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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Are the Draft Lottery Rule Changes Fair to the Sabres?
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grand-magus
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "...i'd say you were high on mushrooms", GMTM, NY
Joined: 06.06.2014

Aug 22 @ 5:27 AM ET
youre being blatantly dishonest, you traded away your talent to assure you are in no position to win. Ehrhoff at 4 million a year is cheap and in his prime. you bought him out just so you can lose more efficiently. without Mcdavid as the ultimate goal the sabres do not buy out ehrhoff
- joeyp



We bought him out to avoid the recapture penalty. I don't think a Christian Ehrhoff gets us 10-15 more wins, anyway.

Vanek didn't want to stay, period. Offered him over $50 million.

It was no secret that Miller wanted to play out west.

Did I miss anyone else of significance?
SabresFaninIndiana
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bananaville, IN
Joined: 12.16.2009

Aug 22 @ 6:52 AM ET
We bought him out to avoid the recapture penalty. I don't think a Christian Ehrhoff gets us 10-15 more wins, anyway.

Vanek didn't want to stay, period. Offered him over $50 million.

It was no secret that Miller wanted to play out west.

Did I miss anyone else of significance?

- grand-magus

Moulson. Oh wait they signed him back in the summer

Leino. Oh wait he sucks and we are better with Delorian than we are with him

Halak. Yeah neuvirth could be better in the long run.


Then we also got gorges and gionta. I don't see how we are blatantly tanking. Are they doing moves for the future and not now. Yes that is clear but I think this team will compete. And we could finish anywhere in the bottom 7 or so depending upon how goaltending works out
Joel_Eh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Panel member of L'Antichambre, ON
Joined: 01.26.2012

Aug 22 @ 9:33 AM ET
James you keep saying the chance of them winning the first overall selection has dropped 20% which i suppose is true as THEIR percentage has dropped by 20% of 25% (aka 5%).

However in reality they are now 5% less likely to select first overall which isn't nearly as significant. So in 100 drafts they'd lose out on the first pick 5 more times then they previously would have.
SDSabre
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.05.2014

Aug 22 @ 9:42 AM ET
James you keep saying the chance of them winning the first overall selection has dropped 20% which i suppose is true as THEIR percentage has dropped by 20% of 25% (aka 5%).

However in reality they are now 5% less likely to select first overall which isn't nearly as significant. So in 100 drafts they'd lose out on the first pick 5 more times then they previously would have.

- Joel_Eh


His math is correct, just saying it a different way. Yes, they only lose 5%, which is a 20% drop from the year prior.
Joel_Eh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Panel member of L'Antichambre, ON
Joined: 01.26.2012

Aug 22 @ 9:53 AM ET
His math is correct, just saying it a different way. Yes, they only lose 5%, which is a 20% drop from the year prior.
- SDSabre


I know - I said while technically correct it is making it sound slightly worse then it really is. Like if your chances went from 1% to 0.5% your odds dropped by 50% but its really not that big of a deal.

I'm not saying id be happy to be a sabres fan about it - but the season hasnt been played yet. If they arent trying to tank this shoudlnt be an issue anyways.
Joel_Eh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Panel member of L'Antichambre, ON
Joined: 01.26.2012

Aug 22 @ 9:54 AM ET
Moulson. Oh wait they signed him back in the summer

Leino. Oh wait he sucks and we are better with Delorian than we are with him

Halak. Yeah neuvirth could be better in the long run.


Then we also got gorges and gionta. I don't see how we are blatantly tanking. Are they doing moves for the future and not now. Yes that is clear but I think this team will compete. And we could finish anywhere in the bottom 7 or so depending upon how goaltending works out

- SabresFaninIndiana


I bet they trade most of the players they brought in at the deadline if at all possible for more picks - in which case it seems like they are signing value to trade for picks while tanking...just my opinion and if they dont trade these guys at the deadline i'm obviously wrong
gsharlow015
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.18.2009

Aug 22 @ 10:01 AM ET
You know what I'd like to see? The actually lottery itself so the viewer can actually see the ball/team being picked. I got annoyed watching Bill Daly flipping over cards...but yeah I don't mind the new draft lottery system. I think teams should be encouraged to improve their scouting and development systems, rather than just putting mediocre teams on the ice. Although, I don't believe the Murray Era is trying to tank, but the Regier Era sure the hell was!
JVR_42_PK81
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 04.20.2014

Aug 22 @ 10:12 AM ET
I think it should be like the nfl. If fans suffer through a year of their team blowing it they should atleast get some enjoyment outta the draft. I mean how bad would it be to have your favorite team be the worst in the league then they draft 4th or 8th. Itd probably turn off the casual fans.
- zdp1189


What about the Islanders? They have had a prolonged rebuild because they are better than the worst teams every year. Except when they got Johnny T they finish around 4th-7th most years. It shouldn't be the worst team every year getting the best player it's an easy way out to tank and get last place.
JVR_42_PK81
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 04.20.2014

Aug 22 @ 10:14 AM ET
I bet they trade most of the players they brought in at the deadline if at all possible for more picks - in which case it seems like they are signing value to trade for picks while tanking...just my opinion and if they dont trade these guys at the deadline i'm obviously wrong
- Joel_Eh


Halak is in for a rude awakening. I am excited to see how he does.
JVR_42_PK81
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 04.20.2014

Aug 22 @ 10:16 AM ET
Moulson. Oh wait they signed him back in the summer

Leino. Oh wait he sucks and we are better with Delorian than we are with him

Halak. Yeah neuvirth could be better in the long run.


Then we also got gorges and gionta. I don't see how we are blatantly tanking. Are they doing moves for the future and not now. Yes that is clear but I think this team will compete. And we could finish anywhere in the bottom 7 or so depending upon how goaltending works out

- SabresFaninIndiana


You guys had to get over the cap floor... That's why you guys signed some free agents.
Joel_Eh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Panel member of L'Antichambre, ON
Joined: 01.26.2012

Aug 22 @ 10:16 AM ET
Halak is in for a rude awakening. I am excited to see how he does.
- JVR_42_PK81


Halak thrives on loads of shots - i think he'll have a pretty solid year on the island. Best goaltender they've had there in a while, though that isnt saying much.

JVR_42_PK81
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 04.20.2014

Aug 22 @ 10:23 AM ET
Halak thrives on loads of shots - i think he'll have a pretty solid year on the island. Best goaltender they've had there in a while, though that isnt saying much.
- Joel_Eh


He's about to see A LOT of quality shots. Teams are not just throwing the puck at the net anymore.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 22 @ 10:40 AM ET
youre being blatantly dishonest, you traded away your talent to assure you are in no position to win. Ehrhoff at 4 million a year is cheap and in his prime. you bought him out just so you can lose more efficiently. without Mcdavid as the ultimate goal the sabres do not buy out ehrhoff
- joeyp


I know this has been covered already, but I decided to choose your post because you clearly don't have a handle on the situation of the Buffalo Sabres.

You used the word "talent". Let's begin

Vanek - Didn't want to resign, what should we do? Let him walk?
Miller - See: Vanek
Ehrhoff - Cap penalty problems, didn't want to be here. Let him rot here and play half as$?
Leino - "talent"? lol
Moulson - We rented him out for 3 months for Josh Gorges and a 2nd round pick. Clearly a terrible move by the Sabres
Pommer - See: Vanek

Am I missing anyone?

We are rebuilding through the draft, trading these old players that don't want to be on a rebuilding squad for young, high talents. God forbid we follow the rules and build the way GMTM deems fit.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Aug 22 @ 10:43 AM ET
You guys had to get over the cap floor... That's why you guys signed some free agents.
- JVR_42_PK81


Correct, yet not the true motivation.

I would bet my house that if we were only under the cap by 3-4 million, the same signings and Gorges trade would have been made. Maybe a better example would be, to prevent cap arguments, if there was no cap, in a vacuum, these signings would still exist.

They were made to offer veteran leadership to the incoming players in the next few years, which we will have a lot of. Gorges and Gionta were clear leaders on a playoff team. Moulson simply wanted to play here and will be a top scorer.
StargateSG1
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Buffalo Grove, IL
Joined: 03.07.2013

Aug 22 @ 11:05 AM ET
I think NHL needs a Wings Rule for the draft.
You make playoffs for 10 years, you get in the 1st overall pick lottery as the reward.

BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Aug 22 @ 11:11 AM ET
You know what I'd like to see? The actually lottery itself so the viewer can actually see the ball/team being picked. I got annoyed watching Bill Daly flipping over cards...but yeah I don't mind the new draft lottery system. I think teams should be encouraged to improve their scouting and development systems, rather than just putting mediocre teams on the ice. Although, I don't believe the Murray Era is trying to tank, but the Regier Era sure the hell was!
- gsharlow015


The draft lottery should be conducted an hour ahead of the draft fully visible - with the appropriate number of "ping-pong" balls" with each team's logo. No mystery then.

No more Crosby draft coincidences with Bettman giving players to franchises.
BorjeFan4Ever
Season Ticket Holder
Location: not the BigSmoke anymore
Joined: 10.29.2007

Aug 22 @ 11:13 AM ET
I think NHL needs a Wings Rule for the draft.
You make playoffs for 10 years, you get in the 1st overall pick lottery as the reward.


- StargateSG1


no no...

the Wings are so go at drafting.. they should forgo their 1st rounders and be granted a 5th or 6th rounder instead.

because every year they clearly draft their future in the 5th and 6th round.
StargateSG1
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Buffalo Grove, IL
Joined: 03.07.2013

Aug 22 @ 11:27 AM ET
no no...

the Wings are so go at drafting.. they should forgo their 1st rounders and be granted a 5th or 6th rounder instead.

because every year they clearly draft their future in the 5th and 6th round.

- BorjeFan4Ever



They certainly did in the past, but it's unlikely now.
Every team has scouts in Sweden and Russia now days.
Ukraine is worth a look thou.. :-)
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Aug 22 @ 11:52 AM ET
i thought the odds for the last place team to get the first pick only dropped 5%.

at least that's the way it was explained to me. i admit i haven't read any of the news about the changes they made though (and that i'm terrible at math!) but i was told it was a 5% difference not a 20% difference.

i'm confused now though.

- kicksave856



If you have a 25% chance of winning, and that chance is decreased to 20% then you just lost 20% (not 5%) because there are five fives in 25 and 1 in 5 is 20%.
100goalseason
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Shanghai
Joined: 01.22.2010

Aug 22 @ 11:52 AM ET
i thought the odds for the last place team to get the first pick only dropped 5%.

at least that's the way it was explained to me. i admit i haven't read any of the news about the changes they made though (and that i'm terrible at math!) but i was told it was a 5% difference not a 20% difference.

i'm confused now though.

- kicksave856


You are almost correct. The odds for the last place team to get the first overall pick have dropped 5 percentage points, not 5 percent. See the difference? It is in fact a 20% less chance of landing the first overall pick.

Hope this helps.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Aug 22 @ 11:53 AM ET
James you keep saying the chance of them winning the first overall selection has dropped 20% which i suppose is true as THEIR percentage has dropped by 20% of 25% (aka 5%).

However in reality they are now 5% less likely to select first overall which isn't nearly as significant. So in 100 drafts they'd lose out on the first pick 5 more times then they previously would have.

- Joel_Eh



Which is 20%.
James Tanner
Joined: 12.21.2013

Aug 22 @ 11:54 AM ET
I know - I said while technically correct it is making it sound slightly worse then it really is. Like if your chances went from 1% to 0.5% your odds dropped by 50% but its really not that big of a deal.

I'm not saying id be happy to be a sabres fan about it - but the season hasnt been played yet. If they arent trying to tank this shoudlnt be an issue anyways.

- Joel_Eh



It is not only technically correct, it's correct in whatever other ways there are too.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Aug 22 @ 12:19 PM ET
Cause the flyers have never been a bottom 10 team right?
- zdp1189

we were the worst one year and lost patrick kane but no worries no need to cry like buffalo
notalent
Buffalo Sabres
Location: lake placid, NY
Joined: 02.26.2011

Aug 22 @ 12:29 PM ET
The Sabres aren't tanking, they're rebuilding. Every move Tim Murray has made indicates he is building toward a Team that can compete for the Cup.

Sure, we could have Pegula shell out the cash for overpaid UFA's and spend all the way to the Salary Max. Then no one would accuse us of tanking. However, at best we would be a borderline 8-10 team in the east and saddled with bad contracts where we wouldn't be able to sign the young players we have.

We tanked abysmally last year and didn't get the 1st pick. Someone on here said we would likely finish in the bottom 7, and I think that's about right. I would bet we get around the 4th overall pick next year...that's about a 10% chance of getting McDavid.

I think the Islanders have a better chance of imploding next year given their history, their GM and their Defense.
sippyd
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Some unreal areas in the suburbs of Detroit. Buffalo, being smaller, simply doesn't have that.-Prock, NY
Joined: 09.30.2007

Aug 22 @ 12:30 PM ET
we were the worst one year and lost patrick kane but no worries no need to cry like buffalo
- 2Real


Who's crying? We would have taken Reinhart regardless.
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