Rogers payout.

Only Montreal and Toronto have larger tv revenues. My guess is TSN and Rogers are insisting that Ottawa signings reflect the level of their revenue.
- spatso

Yeah! What Spats said...

If Ryan Doesn't want to stay in Ottawa or Melnyk won't pay market value ($7x7) then he will be traded very shortly. Managment knows the answer to both of these questions. we as fans do not, at the moment. Won't be long until we find out.

If Murray can get him signed at $7 - $7.5 x 7 or 8 Great. If not he'll be traded for a package most likely to a contending team that could really use a gifted sniper at $5.1 mill for one year in a fairly tight cap situation. We won't get back what we gave up mind you, but the return would be good. (better than the spezza package)
- Erik6Karlsson5

My guess is 7 x 7 as well. You guys have good comparables on your team. Murray can say "Hey, Karlsson makes 6.5, you don't deserve more than 6.5." and perhaps Ryan would bite. Different CBA though, and Ryan could get ~8 at max term on the open market.

My guess is 7 x 7 as well. You guys have good comparables on your team. Murray can say "Hey, Karlsson makes 6.5, you don't deserve more than 6.5." and perhaps Ryan would bite. Different CBA though, and Ryan could get ~8 at max term on the open market.
- BetterCallSaul

I agree - weird isn't